Capture Probability Research Articles

Pore-scale morphology effects on colloid deposition by trajectory tracking simulations

The migration and deposition of colloids in natural porous media is a phenomenon of high importance in hydrocarbon recovery, wastewater treatment and contaminant hydrogeology. Commonly described by colloid filtration theory (CFT), and using a single representative collector element, the theoretical framework is not accounting for morphological effects and heterogeneity of realistic porous media, including the local variations of balance of forces or presence of hydraulically stagnant regions in the vicinity of grain-to-grain contacts. So far developed numerical models of colloidal transport in porous media accounting for all major interactions and pore structure were applied to 2D systems. Known 3D simulations are limited to particulate flow with a reduced set of interactions.We propose a coupled colloid transport model combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element model (DEM) approaches, where the former provides the velocity field at a given time step, while the second calculates the updated colloid positions accounting for a set of forces acting on each colloid. Relationships between colloid retention and morphological characteristics, such as the pore coordination number and surface to volume ratio of a random sphere pack are investigated by pore partitioning of a digitized representation. The role of stagnation zones is quantified by expressing the capture probability of colloids as a function of distance to the nearest grain-to-grain contact measured along the curved surface.The analysis of pore space morphology of the collector and the simulated filtration process reveals a strong relation between colloid retention and pore connectivity. The simulations successfully mimic the expected effects of ionic strength of the carrier fluid, such as the increasing role of grain-to-grain contacts in colloid retention at low ionic strength.

How many are they? Estimates of demographic patterns of reproductive females of southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) in the southern coast of Brazil

AbstractSouthern right whales use the Brazilian coast as a wintering area. This population was severely depleted by whaling up until 1973. Since the 1980s, studies have shown that this species is now restricted to the southern waters of Brazil. Using photo‐identification data obtained via standardized aerial surveys from Florianópolis, State of Santa Catarina (SC) (−27.797°/−48.533°) to Torres, State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) (−29.396°/−49.763°), mark‐recapture methods were used to estimate survival capture and recruitment probability, population size using the POPAN model for reproductive females. Data were collected between 2004 and 2021. The final model was selected based on the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value. Of the 396 female whales identified, 41.41% were recaptured at least once. The final POPAN model showed time dependence in all parameters. The population size was estimated to be 397 reproductive females. This is the first update on the population trends for southern right whales in Brazilian breeding grounds since 2010.

Effect of heterogeneity size on three-phase contact line formation kinetics

Flotation relies on the differences in surface wettability. Although solids with the same hydrophobicity are generally regarded as having the same capture probability, the heterogeneities found on particle surfaces could complicate bubble–solid interactions. For surfaces with the same hydrophobicity and different sizes of inclusions, the heterogeneity size is expected to affect bubble–solid interactions. In this work, Microelectromechanical system techniques were used to fabricate chemically heterogeneous samples with the same hydrophobicity on which discrete hydrophilic dots with different diameters were distributed. The collision and adhesion processes between free-rising bubbles and these chemically heterogeneous surfaces were studied using a high-speed video camera. For all surfaces, the time intervals between successive collisions and the bubble trajectories were similar before bubble rupture. In contrast, the time elapsed between maximum air bubble deformation and rupture varied, with the rupture time appearing random. Nevertheless, the terminal diameter and average expansion velocity after bubble rupture were negatively correlated with the hydrophilic dot diameter. Thus, for heterogeneous surface with discrete hydrophilic dots, the bouncing behaviour of air bubbles before rupture is independent of heterogeneity size, whereas the three-phase contact line expansion behaviour after rupture is related to heterogeneity size. These insights can provide guiding principles for improving the flotation.

Abundance of freshwater Irrawaddy dolphins in the Mahakam River in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, based on mark-recapture analysis of photo-identified individuals

From February 1999 to August 2002 ca 9,000km (840 hours) of search effort and 549 hours of observation on Irrawaddy dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris) were conducted by boat in the Mahakam River in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. An abundance estimate based on mark-recapture analysis of individuals photographed during separate surveys is presented here. Petersen and Jolly-Seber analysis methods were employed and compared along with earlier estimates derived from strip-transect analysis and direct counts. These comparisons serve to evaluate the biases of each method and assess the reliability of the abundance estimates. The feasibility of video-identification is also assessed. Total population size calculated by Petersen and Jolly-Seber mark-recapture analyses, was estimated to be 55 (95% CL=44-76; CV=6%) and 48 individuals (95% CL=33-63; CV=15%) respectively. Estimates based on strip-transect and direct count analysis for one sampling period, which was also included in the mark-recapture analysis, were within the confidence limits of the Jolly-Seber estimate (Ncount = 35 and Nstrip = 43). Calculated potential maximum biases appeared to be small, i.e. 2% of N for Petersen and 10% of N for the Jolly-Seber method, which are lower than the associated CVs. In addition, a high re-sight probability was calculated for both methods varying between 65% and 67%. Video images were considered a valuable, supplementary tool to still photography in the identification of individual dolphins in this study. For future monitoring of trends in abundance using mark/recapture analyses, a time interval is recommended between the two sampling periods that is short enough to minimise the introduction of errors due to gains and losses. Also, survey area coverage during photoidentification should be similar to avoid violation of the assumption of equal capture probabilities. The alarmingly low abundance estimates presented underline the need for immediate and strong action to preserve Indonesia’s only known freshwater dolphin population.

Trap Escape as a Driver of Capture Probability in Semiaquatic Snakes

Sampling biases resulting from capture methodology or animal behavioral responses can significantly skew our understanding of population size and structure. Behavioral responses to passive sampling with traps, such as trap-happy or trap-shy responses, can be accounted for in analyses using individual covariates but they require detailed understanding of the underlying behavioral mechanisms. We used a field experiment to investigate the impact of trap escape on capture rates and determine what traits influence trap escape rates between and within two species of semiaquatic snakes, Liodytes pygaea and Nerodia fasciata. We found that L. pygaea escaped significantly more often than did N. fasciata, smaller L. pygaea escaped at significantly higher rates than did larger conspecifics, and individual capture history significantly influenced escape rates in N. fasciata. Our findings highlight understudied sources of inter- and intraspecific capture heterogeneity in a common sampling technique, and we urge researchers to consider method-specific sampling biases when attempting to produce population parameter estimates for species that are difficult to detect.

Doubly Robust Capture-Recapture Methods for Estimating Population Size

Estimation of population size using incomplete lists has a long history across many biological and social sciences. For example, human rights groups often construct partial lists of victims of armed conflicts, to estimate the total number of victims. Earlier statistical methods for this setup often use parametric assumptions, or rely on suboptimal plug-in-type nonparametric estimators; but both approaches can lead to substantial bias, the former via model misspecification and the latter via smoothing. Under an identifying assumption that two lists are conditionally independent given measured covariates, we make several contributions. First, we derive the nonparametric efficiency bound for estimating the capture probability, which indicates the best possible performance of any estimator, and sheds light on the statistical limits of capture-recapture methods. Then we present a new estimator, that has a double robustness property new to capture-recapture, and is near-optimal in a nonasymptotic sense, under relatively mild nonparametric conditions. Next, we give a confidence interval construction method for total population size from generic capture probability estimators, and prove nonasymptotic near-validity. Finally, we apply them to estimate the number of killings and disappearances in Peru during its internal armed conflict between 1980 and 2000. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Abundance of Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in 2004 estimated from photo-identification data

Ice-based surveys near Point Barrow, Alaska, have been used to obtain most estimates of abundance for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (B-C-B) stock of bowhead whales, but global warming has raised concerns that ice-based surveys may not be practical in the future. Aerial photographic surveys provide an alternative method for obtaining abundance estimates and may replace ice-based surveys. Aerial photographic surveys were conducted near Point Barrow during the spring migrations of bowhead whales in 2003 and 2004 and, in 2005, in the northern Bering Sea in spring and near Barrow in fall. The 2003 survey was the most complete photographic survey of the population conducted to date. These surveys provided photo-identification data for use in capture-recapture analyses. A screening procedure was used to define which whales captured in 2003, 2004 and/or 2005 were marked and could be reidentified if photographed on another occasion. An estimate of the number of marked whales was obtained using a closed population model for capture-recapture data. Several models were investigated, including models that accounted for heterogeneity in capture probabilities, but a simple model with no covariates produced the most precise estimate. To account for unmarked whales, the estimate of marked whales was divided by an estimate of the proportion of the bowhead population that was marked based on the 1989–2004 spring photographic surveys near Point Barrow. Abundance of the B-C-B bowhead population in 2004 (excluding calves) was estimated to be 12,631 with CV 0.2442, 95% bootstrap percentile confidence interval (7,900; 19,700) and 5% lower limit 8,400. These results were compared with results that used approximate variance expressions for the estimates of the number of marked whales, the proportion of the population that was marked and population abundance instead of using the bootstrap. The estimates of abundance in 2004 computed for comparison included one based on a modified Petersen estimate of the number of marked whales that omitted the 2005 data as well as the estimate of 12,631 described above. The comparison estimates also included estimates of abundance in 1985 computed from 1984–87 photographic survey data using the same methods. All the abundance estimates computed from photographic data were consistent with expectations based on independent abundance and trend estimates from the ice-based surveys conducted from 1978 to 2001.

Population dynamics of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the Crozet Archipelago, southern Indian Ocean: a mark-recapture study from 1977 to 2002

Population size and annual survival probabilities for the killer whales (Orcinus orca) inhabiting the inshore waters of Possession Island, Crozet Archipelago, southern Indian Ocean, were estimated through mark-recapture modelling. Capture histories were generated from a set of photographs taken under a photo-identification protocol and a set of photographs taken opportunistically, between 1964 and 2002. Photographs were selected according to their intrinsic quality and the degree of natural marking of individuals. Under those conditions, only well-marked individuals were considered as ‘marked’ from a capture-recapture perspective. The purpose of this double selection was to minimise identification errors and reduce the heterogeneity of capture probabilities. Abundance estimates were derived from the Mth sequential model for closed populations and adjusted for the proportion of well-marked individuals in the study population and for the number of photo-identified individuals. Under this framework, estimates of 98 (95% CI 70-156) individuals in 1988-89, and 37 (95% CI 32-62) individuals in 1998-2000 are proposed. After a weighted model averaging, the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with the strongest support from the data produced low survival probability estimates, decreasing from 0.935 (95% CI 0.817-0.979) to 0.895 (95% CI 0.746-0.961) for males, and from 0.942 (95% CI 0.844-0.980) to 0.901 (95% CI 0.742-0.966) for females over the period 1977-2002. A Jolly-Seber model was used as a ‘second opinion’ model. It confirmed the worrying status of the population with a constant survival probability estimated at 0.89 (95% CI 0.84-0.93) and a constant rate of increase (applying to the well-marked fraction of the population) estimated at 0.94 (95% CI 0.90-0.99) for the period 1987-2000. This rate of increase is consistent with the abundance estimates presented here. Possible violations of the underlying model assumptions were investigated and it was concluded that the abundance estimates for the period 1988-89 and the CJS survival estimates should be the most reliable results. It is feared that the killer whales around Possession Island are in sharp decline, as may be true for the whole Crozet Archipelago. The effect of low prey stocks and lethal interactions with fisheries as the most likely causes of this decline are discussed.

Empirical Bayes estimation of the size of a closed population using photo-identification data

Photo-ID data are broadly used for estimating animal abundance using capture-recapture models. Animals that do not possess either natural or acquired marks sufficient to allow re-identification are called unmarked, and when a substantial part of the population is composed of such individuals, the classical models described in the literature do not apply. In this paper an Empirical Bayes capture-recapture analysis for dealing with the estimation of the capture probabilities and the estimation of abundance N for populations that include unmarked individuals is presented. Using a Gibbs sampling approach, Monte Carlo estimates for the posterior distribution of N were obtained. The Empirical Bayes approach was found to improve precision in the estimation of N, compared to the results obtained using other Bayesian methods. Additionally, when the population included a very large number of unmarked individuals, inferences for N obtained using the Empirical Bayes approach were definitely superior to those obtained using any of the vague beta priors tested. The methodology was applied to bowhead whale data for the 1985 and 1986 photo-ID surveys.

Analysis of the feeding ecology of the sea anemone Bunodosoma zamponii: populations under differential anthropogenic pressures

The feeding ecology of two populations of the sea anemone Bunodosoma zamponii Gomes, Schama & Solé-Cava 2012 living under different anthropogenic pressures in the coast of Mar del Plata (Buenos Aires, Argentina) was studied. One population was located in Las Delicias (LD; an impacted site adjacent to a wastewater treatment plant) and another in Punta Cantera (PC; the reference site). Both populations of sea anemones were monitored for 2 years and their trophic ecology was analyzed. The mytilid Brachidontes rodriguezii (d'Orbigny, 1842) was the main item found throughout all seasons. Prey diversity was highest in PC during autumn and lowest during winter for both sites. Prey abundance was lower in LD during autumn and summer. Additionally, prey items were larger in PC during autumn, winter, and summer. Item capture probability in autumn was significantly lower in LD. Altogether, the results indicate that the diet of Bunodosoma zamponii differed significantly between sites and such differences varied throughout the year. Most of the differences occurred during autumn and winter, which correspond with a greater concentration of organochlorine pesticides, chlorpyrifos, and polychlorinated biphenyls in anemones from LD registered in previous studies. Overall, this study provides significant knowledge on the feeding ecology of Bunodosoma zamponii that complements the existing information and will provide meaningful insight into the current status of this anemone's populations.

The Effect of Food Deprivation on Foraging Behavior and Digestive and Metabolic Capacities of the Chinese Mitten Crab, Eriocheir sinensis

Food deprivation is a common stress in crustaceans that can affect their behavior and physiology. In this study, a video recording analysis system was used to compare the predation rate and behavior of the Chinese mitten crab, Eriocheir sinensis, foraging on the freshwater snail, Bellamya quadrata, under different degrees of food deprivation. The activities of lactate dehydrogenase, α-amylase, pepsin, and lipase in the hepatopancreas of crabs were determined after food deprivation for 0, 3, 9, and 15 days. The results showed that the predation and encounter rates of E. sinensis increased and then decreased with an increase in food deprivation time. The proportion of stationary time of E. sinensis initially decreased and then increased, whereas the proportion of searching and handling time increased initially and then decreased. There was a significant difference in the probability of capture upon encountering; however, food deprivation did not significantly affect the probability of consumption upon capture. Under food deprivation, the proportion of E. sinensis crushing tactics after nine-day food deprivation was significantly lower than that in the first nine days. Lactate dehydrogenase activity in the E. sinensis hepatopancreas after food deprivation was significantly higher than that in those not subjected to food deprivation, and the activities of α-amylase and pepsin in the hepatopancreas were consistent with the predation rate trend, showing an initial increase followed by a decrease. In conclusion, different degrees of food deprivation significantly affected the predation cycle of E. sinensis on B. quadrata. These results lay a solid foundation for further studies on the foraging behavioral ecology of E. sinensis and provide important information for improving E. sinensis production.

A new technique for estimating the probability of attentional capture.

Latency-based metrics of attentional capture are limited: They indicate whether or not capture occurred, but they do not indicate how often capture occurred. The present study introduces a new technique for estimating the probability of capture. In a spatial cueing paradigm, participants searched for a target letter defined by color while attempting to ignore salient cues that were drawn in either a relevant or irrelevant color. The results demonstrated the typical contingent capture effect: larger cue validity effects from relevant cues than irrelevant cues. Importantly, using a novel analytical approach, we were able to estimate the probability that the salient cue captured attention. This approach revealed a surprisingly low probability of attentional capture in the spatial cuing paradigm. Relevant cues are thought to be one of the strongest attractors of attention, yet they were estimated to capture attention on only about 30% of trials. This new metric provides an index of capture strength that can be meaningfully compared across different experimental contexts, which was not possible until now.

Parallel filtration for solid-liquid separation: A case study of highly-efficient algal removal under parallel configuration driven by magnetic force

In traditional membrane filtration systems, the perpendicular permeate flow to the membrane surface causes the retentate to block the membrane pores, which results in an unavoidable cake resistance, thus making it difficult to achieve high filtration flux. In this study, a novel parallel filtration configuration driven by magnetic force was proposed for the removal of Microcystis flos-aquae. The results showed that the filtration flux under parallel filtration configuration reached 750,000 L⋅m−2⋅h−1 which is 3 times higher than the highest flux (280,000 L⋅m−2⋅h−1) reported in previous literature for algal removal. The permeate flow did not need to cross the cake layer, and the “pore size” of the filter chamber can be as high as 10 cm, thus resulting in negligible resistance (2.1 × 101 m−1) and higher filtration flux compared to traditional vertical filtration. For the magnetic-driven parallel filtration, the use of cationic polyacrylamide after polyaluminum chloride coagulation and magnetic particles (MPs) spiking was necessary. Increasing the MPs size and dosage further improved the filtration performance. Moreover, excessive flow velocity would affect the capture probability of algae-MPs aggregates by the magnetic field, which can be overcome by enhancing the magnetic field strength. We have developed a parallel filtration configuration for highly-efficient solid-liquid separation with simple and sustainable processes, which have the potential for rapid, efficient and large-scale applications in product purification, contaminant removal, and resource recycling in the future.

Toward Optimal RFID Frame Lengths

In dense radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, reducing reading times is crucial. For tag anti-collision management, most RFID systems rely on Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA). The most common method used to reduce the reading time for large tag populations is the optimization of the number of slots per frame. Each slot in real RFID systems has a different duration determined by its type (idle, successful, or colliding). Furthermore, by detecting the strongest transponder, colliding slots can be converted into successful slots, a phenomenon known as the capture effect. The strongest tag reply can also be intentionally detected by enhancing the reader’s capabilities with collision recovery. RFID readers may also be capable of identifying slot types using the physical layer and reducing the colliding slot time because in this case, the reader can immediately terminate the connection as there is no reason to reply with an invalid acknowledge and wait for the time-out. This paper presents an exhaustive analysis of the effect of slot type identification and capture probability on the frame length in the presence of different tag cardinality estimation techniques. Additionally, the effect of the new optimized frame length on the total reading time reduction is addressed with different tag encoding schemes. Theoretically, experimental results for FM0 encoding show that our technique achieves a total reading time reduction between 5.5% and 11.3% over methods that do not take into account slot type identification in the frame length optimization. For Miller encoding scheme with M=2,4, and 8 the reading time is decreased by 9%, 6%, and 1% respectively. The maximum reading time reductions are achieved at collision recovery probabilities values of 0.4 for FM0 and Miller with M=2 and 0.45 & 0.6 for M=4, and M=8, respectively. In case the reader does not have any collision recovery capability and the Shoute algorithm is used to estimate the tag cardinality, the maximum reading time reductions dropped to 3.9%, 2.6%, 1.7%, and 1.3% for FM0, Miller encoding scheme with M=2,4, and 8, respectively. However, if a more optimized tag cardinality estimation technique is used such as the Schoute algorithm, the maximum reading time reductions are 7.8%, 4.8%, 3.3%, and 2.4% for FM0, Miller encoding scheme with M=2,4 and 8, respectively.

Assessment of Negative Bias Temperature Instability Due to Interface and Oxide Trapped Charges in Gate-All-Around TFET Devices

The effects of negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) on emerging tunnel FET (TFET) devices are setting of important reliability concern for analog/digital circuit design. In this work, NBTI effects in gate-all-around tunnel FET (GAA TFET) devices have been thoroughly analyzed and the unstressed p-type GAA TFET transfer characteristics are calibrated with the experimentally published data to tune the models used for the numerical analysis. The GAA device is stressed for different time durations and for different temperatures to analyze the capture and emission probabilities of the trapped charges. The effect of oxide trapping, interface trapping, and trapping of charges at several regions in the channel are analyzed individually, as well as collectively. The sub-threshold voltage of the TFET device is also investigated and it has been found that the change in the sub-threshold slope is not at all degraded by NBTI stress.

Circumbinary planets: migration, trapping in mean-motion resonances, and ejection

Context. Most of the planetary systems discovered around binary stars are located at approximately three semi-major axes from the barycentre of their system, curiously close to low-order mean-motion resonances (MMRs). The formation mechanism of these circumbinary planets is not yet fully understood. In situ formation is extremely challenging because of the strong interaction with the binary. One possible explanation is that, after their formation, the interactions between these planets and the surrounding protoplanetary disc cause them to migrate at velocities dependent on the nature of the disc and the mass of the exoplanet. Although extensive data can be obtained with direct hydrodynamical simulations, their computational cost remains too high. On the other hand, the direct N-body simulations approach allows us to model a large variety of parameters at much lower cost. Aims. We analyse the planetary migration around a wide variety of binary stars using Stokes-like forces that mimic planetary migration at a constant rate. Our goal is to identify the main parameters responsible for the ejection of planets at different resonances with the inner binary. Methods. We performed 4200 N-body simulations with Stokes-like forces and analysed their evolution and outcome as a function of the properties of each system. For each simulated exoplanet, we applied an ensemble learning method for classification in order to clarify the relationship between the inspected parameters and the process of MMR capture. Results. We identify the capture probability for different N/1 MMRs, 4/1 being the most prone to capture exoplanets, with 37% probability, followed by MMR 5/1 with ~23% of probability. The eccentricity of the binary is found to be the most important parameter in determining the MMR capture of each circumbinary exoplanet, followed by the mass ratio of the binary and the initial eccentricity of the planet.

Deterministic domain wall rotation in a strain mediated FeGaB/PMN-PT asymmetrical ring structure for manipulating trapped magnetic nanoparticles in a fluidic environment.

The manipulation of domain walls (DWs) in strain-mediated magnetoelectric (ME) heterostructures has attracted much attention recently, with potential applications in precise and location-specific manipulation of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs). However, the manipulation ability in these structures is restricted to magnetostrictive circular ring structures only, where the required onion state is metastable, less thermally stable, and cannot be obtained easily. This work investigates the highly shape anisotropic FeGaB magnetostrictive elliptical ring structures of different aspect ratios and trackwidths on the PMN-PT piezoelectric substrate to manipulate fluid-borne MNPs using active control of DWs. The proposed model utilizes the attribute that the required onion state in a magnetostrictive elliptical ring is thermally stable and easily obtained compared to magnetostrictive circular ring structures. By varying the trackwidth of elliptical rings, nucleated DWs are rotated at different angles to capture and transport fluid-borne MNPs. Up to a critical trackwidth, DW rotation is predicted by dominant stress anisotropy energy that leads the rotation of DWs and attached MNPs toward the dominant tensile strain direction of PMN-PT with reversibility. Increasing the trackwidth beyond the critical trackwidth caused a complete 90° rotation of DWs and attached MNPs without reversibility and is given by dominant shape anisotropy energy. The fundamental relationship of capture probability with the size and velocity of injected MNPs is also demonstrated. The nucleation and rotation of DWs are predicated using the coupled elastodynamic and electrostatic Finite Difference Method (FDM) micromagnetic model. Dynamics of MNP capture and rotation are envisaged using an analytical model.

Capture of the oak ambrosia beetle within the host tree canopy

Abstract Because bark and ambrosia beetles fly during their dispersal and host location processes, their flight height is important for assessing their host selection strategy. There is no consensus regarding the height of their dispersal flight in forests, and their method of approaching trees is unclear. This is also the case for Platypus quercivorus (Murayama) (Coleoptera: Platypodinae), which causes Japanese oak wilt by transporting a pathogenic fungus. To clarify the vertical distribution of the flying population of P. quercivorus inside the host tree canopy, interception traps were set up at heights of 1–9 m from the ground near the main trunk of eight host trees, Quercus serrata Thunberg (Fagaceae). Captured beetles were collected between July and October 2022. Hole-boring activities were observed on all trees during the season, and beetles were captured at all heights from 1 to 9 m. Beetle capture probability increased with a decrease in height, and the number of captured beetles increased with a decrease in distance from the main trunk. However, the trap design in this study could not capture individuals coming directly above and must be addressed to elucidate their method of approaching their host plant.

See you in spring: overwinter survival is higher than post summer in the Alpine marmot

Animal species living in highly seasonal environments developed different strategies to cope with the periodical drastic change of environmental conditions. Hibernating mammals survive the winter season by reducing their activity and metabolism, and by centring their activities during the favourable season. Thus, the demography of these species depends upon both hibernating and active periods. In this study, we explored the apparent survival of Alpine marmots monitored between 2007 and 2018 in the North-Western Italian Alps. We fit Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to quantify changes in the apparent survival and capture probability of marmots, after the hibernation phase and at the end of the summer. Apparent survival after winter almost reached 100% and it was higher than post-summer survival. Moreover, while post-summer apparent survival remained almost stable over lifetime, with a slight increase with age, characterised however by wide confidence intervals, overwinter survival decreased with age, especially after 6 years of age. No temporal trends, nor changes between areas at different elevations, were found. We suggest that these results arise from a combination of climatic conditions, predation pressure and social dynamics, which is a pivotal feature of this species and cannot be ignored when considering population dynamics of Alpine marmots.

Non-Destructive Composition Identification for Mixtures of Iron Compounds Using a Chemical Environmental Effect on a Muon Capture Process

Abstract The non-destructive investigation of the chemical state of elements within a material is urgently needed in various scientific research fields. In recent years, non-destructive elemental analysis methods using muons have been developed. These methods identify elements by measuring muonic X-rays emitted from muonic atoms formed by the muon irradiation of the material. Interestingly, muonic atom formation processes are slightly influenced by the chemical state of the muon-capturing atom, and as a result, the muon capture probability of each element and the muonic X-ray emission intensity change depending on the chemical state. By utilizing this effect, it may be possible to know the chemical state at the same time as elemental analysis. In this study, the compositions of γ-Fe2O3 and Fe3O4 in an ironsand sample were determined using two approaches: muonic X-ray intensity ratios and muon capture ratios. The mixing ratios obtained from the two approaches were consistent with each other and consistent with results of the Mössbauer technique, a completely different analysis method. In this study, non-destructive chemical state analysis using muons was successfully demonstrated, and this method is promising for applications in various research fields.