Carbon-intensive Fossil Fuels Research Articles

The Prodigious Need for Fueling South Asian Economies through Sustainable Energies

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world during the last two decades. This growth momentum has been fuelled by carbon-intensive fossil fuels as reflected through the expansion in fossil fuel utilization in the total energy mix of 60.5 per cent on average for the period 1996-2000 to 70.3 per cent by 2011-2015. Against this backdrop, the study intended to identify the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in South Asia to recognize the feasibility of promoting low-carbon economic progress in the future. The study employed annual data for the period from 1971-2014 for five selected South Asian countries. The unit root test results indicate that all the variables are stationary at their first difference and the four statistics of the Pedroni cointegration test indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The FMOLS estimator implies the significance of the energy consumption in economic growth in the region where one per cent increase in energy consumption leads to a 0.78 per cent increase in economic growth. The study finds a strong bi-directional relationship between the core variables which illustrates the necessity to shift towards sustainable energy sources to achieve an undisrupted economic expansion with a minimum carbon footprint. Thus, the study lays the foundations to identify the aforementioned relationships and encourage the derive of sustainable energy solutions to fuel the growth in the region.

Guest Editorial: How To Leverage E&P Expertise for the New Energy Economy

_ The term “new energy economy” broadly refers to the transition to a low-carbon future for sustaining human development while reducing CO2 emissions. Such a shift is considered to be the third energy transition of the modern era, after the shift from biomass to coal as the primary source of energy in the early 1900s, followed by oil overtaking coal’s dominant position in the 1960s–1970s. This trend towards decarbonization (i.e., diversification from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to sustainable greener energy feedstocks and carriers) is motivated by the understanding that emissions need to be reduced to moderate the potential impacts of global temperature rise on future climatic changes. Strategies common to proposed decarbonization pathways include - Improving energy efficiency (i.e., slower increase in energy demand compared to GDP/population increase). - Increasing energy supply from renewable sources (i.e., wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear) coupled with hydrogen underground storage (HUS) as a way of storing surplus electrical energy. - Switching to low-carbon energy carriers (i.e., hydrogen) for end-use applications in transportation, buildings, and industry. - Removing carbon emissions, via carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), from fossil-fuel-fired power plants and hard-to-abate industrial sources. The key takeaway for readers is how the two subsurface-oriented decarbonization strategies—CCUS and HUS—are relevant for application/adaptation of expertise from the exploration and production (E&P) sector of the oil and gas industry. Their rise will be built upon decades of experience with CO2-EOR, gas injection, produced-water disposal, and underground natural gas storage (NGS). Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) As shown in Fig. 1, CCUS involves capturing CO2 from a fossil-fuel-fired power plant or industrial facility and processing it to a practically pure form, transporting it to a nearby geologic storage site using pipelines, and injecting it into saline aquifers for long-term sequestration or depleted oil/gas fields for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and associated storage. Research and field demonstration projects over the past few decades have demonstrated that CCUS is a viable technology for curtailing atmospheric CO2 emissions buildup. Some of the key elements of CCUS projects and their overlap with corresponding E&P expertise are summarized below.

Reducing solar PV curtailment through demand-side management and economic dispatch in Karnataka, India

India has set 2070 as the target year to achieve carbon neutrality, while carbon-intensive fossil fuels are still dominating its energy system. In the next five decades, economically optimized energy transition towards renewables is crucial for India to reduce CO2 emissions in an affordable manner. India has installed a large fleet of solar PV, and thus, maximizing their capacity factors plays an influential role in energy transition. This study examines how the state of Karnataka managed to enhance solar PV capacity factor by two-thirds with substantially reduced curtailment from 2017 to 2019. We built, calibrated, and validated a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model with detailed hourly data to quantify the impacts of two major policy changes, being shifting electricity consumption of irrigation from night-time to daytime (load shift) and dispatching electricity generation units by their merit order (economic dispatch). Our results indicate that these two measures could explain about 20% and 70% of the capacity factor increase, respectively, which is equivalent to reducing the cost of solar electricity by about 40%. India and other countries may further expand these policies for accelerating and optimizing energy transition.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessment of Photovoltaic System in Indonesia

Climate crisis is arguably the biggest challenge that the world is currently facing. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent while the continuous rise in sea level is putting billions of lives will be at risk. Solving the climate crisis requires global carbon emission to peak by 2025, which means that carbon-intensive fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon renewable sources in fulfilling our energy needs. Solar energy, due to its abundance, rapidly decreasing cost, and low carbon emission, is one of the most promising energy sources. Many studies have calculated and compared the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems with conventional fuel generation. Nevertheless, the life cycle GHG emission values are affected by many location- and technology-dependent factors. This work provides an up-to-date and realistic assessment of the life cycle GHG emission for PV systems in Indonesia through thorough literature review and harmonization according to Indonesian parameters. The study shows that PV GHG emission of 37.3-64.3 gCO2eq/kWh are much lower than the current emission intensity of the Indonesian power sector. By fulfilling rising electricity demand using PV, up to 654 MtCO2eq can be avoided annually by 2050.

Greenhouse Gas Savings Potential under Repowering of Onshore Wind Turbines and Climate Change: A Case Study from Germany

Wind energy is crucial in German energy and climate strategies as it substitutes carbon-intensive fossil fuels and achieves substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. However, wind energy deployment currently faces several problems: low expansion rates, wind turbines at the end of their service life, or the end of remuneration. Repowering is a vital strategy to overcome these problems. This study investigates future annual GHG payback times and emission savings of repowered wind turbines. In total, 96 repowering scenarios covering a broad range of climatological, technical, economic, and political factors affecting wind energy output in 2025–2049 were studied. The results indicate that due to more giant wind turbines and geographical restrictions, the amount of repowerable sites is reduced significantly. Consequently, in most scenarios, emission savings will dramatically diminish compared to current savings. Even in the best-case scenario, the highest emission savings’ growth is at 11%. The most meaningful drivers of GHG payback time and emission savings are wind turbine type, geographical restrictions, and GHG emissions. In contrast, climate change impact on the wind resource is only marginal. Although repowering alone is insufficient for achieving climate targets, it is a substantial part of the wind energy strategy. It could be improved by the synergies of different measures presented in this study. The results emphasize that a massive expansion of wind energy is required to establish it as a cornerstone of the future energy mix.

The energy transition, Trump energy agenda and COVID-19

Market participants and public policy makers around the world are working hard, attempting to move the world away from the use of carbon-intensive fossil fuels and towards the adoption of viable renewable energy sources. The Trump energy plan supports the production of fossil fuels by reversing this progress. The COVID-19 and the resulting lockdown measures come to worsen the situation by causing a noticeable disruption across the fossil fuel and renewable energy industries. Given these developments, this study seeks to address how and to what extent the Trump energy agenda is rolling back the plans for advancing renewable energy, and how the pandemic is changing the pace of energy transition. For this purpose, we compare the performances of renewable energy and fossil fuels in terms of volatility, efficiency and diversifications benefits for three different periods with varying-uncertainty levels, namely the pre- and the post- Trump’s inauguration periods and the period of rising anxiety over COVID-19. Our results reveal that in the period after the Trump inauguration, coal and oil (renewable energy) have become less (more) volatile but are relatively more (less) responsive to good news. The conditions however became worse with the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 adversely affects investment in oil, coal and renewable energy stock markets, though with varying levels. This virus persists to strongly hit fossil fuels demand because of the stringent containment measures. It also poses a huge threat to the timely deployment of renewables and their contributions to the renewable energy progress. These findings have relevant implications for risk management and policy designs.

Sustainable electricity generation: the possibility of substituting fossil fuels for hydropower and solar energy in Italy

ABSTRACT Electricity remains the most important form of end-use energy consumption and an important factor for economic growth and development. However, electricity generation also constitutes a great source of concern for global warming and climate change with threats to sustainable development as fossil fuels dominate electricity generation fuel mix for most economies of the world. This is exactly the case for Italy with fossil fuels dominating electricity generation fuel mix over the last couple of decades. Thus, there is a need to reverse this trend by increasing the shares of renewable energy sources in the fuel mix. This study, therefore, investigates the potentials for renewable energy sources of hydropower and solar energy to substitute the fossil fuels of coal and natural gas in electricity generation for Italy. Adopting the ridge regression procedure to obtain the parameter estimates, the results provide evidence that substitution is possible among all fuels. While both hydropower and solar energy are found to be substitutable for the fossil fuels, solar energy is found to provide more substitutability than hydropower. This implies that Italy has the potential to gradually move away from the carbon-intensive fossil fuels of coal and gas to more environmental-friendly solar energy and hydropower in the process of generating electricity.

A multi-scale energy systems engineering approach towards integrated multi-product network optimization

21st century energy production, conversion, and delivery systems need to go through a transition to be less carbon-intensive while meeting an increasing energy demand. In a more and more interconnected world, energy systems of various sectors (e.g. power, fuels, chemicals, etc.) go through this transition via shifting the primary energy sources from carbon-intensive fossil-fuels to renewable and sustainable resources. With this study, we present a multi-scale strategy for optimal design and operation of multi-product process systems that can produce power, synthetic fuels, chemicals, and energy carriers from renewable and fossil resources. This multi-scale approach combines process synthesis, scheduling, and supply chain concepts in a mixed-integer linear programming model to address the trade-offs between integrating various fossil and renewable technologies. Our strategy is applied to integration of low-emission (i) synthetic liquid transportation fuels, (ii) hydrogen, (iii) ammonia, (iv) methanol, and (v) renewable power production from natural gas, solar, and wind energy at a location in Amarillo, Texas. Case study results show that with our approach various energy systems can be modeled either separately and integrated with the same common representation. Sectors integration to produce low-emission products in the same facility can result in 17% reduction in total production costs. While solar and wind energy are favorable to produce renewable power, current state-of-the-art methane conversion technologies are more favorable to produce hydrogen and hydrogen-based products.

Can MENA extractive industries support the global energy transition? Current opportunities and future directions

Endowed with half of the world's known oil and gas reserves, as well as a significant deposit of mineral resources, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has perennially accounted for a significant portion of global extractives resource production and supply, catalysing significant economic activity in several low to middle income MENA societies. However, the last decade has seen a growing transition away from carbon intensive fossil fuels across the world. Several studies have focused on how the global energy transition could pose significant threats to sustained economic prosperity and development in MENA extractive industries and society. In contrast, this article examines how extractive industries in the MENA region can play crucial roles in the global energy transition. By leveraging their comparative advantages in environmentally preferable products, such as natural gas; investing in cleaner production methods; promoting investments in low carbon energy infrastructure projects; and ensuring greater institutional coordination in the implementation of low carbon and renewable energy policies, MENA countries can play significant roles in advancing global energy transition and security.

Can we equitably manage the end of the fossil fuel era?

This paper tracks the development of climate justice discourse around leaving fossil fuels in the ground. It then looks forward to the questions of equity that calls for the decline of fossil fuel production raise. It argues, following the Lofoten Declaration for a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production around the World, that global distributive justice requires rich countries, who have benefited the most from fossil fuel extraction, and who have most alternative available development pathways must lead in leaving fossil fuels in the ground. However, the paper shows that equitably managing the end of the fossil fuel era is complicated by how economic efficiency or the interests of frontline communities might at times diverge from global distributive justice. In response, the paper argues that a useful short-term strategy is to focus on how equity and economic efficiency both suggest that wealthy historically polluting countries should leave high-cost, carbon-intensive fossil fuels in the ground. Beyond that, the paper highlights how difficult questions and trade-offs emerge at points where considerations of equity and economic efficiency diverge. Such points of divergence represent a considerable challenge for advocates of an equitable decline of fossil fuel production, and are areas of significant interest for future research and advocacy.

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

Addressing Climate Change Without Legislation - Volume 1: DOI

Addressing Climate Change Without Legislation - Volume 1: DOI

Climate effects of bioenergy from forest residues in comparison to fossil energy

Forest residues can be left at the harvest site to gradually decompose, or can be collected for energy purposes. This study analyzes the primary energy and climate impacts of bioenergy systems where forest residues are collected and used for electricity, heat and transportation, compared to fossil-based energy systems where fossil fuels provide the same services while forest residues are left on site to decompose. Time profiles are elaborated of primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from various energy applications fulfilled by bioenergy or fossil energy systems. Different biological decay functions are considered based on process-based modeling and inventory data across various climate zones. For all scenarios, the changes in cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) are calculated over a 300-year period, to evaluate the short- and long-term contributions of forest residue to climate change mitigation. A life cycle perspective along the full energy chains is used to evaluate the overall effectiveness of each system. The results show largest primary energy and climate benefits when forest residues are collected and used efficiently for energy services. Using biomass to substitute fossil coal provides greater climate change mitigation benefits than substituting oil or fossil gas. Some bioenergy substitutions result in positive CRF, i.e. increased global warming, during an initial period. This occurs for relatively inefficient bioenergy conversion pathways to substitute less carbon intensive fossil fuels, e.g. biomotor fuel used to replace diesel. More beneficial bioenergy substitutions, such as efficiently replacing coal, result immediately in reduced CRF. Biomass decay rates and transportation distance have less influence on climate benefits.

What Should China and India Do to Cooperate Globally in Energy Policies?

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China and India are the two game-changers of global energy markets. China is already the largest energy consumer in the world and India the third after the US. They account for more than a quarter of the current global energy demand and will increase to a third by 2035, sharing about half of the global demand growth. The two countries’ energy policies will have a significant influence on the global energy markets. This is particularly true for sectors like coal, oil and nuclear energy because the growth of China and India’s demands combined in these sectors amount to more than 70% of the world’s demand growth. Due to a heavier use of carbon intensive fossil fuels like coal and oil, China and India will share about 80% of the increase in the world’s CO2 emissions between now and 2035.

The Carbon Benefits of Fuels and Forests

The Policy Forum “Carbon mitigation by biofuels or by saving and restoring forests?” by R. Righelato and D. V. Spracklen (17 August, p. 902) provides limited perspective as a result of a single, relatively short time horizon and a limited consideration of the options available. Righelato and Spracklen conclude that the carbon sequestered by saving or restoring forest is greater than the emissions avoided by the use of the liquid biofuels. Although they may be correct given current technology, the case studies they analyzed, and a 30-year time horizon, their conclusion is dependent on site, technology, and time, and it does not apply to biomass used for direct combustion or gasification. Marland and Schlamadinger (1) showed that the carbon balance between restoring forests and producing biofuels is site-specific and depends on biomass productivity, the efficiency with which harvested material is used, the initial state of the surface vegetation, and the fossil fuel to be displaced. When forest products are used efficiently to displace carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and when productivity is high, sustainable harvest yields the greater carbon benefit, especially over a longer time period. Current-technology liquid biofuels represent low-efficiency conversion of harvest to energy, but direct combustion or gasification is more efficient at displacing carbon from fossil fuels. Righelato and Spracklen show that, over 30 years, even producing diesel fuel from woody biomass can begin to look “compatible” to reforesting temperate cropland. As we wrote in 1997, “there is not a one-size-fits-all strategy for optimal management of all land available for forest management to mitigate CO2 emissions” (1). However, in many circumstances, biomass can produce greater carbon benefit than saving or restoring forests.