Cardoso Administration Research Articles

Informational theory and the selection of "rapporteurs" in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies

This article analyzes which factors determine rapporteurship allocation for reviewing bills of law submitted by the Brazilian Executive Branch to the Chamber of Deputies. We argue that the rapporteurs’ influence lies in their position as informational agents in the preliminary review committees. Based on this theoretical proposition, we identify the reasons why the first term of the Cardoso Administration witnessed a non-negligible number of rapporteurs from the minority opposition who were designated to report on bills submitted by the Executive. The hypotheses are tested through a statistical model that estimates the number of reports on Executive bills each Deputy obtained during the 1995-98 Legislature by using original data on the characteristics of the Deputies, their parties, and the committees to which they belonged.

Teoria informacional e a seleção de relatores na Câmara dos Deputados

This article analyzes which factors determine rapporteurship allocation for reviewing bills of law submitted by the Brazilian Executive Branch to the Chamber of Deputies. We argue that the rapporteurs' influence lies in their position as informational agents in the preliminary review committees. Based on this theoretical proposition, we identify the reasons why the first term of the Cardoso Administration witnessed a non-negligible number of rapporteurs from the minority opposition who were designated to report on bills submitted by the Executive. The hypotheses are tested through a statistical model that estimates the number of reports on Executive bills each Deputy obtained during the 1995-98 Legislature by using original data on the characteristics of the Deputies, their parties, and the committees to which they belonged.

Lula's Brazil at Midterm

This article assesses the Lula government at midterm. The PT-led government has steered a surprisingly orthodox course in economics, social policy and party politics in light of the factors that led it to victory in 2002, namely, the PT's critique of the economic and social models promoted by the Cardoso administration, its reputation as untainted by corruption and clientelism, and Lula's close personal identification with the plight of the poor. While following convention has helped ensure political and economic stability, the PT's long-term contribution to democracy rests on its ability to promote meaningful social development and political reform.

Science and technology policy in transition: new challenges for Cardoso's legacy

Brazil has a well-developed scientific and technological capabilitiy within industrialising countries. However, this capability has not been translated into social development. The new Brazilian Worker's Party government considers it urgent to develop an S&T agenda oriented to the country's social development. I argue that the new government faces two types of difficulties in pursuing this goal. First, the new government's science and technology policies oppose, to a certain extent, the ideological foundations and the institutional structure of the S&T enterprise inherited from former President F.H. Cardoso's administration. Second, the Worker's Party's nationalistic development goals including building technological autonomy, have to confront the strong presence of foreign capital in hi-tech sectors and an accelerated increase in technological dependency during the last ten years.

Wenn Angst die Hoffnung besiegt

The victory of Lula and the PT in Brazilian elections in late 2002 was accompanied by the hope of a refoundation of society and freeing Brazil out of the ‘external trap’. The Lula-government argued that Brazil is on the brink of an abyss so that hard measures, like high interest rates and austerity policy are necessary. The article shows, that it were not the constraints of the economic situation but the decision of the government (trying to avoid conflicts with the forces of national and international capital) to continue the neoliberal politics of the former Cardoso administration.

O Brasil e a ALCA: um estudo a partir da Argentina

A proposta da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA), lançada por George Bush (pai), e seu novo impulso, dado por Clinton, foram recebidos com muita cautela no Brasil. A partir de 1990, o governo Collor de Mello, diante do esgotamento do modelo de desenvolvimento interno baseado na substituição de importações, pleiteou uma recomposição da política externa adaptada ao novo projeto. Desse modo, iniciou-se a abertura paulatina do mercado interno, acompanhada de um incremento nas importações superior ao das exportações. Nesse contexto, o Brasil propôs a liberalização do comércio internacional em bases recíprocas. No presente trabalho, e tendo como marco de referência o projeto ALCA, identificam-se no Brasil posturas favoráveis e contrárias ao mesmo, que resumem os inúmeros debates em torno da melhor forma de se defender os interesses nacionais brasileiros: privilegiar a ALCA ou o Mercosul?; a negociação via acordos bilaterais ou conjunta com os sócios do Mercosul, via Acordos 4+1?; o recomeço do Mercosul e a concretização de acordos com a União Européia ou a busca de novas parcerias (associações) no sistema internacional? Em seguida, consideram-se as posições assumidas pelas administrações de Fernando Collor de Mello, Itamar Franco e Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Por último, analisa-se a atitude assumida pelo governo de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva diante do projeto de integração continental em seus primeiros onze meses de governo (janeiro-dezembro de 2003).

Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Cardoso's Brazil, 1995-2002

We look into Brazil`s public sector accounts during the two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso: 1995-98 and 1998-2002. We underline the fact that the authorities` attitude was as important as the pace of the structural reforms for understanding the dynamics of the public sector debt and deficit. The high deficit of the first administration (1995-98) resulted from an expansionary policy, while the adjustment of 1999 is seen as proof of a commitment to fiscal rigor and the need to finance public spending adequately. We present a detailed breakdown of the fiscal outcomes. Two important messages come out: (a) the principal cause of the fiscal deterioration in the first Cardoso administration was the deterioration in the primary balance rather than the increase in the interest payments on public debt; and (b) the fiscal adjustment was entirely on account of increased revenues, as the federal primary public expenditure grew in real terms during the eight years of the two administrations. We consider the outlook for fiscal sustainability, and conclude that, to preserve the hard-won fiscal discipline, the authorities` recent austere fiscal attitude should be permanently embedded into the fiscal institutions.

O segundo consenso de Washington e a quase-estagnação da economia brasileira

RESUMO Enquanto nos aspectos éticos e sociais o governo Cardoso (1995-2002) foi bem-sucedido, seus resultados econômicos foram frustrantes. Nesses oito anos, a taxa de investimento não aumentou e a renda per capita diminuiu, enquanto as dívidas pública e estrangeira aumentaram substancialmente. Esse fraco desempenho econômico pode ser explicado por três causas encadeadas: um erro na definição da agenda, a adoção do Segundo Consenso de Washington e a alienação das elites. A decisão de definir a inflação alta como o principal problema a ser enfrentado, em vez de alcançar o equilíbrio em contas estrangeiras, representou um grande erro macroeconômico, o que pode ser explicado pelo Segundo Consenso de Washington. Esse consenso propôs na década de 1990 que os países altamente endividados deveriam crescer contando com a poupança externa, embora essa não seja a experiência entre os países da OCDE. O resultado foi avaliar o real, o aumento artificial dos salários e do consumo, de modo que, em vez de crescimento, aumentamos o endividamento. Por que essa estratégia foi adotada? Os interesses dos países ricos não são difíceis de adivinhar. Por parte do Brasil, a única explicação é a alienação das elites brasileiras em relação ao interesse nacional do país. Como resultado final, o governo Cardoso termina com outra crise na balança de pagamentos.

Fiscal Straitjacket: The Politics of Macroeconomic Reform in Brazil, 1995–2002

Brazil's President Fernando Henrique Cardoso will be remembered for his administration's accomplishments as well as the problems his government left unresolved. On the one hand, fiscal policy represents one of Cardoso's success stories: the Plano Real curbed inflation, established economic stability, and enabled the central government to rein in subnational governments' out-of-control spending patterns, which had been a key source of macroeconomic instability. However, the question remains whether Brazil can truly escape from the political and economic consequences of past fiscal profligacy. Despite many successes, Cardoso's own policies have created additional obstacles that future administrations will necessarily confront, in particular a dramatic increase in Brazil's internal debt. Observers of Brazil should count both sides of the accounting ledger when evaluating the Cardoso administration. Much has been gained, but the costs of those gains must be recognised and the impact of those gains on the range of policy choice available to future administrations understood. This article explores the factors that contributed to Brazil's macroeconomic difficulties prior to 1995, and then explores how the Plano Real provided the Cardoso administration with leverage to constrain the capacity of subnational actors to affect Brazil's economy. Subsequently, however, the paper describes how the Cardoso administration's policies have created Brazil's current ‘fiscal straitjacket’, and concludes by discussing how Cardoso's policies will constrain future administrations.

Educação básica no Brasil na década de 1990: subordinação ativa e consentida à lógica do mercado

Este trabalho, apoiado no esforço de análises de pesquisadores e intelectuais que não declinaram do pensamento utópico e, portanto, do esforço de produção de um pensamento crítico a todas as formas de colonialismo, discute a política de educação básica nos dois mandatos do Governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso. A conclusão a que chegamos é a de que a "era FHC" neste particular, também, foi um retrocesso tanto no plano institucional e organizativo quanto, e particularmente, no âmbito pedagógico. Esta conclusão se fundamenta, primeiramente, na análise do tipo de projeto social mais amplo e do projeto educativo a ele articulado, ambos associados de forma ativa, consentida e subordinada aos organismos internacionais. No plano mais específico fundamenta-se na relevância da educação básica à luz das questões mais gerais postas à educação por um mundo em transformação e às políticas educacionais em relação à Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação Nacional e ao Conselho Nacional de Educação, ao Plano Nacional de Educação, ao ensino fundamental e aos Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais e à reforma do ensino médio e técnico.

A economia política da reforma macroeconômica no Brasil, 1995-2002

This article examines the successes and limits of the macroeconomic and fiscal reforms under the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration in Brazil. The author begins by studying factors that contributed to macroeconomic difficulties prior to 1995, then proceeds to examine how the Real Plan enabled the Cardoso Administration to control interference by State Governors in the national economy. The article then describes how former President Cardoso's policies generated the current ''fiscal straitjacket'' in Brazil, and concludes by discussing how the Cardoso government's legacy may continue to constrain action by future Brazilian Administrations.

Brazil's Agrarian Reform: Democratic Innovation or Oligarchic Exclusion Redux?

AbstractThe government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–2002) redistributed a surprising amount of land to Brazil's landless. Assessing that reform, this study argues that an adequate appreciation of land redistribution must transcend the debate about the number of beneficiaries and place the reform in the larger context of state policies toward land and agriculture. It then asks to what extent such policies under Cardoso represented the dismantling of past state practices in the countryside. Although the Cardoso administration enacted some significant and democratizing changes, it missed other opportunities to benefit the rural poor, and its policies essentially maintained the agricultural model of the past two decades.

Financiamento da educação no Brasil: um balanço do Governo FHC (1995-2002)

O artigo busca fazer uma análise das principais medidas tomadas no Governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso com reflexos no financiamento da educação. Constata-se que, no período, aproveitando-se da hegemonia obtida no Congresso pela coalizão de centro-direita por ele articulada, foram aprovadas várias leis com forte impacto no financiamento da educação, tais como a LDB (Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação Nacional), o FUNDEF (Fundo de Manutenção e Desenvolvimento do Ensino Fundamental e de Valorização do Magistério) e o Plano Nacional de Educação. Entende-se que a diretriz mestra adotada por este governo para o setor foi a de que os recursos já existentes são suficientes, cabendo apenas otimizar a sua utilização. Conclui-se afirmando que este governo será lembrado como aquele que gastou 4% do PIB com ensino e 8% do PIB com juros e encargos da dívida pública.

Partidos e Comissões no Presidencialismo de Coalizão

This article argues that the Brazilian President’s lawmaking powers, especially related to budget-making, crucially modify the incentives for more or less cooperative behavior among House members vis-a-vis their respective party representations in Congress, comparing the two democratic periods in Brazil: 1946-64 and post-1988. During the former period, given the President’s reduced agenda powers, Congress had greater freedom to define its approach to the President’s policy program without running the risk of retaliation in the form of lost patronage and budget resources. During the post-1988 period, since budget-making initiative is concentrated in the hands of the Executive Branch, the President’s bargaining power has expanded, requiring Congress to organize in more disciplined parties in order to more efficiently pressure the Administration to comply with agreements for mutual support. The study’s empirical section begins by identifying the pattern of coalitions that allowed for the developmentalist project in the 1950s as contrasted with the partisan coalition pattern that approved the constitutional reforms during the Cardoso Administration. The second section analyzes the parties’ policies towards the composition of crucial standing committees, demonstrating the impact of party loyalty on obtaining seats in the Committee on the Constitution and the Judiciary and the Committee on Finances and Taxation. The impact of party loyalty was significant in the former period and non-significant in the latter.

Decentralizing Democracy: Spain and Brazil in Comparative Perspective

Does decentralization of the state enhance democratic rule?' Does democratization make decentralization more manageable? The key intervening variable governing decentralization with democratization is the coherence of the central state. Following a path-dependent logic, studies of democratization argue that an array of factors present in society, that is, in the domain of political parties and parliamentary alliances, determines the coherence of the central state.2 The stronger political society is, and the greater the coherence of central authority is, then the more likely it will be that decentralization and democratization will reinforce each other. According to this argument, Spain's well-developed political society played a key role in enhancing national authority by controlling the content and pace of state reform and regime change. In Brazil these factors were anemic or missing, thereby weakening the state in ways that allowed decentralization to endanger democracy. The emphasis on political society in studies of democratization favors static factors that fail to account for the dynamic character of decentralization and democratization. The relationship between decentralization and democratization in Spain and Brazil was shaped by intergovernmental conflicts that were never fully under the control of either national states or political society. In both cases these conflicts challenged institutional arrangements in political society that studies of democratization credit with enhancing state cohesion. Efforts to resolve the conflicts in both countries depended upon ad hoc and transitory measures that were not imposed by a coherent national state. These dynamics challenged the Spanish central government's ability to govern the expanding authorities of the regions, exacerbating emerging divisions within the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Obrera Espanol, PSOE). In Brazil runaway spending by the states was impeded by a partial reequilibration of authority and resources in the central state during Fernando Henrique Cardoso's administration (1995-present). Explanation of these dynamics requires a focus on the bargaining process among levels of government. This process is mediated by two factors: the open-endedness of institutions governing the distribution of intergovernmental authorities and resources and the political leverage wielded by central and subnational governments. Where federal institutions are open-ended, subnational governments are more likely

Disciplina partidária e base parlamentar na Câmara dos Deputados no primeiro governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-1998)

This article analyzes the activity of the political parties in the Brazilian House of Representatives during the first Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration (1995-98). The main source of data is the result of head-count votes. Three aspects are emphasized: the degree of party discipline; the parties’ rate of support for bills sponsored by the Administration; and the impact of maverick voting and absenteeism on the voting results. The link between the two dimensions treated separately by the literature (party discipline and party support for the Administration) shows that the strategy of evaluating Presidential power simply by counting the members of Representatives formally belonging to the Executive’s constituency should be done with caution in countries with undisciplined parties and high absenteeism during head-count votes.

The Brazilian devaluation: national responses and international consequences

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 reached Latin America the following year. The Brazilian devaluation in January 1999 demonstrated the vulnerability of Latin America's largest economy to external shocks, but it was also a consequence of fiscal imbalance. This article explores the background to the devaluation and explains the circumstances under which it might lead to an improvement in economic performance. The article then examines the impact of the devaluation on Brazil's neighbours in MERCOSUL, particularly Argentina. It also considers the lessons of the Brazilian devaluation in the context of attempts to reform the global financial architecture and in the light of the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. The main conclusion is that the impact of the devaluation will be felt most strongly in Brazil and that a successful outcome will require economic and political reforms over and above those already adopted by the Cardoso administration.

A política externa do governo FHC: continuidade e renovação

O Governo do Presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso deu seguimento a uma linha de conduta que, ao longo do tempo, tem feito da política externa brasileira um fator de credibilidade para o País. O Presidente agregou, no entanto, a confiabilidade e atratividade que decorrem do êxito do Plano Real, a qualidade de sua liderança e o peso de seu envolvimento pessoal na atividade diplomática, além do compromisso com os valores e ideais - democracia, direitos humanos, justiça social, preservação do meio ambiente - dominantes neste momento da história mundial.

Restaurando a Governabilidade: O Brasil (afinal) se Acertou?

The article aims to link recent changes in Brazil's political and economic situation with the question of governance in a democratic setting. It shows that a set of policies are only as good as the political support which enables their implementation. As memories of the economic nightmare of the past decade fade and the costs of sustaining price stability through needed budget cuts continue to be felt, popular dissatisfaction with reform is bound to increase. The Cardoso Administration's incremental strategy of state reform and its step-by-step approach to crucial human rights issues reflect the conflicting pressures the government must balance in order to make policy advances. As democratization increases the autonomous representation of societal interests and the structure of Brazilian politics continues to erect legislative obstacles, incrementalism seems the most appropriate pace for producing real, long-lasting reform.