Urban residential fires seriously threaten public safety, causing significant property damage and severely impacting urban sustainability. To enhance the understanding of urban residential fire risks, a framework that combines tree-based machine learning algorithms and resampling techniques is proposed to predict damage and casualties in residential building fires. All algorithms achieved similar results on the original dataset, with 86 % and 93 % accuracy and the highest average F1 scores of 61 % and 51 %, respectively. Various resampling techniques addressed the issue of data imbalance, with the combination of random undersampling and SMOTE achieving the best model performance, elevating the average F1 scores to 75 % and 77 %, representing improvements of 14 % and 26 % over the original dataset, respectively. Furthermore, the internal mechanisms of the model were explored using the explainable Shapley additive explanations, which identified the key features influencing model outputs. Additionally, the study revealed significant heterogeneity in different regions, sources of ignition, causes of fires, types of residences, locations of fire origin, and types of households. This research not only improves emergency response strategies for urban residential fires but also provides tailored fire safety policies to reduce risks in various urban environments effectively.
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