Capita GDP Growth Rate Research Articles

Carbon Kuznets curve in China: Nighttime light analysis in prefecture-level cities

Analysing the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions may help China to determine how to reduce carbon emissions. This study examined 221 Chinese prefecture-level cities using data from 2003 to 2018 to investigate the possible inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, based on per capita nighttime light brightness. This revealed a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita nighttime and carbon emissions with a per capita GDP of 139.8 thousand Yuan corresponding to the turning point. For China to achieve its carbon emissions peak before 2030, the per capita GDP growth rate would need to be at least 6.6 %. Therefore, for help prefecture-level cities to achieve peak carbon, they must strive towards high-quality economic growth and accelerate transformation of economic growth modes to improve low-carbon pilot policies, and such projects should be implemented in more cities. Efforts to achieve peak should be accelerated first in eastern cities and later in western cities.

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative: The case of Pakistan

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Pakistan using the synthetic control method. Based on the panel data of 42 non-BRI countries, we construct a synthetic Pakistan to estimate the economic growth trend of the country without the BRI. By comparing the actual economy with the synthetic case, our results show that the BRI increases the annual per capita GDP growth rate of Pakistan from 3.04% to 4.69% for the period 2013–2018. Pakistan’s per capita GDP in 2018 would have been Int$5,022 instead of Int$5,567 if the BRI had not existed. The outcomes of the in-time placebo test, in-place placebo test, and dropping sample test all confirm the robust impact of the BRI on Pakistan.

Optimal threshold taxation: An empirical investigation for developing economies

In this study, we empirically assess both linear and nonlinear relationships between the total tax burden and various tax items with real per capita GDP growth rates for 41 developing countries between 1990 and 2019. We use panel data techniques to evaluate the impact of taxation, as a percentage of GDP, on economic growth in both the short and long run perspectives, and to identify threshold values for different types of taxes. In addition to contributing to previous evidence on the linear effects, our results support the existence of nonlinearities and motivate policies aimed at raising certain tax revenues without hindering economic growth.

Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B

Population forecasting models play an important role in analyzing current population processes and predicting their future development. The Republic of the Congo saw population growth from 1.02 million to 5.66 million people between 1960 and 2021. This is an increase of 455.6% over 61 years. Urbanization is a trend that is accelerating and growing at a 3.2% yearly rate with the country's current economic situation, which is not ideal. The objective of this study is to show and forecast the population growth rate in Congo B using the ARIMAX system. Based on the data of per capita GDP and population growth rate in Congo B from 1982 to 2019, this paper uses per capita GDP as the input variable and population growth rate as the response variable and uses the ARIMAX model for research. The predictions for Congo B's population growth rate in 2020-2024 were correct. The results were 11.77‰, 11.60‰, 11.55‰, 11.34‰, 11.03‰, respectively. This indicates a country with a lower population growth rate. The results of this work allow the government and Congolese leaders to use them as a reference when creating a baseline and responsible growth strategy because they show that the rate of population expansion in Congo B will slow over the next five years and that migration will remain moderate.

Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices in Bosnia And Herzegovina

Abstract Economic theory and practice are not acquainted with any unique set of macroeconomic factors that affect real estate prices. The very complexity of this phenomenon relativizes any attempt to establish an unchanged list of macroeconomic factors in BiH. The aim of the research in this paper is to analyze the impact of selected macroeconomic indicators on real estate prices in BiH, in the period from 2007 to 2019. Out of numerous macroeconomic factors that affect real estate prices (real estate prices are viewed as: the value of construction works done and as the value of new dwellings - new construction), 12 macroeconomic factors were singled out: nominal gross domestic product, real GDP growth rate, industrial production growth rate, GDP per capita, average net wages, imports and exports, household deposits in commercial banks, interest rate (housing loans, annual, %), loans to households, household final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and government final consumption expenditure. Starting from the hypothesis that macroeconomic factors affect real estate prices, it has been concluded that the selected factors significantly determine real estate prices and that most of the predictor variables defined in the model are significant, in terms of impact on the movement of GDP and real estate prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period analyzed. The greatest impact on real estate prices is by household final consumption expenditure, GDP per capita, nominal GDP, interest rate, household deposits and real GDP growth rate. The research used factor analysis (reduction of macroeconomic factors to the optimal number of factors that explain the analyzed phenomenon and its impact on real estate prices) and an extended multiple linear regression model with a statistical software program SPSS, version 21. Modeling the impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices has macroeconomic effects and benefits for the country and contributes to the growth and well-being of operators in the real estate market.

Government Effectiveness and Development: South Asian Perspective

This paper examines the impact of government effectiveness on the socio-economic development of eight South Asian countries by employing balanced panel data from 1999 to 2018. Random effects, ordinary regression, general trends are used to understand the impact of government performances. The empirical study confirms the insignificant effect of government effectiveness on the Human Development Index (HDI) as a measurement of socio-economic development. Conversely, good governance as a whole has a positive impact on HDI as well as per capita GDP growth rate. The study also indicates a puzzle of how a country or region having poor governance performs better in different socio-economic indicators.

Exportações e crescimento nas economias africanas

Este artigo analisa a relação entre exportações e a taxa de crescimento do PIB real per capita nas economias africanas. Parte-se do argumento de que não apenas o volume, mas também a composição das exportações é relevante para explicar o crescimento econômico. No caso dos países africanos, a pauta exportadora é bastante concentrada em bens primários, com alta participação de petróleo, minerais e produtos agrícolas. Deste modo, pretende-se avaliar se o tipo de produto exportado também influencia significativamente a dinâmica de crescimento das economias investigadas. Para isso, o trabalho utiliza a metodologia de análise de dados em painel para 52 países da África no período 1990-2014. Os resultados obtidos sugerem a existência de efeitos positivos das exportações sobre o crescimento dos países africanos no período. Contudo, verifica-se a relevância apenas das exportações de petróleo e minerais, ao passo que os produtos agrícolas parecem não colaborar para o crescimento do PIB per capita daquelas economias.

An Empirical Analysis of Jiangxi Province’s Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollution

Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the economic development in China has experienced a rapid growth stage. Statistics show that annual GDP has grown at an average rate of nearly 10%, and the annual per capita GDP growth rate has also approached 9%. With the rapid economic growth, the problem of environmental pollution across the country has become increasingly serious, and the environmental quality has been deteriorating, which has attracted the attention of many parties in the whole society. The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality has become a hot issue in various fields. First of all, this article introduces basic concepts such as economic development, environmental quality, environmental Kuznets curve, and the relationship between economic development and environmental quality. Afterwards, it analyzes the current situation of Jiangxi Province’s economy and environment from the aspects of Jiangxi Province’s economic aggregate, industrial structure, development mode, overall law of environmental quality, and industrial waste release. Secondly, this study constructs the evaluation index system of the economic and environmental relationship in Jiangxi Province and uses the principal component analysis method to screen the primary economic and environmental indicators, providing evaluation criteria for the establishment of the economic development and environmental quality relationship model of Jiangxi Province. Third, the relationship between the main economic environment indicators after the principal component analysis is simulated, and the EKC model of Jiangxi Province is established. The research results show that the environmental Kuznets curve in Jiangxi Province is not all the typical inverted U shape in developed countries, that is, environmental pollution does not necessarily show a trend of first rising and then falling with the increase of per capita income, but it appears as N-shaped, half of the inverted U shape, and even repeated fluctuations.

COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GROWTH PERFORMANCE BETWEEN INDIA AND NIGERIA

India and Nigeria were colonized by the British empire, got their independence within a given time range, and are among the largest growing economies among developing nations; they were ranked 1st and 3rd most populous among the common wealth countries respectively and both the countries houses significant population of malnourished, poor and food insecure people. The paper comparatively assessed the macroeconomic growth performance between the two countries using time series data that spanned from 1990-2020. Compound growth rate model was fitted to the data to confirm the trend of acceleration, deceleration or stagnation during the period. The results of the study revealed that mean values of GDP and GNI in US dollars at constant prices for India were higher than that of Nigeria by almost 7 times, while Nigeria`s per capita GDP was higher than that of India under the reference period. With respect to the GDP and per capita GDP growth rates, India recorded lower growth but more stable than Nigeria. Further, both the countries recorded highest GDP contributions from Service sector (46 per cent in India and 35 per cent in Nigeria). But the growth rate shows stability in Indian Service sector in contrast to the highest instability in agricultural sector. In Nigeria, on the other hand, agricultural sector got the highest growth contribution to GDP growth-though stagnant and instable, while service sector’s growth contribution to GDP growth was the lowest among other variables. It is recommended that increase budget share to agriculture through proper funding of research, credit support and extension service would help to repositioned agriculture back to its higher (of about 50 per cent) GDP contribution and compete vigorously with other economic sectors in income generation, employment opportunities and poverty reduction in both India and Nigeria.

Is the European Union still a convergence machine?

Abstract We investigate whether the European Union can be considered as a convergence machine after the 2008/2009 financial crisis. To do so, we econometrically test the relationship between the per capita GDP growth rate and macroeconomic variables in the period of 2004–2018, further subdivided into three periods: 2004–2008, 2009–2013 and 2014–2018. We hypothesize that the 2008/2009 financial crisis had a negative effect on the σ and β-convergence process. Our results support the convergence hypothesis, namely that the poor countries tend to grow faster than the rich countries. The convergence rates ranged between 1.71% and 4.51%. The negative effects of the crisis on convergence have been identified only for the absolute convergence. Our findings demonstrate that economic openness, inflation and government integrity have a positive impact on growth. The effects of unemployment have not been identified.

An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Japanese Monetary Policy Through a Statistical Mathematical Approach: a Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM)

Abstract In this paper, the authors offer a policy analysis about the problem of the effectiveness of the Japanese monetary policy in contrasting the last three main crises that the country has experienced from the 1990s to today: that of the Lost decade, that of 2008 and that caused by the pandemic of COVID-19. To this end, they present a small equilibrium model consisting of a system of simultaneous equations (SEM) identified by solving the consumption optimization problem of the representative household and the profit optimization problem of the representative firm. The SEM was estimated using the three-stage least squares method (3SLS) quarterly historical series, at constant prices, in the sample period Q1 1994 - Q2 2020. The result achieved by the authors is that the monetary policy has been inadequate to stimulate the per capita GDP growth rate, the private consumption, the investment, the actual inflation and the expected inflation. JEL classification numbers: C30, C40, C51, C60, E51. Keywords: Mathematical and statistical methods, Mathematical applications for Economics, Japanese monetary policy, Quantitative easing, Simultaneous equations model.

International Trade and Economic Misery in African Countries with Low Human Development

Puzzled by the demeaning level of poverty most African countries continue to grapple with despite their extensive participation in international trade, the study attempts to examine the encumbrances that tend to impede African countries from optimally reaping the developmental gains inherent in partaking in international trade, which seems to also worsen the economic misery the inhabitants endlessly contend with. The System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) estimation technique was used in the study which involves 17 African countries and spans from 1995 - 2018. While misery index is used to measure economic misery, the impact of international trade on economic misery is captured by means of its effect via economic misery, economic growth rate, balance of payment, total export, manufacture export and exchange rate. The results of the study reveal that balance of payments, total export, manufacture export, per capita GDP growth rate, exchange rate and lagged form of economic misery all have positive effect on economic misery. While the effects of total export, manufacture export, per capita GDP growth rate, and exchange rate on economic misery are significant, those of balance of payments and lagged form of economic misery are insignificant. While the study recommends that international trade be engaged strategically such that it results in favourable balance of payments, it also encourages the discarding of obsolete trade policies such as outright bans on importation of certain commodities. Bilateral trade agreements are recommended over multilateral trade agreements, since they are more mutually beneficial and binding on the parties involved

Re-examining the existence of a “resource curse”: A spatial heterogeneity perspective

The academic debate on whether there is a “resource curse” has lasted for nearly three decades. This paper aims to verify the existence of a “resource curse” with the proposed new model, named the generalised weighted least squares support vector panel regression (GWLS-SVPR) model, from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, in response to the debate of scholars. Our case study focuses on the data of 31 regions in China from 2009 to 2018. The results show that the impact of natural resources on economic growth has spatial correlation and heterogeneity, and different proxy variables have different conclusions. Overall, it is easier to conclude that there is a “resource curse” by using resource dependence as a substitute variable for natural resources than by using resource abundance. Using per capita GDP as the proxy variable of economic growth is easier to get the conclusion that there is no “resource curse” than per capita GDP growth rate. After considering both spatial heterogeneity and proxy variable differences, we conclude that a “resource curse” does exist in some regions of China, but there are obvious spatial differences.

Does Monetary Union Membership Affect Convergence in the European Union?

Abstract The objective of the article is to investigate the effects of the stage of integration on convergence in the European Union. The relationships between the selected macro-economic variables and per capita GDP growth rate are econometrically tested for the period 2004–2018 and three sub-periods: the pre-crisis period 2004–2008, the crisis period 2009–2013, and the post-crisis period 2014–2018. Convergence is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) semi-log regression based on cross-sectional data. The findings show that convergence rates range between 1.9 percent and 4.8 percent. The positive effects of deeper integration are identified, as well as the negative effects of the 2008/2009 crisis. The empirical results suggest that the selected variables have an impact on the per capita GDP growth rate in at least one analyzed period.

Population dynamics and environmental quality in Africa

The nexus of population dynamics and environmental degradation has been discussed widely in the extant literature. Most related studies have utilized carbon emission as a proxy of environmental quality. However, carbon emission does not capture the multidimensional nature of environmental degradation. To fill this gap, this study utilized the ecological footprint to capture environmental degradation because it is a more dynamic environmental quality measure. The paper examines the population-environmental degradation hypothesis for five populous African countries (DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania) using panel information from 1990 to 2019. The Cross-sectionally Augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) was employed to assess the relationship among the data – ecological footprint per capita (ECFP), population growth rate (POPG), population density (POPD), urban population growth rate (URBN), age structure of the population (AGES), per capita GDP growth rate (PGDP), energy consumption (ENEC), and trade openness (TRAD). The findings of the study revealed that POPG, POPD, AGES, PGDP, ENEC and TRAD increase environmental degradation. Urbanization (URBN) has no significant influence on environmental degradation in the selected African countries. The study concludes with policy prescriptions geared towards addressing population expansion and improving environmental quality.

Application of Hybrid Moran’s I Index and SE Model on the spatial Impact and time dradient changes of regional development

Spatial econometrics includes space, which has long been neglected in econometrics, into the model. To explore the two themes of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity is a branch of econometrics dealing with the spatial relationship of geographical units. Moran's I index test is a method to test the correlation of development in a spatial region, and the combination of spatial econometric model and Moran's I index test can add spatial effect to Moran's I index test and make a series of regression to get the regional correlation. According to the spatial econometric model, this paper collects the changes of per capita GDP scale level and real per capita GDP growth rate from 1980 to 2015, and applies Moran's model to the central, Western and eastern parts of China The results show that the spatial correlation of the development and growth of the eastern region is increasing year by year, the central region shows a fluctuating trend, and the spatial correlation of the western region shows a downward trend The change trend of I value predicts that the imbalance of regional development in China is gradually changing to the national development balance, which is consistent with the actual situation in China. It proves that the model combined with Moran's I index test is accurate and the prediction results are reliable.

Forecasting the potential and economic feasibility of power generation using biogas from food waste in Ghana: Evidence from Accra and Kumasi

Global environmental change is driven by food production. Biogas from food waste is a better source of clean energy. Ghana’s energy strategy targets a 10% increase in renewable energy and modern biomass in the national electricity generation mix. Studies on the assessment of electricity generation potential and economic feasibility of biogas to electricity projects in Ghana’s major cities are scarcely available. This study assesses the electricity generation potential of biogas from food waste through anaerobic digestion technology. The municipal solid waste generation potential of Accra and Kumasi was estimated from 2020 to 2039. The potential theoretical methane yield from food waste was calculated using Buswell’s equation. The study analyzed anaerobic digestion projects’ economic feasibility using the total life cycle cost, net present value, investment payback period, levelized cost of energy, and internal rate of return methods. A sensitivity analysis based on two scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) was performed to analyze the influence of changes in the composition of food waste, per capita waste generation rate, population growth rate, per capita GDP growth rate, discount rate, capacity factor, electricity generation efficiency, waste collection efficiency, and methane production potential on the economic feasibility of the projects. The main findings indicate that the amount of waste generation in Accra during the project life cycle is 899,000 t/y to 3,359,000 t/y, while that of Kumasi is 915,000 t/y to 3,159,000 t/y. The power generation potential of the project in Accra ranges from 80.43 to 300.49 GWh/y, and in Kumasi ranges from 60.63 to 209.31 GWh/y. Economically, the project is feasible in Accra and Kumasi. The net present value of the project in Accra and Kumasi is $217,800,000 and $156,100,000. The sensitivity analysis shows that the project is infeasible in all the cities with a discount rate exceeding 20%. When the discount rate exceeds 20%, the project becomes highly infeasible in Accra compared to Kumasi. This study will offer itself as scientific guidance for investment in biogas to electricity projects in Ghana’s cities.

Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Algeria: Empirical Study during the Period 1980-2015

Abstract In recent years, Algeria achieves significant progress in the economic and social condition of its population due to the improvement in most economic and social indicators, and the increase in the human development index from 0.577 in 1990 to 0.754 in 2018. However, this improvement is not equally shared between groups and different regions. Therefore, poverty and inequality persist and remain a major challenge of the Algerian government. In this paper, we attempt to study income inequality and its impact on economic growth in Algeria. To attend the aim of this study we explore the relationship between income inequality and economic growth over the period 1980-2015 based on the available data. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical studies, we use Autoregressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) model to explore the long-run relationship, and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short-run dynamics, the results indicate that economic growth as measured by the annual per capita GDP growth rate is associated negatively and significantly with inequality as measured by Gini coefficient, implying that in the long run, a 1% increase in income inequality will hurt economic growth in Algeria by nearly 0.52% in the long-run. The result obtained from the ECM model shows that the coefficient is equal to -1.23 and highly significant; this implies that the deviation for the short-run in economic growth is corrected by 123% percent over each year in a long time. These findings confirm the hypothesis that high inequality hurts the economic growth in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, the Algerian government must adopt policies that favor economic growth and achieve greater equity in income distribution to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.

How trade openness influenced economic growth in India: An empirical investigation

Objectives: To analyze the dynamic impacts of trade openness on economic growth in India. Methodology: This study extensively examines the dynamic impact of trade openness on economic growth in India using ARDL Bounds Test approach. A complex trade openness index is constructed using PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and a time dummy variable is used in an effort to capture the Economic Reform Policy dynamics of 1991 in India. Per capita GDP growth rate has been used as a standard measure of economic growth. Annual time series data has been used for estimation over the period of 1960- 2018 Findings: It is found that the trade openness has negative impact on economic growth in India in both the short and long run. The result conforms to several findings on the same topic. Applications: This study incorporates measures to control for the shocks by the new economic policy of 1991. It is also discussed why trade openness might have had a negative impact on the economy of India in spite of it being a desirable phenomenon. Keywords: ARDL; India; economic growth; development; trade openness; new economic policy of 1991

Determinants of international remittance inflow in Asia-Pacific middle-income countries

The international remittances by immigrants to their home countries is one of the key sources of funding development in middle-income countries, especially in migrant-sending countries. This study assesses the determinants of international remittances using panel data from 22 Asia-Pacific middle-income countries, most of which are well-known migrant-sending countries, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. The results show that the gap in the per capita GDP growth rate between origin and destination countries, gross enrollment ratio of secondary education, and trade openness are positively associated with remittance inflow. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are negatively correlated with remittance inflows. The results of this study can be interpreted as a paradigm shift for acquiring foreign capital in middle-income countries, from remittances in earlier stages of development to more FDI inflows when the country has the pre-requisites for absorbing foreign capital. The remittance inflows should be highly important, especially in the early stage of economic development, as additional incomes, or investment sources for those who live in middle-income countries.