Bull Trout Research Articles

Genetic analysis of Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) across its North American range: evidence for a contact zone in southcentral Alaska

Contact zones between divergent lineages of aquatic taxa have been described from the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We surveyed samples of Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) from their North American range for variation at 14 microsatellite DNA loci. After accounting for hybridization between Dolly Varden and co-occurring bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), we found evidence for two genetic lineages of Dolly Varden consistent with the previously recognized subspecies, northern Dolly Varden (S. m. malma) and southern Dolly Varden (S. m. lordii). We documented a contact zone between the two subspecies from the eastern Alaska Peninsula to Cook Inlet, Alaska, where admixture values (i.e., the proportion of the genome estimated to be composed of northern Dolly Varden, QNDV) ranged between QNDV= 0.245 and 0.754 across about 700 ocean kilometres. Populations of Dolly Varden showing low admixture (i.e., less than 5%) were located a minimum of 346 km to the west to 1200 km to the southeast, respectively, from the contact zone. The two lineages of Dolly Varden probably stem from isolation and subsequent divergence in, and dispersal from, distinct northern and southern Pleistocene glacial refugia and substantiate the treatment of S. malma as two subspecies and as at least two designatable units under Canada’s Species at Risk Act.

Food chain transfer and exposure effects of selenium in salmonid fish communities in two watersheds in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Selenium (Se) concentrations and fish biomass were examined in streams in two mined watersheds to determine if juvenile salmonids reflect local Se exposure concentrations downstream of surface coal mines and to investigate the relationship between Se exposure and toxicity effects at the fish community level. Se concentrations were measured in water, biofilm, macroinvertebrates, and muscle tissues from juvenile westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi), bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in mine-affected and reference streams. Significant positive Se transfer relationships were found at each measured level of the lotic food chain. Se accumulation from macroinvertebrates to juvenile fish muscle tissue was not significantly different among fish species, but indicated a significant positive relationship between juvenile fish muscle tissue and dietary Se at capture sites. Mean muscle Se concentrations in some stream reaches exceeded proposed individual-level toxic effective concentrations (EC10) in rainbow trout (3.14 ± 0.38 to 15.07 ± 2.24 mg·kg–1 dry mass) and westslope cutthroat trout (3.31 ± 0.32 to 13.79 ± 1.27 mg·kg–1 dry mass), but fish biomass at the reach scale was only significantly negatively related to mean fish muscle tissue Se concentrations for rainbow trout.

Trophic Ontogeny of Fluvial Bull Trout and Seasonal Predation on Pacific Salmon in a Riverine Food Web

AbstractBull Trout Salvelinus confluentus are typically top predators in their host ecosystems. The Skagit River in northwestern Washington State contains Bull Trout and Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha populations that are among the largest in the Puget Sound region and also contains a regionally large population of steelhead O. mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout). All three species are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Our objective was to determine the trophic ecology of Bull Trout, especially their role as predators and consumers in the riverine food web. We seasonally sampled distribution, diets, and growth of Bull Trout in main‐stem and tributary habitats during 2007 and winter–spring 2008. Consumption rates were estimated with a bioenergetics model to (1) determine the annual and seasonal contributions of different prey types to Bull Trout energy budgets and (2) estimate the potential impacts of Bull Trout predation on juvenile Pacific salmon populations. Salmon carcasses and eggs contributed approximately 50% of the annual energy budget for large Bull Trout in main‐stem habitats, whereas those prey types were largely inaccessible to smaller Bull Trout in tributary habitats. The remaining 50% of the energy budget was acquired by eating juvenile salmon, resident fishes, and immature aquatic insects. Predation on listed Chinook Salmon and steelhead/Rainbow Trout was highest during winter and spring (January–June). Predation on juvenile salmon differed between the two study years, likely due to the dominant odd‐year spawning cycle for Pink Salmon O. gorbuscha. The population impact on ocean‐ and stream‐type Chinook Salmon was negligible, whereas the impact on steelhead/Rainbow Trout was potentially very high. Due to the ESA‐listed status of Bull Trout, steelhead, and Chinook Salmon, the complex trophic interactions in this drainage provide both challenges and opportunities for creative adaptive management strategies.

Estimating occupancy and detection probability of juvenile bull trout using backpack electrofishing gear in a west-central Alberta watershed

Occupancy modeling is well suited to quantitative assessment of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) distribution at multiple scales. We used models to estimate occupancy of juvenile bull trout (≤150 mm fork length) in a west-central Alberta watershed. Based on a backpack electrofishing survey of 92 sites, we assessed the relative importance of stream habitat characteristics on detection probability (p) and potential for false absences to bias occupancy estimates. Median distance to first bull trout detection was 16 m (range 0–289 m). Models including ambient water conductivity as a covariate of detection probability were most supported with an 85 μS·cm−1increase resulting in over a tenfold increase in detection. Conditional detection probability using backpack electrofishing gear approached 95% in the first 200 m of effort in streams with a conductivity around 200 μS·cm−1. The potential for false absences in our study area was relatively low. Modeled site ([Formula: see text] = 0.53; SE = 0.13) and patch-scale ([Formula: see text] = 0.47; SE = 0.12) occupancy closely corresponded to naive (i.e., assuming p = 1) estimates (0.47 and 0.43, respectively). Our results highlight the potential efficiencies of an occupancy modeling approach when assessing fish distribution, but careful consideration of model assumptions is necessary.

Consequences of Actively Managing a Small Bull Trout Population in a Fragmented Landscape

AbstractHabitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual‐based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age‐2, age‐3, or age‐4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age‐3 or age‐4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age‐2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density‐independent perturbations.

Evaluation of lipid sources in diets fed to bull trout,Salvelinus confluentus

To aid in development of nutritionally complete diets, a 12-week experiment was conducted to identify appropriate sources of dietary lipid for bull trout. The basal diet was top-coated with marine fish oil (MFO) (pollock liver oil), canola oil (CO), linseed oil (LO) or a mixture of canola and linseed oils (CLO) to produce four treatments. Each diet was fed to triplicate groups of fish initially averaging 1.6 g per fish. Weight gain, feed efficiency, survival and carcass proximate composition were not significantly different among fish fed the dietary treatments. However, whole-body fatty acid percentages varied significantly among fish fed the four diets. Whole bodies of fish fed diets with vegetable oil (VO) contained significantly higher 18:2n-6, 18:3n-3 and total n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid percentages and significantly lower 20:5n-3, 22:6n-3 and total saturated fatty acid percentages compared with fish fed the MFO diet. Whole-body fatty acid percentages also varied among fish fed VO diets. Despite similar 18:2n-6 and 20:4n-6 percentages in the VO diets, fish fed diet CO contained significantly lower 18:2n-6 proportions and significantly higher 20:4n-6 proportions compared with fish fed other VO diets. Results of this study suggest dietary fish oil is not required for short-term rearing of bull trout.

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout.

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4-7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r=-0.77; P<0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

Identifying Temperature Thresholds Associated with Fish Community Changes in British Columbia, Canada, to Support Identification of Temperature Sensitive Streams

AbstractWe collected fish samples and measured physical habitat characteristics, including summer stream temperatures, at 156 sites in 50 tributary streams in two sampling areas (Upper Fraser and Thompson Rivers) in British Columbia, Canada. Additional watershed characteristics were derived from GIS coverages of watershed, hydrological and climatic variables. Maximum weekly average temperature (MWAT), computed as an index of summer thermal regime, ranged from 10 to 23 °C. High values of MWAT were associated with large, warm, low relief watersheds with a high lake influence. Measures of community similarity suggested that the fish community changed most rapidly through a lower transition zone at an MWAT of about 12 °C and an upper transition zone at an MWAT of about 19 °C. These results were confirmed using existing fisheries inventory data combined with predictions of MWAT from a landscape‐scale regression model for the Thompson River watershed. For headwater sites in the Chilcotin River watershed (which drains into the middle Fraser River), the relative dominance of bull trout versus rainbow trout (based on inventory data) decreased with increasing predicted MWAT although the distinction was not as clear as for the Thompson River sites. The fish communities in these watersheds can be characterized in terms of very cold water (bull trout and some cold water species), cold water (salmonids and sculpins) and cool water (minnows and some cold water salmonids). The two transition zones (ca 12 and 19 °C) can be used to identify thresholds where small changes in stream temperature can be expected to lead to large changes in fish communities. Such clear, quantifiable thresholds are critical components of a management strategy designed to identify and protect vulnerable fish communities in streams where poor land use practices, alone or in combination with climatic change, can lead to changes in stream temperatures. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Multiscale hydrogeomorphic influences on bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) spawning habitat

We investigated multiscale hydrogeomorphic influences on the distribution and abundance of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) spawning in snowmelt-dominated streams of the upper Flathead River basin, northwestern Montana. Within our study reaches, bull trout tended to spawn in the finest available gravel substrates. Analysis of the mobility of these substrates, based on one-dimensional hydraulic modeling and calculation of dimensionless shear stresses, indicated that bed materials in spawning reaches would be mobilized at moderate (i.e., 2-year recurrence interval) high-flow conditions, although the asynchronous timing of the fall–winter egg incubation period and typical late spring – early summer snowmelt high flows in our study area may limit susceptibility to redd scour under current hydrologic regimes. Redd occurrence also tended to be associated with concave-up bedforms (pool tailouts) with downwelling intragravel flows. Streambed temperatures tracked stream water diurnal temperature cycles to a depth of at least 25 cm, averaging 6.1–8.1 °C in different study reaches during the spawning period. Ground water provided thermal moderation of stream water for several high-density spawning reaches. Bull trout redds were more frequent in unconfined alluvial valley reaches (8.5 versus 5.0 redds·km−1 in confined valley reaches), which were strongly influenced by hyporheic and groundwater – stream water exchange. A considerable proportion of redds were patchily distributed in confined valley reaches, however, emphasizing the influence of local physical conditions in supporting bull trout spawning habitat. Moreover, narrowing or “bounding” of these alluvial valley segments did not appear to be important. Our results suggest that geomorphic, thermal, and hydrological factors influence bull trout spawning occurrence at multiple spatial scales.

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Extensive feeding on sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka smolts by bull trout Salvelinus confluentus during initial outmigration into a small, unregulated and inland British Columbia river.

Stomach contents were collected and analysed from 22 bull trout Salvelinus confluentus at the edge of the Chilko Lake and Chilko River in British Columbia, Canada, during spring outmigration of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka smolts. Twenty of the 22 (>90%) stomachs contained prey items, virtually all identifiable prey items were outmigrant O. nerka smolts and stomach contents represented a large portion (0·0-12·6%) of estimated S. confluentus mass. The results demonstrate nearly exclusive and intense feeding by S. confluentus on outmigrant smolts, and support recent telemetry observations of high disappearance rates of O. nerka smolts leaving large natural lake systems prior to entering high-order unregulated river systems.

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species.

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced numbers in certain vulnerable populations. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web-based interactive mapping prototype, should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.

Effects of fine sediment, hyporheic flow, and spawning site characteristics on survival and development of bull trout embryos

Successful spawning is imperative for the persistence of salmonid populations, but relatively little research has been conducted to evaluate factors affecting early life-stage survival for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), a threatened char. We conducted a field experiment to assess the relationship between site-specific environmental factors and bull trout embryo survival and fry emergence timing. Survival from egg to hatch was negatively related to percent fine sediment (&lt;1 mm) in the redd and positively related to the strength of downwelling at spawning sites. Survival of eggs to fry emergence was also negatively related to fine sediment, and the best statistical models included additional variables that described the rate of downwelling and intragravel flow within the incubation environment. Fry emerged at an earlier stage in development from redds with high percentages of fine sediment. Increased hydraulic conductivity via redd construction and selection of spawning sites with strong downwelling appear to enhance hyporheic flow rates and bull trout egg survival, but early life-stage success may ultimately be limited by intrusion of fine sediment into the incubation environment.

Evidence of climate-induced range contractions in bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain watershed, U.S.A.

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments.

Lateral inflows, stream‐groundwater exchange, and network geometry influence stream water composition

AbstractThe role of stream networks and their hydrologic interaction with hillslopes and shallow groundwater in modifying and transporting watershed signals is an area of active research. One of the primary ways that stream networks can modify watershed signals is through spatially variable stream gains and losses, described herein as hydrologic turnover. We measured hydrologic gain and loss at the reach scale using tracer experiments throughout the Bull Trout watershed in the Sawtooth Mountains of Idaho. We extended the results of reach scale experiments to the stream network using empirical relationships between (1) watershed area and stream discharge and (2) stream discharge and percent stream water loss to the groundwater system. We thus incorporate linkages between (1) hillslopes and stream networks via lateral inflows and (2) stream networks and shallow groundwater via hydrologic exchange. We implemented these relationships within a concise analytical framework to simulate hydrologic turnover across stream networks and estimate the variable influence exerted by upstream reaches and streamflow source locations on stream water composition across stream networks. Application to six natural Sawtooth watersheds and seven synthetic watersheds with varying topographic structure and stream network geometry indicated that contributions to discharge from any upstream source depend on the magnitude of the initial input, but also on the distribution of hydrologic turnover occurring along the stream network. The evolution of stream water source compositions along stream networks was unique in each watershed due to the combination of watershed structure and stream network geometry. Our results suggest that a distributed representation of hydrologic turnover at the stream network scale can improve understanding of how the stream network can modify source water compositions along the stream.

Status of Redband Trout in the Upper Snake River Basin of Idaho

AbstractRedband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri are likely the most abundant and most widely distributed native salmonid in the Columbia River basin, yet their current distribution and abundance across the landscape have not been well documented. We sampled 1,032 randomly distributed stream sites (usually 100 m in length) across more than 60,000 km of stream network to assess Redband Trout occupancy, abundance, and genetic purity in the upper Snake River basin of Idaho. Study locations were more often in dry desert subbasins (49% of sites) than in montane subbasins (20%), and 25% of the dry “stream sites” had no discernible stream channel whatsoever, indicating a lack of flowing water for perhaps millennia. Redband Trout were estimated to occupy 13,485 km of stream (22% of the total) and were captured more often (389 sites) than Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis (128 sites), Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus (37 sites), or Brown Trout Salmo trutta (16 sites). Redband Trout were also the most abundant species of trout, with an approximate abundance of 3,449,000 ± 402,000 (90% confidence interval) of all sizes, followed by Brook Trout (1,501,000 ± 330,000), Bull Trout (159,000 ± 118,000), and Brown Trout (43,000 ± 25,000). Approximately 848,000 ± 128,000 Redband Trout were adults. From 1913 (the earliest year of record) to 2001, roughly 43 million hatchery Rainbow Trout were stocked in streams in the study area, 17.5 million of which were of catchable size (i.e., ≥200 mm total length); since 2001, all catchable trout have been sterilized prior to stocking. Genetic results from 61 study sites suggest that hybridization with hatchery Rainbow Trout is more likely to occur in streams that were directly stocked with catchable trout from 1913 to 2001. Applying these results across the landscape, we estimated that Redband Trout likely remain pure in about 68% of the streams occupied in the upper Snake River basin.Received November 13, 2012; accepted January 9, 2014

Population Changes after 14 Years of Harvest Closure on a Migratory Population of Bull Trout in Idaho

AbstractPrimary data (size and age structure, abundance) and derived data (growth, mortality, recruitment) were used to assess the status and trends of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in the North Fork of the Clearwater River, Idaho, under a 14‐year harvest closure. From 2000 (6 years after harvest closure) to 2008, an increase in the number of larger and older migratory Bull Trout occurred, as evidenced by the rightward shift in the cumulative length‐frequency distribution, increases in mean total length and weight, and increases in age. The stability in growth rates over an 8‐year interval indicated that the increases in size structure were age related (e.g., recruitment and mortality changes) rather than growth related. The abundance of migratory spawning adults also steadily increased over the period 1994–2008, as indicated by the increases in redd counts. A logistic model fitted to population estimates (not including unsampled portions of the drainage where migratory Bull Trout are known to exist) indicated that the rate of population growth as of 2005 was beginning to slow and that a carrying capacity of 5,215 total migratory adults will be asymptotically approached, surpassing the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's drainage‐wide recovery goal of 5,000 total adults. The results from an age‐structured population model (model 1) indicated a carrying capacity (5,716 migratory adults) similar to that of the logistic model. If the results under model 1 are achieved, the migratory adult population (including nonspawning adults) will surpass 5,000 adults in 2019. The results under a second model depicted a lower carrying capacity (3,592 fish). This analytical approach has promise for application in situations where harvest restrictions or the elimination of fishing are part of Bull Trout restoration programs.Received August 8, 2013; accepted December 11, 2013

Repeatability of movement behaviour in a wild salmonid revealed by telemetry

Movement estimates derived from sub-daily tracking of radio-tagged bull trout Salvelinus confluentus on the Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada, were used to test whether interindividual variation in behaviour was repeatable among contexts, both short- and long-term. Interindividual variation in S. confluentus behaviour was consistent across contexts. These findings emphasize the potential for telemetry as a tool in animal personality and temperament research.

Bull Trout Trends in Abundance and Probabilities of Persistence in Idaho

AbstractWe estimated the population growth rates of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus and used population growth models to evaluate observation error and estimate Bull Trout persistence probabilities by using 25 data sets (averaging 19 years of record) that indexed abundance across Idaho. These data sets were derived from a variety of fish sampling techniques, including weirs, screw traps, redd counts, daytime snorkeling, electrofishing, and angler creel. Bull Trout populations in Idaho were relatively stable prior to 1994, but after 1994, substantially more population growth rates trended statistically upward (n = 14) than downward (n = 3). Average intrinsic rates of population change were 0.01 (SE = 0.03) prior to 1994 and 0.07 (SE = 0.02) after 1994; across all years of data, the rate of change averaged 0.07 (SE = 0.02). Fifty‐nine percent of the data sets had zero to minimal observation error according to Gompertz state‐space model estimates; observation error was least common in data from screw traps and redd counts and most common in snorkel data. Gompertz‐type density‐dependent models were most often the best‐fitting models for Bull Trout population growth. Moreover, few of the most reliable modeling results (i.e., those from data sets estimated to have zero to minimal observation error) contained a period effect or time (i.e., year) effect, suggesting that carrying capacity generally did not differ between the pre‐1994 and post‐1994 periods and generally was not trending positively or negatively through time. Parametric bootstraps predicted that the mean probability of falling below the quasi‐extinction level of 20 adults in the next 30 years was 9.8% (median = 4.7%) for data sets estimated to have zero to minimal observation error. The weight of evidence from our modeling results suggests that for most Bull Trout populations in Idaho, abundance is stable or increasing and the risk of extirpation in the foreseeable future is low.Received March 12, 2013; accepted November 18, 2013Published online February 10, 2014

Potential future climate effects on mountain hydrology, stream temperature, and native salmonid life history

Native salmonids of western North America are subject to many environmental pressures, most notably the effects of introduced species and environmental degradation. To better understand how native salmonids on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains may respond to future changes in climate, we applied a process-based approach to hydrologic and stream temperature modelling. This study demonstrates that stream thermal regimes in western Alberta, Canada, may only warm during the summer period, while colder thermal regimes during spring, fall, and winter could result from response to earlier onset of spring freshet. Model results of future climate impacts on hydrology and stream temperature are corroborated by an intercatchment comparison of stream temperature, air temperature, and hydrological conditions. Earlier fry emergence as a result of altered hydrological and thermal regimes may favour native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisii) in isolated headwater streams. Colder winter stream temperatures could result in longer incubation periods for native bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and limit threatened westslope cutthroat trout habitat.