Capita GNI Research Articles

Центр-периферийные отношения в Европе: демографический аспект

The paper deals with the impact of centre-periphery relations on the demographic change in Europe in the 21st century. The reasons why the projections presented by Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in 1999 underestimated the future population growth in France, Italy, Spain and UK are analyzed. Current statistics and UN population projections (2012 revision) demonstrate that the idea of the total depopulation coming in Europe, commonly held there over the 20th century, is out of date. In fact, depopulation is far from being total; it is common only in peripheral countries of Europe, not in semi-peripheral and central ones (Germany is an exception). This conclusion is corroborated by the close positive correlation (r=0.754) between per capita GNI and the rate of population increase in 34 European countries between 2000 and 2012. The alarmist perspective of ageing is criticized. It is argued that ageing is often unreasonably blamed for negative effects which, in fact, are caused by other faults of socioeconomic system. So, the recent number of unemployed in Spain (5.7 millions) is four times more than the expected decrease in the number of people aged 20 to 64 between 2010 and 2030 (1.4 millions). The prospective institutional and structural consequences of the post-crisis shifting of immigration flows from Spain to Germany are considered. Given this shifting, the further expansion of the peripheral and semi-peripheral enclaves in German economy seems to be verisimilar. Nevertheless, the centripetal migration maintains, like before, the centre-peripheral differences in Europe. The centre concentrates knowledge-intensive services and attracts the most qualified migrants; semi-periphery receives the less qualified ones; the periphery is the source of labour force for both the centre and the semi-periphery.

Credit Rating Agencies: the Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings

The aim of this paper is to investigate the significance of a set of macroeconomic variables in the assessment of the sovereign ratings provided by the three main credit rating agencies in different periods in time and for countries belonging to different categorizations. Ratings have a great economic importance as they constitute the main drivers for attracting foreign investments and can influence the dynamics of interest rates. By grouping the countries according to levels of development and indebtedness, we provide the analysis of the weights attributed to each one of the macroeconomic indicators included in the analysis. Furthermore, it is of interest to examine how ratings are constructed and if they exhibit a historical coherence that goes beyond the economic cycles. The analysis rests on an unbalanced panel of 139 countries in the period 1975-2010. In order to provide an answer to ratings’ historical coherence, we selected two sub-periods: 1975-1996 and from 1997 onwards. Static estimates findings show that per capita GNI, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, government debt and default history significantly affect ratings, while GNI growth and current account balance are less relevant. Furthermore, Granger causality results underline that a one-way causality runs from average ratings to economic growth.

Credit Rating Agencies: The Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings

The aim of this paper is to investigate the significance of a set of macroeconomic variables in the assessment of the sovereign ratings provided by the three main credit rating agencies in different periods in time and for countries belonging to different categorizations. Ratings have a great economic importance as they constitute the main drivers for attracting foreign investments and can influence the dynamics of interest rates. By grouping the countries according to levels of development and indebtedness, we provide the analysis of the weights attributed to each one of the macroeconomic indicators included in the analysis. Furthermore, it is of interest to examine how ratings are constructed and if they exhibit a historical coherence that goes be yond the economic cycles. The analysis rests on an unbalanced panel of 139 countries in the period 1975-2010. In order to provide an answer to ratings’ historical coherence, we selected two sub-periods: 1975-1996 and from 1997 onwards. Static estimates findings show that per capita GNI, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, government debt and default history significantly affect ratings, while GNI growth and current account balance are less relevant. Furthermore, Granger causality results underline that a one-way causality runs from average ratings to economic growth.

Poverty in Agrarian Developing Economies

This paper examines the determinants of poverty in agrarian developing economies. Based on data from the World Bank and a sample of thirty agrarian developing economies we find that the fraction of the population below the national poverty line is linearly dependent on urbanization as measured by the fraction of the total population living in urban areas, the maternal mortality ratio, the level of development as measured by purchasing power parity per capita gross national income, and the fraction of births attended by skilled health staff. We observe that the coefficient estimate of one explanatory variable, namely, the fraction of births attended by skilled health staff does not have its expected sign, possibly to the collinearity between this variable and the maternal mortality ratio as well as with the level of purchasing power parity per capita GNI. Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in agrarian developing countries focus on appropriate policies in order to reduce poverty.

A Study of Bank Failure Resolution

Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the legal powers given by countries to their regulators to carry out resolution of failed banks. Methodology: The paper uses a World Bank database of bank regulation across 148 countries. The data is used to build indices of regulatory powers for failed bank resolution. The indices represent the powers given to regulators to intervene, restructure and liquidate failed banks. The immunity granted to regulators for actions taken to resolve failed banks is also measured through an index. Independent variables representing the occurrence of a systemic or non-systemic crisis; levels of creditors’ rights and law and order; per capita GNI and growth in GDP; and the level of bank deposits to GDP are used in a cross sectional regression to isolate determinants of regulatory powers of bank resolution. Findings: The analysis finds that countries with weak creditors’ rights and those that have undergone systemic or non-systemic crises are more likely to grant powers of extra judicial liquidation to regulators. This is more likely to happen in countries with lower levels of GNI per capita. Countries that have undergone systemic crises are also more likely to grant judicial immunity to actions taken by their regulators. Judicial immunity is likely to be granted in countries with comparatively lower levels of GNI per capita but with healthier law and order environments. The occurrence of a systemic crisis does not significantly influence the powers given to regulators to intervene or restructure banks or restrict capital outgos to shareholders. Implications: The results of the paper have important implications for design of bank resolution mechanisms. The results suggest that countries that have suffered a systemic crisis and with sub-optimum levels of creditors’ rights find value in providing their regulators with powers to liquidate failed banks. Such countries also find value in immunizing their regulators against legal action questioning their decisions. Value: This is the first empirical analysis of bank failure resolution mechanisms. The study uses data on 91 countries.

Asymmetric Extreme Sampling, Developed Versus Emerging Countries, and the Forward Premium Puzzle

We analyse the validity of UIP in a panel of 41 currencies over the time window 1975-2010. We confirm that in general UIP does not hold for developed countries, whereas it does hold for emerging countries. This result is found for various metrics of ‘developed’ and ‘emerging’ countries (IMF country classification, per capita GNI, inflation, inflation volatility). We confirm that UIP may hold in the extremes for developed countries, but this result is only found in the right-hand side tail of interest rate differentials (IRDs). Contrasting with earlier work (that assumed absolute IRDs) our findings suggest an asymmetric relationship. For emerging countries we find an inverse relationship, namely UIP does not hold in the extremes but it does hold in the centre 80% of observations.

Toward an Understanding of Software Piracy in Developed and Emerging Economies

The software industry loses billions of dollars annually to software piracy and has raised awareness of the high software piracy rates worldwide, particularly in emerging economies. In this paper, the authors build a general model of software piracy that includes three economic and social factors suggested by the literature, including per capita GNI, the relative size of a country’s IT market, and government corruption. The paper demonstrates that the relationship between national software piracy and per capita GNI is nonlinear, with additional gains in per capita GNI, producing marginally smaller reductions in software piracy. No structural variation is found in the model with respect to whether an economy is developed or emerging, using the OECD membership as a proxy. However, a structural break did exist with respect to the relative size of a country’s IT market. The analysis suggests that the classification of an economy as developed or emerging does not necessarily advance the understanding of the causal mechanisms that give rise to software piracy. Findings suggest that more insight can be gained by focusing on strategies that take into account the relative size of a country’s IT market.

Barriers to treatment for visceral leishmaniasis in hyperendemic areas: India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Brazil and Sudan

Context: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe and potentially fatal infection caused by the trypanosome parasite Leishmania sp. Over 90% of reported cases occur in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sudan, and Brazil, affecting mainly impoverished individuals and creating a significant economic burden through direct and indirect costs of treatment. Objectives: To identify the direct and indirect costs of VL treatment, compare these costs to household income, and identify the barriers to treatment in each of the five VL-endemic countries. Methods: Articles obtained through PubMed (US National Library of Medicine), EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were selected for relevance to VL treatment, costs for all forms of amphotericin B, miltefosine, paromomycin, and antimony compounds, and healthcare costs in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Brazil, and Sudan. Healthcare statistics were obtained from the World Health Organization Statistical Information System, Médecins Sans Frontieres, and each country's national health ministry. Results: Per capita GDP, per capita GNI, cost of drugs, and hospitalization expenses differ by up to 10-fold in each of the five countries where VL is hyperendemic, resulting in unequal barriers to treatment. We found that the cost of specific drugs influences the choice of therapy. Conclusions: Poverty and VL treatment-related costs cause potential limitations in the provision of full and efficacious treatment, which may result in further dissemination of the disease. Effective nonparenteral antileishmania drugs would provide a significant advantage in reducing the barriers to VL treatment.

Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries

The risk of dying from cervical cancer is disproportionately borne by women in developing countries. Two new vaccines are highly effective in preventing HPV 16,18 infection, responsible for approximately 70% of cervical cancer, in girls not previously infected. The GAVI Alliance (GAVI) provides technical assistance and financial support for immunization in the world's poorest countries. Using population-based and epidemiologic data for 72 GAVI-eligible countries we estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted years of life (DALYs) averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) associated with HPV 16,18 vaccination of young adolescent girls. In addition to vaccine coverage and efficacy, relative and absolute cancer reduction depended on underlying incidence, proportion attributable to HPV types 16 and 18, population age-structure and competing mortality. With 70% coverage, mean reduction in the lifetime risk of cancer is below 40% in some countries (e.g., Nigeria, Ghana) and above 50% in others (e.g., India, Uganda, Kenya). At I$10 per vaccinated girl (∼$2.00 per dose assuming three doses, plus wastage, administration, program support) vaccination was cost-effective in all countries using a per capita GDP threshold; for 49 of 72 countries, the cost per DALY averted was less than I$100 and for 59 countries, it was less than I$200. Taking into account country-specific assumptions (per capita GNI, DPT3 coverage, percentage of girls who are enrolled in fifth grade) for the year of introduction, percent coverage achieved in the first year, and years to maximum coverage, a 10-year modeled scenario prevented the future deaths of ∼2 million women vaccinated as adolescents. Despite favorable cost-effectiveness, assessment of financial costs raised concerns about affordability; as the cost per vaccinated girl was increased from I$10 to I$25 (approximately $2 to $5 per dose), the financial costs for the 10-year scenario increased from >US$ 900 million to US$ 2.25 billion. Provided high coverage of young adolescent girls is feasible, and vaccine costs are lowered, HPV 16,18 vaccination could be very cost-effective even in the poorest countries, and provide comparable value for resources to other new vaccines such as rotavirus.

Poverty and Civil War: What Policymakers Need to Know

Poverty and Civil War: What Policymakers Need to Know