Break-even Times Research Articles

Integrated rehabilitation of reinforced concrete buildings: Combining seismic retrofit by means of low-damage exoskeleton and energy refurbishment using multi-functional prefabricated facade

The European building stock was mostly built before the mid-20th century and is characterized by buildings with high energy demand and high seismic vulnerability. Integrated upgrading interventions are therefore urgently needed for moving towards a more resilient community. In this study, rehabilitation interventions are proposed for reinforced concrete buildings to improve their energy efficiency as well as their structural/seismic performance. An integrated refurbishment aiming at structural, architectural, and energy upgrading is targeted. Energy retrofitting with multifunctional wood-based prefabricated modular facades has been evaluated, as capable of reducing heat consumption by an average of 84 % in different climate zones. More specifically, an exoskeleton system consisting of Prestressed Laminated timber (Pres-Lam) technology is considered, which will act as a structural support-skeleton system for a high-performance “double-skin” solution composed of prefabricated panels. This solution can reduce the seismic risk class in high seismic zones. The seismic-energetic integrated intervention is developed for a representative case study building and evaluated with reference to different climates and seismic zones. Furthermore, a preliminary cost-benefit analysis of the integrated solution has been performed, showing higher benefits when compared to the sole energy retrofit. Specifically, considering the seismic retrofit interventions, the cost analysis pointed out that moving up to higher-use classes results in higher performance and costs. Nevertheless, approximately comparable breakeven times have been obtained in the same seismic region by achieving higher targets. The proposed integrated solution is a promising alternative to demolition and reconstruction, providing a deep energy renovation and structural retrofit, avoiding inevitable waste production, additional energy consumption, and C02 emissions; and allowing for a sustainable renovation of the existing building stock.

Using Real-World Data to Inform Value-Based Contracts for Cell and Gene Therapies in Medicaid.

High upfront costs and long-term benefit uncertainties of gene therapies challenge Medicaid budgets, making value-based contracts a potential solution. However, value-based contract design is hindered by cost-offset uncertainty. The aim of this study is to determine actual cost-offsets for valoctocogene roxaparvovec (hemophilia A) and etranacogene dezaparvovec (hemophilia B) from Colorado Medicaid's perspective, defining payback periods and its uncertainty from the perspective of Colorado Medicaid. This cost analysis used 2018-2022 data from the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy & Financing to determine standard-of-care costs and employed cost simulation models to estimate the cost of Medicaid if patients switched to gene therapy versus if they did not. Data encompassed medical and pharmacy expenses of Colorado Medicaid enrollees. Identified cohorts were patients aged 18+ with ICD-10-CM codes D66 (hemophilia A) and D67 (hemophilia B). Severe hemophilia A required ≥ 6 claims per year for factor therapies or emicizumab, while moderate/severe hemophilia B necessitated ≥ 4 claims per year for factor therapies. Patients were included in the cohort in the year they first met the criteria and were subsequently retained in the cohort for the duration of the observation period. Standard-of-care included factor VIII replacement therapy/emicizumab for hemophilia A and factor IX replacement therapies for hemophilia B. Simulated patients received valoctocogene roxaparvovec or etranacogene dezaparvovec. Main measures were annual standard-of-care costs, cost offset, and breakeven time when using gene therapies. Colorado Medicaid's standard-of-care costs for hemophilia A and B were $426,000 [standard deviation (SD) $353,000] and $546,000 (SD $542,000) annually, respectively. Substituting standard-of-care with gene therapy for eligible patients yielded 8-year and 6-year average breakeven times, using real-world costs, compared with 5 years with published economic evaluation costs. Substantial variability in real-world standard-of-care costs resulted in a 48% and 59% probability of breakeven within 10 years for hemophilia A and B, respectively. Altering eligibility criteria significantly influenced breakeven time. Real-world data indicates substantial uncertainty and extended payback periods for gene therapy costs. Utilizing real-world data, Medicaid can negotiate value-based contracts to manage budget fluctuations, share risk with manufacturers, and enhance patient access to innovative treatments.

Evaluating Distributed Computing Infrastructures: An Empirical Study Comparing Hadoop Deployments on Cloud and Local Systems

The popularity of distributed computing platforms (e.g., Hadoop) is largely due to their ability to address scalability issues that arise from data storage and processing limitations of standard computing systems. However, the decision to dedicate organizational resources and capital for such systems needs a careful consideration of several factors including evaluation of cloud-based distributed computing options. We propose a framework of metrics which we used to conduct an in-depth performance and cost benefit analysis of two standard Hadoop infrastructural choices, i.e., a Platform as a Service ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">PaaS</i> ) on-demand cloud setup and a local organizational setup. We evaluated the framework by means of an exploratory data analysis use-case for a large-scale graph processing research problem. Our analysis considered highly granular aspects of distributed computing performance and studied how utilization rates and infrastructure amortization times affect break-even times. We identified that virtual memory management adversely affects the performance of a cloud cluster during the reduce phase with the magnitude of degradation dependent on the type of MapReduce operation. Our study is intended not only as an evaluation of infrastructural choices but also a development of a metric framework that can serve as a baseline for researchers examining distributed infrastructures.

The albedo–climate penalty of hydropower reservoirs

Hydropower emits less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels but the lower albedo of hydropower reservoirs compared to terrestrial landscapes results in a positive radiative forcing offsetting some of the negative radiative forcing by hydroelectricity generation. The cumulative effect of this lower albedo has not been quantified. Here we show, by quantifying the difference in remotely sensed albedo between globally distributed hydropower reservoirs and their surrounding landscape, that 19 % of all investigated hydropower plants required 40 years and more for the negative radiative forcing from the fossil fuel displacement to offset the albedo effect. The length of these break-even times depends on the specific combination of climatic and environmental constraints, power plant design characteristics and country-specific electricity carbon intensities. We conclude that future hydropower plants need to minimize the albedo penalty in order to make a meaningful contribution towards limiting global warming.

Mathematical model on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry

Purpose Priorities of decarbonizing the mining sector together with an availability of cost-effective technological solutions lead renewable energy (RE) to become an attractive energy source for the mining industry. Several pilot projects are run as hybrid systems, providing additional capacity to traditional energy systems. The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical model as a decision-making tool. The decision refers to a replacement of the fossil fuel system contains by the hybrid system in the sense of no return. Design/methodology/approach Four systems are considered. System one contains only a diesel plant. System two consists of a hybrid energy system with a photovoltaic (PV) part and a genset as back-up. System three includes a conventional natural gas combined cycle (CGCC) plant. Finally, system four covers a hybrid energy system with a PV part and CGCC turbine. The mathematical model is based upon the well-known concept of levelized cost of electricity. Findings The scenarios account for the degradation rate of PV modules, the PV yields of mines in different locations and the greenhouse gas emissions impact. The results show the break-even times of each scenario and the years of no return for the four systems in each scenario. Research limitations/implications The solution of the model is performed for two case-studies. Case study 1 compares the diesel and hybrid PV-diesel systems. Case study 2 compares the CGCC and hybrid PV-natural gas systems. Practical implications This model can be generalized to all mining settings, with specific practical implications for off-grid mines. Social implications The results of this paper bring a valuable contribution to carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Originality/value The paper aims to enhance the attention of decision-makers on fossil fuel and RE technologies increase the attractiveness of RE in powering mining operations.

Investments for New Product Development: A Break-Even Time Analysis

Combining the product-process matrix and cost-volume-profit analysis, we identify a pattern of annual cash flows for new product development (NPD) and name it the New Product Investment Curve (NPIC). A sample of 411 firms provides confirming evidence for the NPIC. On average, firms needed 12 years to recover their initial and subsequent investments for NPD. The break-even time, however, exhibits significant differences across industries depending on the speed of innovation and the cost structure of each industry. Engineering managers in an industry with high R&D and high fixed costs need to prepare for longer break-even times than those in other industries. This article provides implications for the value of cooperation between engineering managers and financial managers in NPD.

Energy-Efficient Nonvolatile Flip-Flop With Subnanosecond Data Backup Time for Fine-Grain Power Gating

A nonvolatile flip-flop (NVFF) is proposed, where magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) are incorporated into a CMOS flip-flop (FF) to enable nonvolatility. The voltage-controlled magnetic anisotropy (VCMA) effect is utilized to back up the latched data into MTJs before the power supply is turned off. Switching an MTJ through the VCMA effect does not require a dedicated write circuit for data backup, resulting in reduced area as compared with NVFFs exploiting the spin transfer torque (STT) switching mechanism. In a VCMA-based NVFF, the MTJs are coherently switched, enabling ultra-energy efficient data backup with subnanosecond backup time. Simulation results exhibit more than a 342 $\times$ (33.7 $\times$ ) improvement in data backup energy per bit, and more than 35.5 $\times$ (7.7 $\times$ ) improvement in data backup delay per bit as compared with the most efficient STT-based NVFFs (spin Hall effect-based NVFF). The energy efficiency of the VCMA-based NVFF results in sufficiently short breakeven times, enabling effective fine-grain power gating.

Carbon, climate, and economic breakeven times for biofuel from woody biomass from managed forests

Woody biomass harvested from old-growth forests results in a significant “carbon debt” when used as a feedstock for transportation fuel. This is because previously stored forest carbon is released to the atmosphere as CO2. The debt is eventually repaid provided that the life cycle CO2 emissions of the biofuel are lower than the conventional fuel that is displaced. Managed forests are an alternative to old-growth forests with the potential to reduce the carbon debt associated with woody biomass-derived fuels. This work is the first to quantify the carbon debt incurred by transportation biofuels derived from woody biomass from managed forests. The breakeven time of this carbon debt is computed along with breakeven times for radiative forcing, temperature change, and economic damages. In the case of biofuel production for 30years, we find that breakeven times for carbon, radiative forcing, and temperature change are 59, 42, and 48years, respectively. If cumulative economic damages are computed for discount rates of 1–2%, the breakeven time is greater than 100years, while damages never break even at discount rates above 2%. Breakeven times decrease if the prevailing harvest cycle is left unchanged, but increase if biofuel production is sustained indefinitely.

Damaged forests provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change

AbstractBritish Columbia (BC) forests are estimated to have become a net carbon source in recent years due to tree death and decay caused primarily by mountain pine beetle (MPB) and related post‐harvest slash burning practices. BC forest biomass has also become a major source of wood pellets, exported primarily for bioenergy to Europe, although the sustainability and net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy in general are the subject of current debate. We simulated the temporal carbon balance of BC wood pellets against different reference scenarios for forests affected by MPB in the interior BC timber harvesting area using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3). We evaluated the carbon dynamics for different insect‐mortality levels, at the stand‐ and landscape level, taking into account carbon storage in the ecosystem, wood products and fossil fuel displacement. Our results indicate that current harvesting practices, in which slash is burnt and only sawdust used for pellet production, require between 20–25 years for beetle‐impacted pine and 37–39 years for spruce‐dominated systems to reach pre‐harvest carbon levels (i.e. break‐even) at the stand‐level. Using pellets made from logging slash to replace coal creates immediate net carbon benefits to the atmosphere of 17–21 tonnes C ha−1, shortening these break‐even times by 9–20 years and resulting in an instant carbon break‐even level on stands most severely impacted by the beetle. Harvesting pine dominated sites for timber while using slash for bioenergy was also found to be more carbon beneficial than a protection reference scenario on both stand‐ and landscape level. However, harvesting stands exclusively for bioenergy resulted in a net carbon source unless the system contained a high proportion of dead trees (&gt;85%). Systems with higher proportions of living trees provide a greater climate change mitigation if used for long lived wood products.

Use of sunlight for plant lighting in a bioregenerative life support system – Equivalent system mass calculations

Plant lighting is a critical issue for cost effectiveness of bioregenerative systems. A plant lighting system using sunlight has been investigated and compared to systems using electrical lighting. Co-generation of electricity and use of in situ resource utilization (ISRU) were also considered. The fixed part of equivalent system mass was found to be reduced by factors of from 3.1 to 3.9, according to the mission assumptions. The time-dependent part of equivalent system mass was reduced by a smaller value, of about 1.05. Cost effectiveness of bioregeneration has been compared to the cost of shipping food. Break-even times for different Lunar and Mars missions were generally in the order of 2–10 years, and were quite sensitive to the assumptions. There is significant scope for future refinement of these values, and work is ongoing.

The sources and success of innovations —Determinants of commercialisation and break-even times

Successful innovation is typically defined at the firm level using indicators such as market shares, productivity, or profitability. Nonetheless, firms are typically simultaneously involved in many innovation development projects which produce varying levels of success. This paper defines the success of innovations through the time taken for the innovations to reach commercialisation and break-even, and investigates the relationships between the sources and success of innovations using a unique database of Finnish innovations commercialised during the 1980s and 1990s. The paper contributes to previous research by covering a range of different types of innovations from various industries, and by applying duration analysis.

ECONOMIC COST OF EXPANDED CRITERIA DONORS IN CADAVERIC RENAL TRANSPLANTATION

7 The use of expanded criteria donors (ECDs) in cadaveric renal transplantation is increasing as the demand for organs continues to grow faster than the growth of supply. Here we assess the economic impact of the use of ECDs to the Medicare ESRD program, the most common payer for renal transplantation. Methods: We merged the UNOS renal transplant registry to Medicare claims data for 42,868 cadaveric renal transplants performed between 1991 - 1996 using identifiers provided by the USRDS. An ECD met any of these conditions: age <5 or >55, nonheartbeating, or history of hypertension or diabetes. High-risk recipients (HRR) were age >60, and/or retransplant. The total of all payments (PMT) for all services, facilities and supplies made by Medicare for these patients were projected from the pre-transplant dialysis period and compared to actual transplant and post-transplant payments to determine the time to financial break-even of transplant versus dialysis. This is the point where the cumulative cost of transplantation becomes less than dialysis. A 5% interest rate was assumed in all calculations. Results: There were 33,669 non-HRR transplants, of which 8,259 (25%) were ECDs, and 9,199 HRR transplants, of which 2,476 (27%) were ECDs. The present value of payments, and break-even times are given below: (Table)Conclusions: The impact of ECDs on Medicare payments is most pronounced in high-risk recipients. However, cadaveric renal transplantation is a cost saving treatment strategy for the Medicare ESRD program regardless of high-risk recipient status or the use of ECDs. These findings strongly support the use of ECDs in cadaveric renal transplantation.Table

The Transfer of Domestic-Market Production to a Foreign Site

Abstract The process of transferring production for a domestic market from a domestic site to a lower-cost foreign site is analyzed to determine under what conditions the firm will realize an economic benefit from such a transference. Assumptions are made concerning the particular production technology of interest, and models of both foreign and domestic costs are drawn from these assumptions. The managerial decision of whether or not to move production to the overseas location is framed in terms of a planning model, but the emphasis is on determining the breakeven times for domestic versus foreign operations as functions of the parameters of the various cases which comprise the off-shore sourcing possibilities.