Canopy Loss Research Articles

Remote sensing restores predictability of ectotherm body temperature in the world’s forests

AbstractAimRising global temperatures are predicted to increase ectotherms’ body temperatures, benefitting some species but threatening others. Biophysical models predict a key role for shade in buffering these effects, but the difficulty of measuring shade across broad spatial extents limits predictions of ectotherms’ thermal futures at the global scale. Here, we extend biophysical models of ectotherm body temperature to include effects of forest canopy shade, via leaf area index, and test whether considering remotely‐sensed canopy density improves predictions of body temperature variation in heavily shaded habitats.LocationWorldwide.Time period1990–2010.Major taxa studiedLizards.MethodsWe test predictions from biophysical ecological theory for how body temperature should vary with microclimate for 269 lizard populations across open, semi‐open and closed habitats worldwide. We extend existing biophysical models to incorporate canopy shade effects via leaf area index, test whether body temperature varies with canopy density as predicted by theory, and evaluate the extent to which incorporating canopy density improves model performance in heavily shaded areas.ResultsWe find that body temperatures in open habitats, like deserts, vary with air temperature and incident solar radiation as predicted by biophysical equations, but these relationships break down in forests, where body temperatures become unpredictable. Incorporating leaf area index into our models revealed lower body temperatures in more heavily shaded environments, restoring the predictability of body temperature in forests.ConclusionsAlthough biophysical ecological theory can predict ectotherm body temperature in open habitats, like deserts, these relationships decay in closed forests. Models incorporating remotely‐sensed data on canopy density improved predictability of body temperatures in these habitats, providing an avenue to incorporate canopy shade effects into predictions of animals’ vulnerability to climate change. These results highlight the thermal threat of changes in canopy structure and loss of forest cover for the world's ectotherms.

Views from two mountains: exploring climate change impacts on traditional farming communities of Eastern Africa highlands through participatory scenarios

African mountains are characterized by high levels of biodiversity and provide ecosystem services to millions of people. Due to steep environmental gradients, growing human populations and geographical isolation, these coupled socio-ecological systems are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The capacity of local stakeholders to anticipate future changes and to assess their potential impacts is paramount for enhancing adaptation and resilience. Here we apply a participatory scenario development framework in two parts of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot: Taita Hills in Kenya and Jimma rural area in Ethiopia. In each area, we facilitated local stakeholders in envisioning adaptation scenarios under projected climate changes by mid-21st century, and assessed the potential impacts of these pathways on land use and land cover. In the Taita Hills, under a business-as-usual scenario, human population and activities concentrate at high elevation, triggering cascade effects on remnant forest cover, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Alternative adaptation scenarios envisage reforestation associated with either improved agricultural practices or ecosystem restoration. In the Jimma area, rising temperatures are expected to disrupt traditional coffee production under a business-as-usual scenario, resulting in the loss of coffee-forest canopies and reduction of forest-dependent biodiversity. Alternative adaptation scenarios envisage either expansion of commercial coffee plantations or expansion of agroforestry, including traditional coffee farming. In the both Taita and Jimma, adaptation pathways present trade-offs between provisioning, supporting and regulating services, and between livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. Our findings encourage the use of multidisciplinary, bottom-up approaches for developing locally tailored, climate-smart and sustainable adaptation pathways.

Microclimatic buffering in forests of the future: the role of local water balance

Forest canopies buffer climate extremes and promote microclimates that may function as refugia for understory species under changing climate. However, the biophysical conditions that promote and maintain microclimatic buffering and its stability through time are largely unresolved. We posited that forest microclimatic buffering is sensitive to local water balance and canopy cover, and we measured this effect during the growing season across a climate gradient in forests of the northwestern United States (US). We found that forest canopies buffer extremes of maximum temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with biologically meaningful effect sizes. For example, during the growing season, maximum temperature and VPD under at least 50% forest canopy were 5.3°C and 1.1 kPa lower on average, respectively, compared to areas without canopy cover. Canopy buffering of temperature and vapor pressure deficit was greater at higher levels of canopy cover, and varied with water balance, implying that buffering effects are subject to changes in local hydrology. We project changes in the water balance for the mid‐21st century and predict how such changes may impact the ability of western US forests to buffer climate extremes. Our results suggest that some forests will lose their capacity to buffer climate extremes as sites become increasingly water limited. Changes in water balance combined with accelerating canopy losses due to increases in the frequency and severity of disturbance will create potentially non‐linear changes in the microclimate conditions of western US forests.

Plant community dynamics following hazardous fuel treatments and mega-wildfire in a warm-dry mixed-conifer forest of the USA

The greater than 200,000 ha Wallow Fire of May-July 2011 burned through mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests in Arizona and New Mexico in the southwestern U.S. This “mega-fire” set the stage for an opportunistic study to examine understory plant community responses to pre-fire fuel reduction treatments in areas dominated by dry mixed-conifer forests. In 2016, five years after the fire, we remeasured nine pairs of treated and untreated sites that were installed in 2012 and compared understory characteristics including species cover, richness and community composition. Native plant cover was significantly higher (20% total cover) in areas that were treated for fuel reduction before the fire compared with untreated areas (17% cover), despite the variability in fire severity and tree mortality. Non-native plant cover was not significantly different between treated and untreated units. Herbaceous understory cover was negatively correlated (p < 0.05) with total tree basal area and tree canopy cover in treated as well as untreated units, and positively correlated with tree mortality and basal area mortality in the untreated units. In the treated units, species richness and diversity were negatively (r = −0.62 to −0.63) correlated with insolation and elevation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordinations along with univariate results suggested that community composition was driven by increased insolation following loss of tree canopy. Cover of species that benefit from high light and warmer temperatures, such as some shrubs and perennial graminoids, increased from 2012 to 2016. Overall, fuel reduction treatments led to persistent increases in cover of native species, lending weight to the usefulness of hazardous fuel reduction treatments in promoting native plant cover.

Ecological feedback mechanisms and variable disturbance regimes: the uncertain future of Mediterranean macroalgal forests

Loss of algal canopies can result in a shift towards a turf-dominated state, where variability in species life-history traits can determine new mechanisms of feedback, and influence the degraded system under variable regimes of disturbance. By focusing on rockpools dominated by Cystoseira brachycarpa, we tested the hypothesis that the alga Dictyopteris polypodioides could take advantage of extreme regimes of disturbance related to storms, and outcompete other turfs through a distinctive combination of life traits. Replacement of the canopy was initially driven by a mix of taxon-specific life-traits and resulting assemblages were susceptible to intense events of disturbance. Subsequently, D. polypodioides dominated removal quadrats, favored by density-dependent abilities to intercept more light and reach larger size than the rest of turf. These new positive feedbacks may contribute to maintain the modified state of the system and influence its ability to withstand extreme abiotic conditions.

Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought.

As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

Experimental evidence of spatial signatures of approaching regime shifts in macroalgal canopies.

Developing early warning signals to predict regime shifts in ecosystems is a central issue in current ecological research. While there are many studies addressing temporal early warning indicators, research into spatial indicators is far behind, with field experiments even more rare. Here, we tested the performance of spatial early warning signals in an intertidal macroalgal system, where removal of algal canopies pushed the system toward a tipping point (corresponding to approximately 75% of canopy loss), marking the transition between a canopy- to a turf-dominated state. We performed a two-year experiment where spatial early warning indicators were assessed in transects where the canopy was differentially removed (from 0 to 100%). Unlike Moran correlation coefficient at lag-1, spatial variance, skewness, and spatial spectra at low frequency increased along the gradient of canopy degradation and dropped, or did not show any further increase beyond the transition point from a canopy- to a turf-dominated state (100% canopy removal). Our study provides direct evidence of the suitability of spatial early warning signals to anticipate regime shifts in natural ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of field experiments as a powerful tool to establish causal relationships between environmental stressors and early warning indicators.

Self-replacement after small-scale partial crown dieback in austral Nothofagus dombeyi forests affected by an extreme drought

The spectrum of structural response in drought-induced mortality (degree of partial crown mortality) could play a key role in pervasive changes in plant composition, as individual openings could reset self-replacement dynamics or trigger shifts in vegetation. Here we capture the community pattern 17 years after a drought episode over a range of canopy responses in Nothofagus dombeyi forests. We applied a widespread demographic approach to address evidence of species shifts vs. self-replacement and to relate partial dieback to understory structure and composition. Assuming that the outcome of growth release of the understory components can be observed 17 years after canopy loss, this study reveals evidence of self-replacement in N. dombeyi forests heavily affected by drought. Alternatively, when the co-dominant species A. chilensis is widely present in the understory and large gaps are opened, a compositional shift may be possible, with a potential change in forest functionality. Individual partial openings do not favor more shrubby communities or a shift toward a new community. Thus, partial crown dieback contributes to self-replacement mechanisms by hampering strong growth release in understory shrubs, as evident in plots with high mortality, and by facilitating the growth of dominant tree species.

Methods to Improve Survival and Growth of Planted Alternative Species Seedlings in Black Ash Ecosystems Threatened by Emerald Ash Borer

Emerald ash borer (EAB) continues to spread across North America, infesting native ash trees and changing the forested landscape. Black ash wetland forests are severely affected by EAB. As black ash wetland forests provide integral ecosystem services, alternative approaches to maintain forest cover on the landscape are needed. We implemented simulated EAB infestations in depressional black ash wetlands in the Ottawa National Forest in Michigan to mimic the short-term and long-term effects of EAB. These wetlands were planted with 10 alternative tree species in 2013. Based on initial results in the Michigan sites, a riparian corridor in the Superior Municipal Forest in Wisconsin was planted with three alternative tree species in 2015. Results across both locations indicate that silver maple (Acer saccharinum L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), American elm (Ulmus americana L.), and northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.) are viable alternative species to plant in black ash-dominated wetlands. Additionally, selectively planting on natural or created hummocks resulted in two times greater survival than in adjacent lowland sites, and this suggests that planting should be implemented with microsite selection or creation as a primary control. Regional landowners and forest managers can use these results to help mitigate the canopy and structure losses from EAB and maintain forest cover and hydrologic function in black ash-dominated wetlands after infestation.

Ten-year performance of elms in the National Elm Trial

Ulmus americana (American elm) was an important urban tree in North America prior to the introduction of the Dutch elm disease (Ophiostoma ulmi and O. novo-ulmi) pathogen in 1930. Subsequently, urban and community forests were devastated by the loss of the large canopies. Disease tolerant elms (Ulmus spp.) of various species were later developed; however, consumer acceptance of these trees was slow. The goal of the National Elm Trial was to evaluate newer cultivars of elm across the United States. Trees were monitored for survival and growth for 7 to 10 years at 16 different locations. 'Morton' elm had >90% survival, while 13 cultivars averaged 70 to 90%, and five cultivars ranged from 25 to 69% survival. Trunk diameter growth by location ranged from 0.5 cm year-1 at Colorado to more than 2.0 cm year-1 at Iowa. By taxa, trunk diameter growth ranged from a low of 'JFS Bieberich' elm (0.7 cm year-1) to a high of 'New Horizon' elm (1.7 cm year-1). The fastest height growth was found with the American elm cultivars 'New Harmony' and 'Princeton' (0.63 and 0.61 m year-1, respectively).

Pest categorisation of Anisogramma anomala.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Plant Health (PLH) Panel performed a pest categorisation of Anisogramma anomala, a well‐defined and distinguishable fungal species of the family Valsaceae. The pathogen is regulated in Annex IIAI of Council Directive 2000/29/EC as a harmful organism whose introduction into the EU is banned on plants of Corylus L., intended for planting, other than seeds, originating in Canada and the USA. The fungus is native to eastern North America and causes eastern filbert blight on cultivated hazel, Corylus avellana, as well as on wild hazel (Corylus spp.). In the 1960s, the disease spread on infected plant material to Oregon, where it then threatened US hazelnut production in the Willamette Valley. The pest could enter the EU via plants for planting. Hosts and favourable climatic conditions are common in the EU, thus facilitating establishment. The pest would be able to spread following establishment through infected plants for planting and ascospore dispersal. A. anomala leads to canopy and yield loss and can cause death of Corylus trees. Should the pathogen be introduced into the EU, impacts can be expected not just on hazel as a crop and as an ornamental but also in coppices and woodlands, where Corylus species provide an important habitat. In Oregon, scouting for cankers, therapeutic pruning and copious fungicide applications are reported to be necessary (but costly measures) to continue hazelnut production in the presence of the disease. Breeding for resistance led to the selection of resistant cultivars. The main knowledge gaps concern (i) the role of deadwood and cut branches as potential entry pathways and means of spread and (ii) the susceptibility of C. avellana cultivars and of Corylus spp. in the wild in the EU. The criteria assessed by the Panel for consideration as a potential quarantine pest are met. For regulated non‐quarantine pests, the criterion on the pest presence in the EU is not met.

Efficacy of Two Systemic Insecticides With Stem Gall Wasp, Zapatella davisae (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae) on Black Oak.

Black oak, Quercus velutina Lamarck, is the dominant deciduous tree on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, and in recent years it has experienced widespread mortality and severe canopy loss due to infestations of a stem gall wasp, Zapatella davisae Buffington and Melika (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae). A single application of systemic insecticides emamectin benzoate and imidacloprid was found to reduce or prevent further accumulation of Z. davisae damage on infested black oak during a 1-yr trial.

Screening for Drought Tolerance in Thirty Three Taro Cultivars

Taro [Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott] is a root crop which is an important staple food in many regions of the world, producing 10.5 million tonnes on 1.4 million hectares a year. The crop is cultivated in wet (rain fed) or irrigated conditions, requiring on average 2,500 mm water per year, and in many countries it is cultivated in flooded plots. It is estimated that taro production could decrease by 40% as a result of the increase in drought and other severe events. In this work, thirty three accessions, including local cultivars, selected and hybrid lines were submitted to long duration drought stress and screened for tolerance. Twelve physiological, morphological and agronomic traits were measured at harvest, and subject to multivariate analysis. Stress indices, Water Use Efficiency and Factorial Analysis were useful for discriminating accessions regarding drought tolerance and yield stability, and drought tolerant and susceptible cultivars were identified. Our results confirm that different taro cultivars have different drought avoidance and tolerance strategies to cope with water scarcity. Better yield performers minimised biomass and canopy loss, while tolerance was observed in cultivars that presented low potential yield, but efficiently transferred resources to enhance corm formation. Among the 33 accessions, two local cultivars showed high yield stability and could be considered as suitable parents for breeding programs, while two others are well adapted to drought, but with overall low yield potential.

Logging, exotic plant invasions, and native plant reassembly in a lowland tropical rain forest

AbstractHabitat modification and biological invasions are key drivers of global environmental change. However, the extent and impact of exotic plant invasions in modified tropical landscapes remain poorly understood. We examined whether logging drives exotic plant invasions and whether their combined influences alter understory plant community composition in lowland rain forests in Borneo. We tested the relationship between understory communities and local‐ and landscape‐scale logging intensity, using leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground biomass (AGB) data from 192 plots across a logging‐intensity gradient from primary to repeatedly logged forests. Overall, we found relatively low levels of exotic plant invasions, despite an intensive logging history. Exotic species were more speciose, had greater cover, and more biomass in sites with more local‐scale canopy loss. Surprisingly, though, exotic species invasion was not related to either landscape‐scale canopy loss or road configuration. Moreover, logging and invasion did not seem to be acting synergistically on native plant composition, except that seedlings of the canopy‐dominant Dipterocarpaceae family were less abundant in areas with higher exotic plant biomass. Current low levels of invasion, and limited association with native understory community change, suggest there is a window of opportunity to manage invasive impacts. We caution about potential lag effects and the possibly severe negative impacts of exotic plant invasions on the long‐term quality of tropical forest, particularly where agricultural plantations function as permanent seed sources for recurrent dispersal along logging roads. We therefore urge prioritization of strategic management plans to counter the growing threat of exotic plant invasions in modified tropical landscapes.

Fire-Driven Decline of Endemic Allosyncarpia Monsoon Rainforests in Northern Australia

Although contemporary fire regimes in fire-prone Australian savannas are recognised as having major impacts on an array of biodiversity and environmental values, a number of studies have observed significant monsoon rainforest expansion in recent decades. Here we assess the status of a locally extensive endemic monsoon rainforest type, dominated by Allosyncarpia ternata (Myrtaceae), restricted to sandstone terrain including in the World Heritage property, Kakadu National Park. We undertook assessments of: (1) geographic correlates of Allosyncarpia forest distribution; (2) change in canopy cover at 40 representative forest patches at topographically exposed sites with reference to a 60-year aerial photo and fine-scale image archive, and fire mapping data; and (3) structural characteristics associated with sites exhibiting stable, contracting, and increasing canopy cover. Mean canopy cover at sampled forest patches declined by 9.5% over the study period. Most canopy loss occurred at the most fire-susceptible patches. Assessment of structural characteristics at sampled sites illustrated that canopy expansion represented vegetative recovery rather than expansion de novo. The study (1) confirms the vulnerability of exposed margins of this forest type to fire incursions; (2) illustrates the magnitude of, and describes solutions for addressing, the regional conservation management challenge; and (3) serves as a reminder that, in savanna environments, severe fire regimes can substantially outweigh the woody growth-enhancing effects of other regional (e.g., increased rainfall) and global-scale (e.g., atmospheric CO2 fertilisation) drivers.

Life History and Potential Hosts of Zapatella davisae (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae), a Recent Invader on Black Oak in the Northeastern United States

Abstract Quercus velutina (Black Oak) is a dominant deciduous tree in Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket, MA. In recent years, Black Oak trees in these regions have experienced severe canopy loss due to the infestation of a stem-gall wasp, Zapatella davisae. In addition to infestations first documented in the Cape Cod region in 2012, Zapatella davisae has been present in Long Island, NY, since the 1990s. We investigated the life cycle of Z. davisae, specifically emergence patterns and timing of development. We evaluated differences in the severity of the infestations in Long Island and Cape Cod. We also identified towns in Cape Cod that contained Z. davisae infestations to better estimate the geographic extent of the infestation in the region. We found that Zapatella davisae completes 1 generation per year and emerges throughout the month of May. The severity of the infestation was the greatest in Cape Cod, an indication that something is controlling the population in Long Island. We concluded tha...

More ways than one: Mixed-severity disturbance regimes foster structural complexity via multiple developmental pathways

Abstract Mixed-severity disturbance regimes are prevalent in temperate forests worldwide, but key uncertainties remain regarding the variability of disturbance-mediated structural development pathways. This study investigates the influence of disturbance history on current structure in primary, unmanaged Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests throughout the Carpathian Mountains of central and eastern Europe, where windstorms and native bark beetle outbreaks are the dominant natural disturbances. We inventoried forest structure on 453 plots (0.1 ha) spanning a large geographical gradient (>1,000 km), coring 15–25 canopy trees per plot for disturbance history reconstruction (tree core total n = 11,309). Our specific objectives were to: (1) classify sub-hectare-scale disturbance history based on disturbance timing and severity; (2) classify current forest structure based on tree size distributions (live, dead, standing, downed); (3) characterize structural development pathways as revealed by the association between disturbance history and current forest structural complexity. We used hierarchical cluster analysis for the first two objectives and indicator analysis for the third. The disturbance-based cluster analysis yielded six groups associated with three levels of disturbance severity (low, moderate, and high canopy loss) and two levels of timing (old, recent) over the past 200 years. The structure-based cluster analysis yielded three groups along a gradient of increasing structural complexity. A large majority of plots exhibited relatively high (53%) or very high (26%) structural complexity, indicated by abundant large live trees, standing and downed dead trees, and spruce regeneration. Consistent with conventional models of structural development, some disturbance history groups were associated with specific structural complexity groups, particularly low-severity/recent (very high complexity) and high-severity/recent (moderate complexity) disturbances. In other cases, however, the distribution of plots among disturbance history and structural complexity groups indicated either divergent or convergent pathways. For example, multiple disturbance history groups were significantly associated with the high complexity group, demonstrating structural convergence. These results illustrate that complex forest structure – including features nominally associated with old-growth – can be associated as much with disturbance severity as it is with conventional notions of forest age. Because wind and bark beetles are natural disturbance processes that can induce relatively high levels of tree mortality while simultaneously contributing to structural complexity and heterogeneity, we suggest that forest management plans allow for the stochastic occurrence of disturbance and variable post-disturbance development trajectories. Such applications are especially appropriate in conservation areas where biodiversity and forest resilience are management objectives, particularly given projections of increasing disturbance activity under global change.

Acid atmospheric deposition in a forested mountain catchment

Abstract: Acid atmospheric deposition is harmful to both forest and aquatic ecosystems. In mountain catchments, acidification also leads to difficulties in water resource management. In 2010-2012, acid atmospheric deposition was analysed in a small forest catchment located in the upper plain of the Jizera Mountains (Czech Republic). Patch observations included monitoring of the canopy interception in two mature stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies) at elevations of 745 and 975 metres a.s.l., and twelve passive fog collectors situated along an elevation gradient between 862 and 994 metres a.s.l. In the studied area, fog (and low cloud) precipitation starts to affect the interception loss of the spruce canopy at elevations above 700 metres. However, fog drip was found to also rise with the canopy area. At the catchment scale, methods of spatial interpolation (ArcGIS 10.2) were used to approximate the aerial atmospheric deposition of water and acidic substances (sulphate, nitrate and ammonia). In the watersheds of two adjacent drinking water reservoirs, Josefuv Dul and Sous, the mean annual fog drip from the canopy was between 88 and 106 mm (i.e., 7-8% of the mean annual gross precipitation, or 10-12% of the mean annual runoff). Simultaneously, this load also deposited 658 kg km-2 of sulphur and 216 kg km-2 of nitrogen (i.e., 55% and 48% of the “open field” bulk amounts). Therefore, in headwater catchments stressed by acidification, the additional precipitation (measured under the canopy) can increase the water yield, but can also contribute to a decline in water quality, particularly in environments of low buffering capacity.

Short‐term changes in the structure of termite assemblages associated with slash‐and‐burn agriculture in Côte d'Ivoire

AbstractTermites are major decomposers in tropical regions and play critical roles in many soil‐related processes. Studies conducted in Asia and the Neotropics suggest that habitat modification can strongly affect termite assemblages, but data on termite communities from forests in Africa, especially West Africa, are scarce. Here, we measured the short‐term impact of slash‐and‐burn agriculture on termite assemblages in an agricultural region of central Côte d'Ivoire. We assessed termite diversity and relative abundance in four habitat types: secondary forest, cleared forest, burned forest, and crop fields. The secondary forest had higher species richness compared with the other habitats, but all habitat types had similar assemblage structures. Fungus‐growing termites were the most abundant feeding group in all habitats. Soil feeders were most abundant in secondary forest, intermediately abundant in cleared and burned forests, and almost entirely absent in crop fields. Wood‐feeding species showed clear responses to burning; their abundances decreased after fire. We conclude that slash‐and‐burn agriculture does not appear to severely erode the diversity of termite assemblages. This could be due to the dominance of ecologically versatile fungus growers or to the relatively long time between clearing and burning. However, forest clearing negatively affects soil feeders, with the Apicotermitinae most affected by canopy loss.

Measuring canopy loss and climatic thresholds from an extreme drought along a fivefold precipitation gradient across Texas.

Globally, trees are increasingly dying from extreme drought, a trend that is expected to increase with climate change. Loss of trees has significant ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical consequences. In 2011, a record drought caused widespread tree mortality in Texas. Using remotely sensed imagery, we quantified canopy loss during and after the drought across the state at 30-m spatial resolution, from the eastern pine/hardwood forests to the western shrublands, a region that includes the boundaries of many species ranges. Canopy loss observations in ~200multitemporal fine-scale orthophotos (1-m) were used to train coarser Landsat imagery (30-m) to create 30-m binary statewide canopy loss maps. We found that canopy loss occurred across all major ecoregions of Texas, with an average loss of 9.5%. The drought had the highest impact in post oak woodlands, pinyon-juniper shrublands and Ashe juniper woodlands. Focusing on a 100-km by ~1,000-km transect spanning the State's fivefold east-west precipitation gradient (~1,500 to ~300mm), we compared spatially explicit 2011 climatic anomalies to our canopy loss maps. Much of the canopy loss occurred in areas that passed specific climatic thresholds: warm season anomalies in mean temperature (+1.6°C) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD, +0.66kPa), annual percent deviation in precipitation (-38%), and 2011 difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (-1,206mm). Although similarly low precipitation occurred during the landmark 1950s drought, the VPD and temperature anomalies observed in 2011 were even greater. Furthermore, future climate data under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 trajectory project that average values will surpass the 2011 VPD anomaly during the 2070-2099 period and the temperature anomaly during the 2040-2099 period. Identifying vulnerable ecological systems to drought stress and climate thresholds associated with canopy loss will aid in predicting how forests will respond to a changing climate and how ecological landscapes will change in the near term.