Brazilian GDP Research Articles

Agribusiness in the Americas, Europe, and Brazilian States

Following Furtuoso and Guilhoto (2003) the GDP of the Brazilian Agribusiness is estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 2000, and the latest numbers show that it could be reaching 30% of the Brazilian GDP in 2003. Despite its importance for the Brazilian economy as a whole, the size of the Brazilian territory and the regional differences draws attention for the fact that the importance of the agribusiness is not uniform over the Brazilian regions, and if the agribusiness is also divided into its four components, i.e., a) inputs to agriculture; b) agriculture; c) agriculture based industry; and d) final distribution, the differences are even bigger. In this paper it is made a study of the importance of the agribusiness for the 27 states of the Brazilian economy, taking into consideration its four components. The analysis is conduct for the year of 1999 using an interregional input-output system constructed for the Brazilian economy by Guilhoto et al. (2004).

Brazilian inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: an empirical investigation

The question of whether a policy that leads to low inflation can hamper real economic activity and growth is a recurrent one in Brazil. In this essay we used yearly data to study the behavior of Brazilian inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000. We used econometric and business cycles techniques to study the behavior of these variables in time and frequency domains. The results suggest the absence of positive comovement between the series. Thus, the empirical evidence apparently implies that the option of easing up on inflation to avoid a slowdown in real economic activity and growth is not available to Brazilian policy makers.

News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements

Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.

Estimativa e mensuração do produto interno bruto do agronegócio da economia brasileira, 1994 a 2000

Utilizando-se de instrumentos de análise de insumo-produto e do sistema de contas nacionais, este trabalho apresenta nova metodologia para estimativa do PIB do Agronegócio de uma nação. O PIB do Agronegócio é também estimado para 2 grandes complexos: a) Produtos Vegetais; e b) Pecuária. Cada um destes complexos foi dividido em quatro componentes: a) insumos para a agricultura; b) agricultura; c) indústria de base agrícola; e d) distribuição final. Usando dados da economia brasileira foi possível estimar o PIB do Agronegócio brasileiro, o qual foi estimado por volta de 27% do PIB do Brasil em 2000

Forecasting Brazilian Output in the Presence of Breaks: A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks for the Brazilian real GDP growth. The Markov-switching models proposed by Hamilton (1989) and its generalized version proposed by Lam (1991) are applied to quarterly GDP from 1975:1 to 2000:2 allowing for breaks at the Collor Plans. The probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The ability of each model in forecasting out-of-sample the growth rates of GDP is examined. The forecasting ability of the two models is also compared with linear specifications. The authors find that nonlinear models display the best forecasting performance and that specifications including the presence of structural breaks are important in obtaining a representation of the Brazilian business cycle.

A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly frequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle are explicitly modeled within nonlinear frameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynamic factor model is used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict all recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined within and out-of-sample. In both cases the estimated indicator displays a better predictive performance compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. In particular, the inclusion of lags of the indicator improves substantially forecasts of the severity of recessions and strength of expansions, as measured by the volatility of changes in GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly frequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear frameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynamic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict all recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Using Input-Output to Measure the GDP and to Estimate Monthly Growth Rates of Productive Complexes: The Case of the Brazilian Agribusiness

Through the use of input-output analysis tools, like backward and forward linkages (Hirschman-Rasmussen and Pure), it was possible to delineate which are the sectors that belong to the Brazilian Agribusiness. From the definition of the sectors and using the Brazilian input-output tables it was possible to measure the GDP of Brazilian Agribusiness which were estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 1999. The GDP of the agribusiness was also estimated for two major complexes: a) Vegetal Products and b) Animal Products. Each of the Agribusiness complexes was divided into four components: a) inputs to agriculture; b) agriculture; c) agriculture based industry; and d) final distribution. To estimate the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness it was used on one hand the input-output tables to estimate the weight of each sector in the complex and on the other hand it was used a series of economic indexes (price and quantity) available for the Brazilian economy. It is important to stress that the measure of the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness GDP was done taking into consideration the income side of agriculture, i.e., we have tried to make the growth rates sensible to real price as well as real quantity changes, given that the quarterly estimates of the Brazilian Government Statistical Institute (IBGE) are given taken into consideration only growth rates into agricultural production, as so we do believe that the monthly growth rates that we have obtained are much more representative of what happen in the Brazilian Agriculture and Agribusiness than the ones released by IBGE

Sao Paulo

The Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR), projected to be the second largest urban agglomeration in the world, currently accounts for 18% of Brazilian GDP and 31% of industrial domestic product. This concentration of people and enterprises in a middle-income industrialized city has had a range of environmental consequences that affect human health and economic productivity. The profile summarizes the status of natural resources and enviromental risks in the SPMR, examines interactions between environmental quality and economic development, and describes the institutional setting for environmental management, including initiatives for improvement. The article summarizes a lengthier and more detailed profile that was prepared as part of a rapid urban environmental assessment of the SPMR (see the introductory article in this issue).

The Cyclical Component in Brazilian GDP

This paper presents an estimate of the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP obtained by allowing the trend component to follow a stochastic process. It also compares this estimate with a more naive one, obtained by forcing the trend to be deterministic. The main result this paper conveys is that the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP is very small, and hence almost all output fluctuations have been caused by long-run (real) factors.