Conjuncture Research Articles

Introduction: Ontology and Blackness, a Dossier

Introduction: Ontology and Blackness, a Dossier

EUROPEAN COMMISSION – SPRING 2022: DANGEROUS CHANGE OF MOOD

Changes in the current rhetoric of the European Commission (EC) have been revealed by reviewing the content of its press releases and measures taken to respond to the Russian special operation in Ukraine. The author of the article considers these changes dangerous, undermining the ideological foundations of European integration – openness and partnership, as well as standards and norms of the functioning of the Internal Market. An explanation of the current activity of the EC is offered: official Brussels uses the Ukrainian crisis to activate the economic conjuncture, as well as to increase the effectiveness or cover up the miscalculations of its policy in other areas such as green transition, strategic autonomy, global leadership. The EC's attempt to introduce criminal liability through European legislation for circumvention by European companies and countries of anti-Russian sanctions adopted at the EU level was tracked (the corresponding proposal was made on May 25). Two hypotheses have been formulated. First: the EC, whose existential goal is to expand its powers, de facto sees itself not only as a market regulator, but also as an EU power structure, increasingly coordinating the real European law enforcement agencies Europol, Eurojust and Frontex, which seems to be an equally dangerous trend for the future of European integration. Second: activation of the conjuncture and economic growth in the EU are impossible in conditions of a decrease in the resource and market base.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Cycle on IPO Passing Rate

The Impact of Macroeconomic Cycle on IPO Passing Rate

An Agent-Based Home Exchange Model to Reduce Commute Times of University Students

This article reports results of a study on reducing commute times in Istanbul, Turkey with special reference to university students. In order to reduce commute times in cities with high population density, this study proposes a mutual home exchange model for university students. The proposed model searches for suitable matches that can reduce commute times for residents in the case that they want to exchange their houses. A new matching algorithm has been designed in the context of this study. Agent-based approach has been preferred to define and solve home exchange problem and each home location is considered as an agent. Furthermore, two main one-sided matching algorithms, which are Irving’s Stable Roommate matching algorithm and Gale’s Top Trading Cycles matching algorithm, have been implemented for the home exchange problem. The proposed algorithm and two matching algorithms have been applied on a virtual data. The results of home exchange matching algorithms are presented.

Big Gulf Coast projects eyed

A commodity chemical building boom may be in store for the US Gulf Coast. Ineos says it is evaluating sites for a world-scale acetic acid and derivatives plant in the region. The firm, which expects to make a final investment decision by the end of 2023, says the region offers competitively priced feedstocks, among other advantages. Ineos says it is not proceeding with a plant for the acetic acid derivative vinyl acetate at its site in Hull, England, because of a “volatile and uncompetitive energy costs outlook.” Separately, an application for property tax breaks filed with local authorities shows that LyondellBasell Industries is planning a polyethylene plant for its complex at Corpus Christi, Texas. And according to similar state property tax documents, Occidental Chemical plans to invest in its chlor-alkali complex in Deer Park, Texas. The company says the project will boost chlorine and caustic soda output while lowering the

The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK

The debate on the inflation–unemployment relationship has focused almost exclusively on the distinction between the “short-run” and “long-run” Phillips curves, while virtually ignoring the “middle” horizons. Using a historical perspective, we show that the UK wage Phillips curve is essentially a medium-run phenomenon. At the frequency range beyond business cycle frequencies, that is 8 to 16 years, there is significant evidence of a negative and stable relationship between money wage inflation and unemployment.

Dimension Reduction for High‐Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models*

AbstractThis article aims to decompose a large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model into two components, the first one being generated by a small‐scale VAR and the second one being a white noise. Hence, a reduced number of common components generates the entire dynamics of the large system through a VAR structure. This modelling, which we label as the dimension‐reducible VAR, extends the common feature approach to high‐dimensional systems, and it differs from the dynamic factor model in which the idiosyncratic component can also embed a dynamic pattern. We show the conditions under which this decomposition exists. We provide statistical tools to detect its presence in the data and to estimate the parameters of the underlying small‐scale VAR model. Based on our methodology, we propose a novel approach to identify the shock that is responsible for most of the common variability at the business cycle frequencies. We evaluate the practical value of the proposed methods by simulations as well as by an empirical application to a large set of US economic variables.

Development of public cloud manufacturing markets: a mechanism design approach

Online manufacturing markets are new emerging types of markets that are spreading in the shade of public Cloud Manufacturing. This paper introduces a public Cloud Manufacturing market and denotes its differences from a private one. Public Cloud Manufacturing enables service-oriented manufacturing models for everyone in society. The prosperity of such market is tied to appropriate matching between providers to consumers. This paper elaborates on a mechanism to prescribe an appropriate allocation between resources and demands in this public market. The mechanism exploits the VIKOR method to develop preference lists for providers and consumers, the method also is augmented by the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets to remove complexities and uncertainties that exist in the process of ranking; and Deferred Acceptance (DA) algorithm is utilised as the matching algorithm of the mechanism. The performance of the mechanism is analysed under influence of the proposer, resource availability and matching algorithm. The influence of proposer study indicates that the situation of the consumer as the proposer is preferred to the providers’ situation as proposer; the influence of resource availability study indicates a balanced situation is preferred to the scarcity and abundancy situations and the influence of matching algorithm indicates that DA outperforms Top Trading Cycle (TTC) algorithm as the matching algorithm of the mechanism.

Concurrent 22. Presentation for: Central Queensland hydrogen project

Presented on Thursday 19 May: Session 22 Renewable hydrogen is being heavily promoted around the world for energy storage, and to support the decarbonisation of energy systems. Queensland is well placed for hydrogen export to Asia and is actively working to make this a reality. Stanwell Corporation, together with its project partners Iwatani, APA Group, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Marubeni and Kansai Electric Power Company, is working to develop a commercial world-scale project to produce and export hydrogen from Gladstone to Japan, supporting Japan’s Net Zero by 2050 commitment. The size of the hydrogen production system (3 GW) is significant and as a first of a kind in Queensland raises several technical, regulatory and social challenges. To highlight the scale of the project, the renewable power generation to be installed to support this project will have a capacity equivalent to the current Queensland daily power demand. There are several challenges, one being that solar and wind energy resources by their nature are variable. Identifying and defining the mix of renewable energy to achieve a reliable power supply, and integrating this with the electrolyser systems, will be key to the success of the project. The upgrades required to existing power transmission infrastructure are significant, while additional water supply in the Gladstone region will be required. Finally, recent developments in Gladstone have created a boom–bust cycle and the social acceptance of this development requires ongoing engagement to address community concerns. To access the presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here

Crossing Bar Lines: The Politics and Practices of Black Musical Space

Crossing Bar Lines: The Politics and Practices of Black Musical Space

Editor’s Note: Thank You, Dan Brown, for Improving the Stereotype

During the postwar years, a spectacular building boom in Miami and Havana, much of it financed with Mafia money, was documented by the photographic team of Annette and Rudi Rada. Their dynamic pictures appeared in popular magazines and tourist brochures, emphasizing the luxurious baroque modernism of the new hotels and beach houses, presenting South Florida and the Caribbean as idyllic playgrounds for American consumers of the 1950s. Victor Deupi evaluates the work of the Radas and reveals their lesser-known images showing the poverty of the region, including Seminole chickee huts in the Everglades and the sprawling shantytowns that encircled Havana.

The modern trends in the development of management organizations

The article formulates and reveals the directions of improving the management of organizations under the new economic mechanism, characterized by the complexity of the environment of their functioning, caused, primarily, by radical scientific and technical transformations. The purpose of the study is aimed at identifying trends in the development of management of organizations, that correspond to the current economic conjuncture, in order for them to achieve the best competitive positions and performance indicators. The objectives of the study are related to the consideration of the regularities of the functioning of organizations in the current economic conditions and the disclosure that follow from them of the directions of their management. The study was carried out using the dialectical method, the use of which combined with deductive and inductive methods contributed to determining the main priorities for the development of management of organizations at the present time. The core of the research was the expansion of management specialization, the modification of the management system, the strengthening of the scientific nature of management. The material is intended for managers and specialists, figures of education and science, specializing in the study of managerial work.

No privacy, no peace: Urban surveillance and the movement for Black lives

ABSTRACT In mid-2020, the movement for Black liberation reached a new stage after the murder of George Floyd generated unprecedented urban protests against racial injustice. Two years on, these appeals have not translated into widespread policy change. We analyze the movement’s relationship to the U.S. state, focusing on state surveillance of the movement. To grasp this, we consider four distinct but intersecting historical processes: first, the long-standing repression of Black people by the U.S.; second, a political shift in the management of urban protest after September 11, 2001; third, the rapid enhancement of technological means for surveillance; and fourth, the emergence of an evolved political form of authoritarianism since ca. 2009. The political economic conjuncture of these processes is not conducive to the movement for Black lives. This movement, and the campaign to reduce state surveillance, are therefore interdependent struggles for collective liberation.

Central Queensland hydrogen project

Renewable hydrogen is being heavily promoted around the world for energy storage, and to support the decarbonisation of energy systems. Queensland is well placed for hydrogen export to Asia and is actively working to make this a reality. Stanwell Corporation, together with its project partners Iwatani, APA Group, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Marubeni and Kansai Electric Power Company, is working to develop a commercial world-scale project to produce and export hydrogen from Gladstone to Japan, supporting Japan’s Net Zero by 2050 commitment. The size of the hydrogen production system (3 GW) is significant and as a first of a kind in Queensland raises several technical, regulatory and social challenges. To highlight the scale of the project, the renewable power generation to be installed to support this project will have a capacity equivalent to the current Queensland daily power demand. There are several challenges, one being that solar and wind energy resources by their nature are variable. Identifying and defining the mix of renewable energy to achieve a reliable power supply, and integrating this with the electrolyser systems, will be key to the success of the project. The upgrades required to existing power transmission infrastructure are significant, while additional water supply in the Gladstone region will be required. Finally, recent developments in Gladstone have created a boom–bust cycle and the social acceptance of this development requires ongoing engagement to address community concerns.

Deutsche Hypothekenbanken zwischen Sicherheitsdenken und Spekulationsfieber: Immobilienfinanzierung im Bauboom des späten 19. Jahrhunderts

Abstract German mortgage banks based on stock, more frequently founded from the early 1860s, used the traditional Pfandbrief system to cope with the growing tasks of urban and housing construction. Its safety for both creditors as well as debtors of real estate financing depended not least on a clear limitation of business activities. During the building boom of the late 19th century, however, many mortgage banks undertook a massive expansion of their business and developed highly complex corporate structures, so that the well-established rules for lending on real estate were increasingly undermined. Using the examples of the “Pommern-” and the “Preußenbankgruppe”, the article explores the distortions resulting from the building boom of the late 19th century and analyses the economic, penal, and legislative means that were used to solve them. The study concludes that, due to their severity, the crisis phenomena in the real estate market of the 1890s led to a uniform regulation of mortgage banks across the Reich for the first time, which indeed achieved a sustainable stabilization of the Pfandbrief system: the price, however, was the isolation of German mortgage banking from developments in Western Europe.

Big History—A Study of All Existence

This is a brief overview of the field of big history and my personal reflection on its significance. Like others, I developed a macro-perspective of existence from the 1950s onward, as a natural way of thinking, without label or rubric. It was only in 2003 that I heard of big history and realized this concept expressed much of what I had been doing. This realization mirrored the experience of many others around the world in the second-half of the 20th century—interdisciplinary and macro-historical studies had emerged independently around the planet in a global conjuncture. It was a general human expression, representing an impulse of humanity. For my part, I had engaged in ethnographic studies in various locations, with a focus on human adaptation. I therefore saw cosmic evolution, big history, and universal studies as a component of humanity’s survival strategy—a concept especially understood by our post-Soviet and Asian colleagues. As a result, my focus in this two-part article is on how macro-historical studies relate to the theme of human survival in this modern era of climate crisis. Others will have a different focus and have been effected by different concepts and authors. Their views are just as valid, and I encourage them to share them. Big history is a house with many rooms.

A FREQUENCY-DOMAIN ANALYSIS OF MEDIUM-SCALE DSGE MODELS

This paper employs the local Bayesian likelihood methodology to estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on different frequencies and uses frequency-domain tools to evaluate the time-varying parameter model and the fixed-parameter model. These techniques yield fresh insights into theoretical and empirical implications conveyed by alternative models beyond what conventional time-domain approaches can offer. We show that parameter estimates are sensitive to frequencies, and goodness-of-fit varies substantially with the frequency bands. Overall, the estimated time-varying parameter model captures the properties of the U.S. data better in the business cycle frequency band, and beyond this band, the fixed-parameter model performs better. Additionally, our study also reveals the importance of structural shocks in improving the fit between models and data. Finally, we utilize the spectral representation of generalized forecast error variance decomposition to investigate the frequency dynamics of volatility connectedness. We find shocks to economic activity have an impact on variables at different frequencies with different strengths, and markets become more connected during crisis periods. Furthermore, this study provides insights into a question policymakers are much concerned with: which shocks are major sources of economic volatilities and which sectors serve as major recipients of shocks?

Falling into the Gaps, Together: On Peer Review as Intellectual Accompaniment

Falling into the Gaps, Together: On Peer Review as Intellectual Accompaniment

Greenwashing behaviors in construction projects: there is an elephant in the room!

In the process of urbanization, a brisk building boom triggers a series of environmental problems. Construction contractors usually present environmentally fraudulent behaviors, i.e., greenwashing behaviors (GWBs), to legitimize their activities, ultimately hindering the sustainable development of the society. However, the formation mechanism of the contractors' GWBs is still unclear. Through the lens of fraud GONE theory (i.e.,greed, opportunity, needs, and exposure), this study applies the multi-group structural equation model (SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine the formation mechanisms of GWBs. The results of SEM show the relationships between four fraud factors and GWBs. Additionally, the projects are grouped into three categories: government investment projects, private-public-partnership (PPP) projects, and private investment projects. The results of multi-group SEM reveal that the effects of four fraud factors differ significantly across projects with different investment characteristics. The results of fsQCA suggest that there are three typical driving mechanisms for GWBs. Furthermore, this study develops a project information transparency framework and a "greenwashing tree" to form a systematic understanding of GWBs. Finally, on these bases, this study provides targeted suggestions and policy recommendations for governing contractors' GWBs.

ФИНАНСОВЫЕ ИНДИКАТОРЫ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ ВЫЯВЛЕНИЯ И НЕЙТРАЛИЗАЦИИ УГРОЗ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ СТРОИТЕЛЬНОЙ ОТРАСЛИ

The problem of identifying threats to economic security in enterprises consists of economic reforms carried out in Russia. In turn, entrepreneurial activity by its nature is usually associated with uncertainty and risk in the field of economic conjuncture.
 The construction industry is one of the most material-intensive sectors of the country's economy. Taking into account the risky nature of the organization's activities in the face of ever-increasing fierce competition and sanctions pressure, today it actualizes the consideration of the problem of ensuring economic security to detect signs of insolvency and bankruptcy of construction industry enterprises.
 Constant monitoring and timely identification of threats to the stability of the financial situation and economic security contributes at an early stage to identify destabilizing factors in the development of the enterprise, take urgent measures and outline ways to eliminate them.