Carbon Emission Reduction Policies Research Articles

Examining the impact of carbon constraints on the capital structure of Chinese power enterprises

China’s power system will face more constraints of the carbon emission reduction policy under the goal of “double carbon”, it is particularly important to study the impact of carbon constraints on the capital structure of power enterprises. Commencing the viewpoint of static and dynamic, this research regards the implementation of China’s carbon pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using DID method, sys-GMM model and some robustness tests to examine how the carbon constraint affects the capital structure of power companies from 2008 to 2020. The empirical results show that the financial leverage is significantly reduced after the implementation of China’s carbon pilot policy. Moreover, the mandatory implementation of carbon emission trading mechanism makes heavy emission enterprises such as power enterprises face greater pressure on emission reduction, resulting in an increase in the risk of financial distress, reducing debt financing and equity financing of power enterprises, which promotes enterprises to decrease financial leverage. In addition, the article verifies another possibility, the enhancement of carbon constraints leads to the reduction of carbon-intensive investment rather than the increase of financial distress risk, so as to reduce the asset-liability ratio. However, the coefficient of interactive items is not significant. Further analysis indicates that the decline of financial leverage is unlikely to be caused by changes in investment.

Green investment and e-commerce sales mode selection strategies with cap-and-trade regulation

The development of e-commerce economy and the upgrading of ecological consumption demand are stimulating more consumers to pursue green products through e-commerce platforms. This paper theoretically studies the green investment strategy of the e-commerce company (ECC) and the interaction between this strategy and the e-commerce sales mode selection strategy of supply chain members from the perspective of profit maximization. We examine a dual-channel supply chain consisting of an e-commerce company (ECC) and a manufacturer of green products. The ECC has two green investment strategies: invests in green promotion services or not. This study examines the influence of green investment strategy on the ecological governance efficiency of carbon emission reduction policy and consumer market through four scenarios, based on the government’s cap-and-trade mechanism, and using Stackelberg game structures. A computational analysis of the case study reveals that participation of the ECC in green investment is more beneficial to the overall profits of the supply chain and more environmentally friendly. In the self-run sales mode, ECC’s participation in green investment is better for both profits and the environment, while the green investment behavior of the ECC is not always beneficial to the manufacturer. Only if the manufacturer is the weaker party or has the cost advantage, the manufacturer tends to choose the platform sales mode. Otherwise, the manufacturer tends to choose reseller sales mode. In platform sales mode, green investment behavior of the ECC is beneficial to the environment, the manufacturer’s profit and the whole system, but only when the manufacturer’s marketing ability is strong, the ECC can benefit from this green investment.

The Difficulties and Solutions of Terminal Consumption underthe Goal of "Double Carbon" in Realizing Carbon Neutrality Approach—Take Household Consumption as an Example

With the change of social economy, industrial structure and cultural background, China has realized that in order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (the "double carbon" goal), end-consumption behavior has gradually become an important factor affecting carbon emission reduction. Based on the analysis of the necessity of carbon emission reduction research in end-consumption behaviors, this paper mainly refers to some data in the report "Carbon Drag -- Analysis of Low-carbon Potential of Large Urban Residents Consumption" published by Urban Carbon Peak International Cooperation Platform. This paper analyzes the current situation of "carbon consumption" in end-consumption behavior and its carbon emission reduction potential from the five aspects of residents' clothing, food, housing, transportation and use, and discusses the problems affecting carbon emission reduction in end-consumption behavior. It is found that residents' low carbon awareness in some fields is weak, and there is resistance to the implementation of green low-carbon behavior. On this basis, this paper provides suggestions on related issues: government enterprises and the public need to work together to improve residents' awareness, increase production quantity at the supply side and improve carbon emission reduction policies.

Measurement of carbon emission impact factors and the choice of mitigation instruments: A review

Cutting-edge economics research is currently centered on and heated by concerns connected to reducing carbon emissions globally. China's carbon emission reduction policy plays a crucial role in addressing international climate change, controlling domestic environmental pollution, and achieving early peaking of carbon and carbon neutrality. This article reviews and compares research on the measurement of impact factors of carbon emissions and the selection of emission reduction tools. The first answers the question of what affects carbon emissions and the second answers the question of how to effectively achieve carbon emission reduction. By comparing the differences between various methods of decomposition of carbon emission impact factors and various abatement tools in terms of abatement effectiveness, abatement costs, and resistance to implementation, this article provides recommendations for the launch and operation of a national carbon emission market, which is of great significance. This article will provide a basis for timely adjustment of policy design in China and theoretical support for the government to select and develop carbon emission reduction instruments.

Financial roles in green investment based on the quantile connectedness

Green finance is critical to promoting carbon neutralisation and is an essential part of the carbon emission reduction policy framework. This paper applies quantile connectedness to analyze the overall situation and dynamic evolution of information spillover in the green and grey financial markets system and the financial roles in coordinating clean and traditional fossil fuels. The results show that fossil fuel is the primary source of risk in the information network, and their fluctuations have intensified the risk spillover effects in the system. The spillover level is more prominent in extreme cases, which means the information linkage in the system is integrated. The spillover effects of each variable fluctuate with time. In addition, green assets can be treated as a risk diversifier against fossil fuel investment shocks due to the weak connectedness in the average market. The risk infection path can provide a reference for governments to prevent the risk of infection in financial markets and guide the sustainability of the green investment.

The Effect of Air Pollution Control Auditing on Reducing Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China.

Analyzing the carbon-emission-reduction mechanism from the perspective of air pollution control auditing is of great practical significance for China to implement the dual-carbon strategy. Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2018, we examine whether and how the auditing of air pollution control has an impact on carbon emission reduction by using multiple regression method and the mediating analysis. Our analyses show that air pollution control auditing can significantly restrain carbon emissions but has no impact on carbon emission intensity. Further research suggests that (1) the bottom-up audit represented by local audit institutions is more effective than the top-down audit represented by the National Audit Office; (2) air pollution control auditing follows a simple and direct method to curb carbon emissions by output reduction, regulation, and shutdown, rather than promoting technological progress and green transformation of enterprises in a high-quality development mode. Those findings provide an improvement direction for air pollution control auditing to contribute to carbon emission reduction and supply relevant policy references for implementing the dual carbon strategy.

Dynamic Analysis of Industrial Carbon Footprint and Carbon-Carrying Capacity of Zhejiang Province in China

In studying the industrial carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2019, this paper calculates the carbon footprint, carbon-carrying capacity, net carbon footprint, and carbon footprint intensity of Zhejiang Province. The methods are recommended in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The results show that (1) raw coal accounts for the highest proportion of carbon footprint in Zhejiang Province; (2) overall carbon-carrying capacity is stable first and then significantly increases, and forest land is the main carbon carrier; (3) the value of net carbon footprint is positive, which shows that the carbon-carrying capacity in the ecological environment is gradually increasing; and (4) the carbon footprint intensity of Zhejiang Province is reduced, and the energy utilization efficiency is improved. It shows that the carbon emission reduction policy of Zhejiang Province has made great achievements, but the per capita carbon footprint is far higher than the world average. According to the above analysis results, this paper puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions.

Fighting Against Climate Change: Denmark’s Effort in Reducing Global Carbon Emissions

The problem of climate change is a global threat, which is driven by the production of global carbon emissions that continue to increase every year, reaching 36.4 billion metric tons in 2020. If this continues, climate change will cause various negative impacts on the lives of the global community in the field of environmental, economic, social, and health. Therefore, countries must commit and make real efforts to reduce global carbon emissions each year. Denmark is one of the countries that has big ambitions to reduce global carbon emissions, so it makes various efforts at the national, regional, and international levels, and becomes a role model for other countries. The purpose of this research is to find out Denmark's efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. The research used a qualitative descriptive method by using Green Diplomacy Concept in describing Denmark’seffort. The results obtained are that Denmark has succeeded in becoming a country that has significantly reduced national carbon emission production, which was then continued by carrying out The Green Frontline Mission program in various countries, encouraging carbon emission reduction policies in the European Union, becoming chairman of COP26, and establishing the Beyond organization. Oil & Gas Alliance (BOGA). Denmark's various efforts in suppressing the production of global carbon emissions are part of green diplomacy which not only achieves the national interest but also the public interest, namely solving the problem of climate change.

Influencing factors and contribution analysis of CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, China

Within the context of CO2 emission peaking and carbon neutrality, the study of CO2 emissions at the provincial level is few. Sichuan Province in China has not only superior clean energy resources endowment but also great potential for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Therefore, using logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to analysis the influence degree of different influencing factors on CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, so as to formulate corresponding emission reduction countermeasures from different paths according to the influencing factors. Based on the data of final energy consumption in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2019, we calculated CO2 emission by the indirect emission calculation method. The influencing factors of CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province were decomposed into population size, economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure by the Kaya–logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model. At the same time, grey correlation analysis was used to identify the correlation between CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption and the influencing factors in Sichuan Province. The results showed that population size, economic development and energy consumption structure have positive contributions to CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, and economic development has a significant contribution to CO2 emissions from final energy consumption, with a contribution rate of 519.11%. The industrial structure and energy consumption intensity have negative contributions to CO2 emissions in Sichuan Province, and both of them have significant contributions, among which the contribution rate of energy consumption structure was 325.96%. From the perspective of industrial structure, secondary industry makes significant contributions and will maintain a restraining effect; from the perspective of energy consumption structure, industry sector has a significant contribution. The results of this paper are conducive to the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies in Sichuan Province.

Research on Carbon Cap-and-trade Policies and Corporate Low-carbon Value Creation

With global warming, governments have introduced carbon emission reduction policies, among which carbon cap-and-trade policies have been implemented with remarkable effects. As the main carrier of carbon emissions, cap-and-trade policies greatly affect their operational objectives and decision-making environment. Through literature review, it can be determined that carbon information disclosure and increasing carbon assets can enhance the value of enterprises, and thus improve their competitiveness in the market. Finally, the limitations in the existing research are described and future research directions are provided.

Analysis of the carbon emission driving factors and prediction of a carbon peak scenario——A case study of Xi'an city

The continuous growth of global carbon emissions has become the focus of attention in political and academic circles in various countries. Understanding the driving factors of change in urban carbon emissions and predicting the peak of carbon emissions is of great significance for guiding the formulation of urban as well as national carbon emission reduction policies. Using Xi'an as an example, this study analyses the changing trend of its carbon emissions over the past 20 years. Based on carbon emissions and total economic volume, a Tapio decoupling elasticity analysis model was constructed, the decoupling coefficient of Xi'an from 2000 to 2020 was calculated, and the decoupling status of economic growth and carbon emissions were analysed. Using the Kaya identity and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition to analyse the driving factors of the city's carbon emissions, combined with a multi-scenario forecasting method, three different scenarios were subdivided, and the approximate time of Xi'an's carbon peak was estimated. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the overall carbon emissions in Xi'an showed an upwards trend. In recent years, the decoupling status of economic growth and carbon emissions in Xi'an has been ideal, and the effect of carbon emission reduction is obvious. Population and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) have a positive driving effect on carbon emissions, and energy intensity has a negative driving force on carbon emissions. During early years, the carbon intensity of energy consumption showed a positive effect on carbon emissions. With the improvement of the energy structure, the intensity of energy consumption inhibits the growth of carbon emissions. Under the three scenarios of low carbon, baseline and high carbon, the carbon peak years will be achieved approximately in 2016, 2025 and 2035, and the corresponding carbon peaks are approximately 29.5 million tons, 29.66 million tons and 31 million tons, respectively.

Consumption-side carbon emissions and carbon unequal exchange: A perspective of domestic value chain fragmentation

The transfer of products traded between regions is accompanied by carbon transfer. From the perspective of domestic production fragmentation, inter-regional product trade was divided into six types. Based on China's multi-regional input-output tables in 2012, 2015, and 2017, the production- and consumption-side carbon emissions under the value chains of each province were calculated. Combined with the value-added transfer under each value chain, the production- and consumption-side carbon intensity of each province was calculated and deconstructed. Finally, pollution terms of trade was introduced to analyze the environmental status of provinces and carbon unequal exchange between provinces in different value chains. The results showed that, from 2012 to 2017, the most significant contributor of carbon emissions are products consumed within the province, followed by the intermediate products traded across the province once, final products traded across the province once, and products trade across the province twice and more. From 2012 to 2017, China's total carbon emissions increased, while the carbon intensity significantly represented a decreasing trend. From the perspective of carbon intensity, most of the eastern coastal provinces were net importers of carbon emissions, while most of the northwest and middle Yellow River were net exporters of carbon emissions. In the province with a developed tertiary industry, the production chain of intermediate products traded across provinces twice and more was the main contributor to the consumption-side carbon intensity. The production chain of intermediate products traded across provinces once was the main contributors to the consumption-side carbon intensity. From the perspective of carbon unequal exchange, most of the eastern coastal provinces had environmental and economic advantages, and pollution terms of trade in some northwestern provinces exhibited a worsening trend. From the perspective of value chain, the inter-provincial carbon unequal exchange caused by the intermediate products traded across provinces once is most serious, but the inter-provincial bilateral carbon unequal exchange caused by the final products of traded across provinces once is the best. This study provides a theoretical reference for China's provinces to formulate targeted carbon emission reduction policies for different trade types of products and regional cooperation in carbon emission reduction.

Can carbon trading policy and local public expenditures synergize to promote carbon emission reduction in the power industry?

The power industry is the largest carbon-emitting sector in China, accounting for about 40% of the country's total carbon emissions. Studying the carbon emission reduction from the perspective of the power industry has important theoretical and practical significance for formulating targeted carbon emission reduction policies. This study examines the carbon reduction effect of the carbon trading policy, local public expenditure, and the synergistic scenario of the both in the power industry of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019. The study shows that: (1) The carbon trading policy significantly promotes carbon reduction in the power industry, and the longer the carbon trading policy is implemented, the stronger the inhibitory effect. The carbon price, carbon market activity, and carbon market size in the carbon market mechanism have a significant negative correlation on the carbon emissions of the power industry. (2) In the overall period from 2010 to 2019, the carbon intensity of local public expenditure (CIPE) made the largest contribution to promoting carbon reduction in the power industry, with -175.581%, while the effect of public expenditure intensity on labor input (PO) contributed the most to the suppression of carbon reduction in the power industry, with 136.930%. (3) Under the synergy effect of carbon trading policy and local public expenditure, the share of local public expenditure (ALG) and per capita GDP (PGDP) can promote carbon reduction in the power industry. Paying attention to the timing, distribution, and complementarity of policies to promote the synergy effect of carbon trading policy and local public expenditure is a major feature of realizing carbon emission reduction in the power industry, green economic development, and improving China's unified carbon market.

Spatial-temporal evolution and peak prediction of embodied carbon emissions in China's interregional trade.

The embodied carbon in inter-regional trade has a vital impact on the allocation of carbon emission reduction obligations and the formulation of carbon emission reduction strategies. Fewer studies have examined the spatial-temporal evolution pattern and peak prediction of embodied carbon emissions in China's inter-regional trade compared with the more numerous results on embodied carbon in international commerce. This paper applies the multi-regional input-output method to estimate the embodied carbon in inter-regional trade resulting from value-added transfer and investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of its patterns. The existence of an environmental Kuznets curve model with embodied carbon emissions as the index of environmental pollution in China is examined, and the time of the inflection point is calculated. The environmental Kuznets curve model is divided into four stages, and a two-dimensional model of economic development and embodied carbon emissions is proposed. The empirical findings indicate that the embodied carbon in China's interregional commerce has an overall rising tendency in the temporal dimension and a distribution characteristic of high in the west and north and low in the east and south in the spatial dimension. The Environmental Kuznets curve, which uses embodied carbon emissions as a measure of environmental pollution, has an inverse U-shaped and the time required to reach the inflection point varies by area. Economic development cannot be cross-stage but can shorten the duration of high carbon emissions. The government should promote the development of differentiated carbon emission reduction policies in each region, construct an inter-regional cooperative carbon emission reduction mechanism, encourage the low-carbon development of inter-regional trade, and realize the internal cycle of China's green economy. This study serves as a guide for the regions to establish scientific and acceptable carbon emission reduction strategies in order to achieve quality interregional trade development.

Do Land Use Structure Changes Impact Regional Carbon Emissions? A Spatial Econometric Study in Sichuan Basin, China.

Human activities are closely related to carbon emissions and the mechanism of land-use structure change on carbon emissions is unclear. In this study, 143 counties in the Sichuan Basin of China were used as sample units, and the land use structure of each sample unit in the Sichuan Basin was measured by applying the information entropy theory, analyzing the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics and the influencing relationships of land use structure and carbon emissions in the Sichuan Basin, by spatial econometric analysis of panel data on carbon emissions and information entropy of land use structure over five time periods from 2000 to 2018. The results indicate that: the carbon emission intensity and information entropy of land use in the Sichuan basin are increasing over the years, and the cross-sectional data reflect inconsistent spatial distribution characteristics, with greater changes around large cities; both carbon emissions and land use structure are spatially auto-correlated, the information entropy of land use positively affects carbon emission intensity; carbon emissions have positive spillover effects, and changes in land use structure have no obvious regional impact on surrounding areas; there may be potential threshold areas for the impact of land-use structure change on carbon emissions. This study has certain reference value for land use planning and carbon emission reduction policies.

Urban land use carbon emission intensity in China under the "double carbon" targets: spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend.

In-depth research on the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of urban land use carbon emission intensity (ULUCEI) can reveal the internal relationship between urban land use and carbon emissions, which is crucial for achieving carbon emission reduction and "double carbon" targets. This paper proposed a conceptual framework of ULUCEI; the methods of kernel density estimation (KDE), exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and spatial Markov chains were adopted for exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of China's ULUCEI from 2000 to 2017. The following conclusions are drawn through research. (1) There was an increasing trend in ULUCEI in China from 0.102 in 2000 to 0.283 in 2017. From the regional perspective, the ULUCEI in the eastern region is markedly higher than that in the central and western regions. Moreover, the results of nuclear density estimation indicate that China's ULUCEI shows an obvious upward and polarized trend. (2) China's ULUCEI shows a positive spatial autocorrelation. The types of spatial agglomeration include "high-high" agglomeration, "high-low" polarization, "low-high" collapse, and "low-low" homogeneity, and there are obvious disparities in the distribution rules of cities with different spatial agglomeration forms. (3) China's ULUCEI presents strong stability and "club convergence" trend. Moreover, spatial factors significantly affect the dynamic transition of China's ULUCEI, and its effect on the shifting upwards gradually enhances with increasing lag type. This paper therefore suggests that policymakers should formulate differentiated urban land low-carbon use models and carbon emission reduction policies to reduce ULUCEI.

Regional differences and influencing factors of the carbon emission efficiency from public buildings in China

The rapid development of the tertiary industry has made the energy consumption of public buildings grow too fast during the operation stage, which has become a key area of energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s construction industry. This study uses the Minimum Distance to Strong effective Frontier function (MinDS) and Malmquist-Luenberger (ML) index analysis methods to measure the public building carbon emission efficiency (PBCEE) of 30 provincial-level units in China’s eight economic regions from 2010 to 2019, and analyze regional differences and evolution. Then, the influencing factors of PBCEE in different regions were analyzed using the fixed-effect panel data model. The results show that: 1) China’s PBCEE is generally low, with an average efficiency value of only 0.74, and there are great differences among regions, showing the spatial characteristics of “high in the east and low in the west.” 2) Relying on the positive impact of technological progress, the PBCEE in the eight regions increased year by year, with an annual growth rate of 1.82%. 3) The influence results and degrees of various factors on PBCEE are different in different economic zones, but increasing the proportion of electricity consumption has a certain positive effect on improving PBCEE. The same influencing factor has obvious threshold characteristics for PBCEE in different regions, so the government needs to consider the actual situation of the region when formulating carbon emission reduction policies for public buildings.

Embodied carbon transfer between China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries

The Belt and Road Initiative was proposed by China in 2013 to promote the interconnected development and prosperity of all participating countries. In the context of global response to climate change, understanding the embodied carbon transfer change along economic trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative is essential to reduce carbon overall emission. In this paper, we used a multi-regional input-output model to study the embodied carbon transfer in trade between the Belt and Road countries that have signed cooperation documents with China from 2004 to 2017. The results showed that from 2004 to 2017, the growth rate that China's carbon emissions imported from other Belt and Road Initiative countries was about 1.9 times that of its exports. From 2004 to 2017, the proportion of China's carbon imports from other Belt and Road countries in China's total carbon imports increased from 3.41% to 3.73%, and exports decreased from 6.52% to 6.03%. In both 2004 and 2017, Electricity, Gas and Water sector, Heavy Industry sector, Transport sector were the three largest carbon transfer sectors in China's multilateral trade. In 2017, the embodied carbon transfer by multilateral trade among other Belt and Road countries except China increased by 15.53% compared with 2004. By comparing the characteristics of carbon transfer between China and the Belt and Road countries from 2004 to 2017, this study will provide insights for carbon emission reduction policy setting of Belt and Road Initiative countries.

Research on Evolutionary Game Strategy Selection and Simulation Research of Carbon Emission Reduction of Government and Enterprises under the “Dual Carbon” Goal

As one of the effective market instruments in carbon emission reduction policy, carbon trading is capable of promoting the smooth implementation of the “dual carbon” goal. Based on the path evolutionary game method of information economics, this paper constructs a dynamic game model of the evolution and development of government and enterprise carbon emission reduction. It also analyzes the evolution and development law of government and enterprise carbon emission reduction. We used the carbon market trading data of Guangdong Province to simulate the evolutionary game path of government and enterprise carbon emission reduction under the “double carbon” target and then selected strategies. Results show that (1) Scientific adjustment of carbon quota can effectively shorten the realization time of carbon emission reduction probability of high-pollution enterprises, obtain additional surplus carbon quota, and win extra carbon emission reduction income; (2) Increasing financial subsidies can improve the probability of carbon emission reduction of high-pollution enterprises but cannot prevent the periodic change in carbon emission reduction probability, which in turn helps prolong the “window period” of government regulation on carbon emission reduction; (3) Increasing carbon emission penalties will help high-pollution enterprises actively reduce emissions and improve the motivation of government supervision; (4) The government can introduce a dynamic reward and punishment mechanism. If the government properly chooses the reward and punishment strategy, it may not necessarily pay additional subsidies, so that the government and enterprises can cooperate in tacit agreement to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction; (5) If the price of carbon emission permits is adjusted, high-pollution enterprises will actively reduce carbon emissions and gain greater benefits no matter what regulatory measures the government takes. Results of this study have profound significance for carbon emission reduction strategies and government regulation of high-pollution enterprises and will help China achieve its “dual carbon” development goal.

Impact of the differences in carbon footprint driving factors on carbon emission reduction of urban agglomerations given SDGs: A case study of the Guanzhong in China

• The driving mechanism of CF based on SDGs is revealed. • There is a critical point in the population agglomeration effect on CF. • The effects of energy structure and energy intensity on CF differ significantly. • The “ strong decoupling ” state of CF and economic growth is unstable. • Urban agglomerations plays an important role in carbon emission reduction. Urban agglomerations (UAs) are important actors in carbon emission reduction (CER) of China, but with the acceleration of urbanization, the increasing carbon footprint (CF) seriously hinders UAs to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Taking the Guanzhong urban agglomeration (GUA) as a case, the CF are measured by IPCC emission inventory method. It is analyzed that the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of CF. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model and Tapio decoupling model are used to explore the effects and difference changes of the CF driving factors and analyze the decoupling relationship between CF and economic growth. The results show that the CF of the GUA increased from 161.60 to 274.02 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007-2018, which is an increase of 71.25%. Urban expansion, industrial structure and economic growth promoted the increases, and population agglomeration promoted the decreases. The effects of the energy structure and energy intensity on the CF changes are significantly different among cities. The decoupling state of CF and economic growth is unstable. The study provides the SDGs-oriented research framework on CF driving factors for developing regions and helps improve the adaptability of CER policies in UAs.