Detecting atrial fibrillation (AF) after stroke is a key component of secondary prevention, but indiscriminate prolonged cardiac monitoring is costly and burdensome. Multivariable prediction models could be used to inform patient selection. To determine the performance of available models for predicting AF after a stroke. We searched for studies of multivariable models that were derived, validated and/or augmented for prediction of AF in patients with a stroke, using Medline and Embase from inception through 20/09/2024. Discrimination measures for tools with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). The risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias tool (PROBAST). We included 75 studies with 58 prediction models. 66% had a high risk of bias. Fifteen multivariable models were eligible for meta-analysis. Three models showed excellent discrimination: SAFE (c-statistic 0.856, 95% CI 0.796-0.916), SURF (0.815, 95% CI 0.728-0.893), and iPAB (0.888, 95% CI 0.824-0.957). Excluding high-bias studies, only SAFE showed excellent discrimination (0.856, 95% CI 0.800-0.915). No model showed excellent discrimination when limited to external validation or studies with ≥100 AF events. No clinical impact studies were found. Three of the fifty-eight identified multivariable prediction models for AF after stroke demonstrated excellent statistical performance on meta-analysis. However, prospective validation is required to understand the effectiveness of these models in clinical practice before they can be recommended for inclusion in clinical guidelines.
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