Research on the Carter Method for the location of sliding surfaces based on a numerical study

Abstract

In order to investigate the potential location and magnitude of a landslide, the information regarding the location and shape of the sliding surface is important. However, obtaining such information through underground investigations is costly and time-consuming. A method proposed by Carter and Bentley (1985) provides an approach to predict the sliding surface based on ground surface information. With help of advanced techniques such as UAVs and SAR satellites, Carter’s method has been utilized in field sites of potential landslide areas recently. Geophysical surveys and drilling data are commonly used validation data, but the temporal and spatial resolutions of these data are rough and rare. For this problem, this study generated high temporal and spatial resolution data of landslide behaviour by a physically based model and these data were utilized to investigate the capability and limitations of Carter’s method. Firstly, a scenario of slope failure on a 30-degree slope was performed by a numerical model using the material point method (MPM). Next, Carter’s method was applied to predicted the sliding surface using ground surface data obtained from the MPM simulation, and the results were compared with the sliding surface data from the MPM simulation. Finally, we perform an error analysis using the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to assess the reliability of Carter’s method. The findings of this study contribute to understanding the capabilities and limitations of Carter’s method in landslide analysis and provide insights for improving landslide risk assessment and mitigation strategies.