Application of the ARIMAX Model in Forecasting the Population Growth Rate of Congo B

Abstract

Population forecasting models play an important role in analyzing current population processes and predicting their future development. The Republic of the Congo saw population growth from 1.02 million to 5.66 million people between 1960 and 2021. This is an increase of 455.6% over 61 years. Urbanization is a trend that is accelerating and growing at a 3.2% yearly rate with the country's current economic situation, which is not ideal. The objective of this study is to show and forecast the population growth rate in Congo B using the ARIMAX system. Based on the data of per capita GDP and population growth rate in Congo B from 1982 to 2019, this paper uses per capita GDP as the input variable and population growth rate as the response variable and uses the ARIMAX model for research. The predictions for Congo B's population growth rate in 2020-2024 were correct. The results were 11.77‰, 11.60‰, 11.55‰, 11.34‰, 11.03‰, respectively. This indicates a country with a lower population growth rate. The results of this work allow the government and Congolese leaders to use them as a reference when creating a baseline and responsible growth strategy because they show that the rate of population expansion in Congo B will slow over the next five years and that migration will remain moderate.