Внутрішньополітичні загрози під час війни та у повоєнний час: пошук шляхів мінімізації

Abstract

The article considers the key internal political threats for Ukraine, which are relevant during the war, as well as have the potential to remain in the reconstruction period. The article is based on the materials of the project, made by National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) „Analysis of threats to national security in the sphere of internal policy” [1]. A two-stage expert survey was conducted within the framework of this project. The experts of the project were the employees of the NISS and about 50 specialists (scientists, nongovernmental activists, public administratorі, journalists), who represent national and regional institutions. At the first stage, experts were asked to identify three internal political threats that, in their opinion, pose the greatest danger to the country. Based on the received data, a list of the most relevant threats was formed. At the second stage, the same experts determined the destabilizing potential and probability of realization of each of the threats on a five-point scale. According to the project participants, the biggest risks for internal political stability are caused primarily by: corruption; problems of government efficiency and stability of state institutions; the potential for horizontal disintegration of society; the presence of instruments of Russian influence – the UOC (MP), pro-Russian politicians and information resources; demographic losses, depopulation, loss of human capital. Both the destabilizing potential and the probability of threats will increase during the period of reconstruction, compared to the period of martial law. The article concludes that the effective counteraction of the state and society to internal political threats is an important factor in Ukraine's resilience to Russian aggression, as well as successful reconstruction and modernization after the end of the war.