Brazilian GDP Research Articles

The relevance of agriculture in Brazilian GDP and new technologies in agriculture

The growth of the world population in recent decades has created the need to increase food production, and this growing demand generates the need for greater efficiency and productivity in agriculture. Thus, countries that want to be competitive in the agricultural sector need to introduce technological improvements in order to reduce costs and increase the yield of agricultural activity. In this paper, we highlight the importance of the agricultural sector in Brazil’s GDP and present some examples of new technologies, mainly based on semiconductor devices, applied to the agricultural sector.

POTENTIAL USE OF Pinus patula WOOD FOR THE PRODUCTION OF PURE AND IN COMBINATION WITH Eucalyptus PLYWOOD PANELS

Plywood panels are products of great importance in the global market, and Brazil is a large producer of conifer plywood, which boosts industrial activities in the south of the country and consequently contributes to the Brazilian GDP. Pinus patula is an unconventional species that requires study for this purpose. Thus, this research aimed to evaluate the potential for using Pinus patula wood for the production of pure plywood panels and in combination with Eucalyptus grandis and Eucalyptus dunnii. 8 treatments were produced, pure and in combination of species, which were glued with phenol formaldehyde adhesive, in a grammage of 180 g/m2 and a solids content from the adhesive formulation of 34%, and pressed at a temperature of 140°C for 13 minutes at a specific pressure of 11 kgf/cm2. Pinus taeda was used as a reference species. The physical and mechanical properties were evaluated according to the ABNT NBR 17002 and ABNT ISO 12466 standards. The results demonstrated that, for the majority of the properties evaluated, the Pinus patula panels were statistically equal or superior in relation to Pinus taeda. The “combi” type panels showed that the Eucalyptus species contributed to improving the static bending property. It is concluded, therefore, that Pinus patula has potential for the production of plywood panels, allowing an increase in the availability and diversity of raw materials for industrial processes, and that the static bending property can be improved with the production of panels of the “combi'' type using Eucalyptus veneers.

O PLANEJAMENTO TRIBUTÁRIO DO PRODUTOR RURAL PESSOA FÍSICA: UMA ANÁLISE SOBRE A EVASÃO FISCAL

The agribusiness is one of the most relevant sectors in the economy. In 2022, it represented 24.3% of the Brazilian GDP. Due to its complex production chain, the stage within the gate is essential, as it represents rural activities focused on agriculture and livestock farming. In these activities, rural producers make crucial decisions related to plant and animal production and the allocation of resources for these activities. The general objective of this study is to present tax planning for individual rural producers within the gate as a strategy to avoid the hypothesis of tax evasion. To achieve this, the specific objectives are to conceptualize tax planning applied to individual rural producers, present the strategic use of tax planning for individual rural producers within the gate, and analyze tax evasion by individual rural producers. The methodological approach is based on logical-semantic constructivism, being a qualitative study with bibliographic, legal, and documentary research as instruments. As results, tax planning, or fiscal avoidance, was conceptualized as a strategic tool that uses legal means to reduce the tax burden. As a tool for individual rural producers, it requires continuous effort for its full implementation, as it is embedded in the complex scenario of sector management and taxation. The study also presents tax evasion considering the incidence of Income Tax (IR), Rural Territorial Property Tax (ITR), Circulation of Goods and Services Tax (ICMS), Social Integration Program (PIS), Contribution to Social Security Financing (COFINS), and Rural Worker Assistance Fund (FUNRURAL) on individual rural producers and their ancillary obligations, highlighting the Digital Cash Book of the Rural Producer (LCDPR), eSocial, and EFD-Reinf.

GDP growth in Brazil after the liberalising reforms

ABSTRACT The Brazilian economy implemented the trade and financial liberalisation reforms in the first half of the 1990s as a new development strategy. Since then, Brazilian GDP has been unstable and much lower compared to the previous period. Despite this, there was a short period of relatively higher economic growth rate from 2004 to 2008, but the Brazilian economic growth decelerated after 2011; the country entered a recession between 2014 and 2016, and then in a stagnation period from 2017 onwards. The aim of this article is to analyse the Brazilian economic performance after the liberalising reforms and evaluate the reasons the Brazilian economy decelerated after 2010. To do so, we consider the importance of manufacturing production to a country’s economic performance and analyse this relationship for the specific case of Brazil, checking the contribution of the manufacturing production growth to the country’s GDP growth in circumstances of increases and decreases in GDP growth. To complement this analysis, we also evaluate the existence of increasing returns to scale. The results show that manufacturing production growth is still important for the Brazilian economic performance, especially to explain the moments when the country’s GDP decreases.

Flexible markov-switching models with evolving regime-specific parameters: an application to Brazilian business cycles

ABSTRACT This article develops a flexible class of Markov-switching models in which the GDP growth rate is decomposed into a long-run growth trend and evolving regime-dependent means. The models can account for multiple regimes, breaks in the long-run trend, stochastic volatility, and time-varying transition probabilities. They can also handle data outliers that may arise from rare events, such as the COVID-19 crisis. We illustrate our methodology by modelling Brazilian GDP growth, which has exhibited complicated dynamics over the past four decades. Our results suggest two regimes, one long-run trend break, significant time variation in volatility, and the presence of outliers. Moreover, the selected model features time-varying transition probabilities driven by domestic variables (fiscal stance, reserves, and the real interest rate). Significantly, our findings indicate a marked decline in Brazil’s long-run growth in recent years.

PRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR OF DIFFERENT SOYBEAN GENOTYPES IN THE WESTERN REGION OF PARANÁ

The agribusiness sector is responsible for the largest percentage of the Brazilian GDP; nevertheless, agricultural activities have a low return rate and a high cost risk. To meet the financial needs of producers and agribusiness sectors, the choice of the genotype to be planted in commercial areas is one of the first decisions to be made. This study aimed to evaluate the production components of five different soybean genotypes in the western region of Paraná in the 2022/2023 season under standardized planting conditions. The experimental design used was a randomized complete block (RCB) with 5 treatments and 4 replications, totaling 20 experimental plots. The treatments consisted of planting different soybean genotypes (M 6100 XTD, AS 3615 I2X, P 96R10 IPRO, DM 60IX64 RSF I2X, and M 6110 I2X), all of indeterminate growth and early maturity. The genotypes AS 3615 I2X, DM 60IX64 RSF I2X, and M 6110 I2X have the Intacta2 Xtend technology, while M 6100 XTD has the Xtend Biotec technology, and P 96R10 has the Intacta RR2 PRO technology. Furthermore, all materials belong to the relative maturity group (GMR) 6.1, except for DM 60IX64 RSF I2X, which is in the GMR 6.0 group. The following parameters were evaluated: plant height (AP), number of racemes (NR), number of pods per plant (NVP), number of grains per pod (NGV), thousand-grain weight (MMG), productivity (PROD), and vegetative index (IV). After measuring the mentioned parameters, the results were subjected to the Tukey statistical test to compare the means, where significant differences (p<0.05) were observed among the genotypes (M 6100 XTD, AS 3615 I2X, P 96R10 IPRO, DM 60IX64 RSF I2X, and M 6110 I2X) for the morphological and productive variables NGV, MMG, and IV. For the productive component NGV, the genotype P 96R10 IPRO had the lowest mean (2.32 grains per pod) compared to the others. However, the same genotype had a higher mean MMG (153.59 g) when compared to AS 3615 I2X and DM 60IX64 RSF I2X. The variables that showed significant differences among the genotypes did not affect the final PROD of the experiment's genotypes because the evaluated genotypes have a high production capacity but different technologies. As there was no chemical management disruption, significant pest and disease attacks, or adverse weather conditions, all genotypes were able to develop their maximum production capacity.

Rentiers and distributive conflict in Brazil (2000–2019)

Abstract The paper examines the determinants of rentier income in contemporary financialised capitalist economies by analysing the case of Brazil. It argues that different drivers of rentier income may have comparable potential to channel a substantial share of aggregate income to asset owners. The paper estimates an expanded functional income distribution for Brazil for the period between 2000 and 2019, which distinguishes between rentier income, wages, profits of enterprise and government income. In the last two decades, the share of rentier income in Brazilian GDP has fluctuated around an approximately stable trend even though its composition has changed profoundly. The estimation presented allows for an analysis of the role played by financial expropriation (i.e. interest payments out of wage income) in this expanded functional income distribution, which points to alternative results concerning the recent trajectory of the wage share of income and of the distributive conflict.

Water Charge and Conservation of Natural Areas: An Ex‐Ante Assessment of a Policy Proposal for the Mantiqueira Region, Brazil

AbstractWater plays a central role in several socioeconomic and environmental nexuses. Faced with various anthropogenic pressures that act as water scarcity drivers and knowing that the unavailability of water can be a limiting factor for economic development, there is an urgent need for the design and evaluation of economic instruments that help in the management of water resources. This article presents a proposal and assessment for a Pigouvian water charge instrument. The instrument suggests imposing a charge based on the amount of water consumed, targeting the agriculture, livestock, forest extraction, and aquaculture sectors. The revenue generated from this charge could be utilized to fund reforestation initiatives and support government expenditures, thereby creating both environmental and economic advantages. Based on a calibrated static computable general equilibrium economic model for the Brazilian Mantiqueira region, it was possible to estimate that a water charge policy at a rate of R$ 0.10/m3 (US$ 0.026/m3) could lead to an increase in the Brazilian GDP in the benchmark year by US$ 10.7 million. Economic benefits could also be verified at the regional level, especially in those areas where there are water‐intensive economic activities. On the environmental side, the water charge could incentivize actions capable of recovering approximately 80 km2 of natural areas.

Exploring the Correlation between Brazilian Iron Ore Exports and the Chinese Construction Sector


 
 
 
 A B S T R A C T
 
 This article investigates the international iron trade, focusing on the Brazil-China network and its implications for economic and social progress. Iron supports various industries, particularly construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure development. The study employs descriptive analysis, quantitative measures, and correlation coefficients to analyse the dynamics of the iron trade. The research highlights Australia and Brazil as significant exporters in the global iron ore market, with China as the primary importer. Network analysis reveals China's extensive commercial connections and strong trade relationships with key exporting countries. Correlation coefficients demonstrate positive associations between Brazil's Iron Exports, Brazilian GDP, Chinese construction sector GDP, and world construction sector GDP, emphasising their interdependence. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers, economists, and industry stakeholders in navigating the complexities of the global economy. The study provides valuable insights into the international iron trade, its impact on the construction sector, and broader economic dynamics. It contributes to informed decision-making and promotes sustainable economic and social development.
 
 
 

Desindustrialização setorial e estagnação de longo prazo do setor manufatureiro brasileiro

ABSTRACT In Brazil and elsewhere in the world, diagnoses of deindustrialization are concentrated in aggregate manufacturing, so policies can be ineffective if deindustrialization has a sector-specific component. This study quantifies and analyses deindustrialization for the individualised manufacturing sub-sectors. To do this, unpublished series of the manufacturing sub-sectors’ share in the Brazilian GDP from 1970 to 2016 were created, based on official IBGE data. The results show that the manufacturing sub-sectors have deindustrialised at different intensities and periods of aggregate manufacturing, and a sub-sectoral approach reveals traces ignored by the literature on the quality of deindustrialization. We conclude that the Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (and expected) for the labour-intensive manufacturing sub-sectors, but premature (and undesirable) for the technology-intensive sub-sectors. Therefore, Brazilian deindustrialization has negative consequences for the country’s future scientific and technological development.

High-technology based startup in agribusiness sector: mapping linkages, products and services

Abstract: The agribusiness sector has experienced a significant pace of technological evolution. New resources, such as the use of drones, the internet of things, and satellite communication have been fundamental in the emergence of AgTechs, technological companies that have emerged from agribusiness. This article aims to map São Paulo AgTechs and the products and services they offer. This article contributes to the advancement of knowledge about AgTechs and their transformation of the Brazilian agribusiness field. AgTechs have expanded and strengthened the agribusiness sector, which represented approximately 21.4% of Brazilian GDP in 2019, and 26.6% in 2020, despite the political-health crisis and its challenge, it has continued the growth and investment trajectory in Rand and Development, while seeking to increase efficiency in interactions. This qualitative study is exploratory and has a bibliographic design. The data were collected from the Brazilian Association of Startups, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor reports, websites of AgTechs in São Paulo state, and Web of Science. The main results indicate the importance of the São Paulo ecosystem, in which are located 26% of Brazilian AgTechs, the largest concentration in the country. The products and services generated at AgTechs are high tech. In the state of São Paulo, there are three communities that interact with AgTechs and form an entrepreneur-innovative ecosystem.

Determinants of Growth in Mexico and Brazil Between 2003 and 2018: A Demand-led Decomposition of Growth Using Input-output Tables

ABSTRACT The main objective of this work is to carry out a demand-led growth decomposition for Brazil and Mexico so as to identify the main growth drivers and how the import structure has affected Brazilian and Mexican GDP growth between 2003 and 2018. We use the attribution (Dutch) method because it explains the contribution of each final demand component considering the import structure of intermediate and final goods and services required by each final demand component. The database used the national Input-Output Tables (IOTs) for both countries. We find that compared to the net-exports method, the external sector's contribution is underestimated for both countries, while the domestic contribution is overestimated. Furthermore, regarding the attribution method, the external sector is more important for Mexico than for Brazil, not because of its size in the final demand, but because it was the component that grew the most in the period. For Brazil, the domestic sector was the most crucial determinant of growth, especially household consumption.

Performance Assessment of Different Precipitation Databases (Gridded Analyses and Reanalyses) for the New Brazilian Agricultural Frontier: SEALBA

Since the early 2000s, Brazil has been one of the world’s leading grain producers, with agribusiness accounting for around 28% of the Brazilian GDP in 2021. Substantial investments in research, coupled with the expansion of arable areas, owed to the advent of new agriculture frontiers, led the country to become the world’s greatest producer of soybean. One of the newest agricultural frontiers to be emerging in Brazil is the one known as SEALBA, an acronym that refers to the three Brazilian states whose areas it is comprised of—Sergipe, Alagoas, and Bahia—all located in the Northeast region of the country. It is an extensive area with a favorable climate for the production of grains, including soybeans, with a rainy season that takes place in autumn/winter, unlike the Brazilian regions that are currently the main producers of these kinds of crops, in which the rainfall regime has the wet period concentrated in spring/summer. Considering that precipitation is the main determinant climatic factor for crops, the scarcity of weather stations in the SEALBA region poses an obstacle to an accurate evaluation of the actual feasibility of the region to a given crop. Therefore, the aim of this work was to carry out an assessment of the performance of four different precipitation databases of alternative sources to observations: two from gridded analyses, MERGE and CHIRPS, and the other two from ECMWF reanalyses, ERA5, and ERA5Land, and by comparing them to observational records from stations along the region. The analysis was based on a comparison with data from seven weather stations located in SEALBA, in the period 2001–2020, through three dexterity indices: the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean squared errors (RMSE), and the coefficient of Pearson’s correlation (r), showing that the gridded analyzes performed better than the reanalyses, with MERGE showing the highest correlations and the lowest errors (global average r between stations of 0.96, followed by CHIRPS with 0.85, ERA5Land with 0.83, and ERA5 with 0.70; average MAE 14.3 mm, followed by CHIRPS with 21.3 mm, ERA5Land with 42.1 mm and ERA5 with 50.1 mm; average RMSE between stations of 24.6 mm, followed by CHIRPS with 50.8 mm, ERA5Land with 62.3 mm and ERA5 with 71.4 mm). Since all databases provide up-to-date data, our findings indicate that, for any research that needs a complete daily precipitation dataset for the SEALBA region, preference should be given to use the data in the following order of priority: MERGE, CHIRPS, ERA5Land, and ERA5.

Off We Go! An interregional input-output analysis of e-hailing in Brazil

This study aims to assess the nature and the magnitude of the productive links of consumer operations made possible by the revenue generated by ride-hailing. We seek to map the interdependencies established between the consumption decisions of drivers that use the 99 app, a leading e-hailing provider, with other sectors and segments of the Brazilian economy. The dataset comprises operational information from 99 and an interregional input-output table for the Brazilian economy. In 2019, the intermediated trips only for 99 unfolded in more than 12 billion (BRL) added to the Brazilian GDP (equivalent to 0.18% of the total), each sector of the Brazilian economy being affected in different magnitudes. This study shows the degree of interdependence between these sectors and 99's business. In addition to the value added, indirect taxes were collected in the order of 1 billion (BRL), and 267.9 thousand jobs were generated.

DP 0265 - Brazilian Maritime Gdp, Social, Economic and Environmental Motivations for its Measurement and Monitoring

The interaction between the sea and the economy gives this environment enormous strategic importance. The forms of economic exploitation are diverse and include sectors such as energy, fishing, tourism, transportation, biotechnology, and shipbuilding. For Brazil, country with an extensive coastline and vast maritime space, its relevance is especially evident. In this scenario, it is fundamental to elaborate public policies aimed at maritime economic activities. For this purpose, a survey of the numbers referring to such activities is essential for a correct understanding of their dimension. Thus, the objective of this text is to point out the importance of measuring in a continuous and systematic way the Brazilian Maritime GDP, through a specific methodology, as well as to identify the main motivation for this initiative. Based on the descriptive inference method and on bibliographic survey, it was possible to verify the need to use updated data to support the formulation of public policies and decision-making on the subject, as well as to broaden the debate within other actors, such as academia, private sector and civil society.

Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Credit in Brazil: A SVAR Approach

This study aims to analyze, leaning on a structural autoregressive vector (SVAR), whether external variables, such as the commodity price index and the US GDP, are relevant to consistently capture the dynamic interaction between credit and important domestic variables in Brazil, namely, GDP, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. Shocks to the interest rate happen to be important for credit dynamics. At short horizons, shocks to credit itself play a greater role in explaining this variable. At long horizons, shocks to commodity prices are taken to be a respectable player in credit growth. The results also indicate that a positive shock to the interest rate implies a reduction in Brazilian GDP, remaining below its baseline. In turn, a positive shock to credit gives rise a small growth in Brazil’s GDP during a quarter, returning, thereafter, to its baseline. Finally, in the long run, the variance decomposition shows that shocks to commodity prices explain about 67%, 47%, 43% and 15% of the forecast error related to Brazilian GDP, credit, exchange rate and interest rate, respectively. This fact can be taken as an important determinant toward the dynamics of domestic variables in Brazil.

Forecasting Brazilian GDP Under Fiscal Foresight and Nonfundamentalness with a Noncausal Fiscal VAR

Forecasting Brazilian GDP Under Fiscal Foresight and Nonfundamentalness with a Noncausal Fiscal VAR

Cost-effectiveness analysis of trastuzumab for early breast cancer in Brazil

ABSTRACT Background: Adjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab for HER2 positive breast cancers has brought considerable benefits to disease-free survival and overall survival. Objective: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of patients with early and locally advanced HER2 positive breast cancer, within the scope of the Brazilian public health system, comparing adjuvant chemotherapy with and without trastuzumab, for 1 year of treatment. Methods: A 4-state Markov model was developed to estimate strategy costs and outcomes. Results: Based on the proposed model, we verified an incremental benefit of trastuzumab therapy compared to treatment without trastuzumab with 0.84 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and 1.16 life years gained (LYG). The use of adjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab has an ICER of US$19,599.26 for each quality-adjusted life year and US$14,180.68 for each life year gained in relation to chemotherapy without trastuzumab. Conclusion: In Brazil, adjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab may be considered cost-effective only if a cost-effectiveness threshold is stipulated with the value starting at three times the Brazilian GDP per capita for QALY or two times the Brazilian GDP per capita for LYG, from health system perspective.

Industry sector role in the Brazilian GDP and Exportation Share

With the advent of more complex technologies, a new industrial revolution has approached, which leads to changes in several processes and the industrial sector might have a crucial role in the present days since the advanced products the society uses are all manufactured and need well develop industrial plants to be produced. At the same time during the last 20 years, the world experienced the economical emergence of new countries, and among them one was Brazil. The current essay intends to investigate the powers behind the Brazilian growth during this period, dividing the GDP composition and comparing it with other similar countries. The focus will be the manufacturing sector’s role in the Brazilian economy, and whether the country is walking towards the modern advancements in society.

COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil

The outbreak of COVI-19 and the restrictive measures on the mobility of people in Brazil have raised serious concerns about the survival and recovery of passenger transport companies, especially those that generate public agglomerations. There are some policy proposals that aim to recover this set of sectors in the face of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the economic effects of two scenarios of recovery for this type of transport services in the Brazilian economy up to the end of 2022: (i) one with a 50% recovery until the end of 2021 and (ii) another with a 50% sectorial recovery until June 2022. This distinction allows us to assess the impact of the speed of recovery. In both scenarios, we also consider likely changes in the labor market, family preferences, and government spending. To accomplish this task, we developed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and has details of the transport sectors. The main findings suggest that the drop in these transport services is the main contributing factor to the decline in the Brazilian GDP growth (−2.2%) in the period of social distance measures. However, faster recovery of these sectors can generate a marginal effect of 0.5 percentage points on GDP at the end of 2021. In the recovery period, due to the redistributive effects of income, the family demand for public transport is expected to grow post- COVID-19 outbreak, while the demand for private transport is reduced, especially in the basket of goods of the poorest households. Vehicle, bus, and aircraft manufacture seems sensitive to the recovery time of the demand for transport services with public agglomerations.