Preparing to Maximise Losers’ Consent in Contested Sovereignty Referendums: The Potential Case of Referendums on Irish Unification

Abstract

Peaceful transitions in power, after elections or referendums, depend upon the acceptance of the outcomes of the contests by those who have lost – a phenomenon known as ‘losers’ consent’. Achieving losers’ consent is arguably most acute in contested sovereignty referendums. A public opinion strategy is required by those who advocate changing the sovereign status of a territory and who are subject to three constraints: (i) their wish to maximise losers’ consent, (ii) their need to retain their support base, and (iii) their need to persuade undecided voters. The strategy involves generating, based on findings from specially designed studies of public opinion, an optimised version of the alternative to the status quo – and advocating that version before the referendum. The strategy in action is illustrated with potential referendums on Irish unification, a ‘typical’ case because it poses the core challenges – on timing, content and persuasion – addressed by our strategy.