British Election Research Articles

Local knowledge, local learning and predicting election outcomes: voter assessments of likely party success in Scotland's constituencies at the 2015 and 2017 general elections

Political scientists often debate how much information people have and deploy when making electoral decisions. Some scholars suggest that voters are aware of which party is likely to win in their local constituency at British general elections; however, this might not be the case in situations when there is substantial and spatially varying change in the relative fortunes of two or more parties between elections. That argument is evaluated here using as a case study the 2015 and 2017 general elections in Scotland: at the first, the SNP's vote share more than doubled, and it won 56 of the country's 59 seats, having won just six at the previous contest; at the second, its vote share fell by about a third, and it lost 21 of those 56 seats. Analysis of British Election Survey data collected before and during the campaigns preceding those elections shows that most respondents were aware of the SNP's surge in 2015 and expected their victory in every constituency. In 2017, most voters were aware which of the SNP's three competitors was the biggest threat in each constituency, and that awareness became clearer during the campaign; yet, voters – especially those who identified with the SNP and were contacted by it during the campaign – still (incorrectly) anticipated a local SNP victory.

Popularity equilibrium: Testing a general theory of local campaign effectiveness

Parties and candidates target campaign resources where they are most likely to pay electoral dividends. At the individual level it has been shown that some individuals are more likely to be persuaded by campaign contacts than others. In a parallel tradition of measuring campaign effectiveness at the macro level, previous research has demonstrated that local candidate campaign effort measured is significantly related to electoral performance. However, while there is evidence suggestive of macro level effects, there is little systematic evidence about the district level conditions under which campaign efforts are most productive. Drawing on extensive data across six UK general elections between 1992 and 2015, we advance a theory of local campaign efficacy and test a general model of popularity equilibrium. We demonstrate that there is a curvilinear relationship between the underlying level of party support in an electoral district and the intensity of the district-level campaign – there is a ‘sweet-spot’ for maximizing the returns of campaign effort.

Book review: Gender, Power and Political Speech: Women and Language in the 2015 UK General Election by Deborah Cameron and Sylvia Shaw

Book review: Gender, Power and Political Speech: Women and Language in the 2015 UK General Election by Deborah Cameron and Sylvia Shaw

Praying on Brexit? Unpicking the Effect of Religion on Support for European Union Integration and Membership

AbstractThis article examines how religious affiliation shapes support for European Union membership. While previous research has shown that Protestants are typically more eurosceptic than Catholics, little is known about the nature of this relationship: specifically, whether religion affects one's utilitarian assessments of the costs and benefits of membership, or one's affective attachment to the EU. Using the 2016 British Election Study Referendum Panel, this article shows that religious affiliation influences both sets of attitudes, suggesting that the values and shared history associated with one's religion shapes how a voter perceives the performance of the EU in delivering its policy objectives, and its operation as a legitimate institution. Moreover, some findings from previous research are challenged: Protestants are not as unified in their scepticism of the EU as is widely assumed, and the positive relationship between Catholicism and support for EU integration is not apparent in the UK.

The Rise of Partisan Affective Polarization in the British Public

Partisan affective polarization is an increasingly salient feature of American political life. Yet, this phenomenon and its drivers have received comparatively little attention in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by systematically analyzing trends in partisan animosity among the British public between 1997 and 2018. Using data from the British Election Study (BES), we demonstrate that British partisans, especially older and strong identifiers, have become substantially more hostile towards opposite parties while favorizing their own over the past two decades. Against conventional wisdom which associates partisan animosity with divergences in policy attitudes, our data show that political identity — particularly the degree of one’s attachment to a political party — is a much stronger predictor of voters’ affective evaluations than holding extreme policy views or displaying consistent ideological and partisan loyalties.

Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP

This article presents a case study of the emergence of the issue-linkage necessary for a cross-cutting European Union cleavage to become electorally salient. We argue that a key political decision on immigration in 2004 facilitated the emergence of a new dimension of party competition and growth in popular support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leading eventually to the 2016 EU Referendum. To examine this thesis, we trace the impact of the UK government’s immigration policy on (i) rising immigration, (ii) the political salience of immigration, (iii) the increasing association between concern about immigration and Euroscepticism, and (iv) the emergence of a cross-cutting dimension of party competition coalescing around support for UKIP. The analysis combines information from official immigration rates, media reporting on immigration, Mori polls, continuous monitoring surveys, and the British Election Study.

Oh Jeremy Corbyn! Why did Labour Party membership soar after the 2015 general election?

This article investigates the remarkable surge in individual membership of the Labour Party after the general election of May 2015, particularly after Jeremy Corbyn was officially nominated as a candidate for the leadership in June of that year. Using both British Election Study and Party Members Project data, we explain the surge by focussing on the attitudinal, ideological and demographic characteristics of the members themselves. Findings suggest that, along with support for the leader and yearning for a new style of politics, feelings of relative deprivation played a significant part: many ‘left-behind’ voters (some well-educated, some less so) joined Labour for the first time when a candidate with a clearly radical profile appeared on the leadership ballot. Anti-capitalist and left-wing values mattered too, particularly for those former members who decided to return to the party.

Ethnic minority voters in the UK 2015 general election: A breakthrough for the Conservative party?

It was widely reported that the 2015 UK general election represented a breakthrough election for the Conservative party among ethnic minority voters – specifically that their vote share among minorities increased, and overtook that of Labour for the first time among some groups. I show that analysis using more representative data yields markedly different results. Looking at (i) party preference from 2010 to 2015, and (ii) reported vote shares from a nationally representative probability survey, I show that the Conservatives increased their support among Hindus - but the Labour party gained in support elsewhere. This is due to movement away from the Liberal Democrats, 2010 minority supporters of the Liberal Democrats moved to supporting Labour rather than the Conservatives in 2015 at a ratio of 2:1. There is also considerable individual-level volatility in party support among ethnic minorities, which is masked by a high level of stability at the aggregate level.

A Close-run Thing? Accounting for Changing Overall Turnout in UK General Elections

ABSTRACTTurnout at UK General Elections has remained stubbornly below post-war levels in the new millennium. Between 1950 and 1997, official turnout averaged 76% and never fell below 71% (in 1997); since 2001 average turnout has been 12 percentage points lower, at 64%. We investigate several possible explanations for that decline: the lack of competitiveness in recent contests; an increase in ideological similarity between the major parties; and partisan dealignment. Although electoral competitiveness affects turnout, and in the expected directions, it cannot readily account for the sudden drop in participation after 2000. But there is evidence that aggregate levels of partisanship are important: the unusually low turnout levels since 2000 are associated with unusually low levels of partisanship, and there are signs of a ‘threshold effect’.

The personality of populists: How the Big Five traits relate to populist attitudes

Recent years have witnessed striking successes of populist movements. Yet, while populism on the supply side is fairly well studied, we know surprisingly little about individuals who hold populist views. This article attempts to shed light on how populist attitudes are shaped on the demand side by taking a person's personality structure into account. Drawing on the framework of the Big Five personality traits, we first propose relationships between each trait and populist attitudes. Second, we suggest a more dynamic perspective by considering which personality trait might make a person more susceptible to adopting populist views throughout an election campaign, particularly if she identifies with a populist party. We test the relationships in two distinct contexts making use of the internet panel of the 2015 British Election Study and the campaign panel of the 2017 German Longitudinal Election Study. Regression results show that some traits are significantly associated with populist attitudes, but relationships differ between countries. Moreover, change in populist attitudes appears to be largely independent from personality traits and their interaction with being close to populist parties. The findings not only contribute to our understanding of populism among voters, but also enrich the debate on political implications of personality.

“An Australian-style points system”: Individualizing immigration in radical right discourse in the 2015 U.K. General election campaign.

Analyses of racist discourse have often involved data from contexts concerning issues of human mobility. A great deal of this literature points to the extent to which people draw on the tropes of liberalism in order to justify social exclusion, and in particular to warrant negative evaluations of outgroups. Using media data from political debates involving the radical right-wing United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in the UK General Election campaign of 2015, the present paper highlights a different rhetorical strategy by which exclusion can be warranted by speakers arguing for a reduction in immigration. This novel strategy explicitly avoids any negative characterisation of outgroups, and instead advocates the individualization of immigration decisions. This is exemplified in UKIP’s policy of basing the UK’s approach to immigration on an ‘Australian style points-based system’. This was invoked by UKIP representatives in the debates as a straightforward ‘off-the-shelf’ system that would enable the UK to ‘take back control’ of immigration, whilst ensuring that immigration decisions were based on individual merit rather than on group membership. As such, the points system could also be invoked specifically to anticipate and counter accusations of racism and/or xenophobia. The findings are discussed in relation to the tacit ideological assumptions underpinning UKIP’s policy, specifically around psychologisation, the reliance on an acultural version of Australia, and the tacit use of categorical accounting.

'Gender, Power and Political Speech: Woman and Language in the 2015 UK General Election'. By Deborah Cameron and Sylvia Shaw

Gender, Power and Political Speech: Woman and Language in the 2015 UK General Election By Deborah Cameron and Sylvia Shaw (2016) Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 140pp.

Government Partisanship and Electoral Accountability: The Effect of Perceived Employment Situation on Partisan Vote Switching

What are the electoral impacts of perceptions of unemployment under different partisan persuasions of the government? Neither the literature on retrospective economic voting nor partisan voting has provided a compelling answer to this question. This paper addresses this puzzle by analyzing panel surveys and leveraging differences in government partisanship in two consecutive elections. I argue that negative evaluations of the employment situation induce voter transition to support a left-wing party under a right-wing government, but that such voter perceptions do not affect vote choice under a left-wing government. An analysis of a voter transition, using British Election Panel Study 1992–1997 and 1997–2001, reveals findings that support my argument. My argument suggests conditional partisan voting effects. Essentially, the effect of economic issues on vote choice is conditional on issue salience and which party “owns” the issue, namely, the varying levels of issue salience related to government partisanship.

The politics of Generation Grime

In the 2017 UK general election, Grime artists (musicians representing the experience of a young black dispossessed city working class) came out in support of the Labour Party’s radical leader Jeremy Corbyn. The author, drawing on in-depth interviews with Grime experts and leftwing activists and an examination of social media, explains that endorsement in terms of the concept of ‘embedded ethics’ which allows Grime artists to present themselves as authentic social commentators on intersecting forms of poverty, state racism and social exclusion. Using the work of cultural theorists Stuart Hall and Paul Gilroy, she argues that Grime is more than a music genre and more a way of life giving cultural meaning – explaining the mobilisations for both the election and, later, over the Grenfell fire. But the piece asks whether, at a time of blatant neoliberalism and harsh austerity, there is a need now to insert a more direct discussion of class into the cultural theory debate.

Politics as usual? Assessing the extent and content of candidate-level online campaigning at the 2015 UK general election

ABSTRACTThere has been much work done investigating the adoption of online campaigns in UK general election campaigns. Although some research has focussed on the candidate-level (Gibson, R., W. Lusoli, and S. Ward. 2008. “Nationalizing and Normalizing the Local? A Comparative Analysis of Online Candidate Campaigning in Australia and Britain.” Journal of Information Technology and Politics 4: 15–30; Lee, B. 2014. “Window Dressing 2.0: Constituency-level Web Campaigns in the 2010 UK General Election.” Politics 34 (1): 45–57; Southern, R. 2015. “Is Web 2.0 Providing a Voice for Outsiders? A Comparison of Personal Web Site and Social Media Use by Candidates at the 2010 UK General Election.” Journal of Information Technology & Politics 12 (1): 1–17), this is an under-researched area. This is despite early web-campaign scholars (Margolis, M., and D. Resnick. 2000. Politics as Usual: The Cyberspace Revolution. Sage) maintaining that e-campaigning could provide the most important advantages to campaigns at the candidate level. In light of this, the paper aims to provide the most comprehensive study of candidate-level online campaigning carried out in the UK to date. This paper employs original data, measuring website and social media use by candidates during the 2015 UK general election campaign. These data allow for a detailed explanation of the normalization thesis, one of the leading theories in the field of e-campaigns. The findings here are significant as there are several instances where normalization does not hold, suggesting that online tools are contributing to campaign change. Green Party candidates subverted normalization to a significant degree, particularly on social media. Assessing the campaign content, a quarter of candidates adopted more than one interactive feature on their website and furthermore, interactive use of Twitter was the most common type of Twitter use.

‘For the Many, Not the Few’: Strategising the Campaign Trail at the 2017 UK General Election

AbstractDuring the 2017 general election campaign, the Conservative and Labour leaders toured the country. While Theresa May operated a conventional approach, encapsulated by limited interactions with the public, Jeremy Corbyn participated in public rallies and appeared at music festivals. This article examines the strategic decisions underpinning leader visits in the 2017 campaign trail. It finds that May and Corbyn’s electoral strategies had more in common than at first sight. The article adds to existing studies by using new interview data from local party campaigners to understand visit organisation and impact on the local campaign. It also makes an important step towards unpicking the causal mechanism through which these visits may affect voter behaviour.

Using public opinion to serve journalistic narratives: Rethinking vox pops and live two-way reporting in five UK election campaigns (2009-2017).

The news media are often accused of reporting politics in a too narrow and consensual way, excluding certain perspectives and issues that might better reflect the public’s agenda. This study lends weight to this argument by not only demonstrating the party political focus of UK election coverage but also in the misleading way public opinion was, at times, represented. Analysing 6647 items and/or stories in the largest ever content analysis study of 4613 sources across five first- and second-order election campaigns in the United Kingdom, it comprehensively tracks how citizens and journalists appear in television news, as well as developing a finely grained, qualitative assessment of how public opinion was represented during the 2017 election campaign. Overall, the study found that political parties received the most amount of airtime, but in some election campaigns members of the public appeared in coverage more often than politicians. However, they were mostly granted limited airtime to articulate their views in vox pops. During the 2017 election campaign, the study found the editorial construction of public opinion in vox pops and live journalistic two-ways was shaped by a relatively narrow set of assumptions made by political journalists about the public’s ideological views rather than consulting more objective measures of public opinion. So, for example, voters were portrayed as favouring more right- than left-wing policies despite evidence to the contrary. The use of citizens as sources is theorised as serving the pre-conceived narratives of journalists rather than reflecting a representative picture of public opinion. The study reinforces and advances academic debates about journalists and citizen-source interactions. More accurately engaging with people’s concerns, it is concluded, will help move broadcasters beyond the narrow set of assumptions that typically serve their narratives of political coverage.

Does Mode Matter? Measuring the Effects of Different Types of Online Political Engagement on Offline Participation

Recent studies have shown that online participation is a multi-dimensional phenomenon that replicates and extends existing forms of political engagement. What is less clear is the mobilizing potential of these different types of activity and particularly whether they trigger offline participation. This paper addresses these questions in an analysis of citizens online and offline behaviour in the context of a UK General Election. Specifically we identify three different modes of online engagement in the campaign, profile the individuals most likely to engage in them, and examine whether they affected individuals’ likelihood of voting. Our findings show that while newer social media based ‘e-expressive’ activities are most likely to appeal to those individuals who are not already engaged in politics they do not necessarily increase the likelihood of voting. By contrast higher consumption of news and information online during an election does appear to significantly boost individuals’ chances of turning out to vote.

Increasing Localism in Elected Politicians?

Comparing patterns of regional relationships between politicians’ constituencies and their place of birth for the European and UK parliamentary elections of 2009/10 and 2014/15 suggests increasing localism that will continue as older representatives are replaced by the younger generation. Such nationalism and regionalism within England could change UK political dynamics.

Multi-dimensional policy preferences in the 2015 British general election: A conjoint analysis

This research explores voter preferences in the multi-dimensional policy space of the 2015 UK general election, as well as the influence of those preferences on vote choice. In our original pre-election survey, we apply a conjoint experimental design where we use actual party manifestos to examine voters' policy preferences across five main policy domains. This design allows us to both identify voters' sincere preferences, as estimated by their responses to hypothetical policy packages, and to reveal the influence of these preferences on voter support in the actual election. Our analysis reveals a considerable level of congruence between voters' underlying policy preferences and their vote choice in the 2015 election. Our results also speak to the previous literature on policy preferences and vote choice by demonstrating that voters not only weigh the importance of particular policy domains differently, but also have clear preferences regarding specific policy positions in a given domain, which eventually influence their support for a party in the election.