Urban ecologists have documented the stages through which residential communities in American metropolitan areas move as they undergo physical and social deterioration. Criminologists have documented the roles of deteriorated urban neighborhoods as areas of high rates of crime and delinquency. Less is known about how neighborhoods evolve into high-crime areas. Using a developmental model, this research investigated the twenty-year histories of Los Angeles County's highest-crime-rate neighborhoods in 1970. Three distinct stages were identified: emerging, transitional, and enduring. Use of cross-sectional and time-series analyses revealed that neighborhood deterioration precedes rising crime early in the cycle but that, as neighborhoods move into the later enduring stage, rising crime rates precede further neighborhood deterioration. Among the changes signaling neighborhood deterioration and rising crime rates were a shift from single- to multiple-family dwellings, a rise in residential mobility, unrelated ...
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