Capital Losses Research Articles

Understanding the current global regime shift and the standing of the macro-financial system resilience

Understanding the current global regime shift and the standing of the macro-financial system resilience

The Role of Integrated Reporting in Income Smoothing, Tax Avoidance, Idiosyncratic Risk – Case of Manufacturing Sector

Purpose : Idiosyncratic risk directly affects investment. The failure to foresee the risk may cause investors to suffer an enormous capital loss. Thus, this study investigates the effect of corporate policies, i.e., income smoothing and tax avoidance, on idiosyncratic risk. The use of integrated reporting as moderating variable is essential in these associations.
 Method : The analysis includes 90 manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2020, obtaining a total sample of 450 firm-year. Multiple linear regression models for panel data are employed to test the hypotheses.
 Findings : Our findings suggest that tax avoidance positively correlates with idiosyncratic risk, while integrated reporting strengthens these relationships. In contrast, income smoothing is not associated with idiosyncratic risk. However, the interaction between income smoothing and integrated reporting is negatively associated with idiosyncratic risk. Our finding proves that idiosyncratic risk can be costly due to porous corporate policies. It bridges investors understanding of idiosyncratic risk and improves their foresight, allowing them to anticipate managers’ transgression. A better understanding of idiosyncratic risk may also help local tax authorities to improve compliance risk management for taxation purposes. This study demonstrates that market regulators may benefit from enhanced integrated reporting implementation by listed companies.
 Novelty : This study includes integrated reporting, which encourages companies to be more transparent in providing information to the public, as a moderating variable in testing the effect of income smoothing and tax avoidance on idiosyncratic risk, which are rarely used in previous references.
 Keywords : Idiosyncratic Risk; Income Smoothing; Tax Avoidance; Integrated Reporting; Manufacturing Company

The heterogeneous effects of conflict on education: A spatial analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

Armed conflicts are expected to be harmful to education but micro-level studies find at times contradicting results. Therefore, this article identifies under which conditions and to what extent armed conflicts harm the long-term educational attainment of children in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. By combining 66 rounds of DHS surveys with geo-coded conflict information, our study contextualizes the findings of a series of country-specific case studies on the effects of conflict on education, and provides evidence on the mechanisms through which these effects occur. Our main identification strategy compares educational losses of youth living within the same household, while also controlling for local weather shocks and countrywide dynamics in education. The effects of conflict on education are strongly context-dependent. High-intensity conflicts reduce local educational attainment on average, although this effect becomes insignificant in strong autocracies. By contrast, education is generally unaffected by localized low-intensity conflict. Human capital loss due to conflict is most severely felt in weak states, and in response to non-state based conflicts, highlighting the importance of state capacity in mediating the educational costs of local conflicts.

Left-Behind Children’s Cognitive Development in China: Gain in Financial Capital Versus Loss in Parental Capital

This study proposes a framework combining economic improvement and the disruption within family interactions to disentangle the effect of parental migration on left-behind children’s development. We proposed a concept of parental capital, which refers to the cultivated interactions between the primary caregiver and the child. The disruption effect is theorized here as loss in parental capital, that the decrease in frequency and stability of interactions between children and the primary caregiver caused by parental migration. This research draws on the 2012 China Urbanization and Labor Migration Survey (CULMS), a nationally representative dataset including a substantial migrant population. Our results show that the loss in parental capital mediates almost all of the adverse effects of parental absence. In addition, parental capital doesn’t significantly mediate the effect of father migration on children’s cognitive development, but it has substantial explaining power in the disadvantage of children with dual-parent migration.

EDUCATIONAL MIGRATION ENVIRONMENT IN CARPATHIAN REGION: MAJOR PROCESS MANAGEMENT DIRECTIONS

The manuscript addresses the problem areas of the educational migration environment in the oblasts of the Carpathian region and the main directions of their regulation. The educational migration environment is examined across main components: educational migration capacity (characterizes educational and informational conditions); academic environment quality (characterizes educational-scientific conditions); educational migration motivation (shows socio-economic, socio-demographic, and political conditions); cooperation of universities and industry in research (innovative conditions); and institutional conditions in the educational domain. The aggregate estimate of the components (integral index) shows the positions of the oblasts of the Carpathian region by the state of the educational migration environment. The conclusion on the objective need to monitor the condition of migration activity and form the system of its informational and analytical framework is made. The tools and measures to regulate educational migration are suggested to reduce the paces of educational migration and prevent possible losses of human capital. Implementation of suggested public policy measures will minimize the risks for the country and its regions caused by devaluation and loss of resources capacity and human capital of domestic higher education institutions and scientific schools and collapse of socio-cultural foundations of labor markets and educational services development. The main directions of regulating the educational migration environment in the domains of public social, scientific-technological, economic, educational, and informational policies are outlined.

Теоретичні засади та підходи до модернізації закладів вищої освіти на базі концепції сталого розвитку

In recent years, higher education institutions have been developing under the influence of atypical, unpredictable, powerful exogenous challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant transformations in the educational, research, and international activities of universities, transferring most communications to an online format (distance learning, remote work, meetings with colleagues and communication with partners in the form of video conferencing, making use of modern digital technologies). With the beginning of russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, educational institutions are suffering enormous losses both in human capital (departure of scientific and pedagogical staff and students of higher education abroad, mobilization, injury, captivity, death of both employees and students) and in material and technical support (damage or destruction of buildings, laboratories, destruction or theft of equipment, etc.). The authors of the article note that the post-war modernization of Ukrainian universities should be implemented on the basis of the conception of sustainable development, covering various areas of their activities, and not limited exclusively to restoration to the pre-war state. The aim of the article is to systematize scientific approaches to the study of the processes of modernization of higher education institutions on the basis of the conception of sustainable development. To achieve the goal, the method of content analysis was used to study scientific publications of foreign scientists devoted to the study of various aspects of sustainable development of higher education institutions. On the basis of the carried out study, the following main groups of scientific approaches have been allocated: institutional, material-ecological, process, experimental-search, stakeholder (partnership), and structural-functional approaches. The authors conclude that, given the multifaceted nature of the processes of modernization of higher education institutions on the basis of the conception of sustainable development, it appears more balanced to apply an integrated approach to the related research work.

Intellectual capital as a factor of Ukraine’s competitiveness in the conditions of war

In the conditions of the digital economy, intellectual capital is a leading factor in the formation of national competitiveness. Countries with a high level of development of intellectual capital traditionally occupy the first positions in the ranking of global competitiveness, have competitive advantages in global competition and on world markets. As a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the intellectual capital of Ukraine suffered huge losses and destruction. During hostilities, Ukrainians die, intellectual resources and values are destroyed. The paper analyzes the loss of intellectual capital from the point of view of loss of human capital, structural capital, and relationship capital. It is considered what functions intellectual capital performs in the economy. Based on the analysis of the Reports of international organizations, the main global trends in the development of IC have been determined. Based on the analysis, it was determined how intellectual capital can become a growth factor for Ukraine in the period of post-war recovery, will allow our country to maintain its competitiveness on world markets and the ability for sustainable economic development. The effectiveness of state programs and government actions taken in 2023 to return specialists to Ukraine has been analyzed. The authors proposed a number of recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of state policy in the field of protection and preservation of national intellectual capital in wartime conditions, developed a number of proposals, the implementation of which will allow the return of a part of Ukrainian migrants to the country, which will contribute to the restoration of Ukraine’s human capital.

Внутрішньополітичні загрози під час війни та у повоєнний час: пошук шляхів мінімізації

The article considers the key internal political threats for Ukraine, which are relevant during the war, as well as have the potential to remain in the reconstruction period. The article is based on the materials of the project, made by National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) „Analysis of threats to national security in the sphere of internal policy” [1]. A two-stage expert survey was conducted within the framework of this project. The experts of the project were the employees of the NISS and about 50 specialists (scientists, nongovernmental activists, public administratorі, journalists), who represent national and regional institutions. At the first stage, experts were asked to identify three internal political threats that, in their opinion, pose the greatest danger to the country. Based on the received data, a list of the most relevant threats was formed. At the second stage, the same experts determined the destabilizing potential and probability of realization of each of the threats on a five-point scale. According to the project participants, the biggest risks for internal political stability are caused primarily by: corruption; problems of government efficiency and stability of state institutions; the potential for horizontal disintegration of society; the presence of instruments of Russian influence – the UOC (MP), pro-Russian politicians and information resources; demographic losses, depopulation, loss of human capital. Both the destabilizing potential and the probability of threats will increase during the period of reconstruction, compared to the period of martial law. The article concludes that the effective counteraction of the state and society to internal political threats is an important factor in Ukraine's resilience to Russian aggression, as well as successful reconstruction and modernization after the end of the war.

УПРАВЛІННЯ ФІНАНСОВИМИ РИЗИКАМИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

The article examines the concepts of "risk" and "financial risk". The opinion of scientists and researchers of national and foreign financial literature is given. Uncertainty is an unavoidable circumstance of the functioning of any economic unit, that is why risk is a component of the results of management decisions. Risk is the result of uncertainty. The appearance of uncertainty is caused, first of all, by the fact that the main processes related to entrepreneurship are not initially deterministic. Financial risk is the possibility or probability of the occurrence of unplanned financial expenses in a situation of uncertainty of the circumstances of the activity. The financial risk management system consists of a set of measures aimed at identifying and preventing possible threats and problems. The main task of financial risk management is to reduce the impact of possible negative impacts and threats, as well as to use the identified opportunities with maximum benefit. A significant part of the work is focused on identifying and identifying the financial risks to the economy of Ukraine caused by military actions, in particular, the loss of human capital, the destruction of social and communal infrastructure by the aggressor, the reduction of production, the shortage of energy resources, the increase in the budget deficit and public debt, inflation, the reduction of banking lending and commodity export and others. The essence, goals and objectives of financial risk management are considered. The main principles and directions of financial risk management are analyzed. The relevance of effective management of financial risks is especially acute in the period of economic crisis and martial law in the country. This is due to the fact that the crisis caused by the coronavirus transformed into an economic crisis as a result of military operations on the territory of Ukraine, which has significant negative and long-term consequences for the country's financial sector. Not every financial system of the highly developed states of the world could withstand a number of challenges caused by the war. Thanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people are able to live, work and rebuild the country.

INVESTMENT RISK ASSESSMENT

Either independent uncertainty or the investor's perspective on capital loss might be used to describe it. The former is brought on by the inability of the external environment to precisely control changes. The investor may be aware of and accept a specific chance of random events, which is also established. As a result, risk describes the outcomes of decisions made. Interest rate, currency, buying power (inflation), market, default, management, business, financial, bankruptcy, liquidity, price fluctuations, reinvestment, redemption on demand, fungibility, and political risks are distinguished from one another. An investor must measure risks in order to manage them. This may be achieved by calculating price changes, return rates, and risks associated with the intended investment.

Do Exogenous Shocks in Macroeconomic Variables Respond to Changes in Stock Prices?

The research aims to examine the unexpected changes in stock prices due to external shocks given to the macroeconomic variables to forecast future stock market returns. The study applies two econometric models such as «Variance Decomposition» (VDC) and «Impulse Response Function» (IRF) for examining the exogenous shocks in macroeconomic variables respond to changes in stock prices. Monthly time series data of five significant macroeconomic variables Real Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Crude Oil Prices, and Trade Openness, taken as independent variables and BSE SENSEX as a dependent variable. The research period is from Jan 2009 to Dec 2019. The study has taken the responsibility to reveal a few strong evidences for changes in stock prices due to exogenous shocks in Exchange Rate, Trade Openness, Inflation, and Interest rate along with crude oil prices. According to the results, changes in the stock market are due to external factors like changes in dividend policy or capital loss, and some changes in the stock market are due to its own innovative shocks. This study suggests to reduce unexpected changes in stock prices frequently, companies should control capital loss and focus on stable return/dividend policies. There are divergent views in the literature review in the context of measures of these variables, however no research has been done on exogenous shocks in macroeconomic variables to BSE SENSEX for the Indian stock market with this particular data set and duration.

The direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases in Brazil.

To evaluate the direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases (such as coronary heart disease and stroke) by sex and age group, attributed to the excessive consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat in Brazil. The data for estimating the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) corresponding to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans-fat were obtained from the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018. The calculation of direct costs for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) was made from the accounting sum of costs with hospitalizations and outpatient care found in the National Health System (Hospital Information System and Outpatient Information System), from 2017 to 2019, including the costs of treatment, such as medical consultations, medical procedures, and drugs. Regarding the indirect costs, they were measured by the loss of human capital, given the premature death, resulting in loss of productivity. To define the attributable costs, they were multiplied by the PAF. Higher burden of CVD attributable to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat were observed in younger individuals, which progressively decreased with advancing age, but still generated economic costs in the order of US$ 7.18 billion, in addition to 1.53 million productive years of life lost (YLL) to premature death, if considering salt as an inducer. Although attributable burden of CVD is higher among younger individuals, the highest costs are associated with males aged 45 to 74 years old for direct costs and 45 to 64 years old for indirect costs. The attributable fractions to consumption of salt are the ones that cause the most effects on CVD, followed by saturated fat and trans fat, with direct and indirect costs being higher for males.

Universities of Ukraine in Conditions of Full-Scale Russian Invasion: Threats, Challenges and New Prospects

The impact of russian troops full-scale invasion against Ukrainian territory on the national education system functioning was identified and analyzed, threats to the further development of the educational sector in particular higher education, related to the loss of the human capital, the destruction of educational and scientific infrastructure were characterized. The author substantiates the conditions of university activities stabilization in terms of temporary relocation.
 The basic components of the audit of the available resources of the universities’ functioning in terms of relocation were identified and their characteristic was provided (audit of personnel and the contingent of students, scientific and pedagogical staff and employees, management audit, communication audit (external and internal), partnership audit and audit of the material and technical base of the university). The basic components of the strategic development in the conditions of the temporary relocation from the stabilization strategy to breakthrough strategy were proposed, based on the case of Mariupol State University (MSU).
 The basic components that determine the process of the MSU development stabilization in the conditions of temporary relocation were substantiated (reviewing the existing educational programs, development strategy renewal, creation of a new material and technical base in the area of relocation, maximum use of the advantages of the “window of opportunities”, providing the access to all electronic platforms and services, organization of a fundraising campaign, Humanitarian Aid Centre of the University establishment). The author proposes the basic components of the breakthrough development strategy for preserving the identity of the university and MSU staff including rebranding, digitalization, internationalization, development and approval of a new educational concept, development of own material and technical base, implementation of the university social and humanitarian mission and approval of the university as an institute of public diplomacy.

COVID-19 and Social Capital Loss: The Results of a Campus Outbreak.

This study examines the effects of a COVID-19 outbreak on levels of social capital on a college campus, drawing on survey data collected from students at two colleges-one that experienced an outbreak and one that did not. Social capital is examined as an individual level resource and as a campus level normative tool used to fight collective action problems. We test the hypothesis that the outbreak, as a "shock" to the campus, diminished social capital. We also test hypotheses on gender, race, and ethnicity and social capital, informed by prior research. Our findings suggest that the outbreak did reduce social capital at both the individual and campus levels, though individual social capital had a mitigating effect that increased campus social capital. We find also that gender was significantly linked to campus social capital, while race was predictive of individual level social capital.

The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China

Frequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine health impact and economic assessment methods to comprehensively evaluate the entire heatwave-related PTB burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Here, we show that during 2010-2020, an average of 13,262 (95%CI 6,962-18,802) PTBs occurred annually due to heatwave exposure in China. In simulated scenarios, 25.8% (95%CI 17.1%-34.5%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which further result in substantial human capital losses, estimated at over $1 billion costs. Our findings will provide additional impetus for introducing more stringent climate mitigation policies and also call for more sufficient adaptations to reduce heatwave detriments to newborn.

ОЦІНКА ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИХ ВТРАТ УКРАЇНИ ВНАСЛІДОК РОСІЙСЬКО-УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ ВІЙНИ

The final assessment ofwar losses may not be available until some time after the end of the war, but this does not mean that any interim assessment is meaningless. Ukraine's losses from the war are not only losses of infrastructure, movable or immovable property destroyed as aresult of hostilities. After all, the infrastructure can be restored, houses and factories can be rebuilt. The most valuable losses from war are the losses of people who give their lives for their land. Often these are losses of people of working, reproductive age, which gives reason to say that these are losses of human capital.Often these are losses of people of working, reproductive age, which gives reason to say that these are losses of human capital. The difficulty in estimating such losses lies in the fact that official information is not published. Only some fragments of information are sometimes voiced by state officials.Methods: The main methods of the conducted research are the analysis, synthesis, and processing of information obtained as a result of sociological research conducted by the Razumkov Center, Gradus Research Company, EWL Migration Platform, EWL Migrant Support Fund on the Labor Market, and the Center for East European Studies of the University of Warsaw.Results: We can identify themain reasons for the loss of the population of Ukraine: 1. The first reason for the reduction of the population is high mortality during the war and the increase in mortality in the post-war period due to injuries and wounds received in the war, as well asdue to experienced stresses and psychological problems. 2. Decreasing birth rate due to the effects of war and likely decreasing birth rate due to fewer women of reproductive age. 3. "Aging" of the population. 4. Loss of territory. 5. Migration factor. 6.Deportation.Discussion: Instead, in addition to losses, Ukraine received international recognition and international subjectivity, increased national self-awareness of citizens, complete derussification of society, more competent citizens and a powerfulvolunteer movement, which has no analogues in the world.

EE585 Human Capital Loss Associated With Ill-Health: Evidence from Patients With End-Stage Kidney Disease in Taiwan

EE585 Human Capital Loss Associated With Ill-Health: Evidence from Patients With End-Stage Kidney Disease in Taiwan

A review of small-scale marine fisheries in the United States: Definitions, scale, drivers of change, and policy gaps

Small-scale fisheries make important socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental contributions to society, yet are often poorly characterized. In the United States, there is not a formal definition of the term “small-scale” in fisheries, making it difficult to monitor the status of the sector, discern drivers of change, or design and implement targeted policies that ensure its long-term viability. In this paper, we aim to bring attention to the sector by: (1) developing a set of preliminary definitions of small-scale fisheries; (2) describing the diversity, catch composition, and economic value of landings harvested by the sector; and (3) summarizing key drivers of change. We identify 1019 small-scale fishing “units” in the United States, which can be understood as semi-discrete fisheries based on five characteristics. Those who participate in these fisheries collectively harvest 350 commercially reported taxa. We estimate that these fisheries represented between 1 % and 25 % of the total commercial landings in the United States by weight and as much as 68 % of total value. Climate change and loss of social capital are viewed as key threats to small-scale fisheries, as is the decline of working waterfront infrastructure, nearshore habitat loss and degradation, and the privatization of access privileges. We identify a range of impediments to studying the sector in the United States and offer recommendations for improving data collection, monitoring, evaluation long-term. To support small-scale fisheries through improved decision-making, systematic changes to the ways in which data are collected and archived are critically needed.

The natural capital of the Colombian Orinoco River basin. intact ecosystems with high rates of anthropogenic change

ABSTRACT The Orinoco basin is one of the most important hydrologic systems in South America. The Colombian Orinoco basin occupies an area of approx. thirty-four million hectares, located in the country's east. The literature about the economic valuation of ecosystem services (ES) and the spatial information on natural resources in the Colombian Orinoco basin was revised through various information sources to document the earliest approximation to the state, spatial distribution, and economic value of the natural capital at the scale of biomes, specific ecosystems, and political-administrative units. Our assessment estimated a natural capital loss of 200 billion Int.$2020/year (74% of Colombian GDP in 2020) and a remnant natural capital worth 296 billion Int.$2020/year (more than 100% of Colombia's GDP in 2020) for twelve ecosystem services. This research proves that a potential expansion in livestock production systems will generate an additional loss of natural capital of approximately 282 billion Int.$2020/year. Additionally, we include an analysis based on the GLOBIO4 initiative models, identifying future natural capital losses between 4.8 and 33 billion Int.$2020/year. Lastly, the policy challenges and gaps in research and management concerning this remaining natural capital in the Colombian Orinoco basin are pointed out.

Responses to COVID-19 with probabilistic programming.

The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the twenty-first century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come with a substantial price tag. It is crucial for governments to form anti-virus strategies that balance the trade-off between protecting public health and minimizing the economic cost. This work proposes a probabilistic programming method to quantify the efficiency of major initial non-pharmaceutical interventions. We present a generative simulation model that accounts for the economic and human capital cost of adopting such strategies, and provide an end-to-end pipeline to simulate the virus spread and the incurred loss of various policy combinations. By investigating the national response in 10 countries covering four continents, we found that social distancing coupled with contact tracing is the most successful policy, reducing the virus transmission rate by 96% along with a 98% reduction in economic and human capital loss. Together with experimental results, we open-sourced a framework to test the efficacy of each policy combination.