Canadian Forest Sector Research Articles

CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards

The scientific community, forest managers, environmental organizations, carbon-offset trading systems and policy-makers require tools to account for forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. In this paper we describe updates to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) implemented over the past years. This model of carbon-dynamics implements a Tier 3 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Good Practice Guidance for reporting on carbon stocks and carbon stock changes resulting from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The CBM-CFS3 is a generic modelling framework that can be applied at the stand, landscape and national levels. The model provides a spatially referenced, hierarchical system for integrating datasets originating from different forest inventory and monitoring programs and includes a structure that allows for tracking of land areas by different land-use and land-use change classes. Ecosystem pools in CBM-CFS3 can be easily mapped to IPCC-defined pools and validated against field measurements. The model uses sophisticated algorithms for converting volume to biomass and explicitly simulates individual annual disturbance events (natural and anthropogenic). Several important scientific updates have been made to improve the representation of ecosystem structure and processes from previous versions of CBM-CFS. These include: (1) an expanded representation of dead organic matter and soil carbon, particularly standing dead trees, and a new algorithm for initializing these pools prior to simulation, (2) a change in the input data requirement for simulating growth from biomass to readily available merchantable volume curves, and new algorithms for converting volume to biomass, (3) improved prediction of belowground biomass, and (4) improved parameters for soil organic matter decay, fire, insect disturbances, and forest management. In addition, an operational-scale version of CBM-CFS3 is freely available and includes tools to import data in standard formats, including the output of several timber supply models that are commonly used in Canada. Although developed for Canadian forests, the flexible nature of the model has enabled it to be adapted for use in several other countries.

A practical approach for assessing the sensitivity of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)

We present a case study approach to assessing the sensitivity of the dead organic matter sub-module of the operational-scale version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to variation in model parameters controlling inputs to and throughput in this module. Parameters examined included those controlling biomass growth and turnover, dead organic matter decay and model initialization. Our approach is based on the use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis software packages that are freely available on the Internet and accessible to model users. We simulated four different landscapes, three with different species but the same rotation length and one using the same species with two different rotation lengths, to evaluate interactions between modelled scenarios and assumptions about parameter variability. We assessed the impacts of parameter variation on stocks and fluxes. The model was sensitive to variation in parameters controlling the foliage and fine root pathways, but the sensitivity differed depending on whether a softwood or hardwood landscape was being simulated. Our findings indicate that inferences drawn from sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of forest carbon models are specific to the landscapes and time horizons being modelled.

Joint production of timber, carbon, and wildlife habitat in the Canadian boreal plains

This study investigates the relationships and trade-offs between forest carbon management, sustained timber yield, and the production of wildlife habitat to provide a more complete picture of the costs and challenges faced by forest managers for a particular case study in Canada’s boreal mixedwood region. The work presented is an extension of a previously published model that analysed the joint production of timber supply and wildlife habitat using a natural disturbance model approach to ecosystem management. The primary contribution of the present study is the detailed incorporation of a carbon budget model into the framework developed previously. Using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, dynamics specific to separate biomass and dead organic matter carbon pools are represented for individual forest cover types. Results indicate the potential for cost thresholds in the joint production of timber supply and carbon sequestration. These thresholds are linked to switch points in the decision between multiple use and specialized land management practices. Cobenefits in the production of carbon and wildlife habitat are shown to depend on ecological parameters, harvest flow regulations, and incentives for timber supply provided by the market.

Derivation of a spatially explicit 86-year retrospective carbon budget for a landscape undergoing conversion from old-growth to managed forests on Vancouver Island, BC

To understand the influence of disturbance, age–class structure, and land use on landscape-level carbon (C) budgets during conversion of old-growth forests to managed forests, a spatially explicit, retrospective C budget from 1920 through 2005 was developed for the 2500 ha Oyster River area of Fluxnet-Canada's coastal BC Station. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), an inventory-based model, to simulate forest C dynamics. A current (circa 1999) forest inventory for the area was compiled, then overlaid with digitized historic disturbance maps, a 1919 timber cruise map, and a series of historic orthophotographs to generate a GIS coverage of forest cover polygons with unique disturbance histories dating back to 1920. We used the combined data from the historic and current inventory and forest change data to first estimate initial ecosystem C stocks and then to simulate forest dynamics and C budgets for the 86-year period. In 1920, old-growth forest dominated the area and the long-term landscape-level net ecosystem C balance (net biome productivity, NBP) was a small sink (NBP 0.2 Mg C ha −1 year −1). From 1930 to 1945 fires, logging, and slash burning resulted in large losses of biomass C, emissions of C to the atmosphere, and transfers of C from biomass to detritus and wood products (NBP ranged from −3 to −56 Mg C ha −1 year −1). Live biomass C stocks slowly recovered following this period of high disturbance but the area remained a C source until the mid 1950s. From 1960 to 1987 disturbance was minimal and the area was a C sink (NBP ranged from 3 to 6 Mg C ha −1 year −1). As harvest of second-growth forest began in late 1980s, disturbances again dominated the area's C budget, partially offset by ongoing C uptake by biomass in recovering young forests such that the C balance varied from positive to negative depending upon the area disturbed that year (NBP from 6 to −15 Mg C ha −1 year −1). Despite their high productivity, the area's forests are not likely to attain C densities of the landscape prior to industrial logging because the stands will not reach pre-logging ages. Additional work is underway to examine the relative role historic climate variability has had on the landscape-level C budget.

Effects of harvesting intensity on carbon stocks in eastern Canadian red spruce ( Picea rubens) forests: An exploratory analysis using the CBM-CFS3 simulation model

Carbon stocks and stock changes in a chronosequence of 24 red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.) dominated stands in Nova Scotia, Canada, were compared against predictions from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Regression analysis of the observed versus simulated total ecosystem C stocks indicates the model's predictions accounted for 81.1% of the variation in the observed biomass data and for 63.2% of the variation in total ecosystem C data; however, the simultaneous F-test for bias was significant. Discrepancy between the observed and simulated total ecosystem C data was primarily caused by differences in dead organic matter C pool estimates, with the model consistently predicting higher soil C throughout stand development. Changes to model parameters were not warranted however, as the field data measured only a portion of the mineral soil profile represented in the model. Clear-cut and partial-cut harvesting scenarios for red spruce stands were simulated to examine the impacts of clear-cut and partial-cut harvesting on C stocks. Total ecosystem C increased in the partial-cut stand throughout the 240-year simulation from 308.9 to 327.3 Mg C ha −1, while it decreased in the clear-cut stand to 305.8 Mg C ha −1. Enhanced C sequestration in the partial-cut stand was a consequence of the residual standing biomass providing a continuous source of litterfall and reducing decomposition rates of the forest floor. Choice of harvest system clearly affects forest ecosystem C stocks, but also affects the amount of C removed from forests to meet society's needs. Over the period of the simulation, partial cutting provided 115.6 Mg C ha −1 of merchantable timber, while clear-cutting provided 132.4 Mg C ha −1. Strategies aimed at using forest management to mitigate atmospheric C increases need to assess both the direct impacts on the forest ecosystem and the indirect impacts through product and energy substitution associated with the use and storage of harvested biomass.

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

Canadian forestry policy-making: failure and resistance or evolution in turbulent times?

SEPTEMBRE/OCTOBRE 2007, VOL. 83, No 5 — THE FORESTRY CHRONICLE long waves of growth and pressures for perpetual change (Jessop 2002). Economically, the impacts of globalization on the Canadian forest sector are well known (see Hayter and Holmes 2001). However, there has been far less commentary on the relationship between globalization and forest policy-making. The complexity and rapidity of change in the interconnectedness between different policy actors has given rise to increasingly unpredictable change and a growing turbulence in the forest sector (Terreberry 1968). One notable exception, by Kennedy et al. (1998), discusses the transition from a “machine” to an “organic” model of public land management roles and core beliefs. They argue that forestry perspectives radically changed from viewing the sector as composed of simple, independent systems to one that is composed of complex, non-linear, self-organizing, highly integrated systems. Furthermore, there has been a declining and changing role of government agencies (through the reduction of staff and resources) to carry their policies and programs. This, in part, has led to governments playing less of a coordinating and more of a collaboration role with a wide array of policy actors. We present these two views as lenses to examine forest policy-making in Canada. This special issue of The Forestry Chronicle brings together ten articles from authors from diverse backgrounds and representing different aspects of Canada’s forest policy community. These articles provide a sample of the interaction of actors, issues and ideas, and institutions. It is our intention to contribute to the growing forestry policy research literature. The articles examine the policy process at different scales, from the local level (woodlot, watershed) to the international. The content and nature of objectives of each paper may be quite different, but each develops policy options informed by social science and biological research and in some cases consultation with experts and stakeholders. Within these scales, different aspects of policy development and implementation are introduced, examined, and discussed. The first paper, Has the time come to rethink Canada’s Crown forest tenure systems? by David Haley and Harry Nelson critically examines Canada’s forestry tenure system. The authors address two important questions: has the time come to rethink the forest tenure system; and, if so, what directions might these reforms take? They describe the desirCanadian forestry policy-making: failure and resistance or evolution in turbulent times?

Spatial distribution of carbon in natural and managed stands in an industrial forest in New Brunswick, Canada

Industrial forest could be managed to enhance carbon (C) sequestration together with other ecological and socio-economic objectives. However, this requires quantifying C dynamics of all major forest types within the management area, over the whole forest rotation. We used data from permanent sample plots and temporary forest development survey plots to generate volume yield curves and used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate C yield and dynamics over a rotation for major forest types in northern New Brunswick, Canada. We compared C yields of natural versus managed and hardwood versus softwood forest under different silviculture treatments over the entire rotation. Carbon in 40–80-year-old and > 80-year-old tolerant hardwood stands averaged about 115 and 130–142 t ha −1, respectively, while softwood spruce ( Picea sp.)–balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) 40–80 and > 80 years old averaged 90 and 88–94 t C ha −1. Among 10 stand types, total C ranged from 50 to 109 t ha −1 at age 50 years, 92–138 t ha −1 at age 100, and 79–145 t ha −1at age 150 years. C in most stand types declined from age 100 to 150 years, except for eastern white cedar ( Thuja occidentalis L.), sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) and yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis Britton). At age 100 years, planted softwood stands had 94–135 t ha −1, versus 92–117 t ha −1 for natural softwoods and 127–138 t ha −1 for natural hardwoods. Planted white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and natural sugar maple and yellow birch sequestered the most C. The total C (above and belowground biomass and deadwood, excluding soil carbon) on the 428,000 ha test landbase was 35 million tonnes, or an average of 82 t ha −1.

Gender representation on Canadian forest sector advisory committees

This paper presents a gender-based analysis of a national survey of 102 Canadian forest sector advisory committees. We consider both nominal and effective participation of participants and pay particular attention to how participants gained access to committees, what values they held, and what kinds of experiences they reported. Our analysis revealed that women comprise less than 20 percent of the membership of advisory committees, they hold significantly different values, and they rate their experiences less favourably than men. Consequently, exclusion of women has likely reinforced a timber extraction bias and has restricted women's contributions to advancing the aims of sustainable forestry. Key words: forest sector advisory committees, gender, public participation, forestry

A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of the Canadian forest sector

We present a framework for assessing the vulnerability of the Canadian forest sector to climate variability and change. The framework includes factors of exposure, system sensitivity and adaptive capacity, which are applied to the Canadian forest sector. We summarize sources of exposure and sensitivities of the Canadian forest sector and then address the adaptive capacity of forest management and forest-based communities. We suggest that the adaptive capacity of the forest sector is likely to be high, but needs to be rigorously tested. We conclude by advocating a national forest sector vulnerability assessment, and emphasize that this needs to be an inclusive, stakeholder-driven process. Key words: climate change, adaptation, vulnerability, forest sector, forest communities

Does the Canadian forest sector have a viable future? Is current forest management acceptable to the general public? Would you advise your kids to take forestry?

The forest sector in Canada is in the midst of some major changes, with mill closures and rationalization, major public reviews of Crown land management in several provinces, and declining enrollment in forestry programs across Canada and internationally. I will address the three questions in my title, provide some information, as well as my opinions regarding the answers (yes, no, and yes, respectively). Key words: forest industry competitiveness, public consultation, future directions of Crown land management, public perception, forestry enrollment

Estimating direct carbon emissions from Canadian wildland fires

In support of Canada’s National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System, a project was initiated to develop and test procedures for estimating direct carbon emissions from fires. The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) provides the infrastructure for these procedures. Area burned and daily fire spread estimates are derived from satellite products. Spatially and temporally explicit indices of burning conditions for each fire are calculated by CWFIS using fire weather data. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) provides detailed forest type and leading species information, as well as pre-fire fuel load data. The Boreal Fire Effects Model calculates fuel consumption for different live biomass and dead organic matter pools in each burned cell according to fuel type, fuel load, burning conditions, and resulting fire behaviour. Carbon emissions are calculated from fuel consumption. CWFIS summarises the data in the form of disturbance matrices and provides spatially explicit estimates of area burned for national reporting. CBM-CFS3 integrates, at the national scale, these fire data with data on forest management and other disturbances. The methodology for estimating fire emissions was tested using a large-fire pilot study. A framework to implement the procedures at the national scale is described.

Modeling Canadian wildland fire carbon emissions with the Boreal Fire Effects (BORFIRE) model

Wildland fires in Canada burn an average of2.8 million hectares of forest annually. In years of extreme forest fire activity. total carbon emissions from wildland fires approach levels similar to industrial carbon emissions. Quantifying annual wildland fire carbon emissions is required for Canada to meet its international reporting obligations. Carbon emission rates within a fire vary considerably due to fire behaviour within the burn perimeter. Large fires typically burn a wide range of fuel types under weather conditions that change as the fire spreads across the landscape. This causes huge spatial and temporal variation in fuel consumption. which is directly related to carbon emissions. To capture spatial and temporal variability. the Boreal Fire Effects (BORFIRE) model estimates carbon emissions using detailed fuel and weather data. BORFIRE is initialized with forest inventory data to establish preburn fuel loads for forest stand components. including live tree material (coarse roots. fine roots. stemwood. branchwood, foliage). standing dead trees (stemvI'ood. branchwood). dead and downed wood (coarse woody debris, medium woody debris). and forest floor organic matter (surface litter. duff). Carbon loss from each component is based on fuel consumption. which is calculated using fuel-specific fire behaviour models and burning conditions quantified by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. Fire rate of spread is determined using the Initial Spread Index (lSI) of the FWI System and rate of spread algorithms of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. This is combined with surface fuel consumption to calculate surface fire intensity using Byram's equation. I l' surface fire intensity exceeds the crown fire threshold. fuel consumption of aerial fuels is calculated. After determining carbon emissions. BORFIRE calculates the carbon transfers between stand components. BORFIRE has been incorporated as a submodel in the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). and procedures have been developed to link CWFIS with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to operationally calculate carbon emissions for Canadian wildland tires.

The Not So Clear-Cut Nature of Organizational Legitimating Mechanisms in the Canadian Forest Sector

The Canadian forest sector provides a rich contextual basis for examining organizational legitimacy and legitimating mechanisms. The author used qualitative methods and discourse analysis to explore how the Canadian forest sector exhibits a hybrid mix of substantive and symbolic management of legitimacy and of procedural and symbolic processes of legitimation. Findings support the mystifying nature of “green” legitimation and the superficial and mystifying nature of some of the discourse that is being used in this sector. In some cases, language is being used to attempt to change definitions of social legitimacy to enhance a record of sustainable forest management practice.

De-centering environmental governance: A short history and analysis of democratic processes in the forest sector of Alberta, Canada

This paper describes the emergence of a de-centered and privatized mode of governance in the Canadian forest sector. Using deliberative democratic theory as a descriptive foundation, it explores two key social facts that are arguably central to any historical analysis of this trend. First, increasing cultural pluralism challenges contemporary society to create new institutional arrangements that can incorporate a much larger, and often contested, array of public values into decision-making processes. Second, as management systems become more complex and science-driven, decision makers are finding it increasingly difficult to resolve issues of uncertainty and conflicting scientific evidence. De-centered forms of public participation provide important opportunities for government and industry to overcome these contemporary challenges, but certain side effects are also apparent. From the steering tactics of sponsoring agencies and corporations to the “ghettoizing” of environmental discourses, several implications are discussed.

Perspectives on sustainable development and sustainability in the Canadian forest sector

Decisions made about forest resources are increasingly dominated by concerns about limits, trade-offs, and diminishing returns from commodities. By focusing on sustainable development and the transformative power of human ingenuity, forest resources we need not regard as finite. The value of sustainable development lies in its power to place scientific and technical innovation into a dynamic framework relevant to those making policy and management decisions. Key words: sustainable development, natural resources, limits, forest sector, commodities, innovation

Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol

The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between 1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management actions.

Temporal changes of forest net primary production and net ecosystem production in west central Canada associated with natural and anthropogenic disturbances

Temporal variations of net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in west central Canadian forests over the period of 1920–1995 and their responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances were simulated using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2). The results show that forest NPP in the region was 215 g C·year–1·m–2 in 1920, varied between 105 and 317 g·C year–1·m–2 depending on ecoclimatic province, but gradually increased to 330 (158 to 395) g C·year–1·m–2 in the early 1980s before declining to 290 (148 to 395) g C·year–1·m–2 by 1995. Forest NEP was estimated to be 53 (–13 to 88) g C·year–1·m–2 in 1920–1924, increased to 75 (5 to 98) g C·year–1·m–2 in 1960, and then declined to 26 (–14 to 53) g C·year–1·m–2 in 1991–1995. Natural disturbances played a greater role than harvest in determining the temporal pattern of forest NPP and NEP during the period because of the larger area affected by natural disturbances. This study also indicated that ignoring disturbances would lead to an overestimation of forest NPP and NEP in ecosystem modeling.

The Canadian Forest Service: Agent of change in an evolving forest environment

The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) has set new goals and priorities in its Strategic Plan 2003–2008, re-examining the knowledge it creates and the ways in which that knowledge is created. This is in line with the Government of Canada's pursuit of a global strategy for Canadian science and technology, supporting more collaborative international research at the frontiers of knowledge. Also, with the Canadian forest industry facing new and non-traditional competitors and repositioning its product mix, CFS is encountering increased expectations from its external partners, clients and stakeholders—as the primary forest research agency in the country and the main federal body ensuring the competitiveness of the industry. CFS is, therefore, re-defining its role as the leading player in the Canadian forest sector by re-evaluating how it does business. CFS will spearhead the development and implementation of a new national forest S&T agenda, becoming Canada's premier source of authoritative, value-added forest information. It will also champion Canadian forest interests and expertise internationally while strengthening national consensus on Canadian forest policies and programs and advocating Canada's forest agenda within the federal government. To this end, CFS will attract and support talented personnel by creating a workplace conducive to creativity. Key words: Strategic Plan, global S&T strategy, non-traditional competitors, product mix, value-added forest information

Le service canadien des forêts: Agent de changement dans un environnement forestier en évolution

The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) has set new goals and priorities in its Strategic Plan 2003–2008, re-examining the knowledge it creates and the ways in which that knowledge is created. This is in line with the Government of Canada's pursuit of a global strategy for Canadian science and technology, supporting more collaborative international research at the frontiers of knowledge. Also, with the Canadian forest industry facing new and non-traditional competitors and repositioning its product mix, CFS is encountering increased expectations from its external partners, clients and stakeholders—as the primary forest research agency in the country and the main federal body ensuring the competitiveness of the industry. CFS is, therefore, re-defining its role as the leading player in the Canadian forest sector by re-evaluating how it does business. CFS will spearhead the development and implementation of a new national forest S&T agenda, becoming Canada's premier source of authoritative, value-added forest information. It will also champion Canadian forest interests and expertise internationally while strengthening national consensus on Canadian forest policies and programs and advocating Canada's forest agenda within the federal government. To this end, CFS will attract and support talented personnel by creating a workplace conducive to creativity. Key words: Strategic Plan, global S&T strategy, non-traditional competitors, product mix, value-added forest information