Capacity Of Solar Power Plants Research Articles

РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНОЙ СИСТЕМЫ НЕПРЯМОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ВЫРАБАТЫВАЕМОЙ ЭЛЕКТРОЭНЕРГИИ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИИ КАК ПРОГРАММЫ ДЛЯ ЭВМ

The forecasting of electric power generated by a solar power plant enables effective and safe control over electric networks which integrate a cluster of solar power plants. Penalty rates for the purchase of solar power at the day-ahead market, which deviates by more than 5 % of the maximum capacity of solar power plants from the provided hourly model of the day-ahead market of solar power generation, update the accuracy of the day-ahead market model through effective intelligent systems for forecasting solar power generation. It has been found that there is no accessible software for successful forecasting of solar power generation; the advisability and relevance of designing such software with an intelligent system have been shown based on the fi ndings of the examined existing software. The study developed, tested and implemented an intelligent system of indirect forecasting of solar power generation in the form of computer software designed based on a modifi ed fuzzy neural network with an attention mechanism. A class diagram and a block-modular architecture for computer software that implements an intelligent system of indirect forecasting of solar power generation were developed in UML notes using the Microsoft Visio CASE tool. A block-modular architecture provides the fl exibility of computer software. The computer software implementing an intelligent system of indirect forecasting for solar power generation was tested for effectiveness, robust results, and the advisability of its application for building a day-ahead market model. The SCADA database of a solar power plant can be easily integrated with an intelligent system of indirect forecasting of solar power generation.

Comparison of Control Method System by Using Perturbation and Observation Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic for the Maximum Power Point Control in Photovoltaic Systems

Currently, photovoltaic energy conversion has developed tremendously in the global energy industry. The enormous capacity of solar power plants generates electricity all over the world. Hundreds of gigawatts of electrical energy are supplied to the networks of various countries around the globe. In addition, up to hundreds of gigawatts of installed capacity of solar power plants are commissioned every year in all countries of the world. And this has been the trend for the past few decades. The main problem of solar photovoltaic conversion is the instability of the solar radiation flux associated with the climatic conditions in the regions where photovoltaic plants are operated. This problem can be solved by using highly efficient methods to control the generation of solar power plants, in particular, such as the use of information control systems for a particular PV system to increase the final generation of electrical energy supplied to the consumer. The photovoltaic (PV) conversion of solar radiation flux is an important renewable energy source. Due to the varying intensity of the sun, the electricity generated by PV directly from the radiation flux is not constant. The photovoltaic system currently uses maximum power point (PMP) tracking in perturbation and observation (P&O) mode to increase the final output power of the photovoltaic panels. A step-down DC-DC converter allows PMP to change the PV operating voltage and determine the maximum power output of the PV panel. This study proposes a fuzzy logic implementation. The magnitude of the perturbed voltage is determined by the change in power dq and the change in power relative to the change in voltage dq/dv is fuzzy. The performance of fuzzy logic is investigated in this work in order to optimize MPM. Fuzzy logic can simplify maximum power tracking and reduce voltage instability. According to the simulation results, the MPM method based on fuzzy computation performs better than the traditional P&O method. By using the proposed methods, we can significantly improve electric power generation and increase the efficiency of photovoltaic conversion.

Review on Greenhouse Gases Emission in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Countries

The Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a critical contributor to global development from an environmental perspective. This study has reviewed carbon emissions from energy generation, influence factors from the population, economic growth and renewable energy, emission and energy intensity projection, spatial distribution characteristics, and decarbonization strategy. This work utilizes a comparison methodology between ASEAN countries in the emission intensity and energy intensity in the future projection of electricity conditions in 2030 or 2040, as well as opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as determined by the national policies of each government. The results show that Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia produce 79.7% of the electricity in the ASEAN region. As a developing country, Indonesia has the largest population and gross domestic product (GDP) but has the highest predicted emission intensity, of 0.97 CO2e/MWh, in 2030. Vietnam is predicted to have an emission intensity of about 3.56t-CO2e/cap and 0.747t-CO2e/GDP in 2030. Vietnam is expected to increase in energy intensity to 1241 MWh/GDP, while Brunei Darussalam has a high energy intensity of 11.35 MWh/cap. However, the capacity of solar power plants (more than 11 GW) and wind-power plants (2384 MW) have generally increased in ASEAN from 2015 to 2019, indicating the positive development of renewable energy source (RES) use. The national policies strongly influence the estimated GHG emission in ASEAN by aggressively replacing fossil fuels with RESs. Support, via government policies, can reduce the cost of electricity generation from RESs is needed to increase and enhance the installment of clean power generation systems. In future work, the research needs to consider the intermittent characteristics of variable RES in power system operation.

The influence of some climatic factors on the development of solar energy in the Chernivtsi region

The thesis explores the influence of climatic factors on the development of solar energy in Chernivtsi region. Emphasis is placed on studying the impact of geographical location and the duration of the day on the formation of solar radiation and, as a result, on the capacity of solar power plants. It has been established that the capacity of solar power plants and the volume of electricity production depend largely on the duration of the day and the amount of solar radiation received by solar panels from the surrounding environment. The amount of direct and scattered radiation that reaches solar panels for electricity production is significantly affected by cloud cover (cloudiness). Therefore, considerable attention is given to the study of the influence of sky cloudiness on the efficiency of solar panels. Analysis of the data obtained from the meteorological station at Chernivtsi airport revealed that the highest degree of cloudiness in Chernivtsi region is observed during the winter months. Consequently, as a result of this research, it has been found that the mentioned factors significantly affect the capacity of solar panels and the volumes of electricity production. The most favorable period for solar energy production is summer, while the winter creates the least favorable conditions for its functioning. The study emphasizes the seasonal dependence of solar energy capacities in Chernivtsi region. Keywords: solar energy, climatic factors, cloudiness, solar radiation.

НАКОПИЧУВАЧІ ЕЛЕКТРИЧНОЇ ЕНЕРГІЇ

The article provides an analytical review of reverse-acting electric energy storage devices that can be used to solve systemic problems of the United Energy System of Ukraine. The need for the use of electric energy storage is due to the existing shortage of maneuverable capacities of the United Energy System and the construction of solar and wind power plants, which, due to the stochastic mode of operation, are a significant destabilizing factor. Due to the lack of market pricing mechanisms, the possibility of adjusting the rates of the "green" tariff, and the decrease in the cost of solar and wind power plant technologies, a rapid increase in their number and capacity has been observed in recent years. At the beginning of 2021, the installed capacity of solar power plants was 6.87 GW, and wind power plants – was 1.31 GW, and by 2030, their growth is planned to be 10.5 GW and 5.0 GW, respectively. Without adequate regulatory capacity, this can lead to catastrophic consequences, as happened in South Australia. The conducted review and analysis showed that the dominant technology of electric energy storage in the world is hydro-storage power plants, the implementation costs of which are about 260 USD/kWh. Compressed air energy storage is the cheapest technology but needs to be located near the energy systems of natural caves. Accumulator systems of energy storage are developing at a fast pace, the costs of their implementation are 311-520 USD/kWh with a tendency to decrease by 2030 by about 25%. They are the most promising for work in energy systems. These storage devices can be used to regulate frequency and power, reduce electricity flows, reduce voltage fluctuations in electrical networks, consolidate daily schedules of electrical loads, prevent overloads of electrical networks and transformers, increase the reliability of electricity supply, increase the stability of the operation of solar and wind power plants, as well as for commercial purposes in various segments of the electricity market of Ukraine. Keywords: energy system, electricity storage, power, capacity.

Photovoltaic Penetration with MILP Method and Technical Minimum Loading Consideration

Technological development and the reduction of installation costs have caused a rapid growth of solar power plants in Indonesia. The National Electricity Company (Perusahaan Listrik Negara, PLN) strives to achieve the energy mix of renewable energy to 23% by 2025. Solar power plants are unique in that they only supply their power during the daytime. It makes solar power plants connected to the power system change the load profile of the Java-Bali system. In this study, the penetration of solar power plants changed the scheduling of the Java-Bali system because the penetration was installed to the technical minimum loading of existing power plants. When penetration is too big, thermal generator scheduling failure is possible. Unit commitment and economic dispatch with mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) method using CPLEX and Python were carried out to calculate the fuel and generation costs per kWh before and after the penetration. MILP was used to solve the cost fuel equation, namely an integer and nonlinear mix equations, that are challenging to be solved using standar nonlinear programming methods. Due to the use of the MILP-UC, all objective function equations and restraint functions must be linear functions. The tests were conducted for three years, from 2023 to 2025. Simulation results on the Java-Bali system show that the capacity of solar power plants penetrating the Java-Bali system against the peak load will be 52%, 52%, and 50% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Meanwhile, penetration of solar power plants to technical minimum loading of existing power plants resulted in the fuel cost falling by 23% in 2023 and 22% in 2024 and 2025. Lastly, the cost of generation per kWh will be decreased by 8% in 2023 and will be as low as 7% in 2024 and 2025.

KARAKTERISTIK DAYA PANEL SURYA POLYCRYSTALLINE 100 WP TERHADAP PERUBAHAN TEMPERATUR

Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry's 2018 Electricity Statistics data shows that the installed capacity of Solar Power Plants (PLTS) only reaches 0.09 percent of the national generating capacity. This means that if the national generating capacity in 2018 reaches 64.92 gigawatts (GW), then PLTS only has a share of around 58.43 megawatts (MW). This value is very small considering the potential for solar energy in Indonesia can reach 207 GW. The majority of power plants in Indonesia are still dominated by PLTU which reaches 42.34 percent or around 27.49 GW. In testing the characteristics of solar panels, the method used is to install prototype materials and equipment for 100 WP Polycristalline solar panels and collect data through direct measurements. The method of observation is to collect data related to temperature variations that are happening at certain times and conditions that can affect the size of the power. The equipment used for this measurement includes: a thermometer used to measure temperature, a Charge Controller Module (SCC) as a control for charging the battery as well as measuring the amount of DC electricity that is always displayed, a camera for documenting the measurement results, a battery as a store of electrical power and a dc wattmeter as a measurement tool. the amount of electricity from the solar penel as well as connecting cables and other auxiliary equipment. The results of this study include: the pattern of power characteristics on a Pollycrystalline 100 WP solar panel at a temperature of 25˚C to a temperature of 39˚C is directly proportional to temperature, with a minimum value of 2.7 Watt at a temperature of 25˚C until it reaches a maximum power of 28, 5 Watt when the temperature reaches 39 C, the SUNSIA brand of Pollycrystalline 100 WP solar panel can produce effective electrical energy when the temperature is above 34 C, from the power generated by the solar panel to charge a 12 V 32A battery with an initial voltage of 5.1 Volts until it reaches a voltage of 13.8 Volts takes 8 hours.

FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY IMPLEMENTATION IN UKRAINE AND INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE

An analysis of the development of the world's energy sector was carried out, focusing on the rapid development of renewable energy. It is shown that the main source of financing for renewable energy in the world is borrowed funds and in much less extent private capital, which is invested in generation facilities with a capacity of up to 1 MW. In the process of quantitative analysis and comparison, the fact of significant development of renewable energy in Ukraine is reflected, which in terms of capacity deployment rates is not inferior to the world average. As in the whole world, in Ukraine the main role in the development of renewable energy is played by solar and wind energy. Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that actively encourages the development of renewable energy through the mechanism of the feed-in tariff, with its gradual reduction as renewable energy develops. Special attention is drawn to the development of solar energy among households in Ukraine, which only in the last few years has exceeded the indicators of the installed nominal capacity of similar indicators of bioenergy and small hydropower of legal entities. Goal. Conduct a comparative analysis of the attracting investment funds in the development of renewable energy in Ukraine and the world. Determine the main factors that have the direct impact on the increase of installed capacities of renewable energy in Ukraine. Methodology of problem analysis. The methodology which is used in this scientific work is the comparison of the levelized cost of energy production of solar and wind energy (levelised cost of energy - LCOE) and the real value of the feed-in tariff discounted by the inflation rate during the analyzed period of development of renewable energy in Ukraine. A scientific innovation. A study of the impact of the feed-in tariff for solar power plants installed by households in Ukraine and the world average indicator of the levelised cost of energy production by solar power plants on the indicator of the total installed capacity of solar power plants among Ukrainian households was conducted. Research results. The main factor that determines the rapid development of the solar energy among Ukrainian households was determined by the decrease in the present value of energy production, i.e. a decrease in the cost of generating plants. At the same time, the "feed-in tariff" established by the state is only an alternative to investing in domestic state loan bonds and bank deposits. The "feed-in tariff" has no direct effect on the increase of installed capacities of renewable energy in Ukraine. Practical significance. According to the results of the research, it can be said that the optimal way to stimulate the development of renewable energy, in particular solar energy, on the part of the state can be the abolition of the duty on the import of production capacities of renewable energy and the reduction of the tax burden on enterprises engaged in the production and repair of specialized equipment of renewable energy facilities. These actions will make it possible to bring the level of prices for the installation of domestic solar power plants and other renewable energy capacities to the world average, which will accelerate the development of alternative energy in Ukraine. In addition, it is possible to adopt the global experience of lending to individuals and legal entities who have expressed a desire to install alternative energy production facilities

ENSURING PERMISSIBLE VOLTAGE LEVELS IN LOW-VOLTAGE NETWORKS IN THE DESIGN OF SOLAR POWER PLANTS FOR PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS

One way to stimulate the development of renewable energy is preferential electricity tariffs for businesses, electricity consumers, including energy cooperatives and private households, whose generators produce electricity from alternative energy sources. Such a state policy exists both in Ukraine (the "green tariff") and in other countries (Feed-in tariffs). The simplified connection mechanism of generating power of private households and the fast payback period of solar power plants have led to a rapid increase in the number of such facilities. The peculiarity of network photovoltaic installations of private households is that the investment is proportional, and sometimes even less than the cost of additional reconstruction, for example, to increase the capacity of the electrical network, so, as a rule, their connection to low voltage networks is carried out without any additional changes of intersections of power lines. At the same time, according to the Law of Ukraine on the Electricity Market, the connection of generating installations to consumers, including private households, should not lead to deterioration of regulatory parameters of electricity quality. Another feature of these objects is the almost complete lack of information about the parameters of the electrical network. In the absence of reliable information, it becomes necessary to develop approximate methods for estimating the allowable capacity of solar power plants of private households depending on the place of connection, the parameters of the modern low-quality distribution network and modes of its operation. The article proposes the use of the distribution network model in the form of a line with evenly distributed load from the solar power plants in the form of a concentrated load at the corresponding point of the line. The voltage distribution along the line is simulated when the power of the solar power plant and the place of its connection change. Analytical relations are obtained for the calculation of the solar power plants power limit values to ensure the admissibility of the mode parameters according to the voltage level when varying the solar power plant connection point. A method is proposed to maintain the allowable minimum voltage levels at the terminals of consumers in short-term congested sections of the network.

PROCESSING AND RECYCLING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR PANELS

The steady tendency of increasing the installed capacity of solar power plants, which is accompanied by the gradual accumulation of solar panel waste, is analyzed. The main factors of negative impact on the environment and directly on human health from the production of solar photovoltaic panels and waste of these panels are identified. The scenarios of solar photovoltaic panels waste accumulation are analyzed, the specifics of waste generation and accumulation in the present and in the future are characterized. Taking into account the average service life of solar photovoltaic panels in 25 years, it is determined that the amount of waste will increase significantly in the period of 2030…2035, reaching a peak between 2040 and 2050. The type and composition of photovoltaic panels, which determine the essence of waste processing technology, are characterized. It is defined that today most research on waste recycling of solar photovoltaic panels focuses on the first generation of modules, which is associated with the scale of operation of these panels and sales markets. It was found that at present, the production of solar photovoltaic panels, which consumes primary natural materials, is characterized by nature intensity, and direct waste processing cannot meet the needs of the photovoltaic modules production. The objective necessity of carrying out large-scale extraction of minerals and use of precious metals before the period of highly efficient processing of waste solar photovoltaic panels, which would meet the demands of production, is substantiated. Modern tendencies in technological researches and developments of secondary processing of photovoltaic modules are considered. It is determined that as the volume of solar photovoltaic panels production and waste generation increases, the requirements for ensuring the environmental efficiency of waste processing and disposal technologies should be more stringent. This involves increasing the recycling degree of the waste’s main components, starting from 80…90 % and to the highest possible level. It is determined that at the same time with this tendency, it is expedient to develop technologies for recycling of non-recyclable parts of waste at present.

Тенденції розвитку ринку генерації сонячної енергії України

The research is aimed at analyzing and finding the reasons for the specific development of the solar energy market of Ukraine, defining the interaction on the part of the State and its role, furthermore the role of monopolists-generators and small generating equipment in private households. As result of the research, the following issues are considered: specifics of the formation of a share of the segment of solar power plants among renewable energy sources; the largest companies – solar energy generators in Ukraine; dynamics of changes in the «green» tariff and installed capacity of solar power plants over the past decade; development of the direction of small solar power plants installed by households and the largest generating regions of Ukraine by both the number and the installed capacity of the households’ SPP. Analyzing modern analytical reports on renewable energy generation, it is appropriate to note that a system of indicators, which is being created currently to reflect the real state of development of renewable energy, indicates a certain prospect of scientific research in this direction. Modern problems of development of the generating renewable energy market are defined, among which the following are defined: changes in legislation on the «green» tariff, which leads to changes in the investment climate and attractiveness of generation projects, the conflicting mechanisms of tariff auctions; potential threat of shortage of both storage and transport capacities (due to disproportionate development of generation volumes and its infrastructure support) etc. Based on the analysis of existing development trends, conclusions have been drawn about the future state and development of the solar energy generation market. The need to form a balanced national strategy for the development of renewable energy, taking into account the current conditions for reducing the «green» tariff and the cost of generating equipment, as well as taking into account the national interests of the State, the interests of monopolists and households, has been established.

О балансах производства электроэнергии в мире и России

The electricity generation balance in the United States, Europe, Russia, and worldwide as of 2018 is considered. The main trends in the these power plants. The following main results are obtained. The capacities commissioned in 2018 amounted to 100 GW (25.1% with respect to 2017) at photovoltaic power plants (PVPP), 51 GW (9.5%) at windmill farms (WMF), 9 GW (9.8%) at biomass fired power plants (BioPP), and 0.5 GW (1.6%) at geothermal power plants (GeoPP). The total installed capacity of RES-based power plants in 2018 reached 1246 GW, including 591 GW at WMFs, 505 GW at PVPPs, 130 GW at BioPPs, and 13.3 GW at GeoPPs. The weighted average values of capacity utilization factors at power plants differ significantly by the RES types and in different countries, and as of late 2016, their weighted average values were as follows on the whole over the world: 0.79 for GeoPPs, 0.75 for BioPPs, 0.3 for WMFs, and 0.165 at PVPPs (in the majority of developed countries, this factor is equal to 0.2). The lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at WMFs has been achieved in the USA, China and Asia, and ranges from $0.055 to $0.06 for kWh; i.e., it has become lower than it is at coal fired power plants in these countries. The lowest LCOE at PVPPs has been achieved in South America ($0.08/kWh), India ($0.08/kWh), and China ($0.1/kWh); i.e., it is approximately equal to the net cost of electricity generation in these countries. The expected share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation in 2020, 2025, and 2030 is equal to 14.25%, 20.43%, and 27.11%, respectively, and taking into account hydroelectric power plants, it is equal to 30.18%, 36.18%, and 42.7%, respectively. In Russia, significant progress in the use of RES has been made for the period 2014 — 2019. According to the Market Council data as of 17.10.2019, 72 solar power plants with a total installed capacity of 982.173 MW are in operation at facilities operating on the basis of photovoltaic conversion. The total capacity of solar power plants in the Orenburg region amounted to 260 MW, and that in the Astrakhan region, 220 MW. The register also contains eight windmill farms with the total installed capacity equal 97.265 MW, including the Ulyanovsk WMF-1 (35 MW) and the Ulyanovsk WMF-2 (50.4 MW—two stages of 25.2 MW each). The «Hevel» group of companies has built a plant for manufacturing photovoltaic modules with an output of 300 MW a year. A domestic complex for producing wind power equipment is under development.

Improvement of Methods for Predicting the Generation Capacity of Solar Power Plants: the Case of the Power Systems in the Republic of Crimea and City of Sevastopol

The construction and operation of large solar power plants (SPPs) and the dependence of their production on light and other meteorological factors leads to a strong dependence of the operation modes of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol power system on meteorological factors. Today, given that the share of solar power plants is about 30% of the total installed capacity, it is necessary to solve the problems that have a great impact on the power system operating modes. With large output capacity of the solar power plant, the operator has to give commands to turn off the generating equipment of thermal power plants. In power systems with a large share of solar generation, it is necessary to solve this problem by improving the generated power predicting methods, as it will reduce the dependence of operating modes on weather factors and increase the reliability of the power system. The paper discusses the use of hybrid predicting methods that imply taking into account the possibility of the weather scenarios simulation, advanced cloud-based image processing technology, and close-to-real-time cloud motion surveillance cameras. There was an experimental software created that selects coefficients of set configuration time series. In combination with the conservative methods, it makes predicting the SPP Perovo output more accurate. Taken together, the chosen methods of predicting solar power generation capacity in the power system of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol ensure not only stability of the power system as a whole, but also the maximum efficiency of power plants, allow to accelerate the integration of solar power plants into the power system, and have positive effects on the environment.

Method for Calculating the Capacity of Solar Power Plants and its Implementation in LabVIEW Environment

The paper presents the method for calculating the capacity of an autonomous solar power plant and its components. This method allows considering a load variation during the day as well as specifying the required capacity of the battery and excluding an unjustified overestimation of the power plant component capacities along with the increase in efficiency of the autonomous solar power plant. Formula for determining the required battery capacity of an autonomous solar power plant could be easily generalized for any number of changes in the load schedule steps. Virtual instruments (calculators) for calculating the capacity of an autonomous solar power plant and its components have been developed on the basis of this method in LabVIEW environment. These calculators may have a rather high visibility, ease of use and low memory requirements along with less computing time spent on calculations. The first calculator may allow recalculating capacities of loads on the power plant main supply bus as well as determining the energy consumption of loads per day. The second calculator may be used for determining the required capacity and number of batteries as well as the capacity of the charger, inverters, main supply bus and solar modules along with the solar power plant efficiency.

Technical and Economic Indicators of Solar Power Plants

Determination of the technical and economic indicators of solar power plants is examined in the paper. The dynamics of growth of installed capacity of solar power plants is shown. Formulas for calculating the installed capacity cost of solar power plants and the cost of electricity generated by solar power plants are presented. The influence of the service life on the technical and economic parameters of solar power plants is examined.

AN ANALYSIS OF SOLAR POWER PLANTS OPERATION IN THE OFF-GRID AREA OF THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA)

The paper describes the specific features of power supply to the off-grid consumers in the northern territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Territorial zoning is made by the indices of total solar radiation received on horizontal surface and annual sunshine duration. Retrospective data on the solar power plants construction are presented for the offgrid area of the Republic which despite its northern location is a pioneer in this field of energy. The design differences of some power plants are described. This allows the experts of the local company to substantiate the priority solutions for the climatic conditions of the Republic based on the experimental data. A list of the populated settlements is presented with indication of the total capacity of solar power plants by area of the Republic. The paper demonstrates the dynamics of the total indices of electricity generation, the saving of diesel fuel and cost for its purchase in 2011–2016. Based on the analysis of solar power plant operation in the settlement of Dzhargalakh located beyond the Polar circle, we make a conclusion on the advantages of monocrystalline modules for the arctic conditions compared to the thin-film and polycrystalline ones. Actual data on electricity generation by month of the year are indicative of its typical pronounced summer maximum and virtual absence in winter. The paper shows the dynamics of electricity generation for a five-year period for each of the seven solar power plants constructed before 2015, and cost saving by fuel substitution at diesel power plants. Considerable changes in electricity generation are connected only with additional equipment to be placed into service. Increase in the cost saving is caused by growth of diesel fuel price. Actual data on the cost of the construction projects and cost saving are used to determine payback periods for seven solar power plants located in different areas of the Republic. Research has revealed that the latitudinal location does not affect payback periods of the projects while the diesel fuel price is the most decisive factor. In this context, even in the arctic areas of the Republic with winter polar night period, the payback period of the projects for construction of solar power plants is comparable with the power plants located in much more southerly areas and does not exceed 10 years.

Solar power generation short-term forecasting model’s implementation experience

Recently there is significant increase in the installed capacity of solar power plants in Russia. Thereby there are issues of solar power plants owners information support for participation in wholesale electricity market. The paper describes the experience of short term forecasting system practical implementation. The system is proposed for forecasting the solar power plant generation “a day ahead” as a part of the software for automatic meter reading systems “Energosfera”. The short-term forecasting program modules structure, key parameters and characteristics used during the forecasting process description is presented.

Solar Power Plant Generation Short-Term Forecasting Model

Recently, renewable generation plays an increasingly important role in the energy balance. Solar energy is developing at a rapid pace, while the solar power plants output depends on weather conditions. Solar power plant output short-term forecasting is an urgent issue. The future electricity generation qualitative forecasts allow electricity producers and network operators to actively manage the variable capacity of solar power plants, and thereby to optimally integrate the solar resources into the country's overall power system. The article presents one of the possible approaches to the solution of the short-term forecasting problem of a solar power plant output.