Oh Jeremy Corbyn! Why did Labour Party membership soar after the 2015 general election?

Paul Whiteley,Monica Poletti,Tim Bale,Paul Webb

doi:10.1177/1369148118815408

Abstract

This article investigates the remarkable surge in individual membership of the Labour Party after the general election of May 2015, particularly after Jeremy Corbyn was officially nominated as a candidate for the leadership in June of that year. Using both British Election Study and Party Members Project data, we explain the surge by focussing on the attitudinal, ideological and demographic characteristics of the members themselves. Findings suggest that, along with support for the leader and yearning for a new style of politics, feelings of relative deprivation played a significant part: many ‘left-behind’ voters (some well-educated, some less so) joined Labour for the first time when a candidate with a clearly radical profile appeared on the leadership ballot. Anti-capitalist and left-wing values mattered too, particularly for those former members who decided to return to the party.

Highlights

Researchers have been documenting the decline of grassroots political parties across advanced democracies for nearly three decades (Dalton, 2005; Heidar, 2006; Katz et al, 1992; Mair, 1994; Mair and Van Biezen, 2001; Scarrow, 2000; Van Biezen et al, 2012)
We start by exploring the relationship between the type of party member in the 2016 survey and their social background characteristics, looking for evidence of ‘relative deprivation’ impacting first-time joiners
Using the Party Members Project (PMP) data, we explain support for Jeremy Corbyn by looking at the relationship between the predictors specified in H7 and H8 and three different indicators of leadership support, namely, (1) how important belief in the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn was for members’ decisions to join the party, (2) how likely they were to vote for Jeremy Corbyn if another Labour MP challenged him for the leadership and (3) how likely they thought it was that Labour would win the general election if Corbyn were to remain leader

Summary

Introduction

Researchers have been documenting the decline of grassroots political parties across advanced democracies for nearly three decades (Dalton, 2005; Heidar, 2006; Katz et al, 1992; Mair, 1994; Mair and Van Biezen, 2001; Scarrow, 2000; Van Biezen et al, 2012). UKIP members, for instance, are on the right of British politics but are strongly anti-capitalist in their beliefs where their focus is on corporate capitalism (see Clarke et al, 2017: 101–102) This logic suggests a third hypothesis: H3: People who joined the Labour Party for the first time after the 2015 election were more likely to be influenced by anti-capitalist values than were returning and existing members. Relative deprivation triggered political action among people with positive attitudes to Jeremy Corbyn, who think of themselves as left wing and who feel disillusioned with politics as usual These factors all working together helped to trigger changes in party membership during this period.

Results

Discussion and conclusion