Modeling the spatio-temporal distribution of Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

Background: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis impact the overall ecosystem health. Methods: K. brevis cell counts were extracted from Harmful Algal BloomS Observing System (HABSOS) in situ data and matched with 0.25º resolution environmental information from the Copernicus database to generate spatio-temporal maps of HABs in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) between 2010 and 2020. The data was used to analyze the relationship between spatial and temporal variability in the presence/absence of K. brevis blooms (≥100,000 cells/L) and biotic and abiotic variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). Results: The variability of blooms was strongly linked to geographic location (latitude and salinity), and temporal variables (month and year). A higher probability of K. brevis blooms presence was predicted in areas with negative sea surface height (SSH) values, silicate concentration (0, 30-35 mmol. m-3), sea surface temperature of 22-28 oC, and water currents moving south-westward (225º). The smooth effect of each environmental variable shows a bimodal pattern common in semi-enclosed basins such as GoM. The spatial predictions from the model identified an important permanent area in (1) Southwest Florida (25.8-27.4o latitude), and four seasonally important areas, (2) North Central Florida (3) Central West Florida, (4) Alabama on Gulf Shores and (5) Mississippi with higher bloom probabilities during the fall to winter season (November-January). Results also suggest that HABs can extend until ≥ 300 km offshore; starting to form in March and reaching a peak in September, and were swept to the coastal area during fall and winter. This suggests the role of upwelling and water circulation in GoM for the accumulation of cells and HABs. Information on the spatio-temporal dynamics of K. brevis blooms and understanding the environmental drivers are crucial to support more holistic spatial management to decrease K. brevis blooms incidence in bodies of water.