Abstract
Recently there is significant increase in the installed capacity of solar power plants in Russia. Thereby there are issues of solar power plants owners information support for participation in wholesale electricity market. The paper describes the experience of short term forecasting system practical implementation. The system is proposed for forecasting the solar power plant generation “a day ahead” as a part of the software for automatic meter reading systems “Energosfera”. The short-term forecasting program modules structure, key parameters and characteristics used during the forecasting process description is presented.
Highlights
Energy consumption on the planet is constantly growing, and at the same time, humanity faces the task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global climate change
The International Energy Agency came to this conclusion in its report
Statistical models describe the relationship between the solar radiation flux density, obtained from numerical weather prediction and the generation of solar energy directly by statistical analysis of time series by retrospective data without taking into account physical processes
Summary
Energy consumption on the planet is constantly growing, and at the same time, humanity faces the task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global climate change. The longer the forecast period is the more accurately one can predict the result of solar power plant output. This rule is quite correct for the area, i.e. the point forecast is always less accurate. The electricity amount forecast produced by the solar station is the prediction of the solar radiation amount that will received by solar panels. It depends on many factors, the main ones are climatic and meteorological conditions, i.e. the position of the sun in the sky, the duration of daylight, cloudiness, precipitation, wind force, etc. Short-term solar power plants output forecasting serves to decrease of uncertainty in planning modes; creation of a tool for the participation of station owners on the day-ahead market and the balancing market; creation of a tool for the financial planning of station owners
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