Abstract
Recently, renewable generation plays an increasingly important role in the energy balance. Solar energy is developing at a rapid pace, while the solar power plants output depends on weather conditions. Solar power plant output short-term forecasting is an urgent issue. The future electricity generation qualitative forecasts allow electricity producers and network operators to actively manage the variable capacity of solar power plants, and thereby to optimally integrate the solar resources into the country's overall power system. The article presents one of the possible approaches to the solution of the short-term forecasting problem of a solar power plant output.
Highlights
The solar power plants in the power system leads to the emergence of an additional uncertainty source, in addition to the load behavior
According to the Russian Federation Government Resolution No449 “About using the renewable energy sources stimulation mechanism in wholesale and retail energy markets” taken on 28 may 2013 there is competitive selection of the investment projects for the generating facilities based on the renewable energy sources using construction
After obtaining the required value of the solar radiation flux density according to the methodology presented above, a forecast is made for the solar power plant electricity generation
Summary
The solar power plants in the power system leads to the emergence of an additional uncertainty source, in addition to the load behavior. According to the Russian Federation Government Resolution No449 “About using the renewable energy sources stimulation mechanism in wholesale and retail energy markets” taken on 28 may 2013 there is competitive selection of the investment projects for the generating facilities based on the renewable energy sources using construction. These competitive selections are held 4 years ahead for solar power plants. The function of solar power plant generation short-term forecast is required for trading on the day-ahead market This function is a complex multicriteria task that is based on meteorological and climatic data, generating facility state data and the adjustment electrical network topological and mode data. Yeltsin carried out the development and implementation of a short-term forecasting system for the electricity generation in photovoltaic plants in the framework of research and development work
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