Brevis Blooms Research Articles

An early-warning forecast model for red tide (Karenia brevis) blooms on the southwest coast of Florida

Karenia brevis blooms occur nearly annually along the southwest coast of Florida, and effective mitigation of ecological, public health, and economic impacts requires reliable real-time forecasting. We present two boosted random forest models that predict the weekly maximum K. brevis abundance category across the Greater Charlotte Harbor estuaries over one-week and four-week forecast horizons. The feature set was restricted to data available in near-real time, consistent with adoption of the models as decision-support tools. Features include current and lagged K. brevis abundance statistics, Loop Current position, sea surface temperature, sea level, and riverine discharges and nitrogen concentrations. During cross-validation, the one-week and four-week forecasts exhibited 73 % and 84 % accuracy, respectively, during the 2010–2023 study period. In addition, we assessed the models’ reliability in forecasting the onset of 10 bloom events on time or in advance; the one-week and four-week models anticipated the onset eight times and five times, respectively.

Temperature-Dependent Mixotrophy in Natural Populations of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Karenia brevis

Previous studies have revealed that mixotrophs can become more heterotrophic as the temperature rises, although these studies were primarily conducted under laboratory conditions with temperature-acclimated grazers. This study investigated the short-term thermal regulation of grazing and photosynthetic performance, measured in terms of the maximum relative electron transport rate (rETRmax), of natural Karenia brevis populations on cultured Synechococcus. Bloom waters were collected in Sarasota, Florida, during the fall of 2022. Synechococcus were inoculated into K. brevis bloom waters in varying ratios and incubated at an ambient temperature and an ambient temperature ±5 °C (19, 24, and 29 °C). In general, the grazing coefficient, clearance, and ingestion rates were higher in warmer waters, although ingestion rates were significantly regulated by the prey-to-grazer ratios and, to a lesser degree, by temperatures (22 to 204 Synechococcus K. brevis−1 d−1). Overall, the rETRmax of Synechococcus controls generally increased over time with a more substantial increase at warmer temperatures, but, in the presence of grazers, the rETRmax of Synechococcus did not increase, and, remarkably, even decreased in some cases. These findings suggest that grazing on Synechococcus could directly regulate Synechococcus concentrations and indirectly reduce the photosynthetic performance of prey. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the thermal regulation of grazing and photosynthetic performance can occur on a short-term basis.

Mitigation of Karenia brevis Cells and Brevetoxins Using Curcumin, a Natural Supplement

Curcumin, a natural plant product, was investigated as a mitigation tool against Karenia brevis, the toxic dinoflagellate responsible for Florida red tides. A series of laboratory bench-top studies were conducted with additions of 0.1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 mg/L curcumin to K. brevis at an average of 1.0 × 106 cells/L to determine the efficacy of curcumin against K. brevis cells and brevetoxins and to optimize treatment dosage. Treatment with 5 mg/L of curcumin reduced K. brevis cell abundance by 89% and total brevetoxins by 60% within 24 h. Lower concentrations of curcumin (0.1–3 mg/L) exhibited between a 2 and 45% reduction in K. brevis and a reduction in brevetoxins of between 2 and 44% within 24 h. At the highest curcumin doses, 30 and 40 mg/L, a 100% reduction in cell abundance was observed by 6 h, with reduction in total brevetoxins by at least 64% in 48 h. These results suggest that curcumin, used alone or potentially in combination with other technologies, is a promising K. brevis bloom mitigation option.

Fusing remote sensing data with spatiotemporal in situ samples for red tide (Karenia brevis) detection.

We present a novel method for detecting red tide (Karenia brevis) blooms off the west coast of Florida, driven by a neural network classifier that combines remote sensing data with spatiotemporally distributed in situ sample data. The network detects blooms over a 1-km grid, using seven ocean color features from the MODIS-Aqua satellite platform (2002-2021) and in situ sample data collected by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and its partners. Model performance was demonstrably enhanced by two key innovations: depth normalization of satellite features and encoding of an in situ feature. The satellite features were normalized to adjust for depth-dependent bottom reflection effects in shallow coastal waters. The in situ data were used to engineer a feature that contextualizes recent nearby ground truth of K. brevis concentrations through a K-nearest neighbor spatiotemporal proximity weighting scheme. A rigorous experimental comparison revealed that our model outperforms existing remote detection methods presented in the literature and applied in practice. This classifier has strong potential to be operationalized to support more efficient monitoring and mitigation of future blooms, more accurate communication about their spatial extent and distribution, and a deeper scientific understanding of bloom dynamics, transport, drivers, and impacts in the region. This approach also has the potential to be adapted for the detection of other algal blooms in coastal waters. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1432-1446. © 2024 SETAC.

Mesocosm study of PAC-modified clay effects on Karenia brevis cells and toxins, chemical dynamics, and benthic invertebrate physiology

Modified clay compounds are used globally as a method of controlling harmful algal blooms, and their use is currently under consideration to control Karenia brevis blooms in Florida, USA. In 1400 L mesocosm tanks, chemical dynamics and lethal and sublethal impacts of MC II, a polyaluminum chloride (PAC)-modified kaolinite clay, were evaluated over 72 h on a benthic community representative of Sarasota Bay, which included blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), sea urchin (Lytechinus variegatus), and hard clam (Mercenaria campechiensis). In this experiment, MC II was dosed at 0.2 g L-1 to treat bloom-level densities of K. brevis at 1 × 106 cells L-1. Cell removal in MC II-treated tanks was 57% after 8 h and 95% after 48 h. In the water column, brevetoxin analogs BTx-1 and BTx-2 were found to be significantly higher in untreated tanks at 24 and 48 h, while in MC II-treated tanks, BTx-3 was found to be higher at 48 h and BTx-B5 was found to be higher at 24 and 48 h. In MC II floc, we found no significant differences in BTx-1 or BTx-2 between treatments for any time point, while BTx-3 was found to be significantly higher in the MC II-treated tanks at 48 and 72 h, and BTx-B5 was higher in MC II-treated tanks at 24 and 72 h. Among various chemical dynamics observed, it was notable that dissolved phosphorus was consistently significantly lower in MC II tanks after 2 h, and that turbidity in MC II tanks returned to control levels 48 h after treatment. Dissolved inorganic carbon and total seawater alkalinity were significantly reduced in MC II tanks, and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) was significantly higher in the MC II-only treatment after 2 h. In MC II floc, particulate phosphorus was found to be significantly higher in MC II tanks after 24 h. In animals, lethal and sublethal responses to MC II-treated K. brevis did not differ from untreated K. brevis for either of our three species at any time point, suggesting MC II treatment at this dosage has negligible impacts to these species within 72 h of exposure. These results appear promising in terms of the environmental safety of MC II as a potential bloom control option, and we recommend scaling up MC II experiments to field trials in order to gain deeper understanding of MC II performance and dynamics in natural waters.

Nutrient and carbonate chemistry patterns associated with Karenia brevis blooms in three West Florida Shelf estuaries 2020-2023

Ocean acidification (OA) driven by eutrophication, riverine discharge, and other threats from local population growth that affect the inorganic carbonate system is already affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term declines in pH of ~ -0.001 pH units yr-1 have been observed in many southwest Florida estuaries over the past few decades. Coastal and estuarine waters of southwest Florida experience high biomass harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis nearly every year; and these blooms have the potential to impact and be impacted by seasonal to interannual patterns of carbonate chemistry. Sampling was conducted seasonally along three estuarine transects (Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Caloosahatchee River) between May 2020 and May 2023 to obtain baseline measurements of carbonate chemistry prior to, during, and following K. brevis blooms. Conductivity, temperature and depth data and discrete water samples for K. brevis cell abundance, nutrients, and carbonate chemistry (total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC), pCO2, and pHT were evaluated to identify seasonal patterns and linkages among carbonate system variables, nutrients, and K. brevis blooms. Karenia brevis blooms were observed during six samplings, and highest pCO2 and lowest pHT was observed either during or after blooms in all three estuaries. Highest average pH and lowest pCO2 were observed in Tampa Bay. In all three estuaries, average DIC and pHT were higher and pCO2 was lower during dry seasons than wet seasons. There was strong influence of net community calcification (NCC) and net community production (NCP) on the carbonate system; and NCC : NCP ratios in Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River were 0.83, 0.93, and 1.02, respectively. Linear relationships between salinity and dissolved ammonium, phosphate, and nitrate indicate strong influence of freshwater inflow from river input and discharge events on nutrient concentrations. This study is a first step towards connecting observations of high biomass blooms like those caused by K. brevis and alterations of carbonate chemistry in Southwest Florida. Our study demonstrates the need for integrated monitoring to improve understanding of interactions among the carbonate system, HABs, water quality, and acidification over local to regional spatial scales and event to decadal time scales.

Detection of Karenia brevis red tides on the West Florida Shelf using VIIRS observations: Accounting for spatial coherence with artificial intelligence

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (K. brevis) occur annually on the West Florida Shelf (WFS). Detection of these blooms using satellite observations often suffers from two problems: lack of accurate algorithms to identify phytoplankton blooms in optically complex waters and patchiness (i.e., heterogeneity) of K. brevis during blooms. Here, using data collected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) between 2017 and 2019, we develop a practical approach to overcome these difficulties despite the lack of a chlorophyll-a fluorescence band on VIIRS. The approach is based on artificial intelligence (specifically, a deep-learning (DL) convolutional neural network model), which uses spatial coherence of bloom patches to account for the patchiness of K. brevis concentrations. After proper training, the overall performance (i.e., F1 score) of the deep learning model is 89%. Extracted K. brevis patches were consistent with those derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, which has a fluorescence band. Furthermore, the wider swath of VIIRS over MODIS (3040-km versus 2330-km) led to more valid observations of bloom extent, enabling improved near-real-time applications. The results not only demonstrate the capacity of VIIRS in HABs monitoring, but also show the value of the DL model in extracting K. brevis bloom patches for both near real-time applications and retrospective analysis.

MurKy waters: Modeling the succession from r to K strategists (diatoms to dinoflagellates) following a nutrient release from a mining facility in Florida

AbstractThe impacts of pulsed nutrient injections or extreme runoff events on marine ecosystems are far less studied than those associated with long‐term eutrophication, particularly in regard to mechanisms regulating the response of plankton community structure. Over 800 million liters of nutrient‐rich water from a fertilizer mine were discharged over a 2‐week period into Tampa Bay, Florida, in 2021, providing a unique opportunity to document the plankton response. A 3D‐coupled hydrodynamic biogeochemical model was developed to investigate this response and to understand the observed succession of a large, short diatom bloom followed by a secondary Karenia brevis bloom that lasted through the summer. The model reproduced the observed changes in nutrient concentration, total chlorophyll a, and diatom and K. brevis biomass in Tampa Bay. With a faster growth rate and spring temperature close to the optimal window of growth, diatoms had an initial competitive advantage, with 2/3 of the nutrient uptake due to ammonium and 1/3 due to nitrate. However, exhaustion of external nutrients led to the rapid decline of the diatom bloom, and the associated particular organic nitrogen sank onto the bay sediment. Enhanced sediment release of ammonium during the weeks following, and summer remineralization of dissolved organic nitrogen provided sufficient regenerated nitrogen to support slow‐growing K. brevis that could capitalize on low nutrient conditions. Modeling analysis largely confirmed Margalef's conceptual model of r to K‐selected species succession and provided additional insights into nutrient cycling supporting the initial diatom bloom and the subsequent bloom of a slow‐growing harmful algal species.

Exposure of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to modified clay treatment of Karenia brevis as a bloom control strategy

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic marine dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, commonly called red tides, are an ongoing threat to human health and marine ecosystems in Florida. Clay flocculation is a standard control strategy for marine HABs in China and Korea and is currently being assessed for use in the United States. We evaluated the effects of a PAC-modified clay called Modified Clay II on mortality, eyestalk reflexes, and righting reflexes of 48 adult blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus). Crabs were exposed to clay alone (0.5 g L − 1), untreated K. brevis (1 × 106 cells L − 1), or a combination of K. brevis and clay for eight days. Clay treatment reduced cell concentrations in the water column by 95% after 24 h. We detected no significant differences in mortality, righting reflexes, or eyestalk reflexes between treatments. Our results indicate that the clay alone is not harmful to adult crabs at typical treatment concentrations within the measured time frame, and that treatment of K. brevis with this clay appears to have a negligible impact on crab mortality and the reflex variables we measured. These results suggest that Modified Clay II may be a viable option to treat K. brevis blooms without impacting adult blue crab populations. Additional controlled experiments and field tests are needed to further evaluate the impact of clay on natural benthic communities.

Molecular characterization of dissolved organic matter in urban stormwater pond and municipal wastewater discharges transformed by the Florida red tide dinoflagellate Karenia brevis

Karenia brevis blooms occur almost annually in southwest Florida, imposing significant ecological and human health impacts. Currently, 13 nutrient sources have been identified supporting blooms, including nearshore anthropogenic inputs such as stormwater and wastewater outflows. A 21-day bioassay was performed, where K. brevis cultures were inoculated with water sourced from three stormwater ponds along an age gradient (14, 18, and 34 yrs.) and one municipal wastewater effluent sample, with the aim of identifying biomolecular classes and transformations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) compounds used by K. brevis. All sample types supported K. brevis growth and showed compositional changes in their respective DOM pools. Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) catalogued the molecular composition of DOM and identified specific compound classes that were biodegraded. Results showed that K. brevis utilized species across a wide range of compositions that correspond to amino sugars, humic, and lignin-like biomolecular classes. The municipal wastewater and the youngest stormwater pond (SWP 14) effluent contained the largest pools of labile DOM compounds which were bioavailable to K. brevis, which indicates younger stormwater pond effluents may be as ecologically important as wastewater effluents to blooms. Conversely, generation of DOM compounds of greater complexity and a wide range of aromaticity was observed with the older (SWP 18 and SWP 34) stormwater pond treatments. These data confirm the potential for stormwater ponds and/or wastewater to contribute nutrients which can potentially support K. brevis blooms, revealing the need for improved nutrient retention strategies to protect coastal waters from the potential ill effects of urban effluent.

Modeling the spatio-temporal distribution of Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico

Background: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis impact the overall ecosystem health. Methods: K. brevis cell counts were extracted from Harmful Algal BloomS Observing System (HABSOS) in situ data and matched with 0.25º resolution environmental information from the Copernicus database to generate spatio-temporal maps of HABs in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) between 2010 and 2020. The data was used to analyze the relationship between spatial and temporal variability in the presence/absence of K. brevis blooms (≥100,000 cells/L) and biotic and abiotic variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). Results: The variability of blooms was strongly linked to geographic location (latitude and salinity), and temporal variables (month and year). A higher probability of K. brevis blooms presence was predicted in areas with negative sea surface height (SSH) values, silicate concentration (0, 30-35 mmol. m-3), sea surface temperature of 22-28 oC, and water currents moving south-westward (225º). The smooth effect of each environmental variable shows a bimodal pattern common in semi-enclosed basins such as GoM. The spatial predictions from the model identified an important permanent area in (1) Southwest Florida (25.8-27.4o latitude), and four seasonally important areas, (2) North Central Florida (3) Central West Florida, (4) Alabama on Gulf Shores and (5) Mississippi with higher bloom probabilities during the fall to winter season (November-January). Results also suggest that HABs can extend until ≥ 300 km offshore; starting to form in March and reaching a peak in September, and were swept to the coastal area during fall and winter. This suggests the role of upwelling and water circulation in GoM for the accumulation of cells and HABs. Information on the spatio-temporal dynamics of K. brevis blooms and understanding the environmental drivers are crucial to support more holistic spatial management to decrease K. brevis blooms incidence in bodies of water.

In situ digital holographic microscopy for rapid detection and monitoring of the harmful dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis

Karenia brevis blooms, also known as red tide, are a recurring problem in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. These blooms have the capacity to inflict substantial damage to human and animal health as well as local economies. Thus, monitoring and detection of K. brevis blooms at all life stages and cell concentrations is essential for ensuring public safety. Current K. brevis monitoring methods have several limitations, including size resolution limits and concentration ranges, limited capacity for spatial and temporal profiling, and/or small sample volume processing. Here, a novel monitoring method wherein an autonomous digital holographic imaging microscope (AUTOHOLO), that overcomes these limitations and can characterize K. brevis concentrations in situ, is presented. Using the AUTOHOLO, in situ field measurements were conducted in the coastal Gulf of Mexico during an active K. brevis bloom over the 2020–21 winter season. Surface and sub-surface water samples collected during these field studies were also analyzed in the lab using benchtop holographic imaging and flow cytometry for validation. A convolutional neural network was trained for automated classification of K. brevis at all concentration ranges. The network was validated with manual counts and flow cytometry, yielding a 90% accuracy across diverse datasets with varying K. brevis concentrations. The usefulness of pairing the AUTOHOLO with a towing system was also demonstrated for characterizing particle abundance over large spatial distances, which could potentially facilitate characterization of spatial distributions of K. brevis during bloom events. Future applications of the AUTOHOLO can include integration into existing HAB monitoring networks to enhance detection capabilities for K. brevis in aquatic environments around the world.

A Succession of diatom and Karenia brevis blooms on the West Florida Shelf following a chemical spill from a mining facility

A Succession of diatom and Karenia brevis blooms on the West Florida Shelf following a chemical spill from a mining facility

Effects of Salinity on Clay Flocculation in the Context of Mitigating Karenia Brevis Blooms in the Tampa Bay

Objective: Tampa Bay Area is an estuary and thus has varying levels of salinity, so it has become imperative to determine whether or not the leading combat strategy (clay flocculation) to HABs is effective under these differing conditions. Method: an experiment was conducted that measured the settling rates of Kaolin clay at varying levels of salinity (0, 17.5, 30, and 45 Parts Per Thousand) within the range of Karenia Brevis. Results: There is no statistically significant difference between the settling rates of Kaolin clay within the range of tolerance of K. Brevis, and therefore can be used to combat K. Brevis blooms in Tampa Bay regardless of salinity.

An improved reverse flow injection analysis (rFIA) technique for determination of nanomolar concentrations of ammonium in natural waters with automatic background fluorescence detection: Ammonification during a Karenia brevis bloom in Tampa Bay

Ammonium is the most energetically favorable form of inorganic nitrogen that phytoplankton can take up, and its availability often limits phytoplankton biomass. Recently, the majority of methods for quantification of ammonium at nanomolar concentrations have used the reaction between ammonium and o-phthaldialdehyde (OPA). Two different approaches have been employed. One involves gas diffusion of ammonia across a membrane. The other entails a more direct approach and utilizes sulfite as a reducing agent to form a fluorescent product. A benefit of the separation technique is that natural fluorescence of the samples does not yield a false positive signal, however membrane failure and clogging are challenging analytical problems. The direct reaction between the analyte and OPA, although devoid of problems associated with membranes, requires a correction for background fluorescence. This work presents the development of a reverse flow injection analysis (rFIA) method with automatic background fluorescence correction and a low detection limit, along with its application to measure underway ammonium concentrations in Tampa Bay during a bloom of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis with concurrent fish kills in June of 2021. During field testing elevated concentrations of ammonium were found to coincide with the largest number of observed floating dead fish and lethal K. brevis concentrations. The method employs a sulfite-formaldehyde reagent mixed with the sample into which an OPA reagent is injected and heated to activate fluorescence. Fluorescence of the sample is measured before the injection of OPA and at the peak of OPA injection, allowing for differentiation of the background fluorescence from the signal proportional to analyte. The detection limit and the limit of quantitation for this technique are 2.3 nM and 7.5 nM, respectively, and the coefficient of variation is 0.6% for replicate deionized water blanks (N = 10). Advantages of this method compared to techniques capable of both nanomolar detection of ammonium and improved accuracy via background fluorescence correction include a greater sample throughput, an increase in reported useful reagent lifetime, and the ability to quantify ammonium in coastal waters.

Karenia brevis bloom patterns on the west Florida shelf between 2003 and 2019: Integration of field and satellite observations

Harmful algal blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis occur almost annually on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To date, however, comprehensive assessments of K. brevis bloom spatial extent and temporal occurrence are lacking due to limitations in the two primary bloom monitoring techniques: microscopy evaluation of field-collected water samples and satellite remote sensing of ocean color. This is despite community efforts in expanding sampling coverage statewide and developing remote sensing algorithms to interpret color changes of surface waters. In this work, an approach is developed to combine the strengths of both techniques to estimate mean bloom occurrence frequency and bloom intensity as well as bloom extent at weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, and annual intervals between 2003 and 2019. Here, due to technical constraints on ocean color remote sensing, a bloom is defined as waters with K. brevis concentrations greater than 1.5 × 105 cells L−1. While microscopy examination of surface water samples provides K. brevis cell concentrations to help delineate bloom locations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on Aqua (MODIS/A) images, the imagery provides far more synoptic and frequent observations to make the bloom characterization statistically meaningful. Such derived bloom statistics often show bloom patterns that are not always known previously or at the time of the event, and in some years, they also differ from those determined from microscopic taxonomy data alone. For example, in terms of bloom size, two major bloom periods are observed in 2005 – 2007 and 2014 – 2018, respectively, when annual cumulative bloom size exceeded ∼50,000 km2. While preliminary in nature, the approach and results from this work may represent a first step to integrate water sample analysis and satellite remote sensing towards an improved characterization of K. brevis blooms on the WFS.

Exposure-response relationship between K. brevis blooms and reporting of upper respiratory and neurotoxin-associated symptoms

In southwest Florida, Karenia brevis (K. brevis) blooms occur frequently, can be very intense and persist over several years. Individuals living in coastal communities around the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable to brevetoxins released by K. brevis in seawater and carried inland within marine aerosol. Exposure to K. brevis occurs during residential, recreational, and occupational activities and has been associated with upper respiratory tract (URT) symptoms in healthy and medically vulnerable individuals. Additionally, ingestion of brevetoxin-contaminated seafood causes neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP), and severe headaches prompting emergency department visits which occur in excess during K. brevis blooms. The current study examined a dose-response relationship between K. brevis in coastal waters and URT and NSP-like symptoms and headaches among southwest Florida residents. Data on past medical history (PMH) and medical symptoms were collected from the participants (n = 258) in five southwest Florida counties between June 2019 to August 2021. A dose-response relationship was observed between K. brevis blooms and reporting of URT and NSP-like symptoms and headaches. Reporting of NSP-like symptoms was higher among participants with a PMH of migraines, chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and mild memory loss, while the association of headaches with K. brevis blooms was accentuated among individuals with a PMH of migraines. These results suggest further investigations into the threshold of aerosolized brevetoxin dose required to elicit URT, headaches and/or NSP-like symptoms. These symptoms ultimately cause significant public health safety concerns, primarily among vulnerable populations with preexisting neurological conditions.

The Effects of the Harmful Algal Bloom Species Karenia brevis on Survival of Red Porgy (Pagrus pagrus) Larvae.

The harmful algal bloom species, Karenia brevis, forms annual, often intense blooms in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly along the west Florida shelf. Though the ability of K. brevis blooms to cause mass mortalities in juvenile fish are well documented, the direct effect of bloom concentrations on larval fish has not been studied extensively. To better understand the potential effect of K. brevis on larval fish survival, laboratory spawned red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) larvae from 4–26 days post-hatch were exposed to concentrations of K. brevis observed in the field for either 24 or 48 h. This species is representative of fish which spawn in regions of the Gulf of Mexico and whose larvae are epipelagic and may encounter K. brevis blooms. In this study, three different K. brevis strains varying in the amount of brevetoxin produced were tested. Larval survivorship was found to be inversely proportional to the amount of brevetoxin produced by each strain. The EC50 value from the combined 24 h experiments was ~163,000 K. brevis cells L−1, which corresponds to cell concentrations found in moderately dense blooms. Larval mortality also increased substantially in the 48 h versus 24 h exposure treatments. These findings indicate K. brevis blooms have the potential to contribute to natural mortality of fish larvae and further reduce inter-annual recruitment of fishery species whose stocks in the Gulf of Mexico may already be depleted.

The influence of Lake Okeechobee discharges on Karenia brevis blooms and the effects on wildlife along the central west coast of Florida

Blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (K. brevis) are a common occurrence in the Gulf of Mexico, especially along Florida's coast. The blooms produce brevetoxins, potent neurotoxins that are associated with mortalities of marine wildlife. In recent years, K. brevis blooms seem to have become more frequent and intense. The cause of these suspected increases is highly debated, with one suggested explanation being anthropogenic eutrophication. Patient records from the Clinic for the Rehabilitation of Wildlife (CROW) on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA, and K. brevis cell count samples from the west coast of Florida were used to assess trends in red tides and affected wildlife. Flow data from the Okeechobee waterway was used to investigate if discharges from Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee Estuary, where eutrophication is present, influence red tides along Florida's central west coast. Overall, K. brevis blooms show trends of increasing intensity and duration along Florida's coast between 1954 and 2020 (latest data available). This means the amount of wildlife affected will likely increase in the future, as a linear relationship was found between the number of admissions to CROW and K. brevis densities. Furthermore, water discharges from the Okeechobee waterway (including Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee Estuary) into the Gulf of Mexico were significantly correlated with K. brevis densities, which suggests that anthropogenic pollution might play a role in the observed increases. Clear correlations were found between K. brevis densities and brevetoxicosis patient numbers admitted, and this was strongest with overall admissions lagging 23 days behind cell counts. This further confirms brevetoxins as the likely cause of their morbidity and supports previous research on brevetoxin retention in the environment. Different species groups had significant correlations with K. brevis cell counts, double-crested cormorants showing the strongest link, and there were significant differences between these groups in lag times. The differences are likely due to their distinct foraging behaviours or susceptibilities to brevetoxins. These findings can help predict future trends in red tides and can guide further research on the effects of discharges on K. brevis blooms.

Earth system models for regional environmental management of red tide: Prospects and limitations of current generation models and next generation development.

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as a unique research infrastructure for quality climate services, yet their application for environmental management at regional scale has not yet been fully explored. The unprecedented resolution and model fidelity of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, especially of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) focusing on regional phenomena, offer opportunities for such applications. This article presents the first venture into using the HighResMIP simulations to tackle a regional environmental issue, the Florida Red Tide. This is a harmful algae bloom caused by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single-celled microscopic protist. We use CMIP6 historical simulations to establish a causal agreement between the position of Loop Current, a warm ocean current that moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and the occurrence of K. brevis blooms on the Western Florida shelf. Results show that the high-resolution ESMs are capable of simulating the phenomena of interest (i.e., Loop Current) at the regional spatial scale with generally adequate data-model agreement in the context of the relation between Loop Current and red tide. We use this case study to elaborate on the prospects and limitations of using publicly available CMIP data for regional environmental management. We highlight the current gaps and the developmental needs for the next generation ESMs, and discuss the role of stakeholder participation in future ESMs development to facilitate the translation of scientific understanding to better inform decision-making of regional environmental management.