Conjuncture Research Articles

Атомная энергетика как инструмент внешней политики России на Ближнем Востоке

Introduction. The article examines the development of the nuclear industry and the successes of the State Corporation “Rosatom” which allows Russia not only to ensure the growth of this important sector of industry and economy, but also to occupy a leading position in the world nuclear energy markets. In addition to the economic effect, this direction of state activity allows solving a wide range of foreign policy tasks. The article analyzes how the Russian state, using the potential of its nuclear industry and its competitive advantages, simultaneously realizes its interests in the Middle East. Methods and materials. During preparing the article, the authors used a synthesis of institutional and systemic approaches, a comparative historical approach, research in the development of diplomacy and the balance of “powers” in the foreign policy of the state, as well as predictive analysis within the problem field of the implementation of the foreign policy instrument under consideration. Analysis. At present, state corporation Rosatom is one of the leaders in the global nuclear industry and is implementing projects for the construction of 35 power units around the world, including the Middle East. Nuclear energy programs are currently planned or are under way in six countries in the region. Of the projects noted, Rosatom has firm agreements with Egypt, Iran and Turkey. Also, the Russian leadership is optimistic about the possibility of concluding contracts for the construction of nuclear power plants in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The competitive advantages of a Russian company have a wide range from technological advantages to the most flexible terms of cooperation, regardless of the foreign policy and global conjuncture. At the same time, the activities of Rosatom are converted into political advantages that ensure the strengthening of Russia’s influence in the Middle East region. Discussion. The authors assess the further development of the Middle East programs for the development of the peaceful atom, Russia’s participation in these processes, as well as the identification of associated risks. Results. The authors conclude that by using and developing nuclear energy, Russia is promoting its national interests in the context of the continuing negative economic and political background in the world. The country’s leading positions in this industry make it possible to build favorable forecasts regarding the application of nuclear energy in the field of foreign policy, including the Middle East, where Russia has many competitive advantages. Authors’ contribution. D.A. Mirgorod developed the content of the article and carried out its scientific edition. E.F. Parubochaya analyzed cases related to the implementation by Russia of nuclear power plant projects in Iran and Turkey.

Strategy‐proof size improvement: is it possible?*

AbstractThe number of assigned agents (i.e., size) is an important parameter in object allocations. While size maximality clashes with individual rationality and strategy‐proofness, it can still be possible to increase the size over a mechanism while keeping these properties. To pursue this research, we devise a size comparison criterion to investigate the possibility of size increase. A mechanism size‐wise dominates another mechanism if the latter never assigns more agents than the former, and at some problem, assigns more agents than . We obtain arguably mild conditions for a mechanism to not be dominated size‐wise by an individually rational and strategy‐proof mechanism. Moreover, whenever there are at least as many objects as the total number of agents, we find conditions, different from those previously mentioned, for a mechanism to not be dominated size‐wise by an individually rational and group strategy‐proof mechanism. These results have implications for deferred‐acceptance, top trading cycles, efficiency‐adjusted deferred‐acceptance, serial dictatorship, and Boston mechanisms.

KEYNES AND HAYEK: COMMONALITIES AND DIFFERENCES IN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES

Nearly a century after the renown Keynes‑Hayek debate, the two economists are still perceived as diametrically opposed. This is certainly not true in the realm of business cycle theory where for a period of time they both employed the Wicksell inspired savings‑investment approach. The publication of Keynes’s General Theory obscured these similarities and the IS‑LM model disconnected all possible ties between the two cycle theories. However, I argue that Keynes din not succeed in the General Theory to offer a consistent interest rate theory and that his 1937 articles which were meant for further clarification were received even worse than the book itself. If Keynes’s more nihilistic variant of the liquidity preference theory would be replaced which Leijohnhufvud’s Z theory (i.e., the Treatise plus output modifications), Keynes and the Austrians would still have considerable theoretical points in common in the realm of business fluctuations. The two cycle theories would complement, rather than contradict each other.

New axioms for top trading cycles

AbstractThe school choice problem is of great importance both in theory and practice. This paper studies the (student‐optimal) top trading cycles mechanism (TTCM) in an axiomatic way. We introduce two new axioms: MBG (mutual best group)‐quota‐rationality and MBG‐robust efficiency. While stability implies MBG‐quota rationality, MBG‐robust efficiency is weaker than robust efficiency, which is stronger than the combination of efficiency and group strategy proofness. The TTCM is characterized by MBG‐quota rationality and MBG‐robust efficiency. Our results construct a new basis to compare the TTCM with the other school choice mechanisms, in terms of both fairness and incentive‐related axioms.

The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1?2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises.

Examining the Impact of Working Capital Management Approaches on Financial Performance in the Textile Sector of Pakistan

Efficient management of operational funds holds immense importance for enterprises. The calculation of net working capital, achieved by subtracting current liabilities from assets, carries significant weight. Aspects such as durations for collecting and disbursing funds, the rate of inventory rotation, the transformation of cash, and the cycle of trade play a pivotal role in determining the level of profitability. This research undertook an evaluation of their influence on the profitability of Pakistan's textile industry, utilizing data from 10 publicly listed companies and subjecting them to thorough panel regression analysis. The findings brought to light that the Average Collection Period (ACP) exhibited an inconsequential and adverse impact on Net Operating Profit (NOP). Conversely, the Average Payment Period (APP) demonstrated a substantial reduction in NOP. While Inventory Turnover (ITID) displayed an insignificant amplification in NOP, Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) exhibited a positive correlation with the firm's financial performance in distinction to Net Trading Cycle (NTC) yielded a detrimental effect.

Do housing rental and sales markets incentivise energy-efficient retrofitting of western Germany’s post-war apartments? Challenges for property owners, tenants, and policymakers

A post-World War 2 building boom in western Germany (the original Bundesrepublik) produced a cohort of some 8 million apartments, built in 1946–1979, that are relatively homogeneous in design and materials. On average, these apartments are very energy-inefficient, consuming around 147 kWh of heating energy per square meter of floor area per year (kWh/m2/y). Retrofitting them to about 50 kWh/m2/y is necessary to meet Germany’s climate goals. Considerable skill and infrastructure have developed to attempt to achieve this, but it is expensive. This study investigates whether sales and rental markets disincentivise property owners from retrofitting these apartments to high energy efficiency standards. Data from sales and rental advertisements in 2019–2021 in Germany’s largest online housing advertisement portal, Immoscout24, were used to estimate market sales and rental premiums for energy efficiency in these apartments. For property owners who retrofit apartments then sell them, sales premiums for energy efficiency generally fail to compensate for the retrofit costs, unless the renovation is subsidised. Meanwhile, for purchasers, the reduction in energy costs due to higher energy efficiency does not compensate for the higher purchase price. Likewise, for landlords/landladies who retrofit apartments then rent them out, the rental premiums due to higher energy efficiency are nowhere near sufficient to compensate for the retrofit costs. Tenants, however, can often offset the rental premium through energy savings. In all four cases, there is regional variation. Based on a detailed investigation of this market for energy efficiency, this study suggests specific policy interventions to compensate for these market anomalies.

Становлення мікро- та макроекономічного аналізу фінансового посередництва. Стаття перша. Теорії посередницьких функцій банків Д. Даймонда і Ф. Дибвіга та становлення мікроекономічного аналізу фінансових інституцій

The first of two articles which reveal the theoretical and practical significance of the researches awarded 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences. The author shows that the laureates laid the foundations of both the modern microeconomic theory of banks and financial institutions and the analysis of the role of financial intermediation in macroeconomic cycles. It is found that until the 1980s two powerful theoretical traditions dominated in the analysis of financial intermediation. The first tradition was to consider banks primarily as subjects of the money supply. It originates from the controversy between the quantitative theory of money and the real bills doctrine and culminates in the outstanding work by M. Friedman and A. Schwartz. The second tradition was a well-formalized neoclassical approach to the financial system. It was based on the efficient markets hypothesis, the Modigliani-Miller theorem, and the banking theory of E. Fama, where financial institutions are only a veil for real economic activities. It is shown that the growth of interest in the micro- and macroeconomic aspects of the financial sector activities in the late 1970s was due to the growth of its power due to the development of technologies and globalization, and due to the emergence of information economic theory which created a theoretical basis for the endogenous derivation of financial intermediaries that overcome market imperfections in ensuring the flow of funds between savers and borrowers. The article reveals the theoretical and practical importance of D. Diamond and Ph. Dybvig’s works, in which a bank endogenously arises as an optimal contract for solving important socio-economic problems of financing long-term projects with liquid deposits and of delegated monitoring of borrowers. The author emphasizes the importance of the scientists’ analysis and formalization of the incentives that determine the peculiarities of the intermediary role of banks and the nature of their services for financial regulation. It is shown that the model of delegated monitoring by D. Diamond not only demonstrates social benefits of specialization in monitoring, but also solves the problem of depositors' monitoring a bank as a monitor, revealing the incentives for the efficient implementation of borrowers monitoring by the bank: in conditions of diversification of borrowers, when their profits have an independent probability distribution, monitoring helps to avoid liquidation even in the event that part of the borrowers' projects are not successful. It is concluded that the formalization of the banks’ built-in vulnerability in the Diamond-Dybvig model, associated with their function of maturity transformation, and its overcoming by government institutional mechanisms, which, among other things, can distort the banks’ incentives, in effect substantiate the "symbiosis" of a state and banks in ensuring the latter’s stable functioning.

A Macro-Finance Model with Sentiment

Abstract This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking model of extrapolative expectations that overreact to recent news. Frictions in financial intermediation produce non-linear spikes in risk premia and slumps in investment during periods of financial distress. The interaction of sentiment with financial frictions generates a short-run amplification effect followed by a long-run reversal effect, termed the feedback from behavioural frictions to financial frictions. The model features sentiment-driven financial crises characterized by low pre-crisis risk premia and neglected risk. The conflicting short-run and long-run effect of sentiment produces boom–bust investment cycles. The model also identifies a stabilizing role for diagnostic expectations. Under the baseline calibration, financial crises are less likely to occur when expectations are diagnostic than when they are rational.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Methods and Retail Investors Based on Graham Value Investment Theory

China's A-share market has many retail investors, and individual investors are easily affected by emotions and impulse to buy and sell, so they will be a lot of losses in the market. This paper imitates the investment model of retail investors, chases after going up trading behavior, and constructs investment strategies based on Graham's value investment theory through screening out several simple, clear, and measurable indicators, and selecting the appropriate trading cycle. Finally, in the past decade of A-shares, through back-testing, the proposed relevant strategy proves that it can get a return much higher than the return of retail investors' investment returns, inflation rates and government bond return. The sensitivity analysis of various indicators of the strategy is carried out. This paper hopes that through the analysis and comparison of the two investment methods, a better investment model can be obtained, and a stable preservation and appreciation of wealth can be realized.

Organizational capital and optimal Ramsey taxation

Many recent studies have argued that it is useful to introduce a third input into the neoclassical production technology which encapsulates the productivity enhancing knowledge created in the process of production. This input, often called organizational capital, has been shown to improve the predictions of dynamic general equilibrium models, especially at the business cycle frequency. In this paper, we study the impact of organizational capital on optimal taxation in the Ramsey tradition and find that the planner would behave quite differently in the presence of organizational capital than in its absence. We use simulations to show that the optimal capital income tax is different from zero in environments where earlier models predicted zero taxes or even subsidies. In the model, both capital and labor taxes distort the accumulation of organizational capital and the planner must trade off these dynamic distortions to fund the obligations of the government. As a result, the planner chooses a positive tax on labor and capital. Generally the tax on labor income is lower while that on capital income is higher than predicted in the absence of organizational capital.

In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate

We uncover the major drivers of macro aggregates and the real exchange rate at business cycle frequencies in Group of Seven countries. The estimated main drivers of key macro variables resemble each other and account for a modest fraction of the real exchange rate variances. Dominant drivers of the real exchange rate are orthogonal to main drivers of business cycles, generate a significant deviation of the uncovered interest parity condition, and lead to small movements in net exports. We use these facts to evaluate international business cycle models accounting for the dynamics of both macro aggregates and the real exchange rate.

On difference and combination

Abstract This article draws on fieldwork in the majority Latinx (gender-neutral Latinos/as) rust-belt city of Reading and the majority white suburbs and rural towns of Berks County, Pennsylvania, United States, where three social movement groups are forging a left/liberal alignment. A history of uneven economic and social development in Reading/Berks underlies current divisions that confront the social movement organizations. Scholars grapple with bringing capital's non-waged and marginalized “others” into class analysis, and they remap class stuggles to account for capital's many laborers. The article proposes to apprehend how class is formed by combining difference, in the medium of time, and through political struggle. It explores the hidden relations among diverse populations and highlights the political moments that bring those connections to the fore at a specific historical conjuncture.

Earthly Matters, Earthy Visions: National Architecture Narratives and the Unexpected Culture of Norwegian Rammed Earth Houses

Abstract: This research paper shares the neglected story of rammed earth houses in Norway, with a focus on the past conditions that enabled its craft and emergence. Architectural representations in the country have been inexorably tied to craft traditions and localisms, framed as a marriage of natural materials and the built form; however, wood and stone occupy center stage of this material-oriented ethos. Very little attention is given to old rammed earth building techniques. Beyond tectonic considerations, the paper's aim is to document the value-tinged discourse around the making of rammed earth houses, or jordhus, built at the end of the nineteenth century, between 1920 and 1930, and during the post–World War II building boom. I examine and document the social circumstances and ideologies that caused Norwegian individuals to turn to—and away from—such a material. Based on Asbjørn Klepp's seminal "Jordhus i Norge," as well as Akershus Museum's little-known surveys, building projects in Østland, Vestland, and Sørland are the focus of this study of the social, cultural and technological histories embedded in rammed earth free-standing walls. Notions of sustainability and craft, of vernacular knowledge and home aesthetics are then utilized to qualify and weigh the significance of jordhus for present-day building narratives of Norway, thus shedding new light on established methods for the writing and telling of the country's architectural narratives: in the concluding section, I briefly comment on rammed earth's resurgence in the face of current climate concerns and describe a contemporary case study (Raab Jordhus, 2019) that shows the material's significance for future Norwegian architectural cultures.

The African Novel of Ideas: Philosophy and Individualism in the Age of Global Writing

The African Novel of Ideas: Philosophy and Individualism in the Age of Global Writing

SPAIN: AT THE START OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN – 2023

The article analyzes the domestic political and economic results of 2022 in Spain on the eve of the start of the campaign for elections to local and autonomous authorities, as well as to the national parliament of the country. The stabilization of the socio-economic situation became possible in the context of unprecedented financial assistance from the European Union, as well as thanks to the active policy of social interventionism of the center-left government of Spain. Despite the relative internal political stability against the background of negative processes in the leading EU countries, there is no guarantee of maintaining positive dynamics in the economy and social sphere due to the country’s excessive dependence on the economic conjuncture of the European Union. The situation is aggravated by the persistence of the general crisis of the Spanish political system, which has developed because of the compromises of the post-Franco democratic transit period. Against the background of a complex and contradictory situation with the alignment of domestic political forces, the leading Spanish parties have actually come to a consensus in the field of foreign policy based on unconditional loyalty to the common line of the West. This position of the country’s leading parties contradicts the ideas about the national interests of Spain, formed by a significant part of the electorate, both left and right wing. Taking into account the real domestic political and economic situation, as well as due to the weak influence of the foreign policy factor on the Spanish electorate, the author concludes that following the results of the 2023 election campaign in Spain, no political party in the country will be able to form a stable parliamentary majority. Thus, the situation of increasing domestic political instability seems to be real, which could open the way to national politics for new forces capable of reorienting the country’s foreign policy in accordance with the sentiments of a significant part of Spanish voters.

Do External Impacts Cause Differences between Regional and National Business Cycles?: Focusing on the Dongnam Metropolitan Area

Purpose – This study analyzes large differences and similarities through comparison with national level business fluctuations, including differences between regions within the Dongnam metropolitan area, focusing on the impact of major domestic and international economic shocks. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study conducted econometric analysis using the Markov switching model with the monthly manufacturing production indexes of each region from 2000 to 2020 as data. Findings – The characteristics of Dongnam metropolitan area, distinguished from other regions nationwide, are as follows. First, the regions’s manufacturing focuses on the heavy chemical industry and did not shrink, even during the 7th cyclical recession caused by the global IT bubble bursting. Second, the manufacturing sector in the Dongnam metropolitan area continued a downward trend, even during the 11th cyclical expansion. However, economic impact was found to have varied in size by region. Our analysis results show that Busan was more affected by internal and external impacts than Ulsan and Gyeongnam, showing slower recovery. Ulsan was shown to have much higher manufacturing resilience than other regions, despite several internal and external economic impacts. Finally, Gyeongnam showed several recession phases in 2008 and after 2016, but the duration was found to have been much shorter than in Busan. Research Implications – The impact and characteristics of business cycles caused by external shocks were found to have varied by region. The results imply that regionally specialized industrial support measures are required together with economic stabilization policies at the national level. It was also found that separate measures at the regional level need to be implemented in connection with governmental support measures for regional manufacturing industries.

Correction to "Physician workforce planning and boom-bust economic cycles: a retrospective on the Barer-Stoddart report".

CMAJ has been made aware of an error that occurred in the Jan. 30, 2023, issue.[1][1] In the last paragraph on the third page of the article, the third sentence read “Governments cut back on funding for residency positions and the Medical Council of Canada placed a quota on funded residency

A Privacy-Enabled, Blockchain-Based Smart Marketplace

Advancements in sensor-enabled devices led to the emergence of resource trading models for smart communities, such as the smart marketplace (SMP). Most of the proposed SMP architectures are based on blockchain technology, which has a public ledger to achieve transparency. Consequently, safeguarding the participant’s anonymity, untraceability, and transactional data privacy during trading becomes a challenging task. Most of the existing solutions to achieve anonymity are based on multiple account mapping, which is prone to identity-based attacks, and cryptographic techniques are used to achieve transactional data privacy, which often has a high computational overhead. In this work, we propose a lightweight privacy-enabled message exchange mechanism to accomplish our privacy goals in a blockchain-based SMP. Evaluation of the scheme was conducted to measure its resilience toward safeguarding participants’ anonymity, untraceability, and transactional data privacy during trading cycles. Statistical game theory-based security analysis and simulation based performance analysis of the proposed scheme showed that it achieved the desired privacy goals with a low computational overhead compared with existing state-of-the-art schemes.

2008 economic crisis impact on perinatal and infant mortality in Southern European countries

IntroductionThe study of crisis events provides important lessons to prepare for upcoming events. The Great Recession’s impact on perinatal health in Europe can provide relevant insights into the healthcare and...