Bond Credit Ratings Research Articles

Determinants and Sensitivity of Credit Ratings: A Panel Data Analysis

Using panel ordinal logit model from 2009 to 2019, this study analyzed the determinants of corporate bond credit ratings. Although credit rating agencies consider both market and financial factors to determine rating (Agency Rating, AR), most literature only considers the effect of financial factors on AR. This study attempts to fill this gap by adding market risk measure and analyzing the effect on bond-implied rating (BIR) determination. We also analyze the sensitivity difference between AR and BIR. Our finding reveals that both AR and BIR are significantly improved when volatilities in sales and operating profit increase. Regarding rating inflation (mismatches), increases in assets further improve AR, while net exports and industrial activity lower BIR, leading to rating inflation. The increase in M2 (broad measure of money supply) worsens AR while improving BIR, leading to rating deflation. Finally, the effects of large enterprises, recession, and construction industries on the rating inflation is analyzed through dummy variables. The results revealed that, unlike in previous studies, the dummy variable of large enterprises was not significant. The relative worsening of BIR during the recession resulted in rating inflation. Finally, the stigma effect on construction industry was observed, which shows significant rating inflation. Key words: Credit Rating Agency; Agency Rating; Bond Implied Rating; Credit Rating Inflation; Ordered Logit Model JEL Classification: D82, G24, L15

The relationship between female workforce participation and corporate bond credit ratings

The topic of gender diversity in the workforce has received an increasing amount of attention and even resulted in developing a new term, sheconomy, which describes an economy in which women are the main economic players. This study examines the relationship between female workforce participation and corporate bond credit ratings. Using an ordered logit regression model and a sample of listed companies on the Korea Exchange, the results show that the higher the number and proportion of women in the workforce (based on female directors and female employees), the higher the credit rating. However, for chaebol companies, where female directors’ positive role is limited by chaebol owners, a negative (–) moderating effect is observed in the relationship between female workforce participation and credit ratings. Besides, female directors who are members of the owner’s family and were appointed as a means of succession negatively affect a company’s value. The findings contribute to accounting and finance research on the relationship between governance and credit ratings in terms of gender diversity. Policy implications regarding the recent system changes in Korea, including introducing a gender quota system, can be derived from the study.

Research on the Effectiveness of KMV Model in China's Bond Credit Rating Market

In recent years, China's bond market has experienced rapid development, but the pace of credit risk supervision has not kept up. Since 2014, the number of domestic credit bond defaults has increased. In 2016, there were 79 domestic default bonds, with a default amount of up to 40.3 billion Yuan. From the perspective of domestic bond market credit risk supervision and early warning mechanism, rating is not objective, and tracking is not timely also rating methods are backward. Therefore, with the development of big data and other technologies, it is urgent to study credit risk supervision methods suitable for the domestic bond market. On the basis of combing the development of domestic bond market and analyzing the current situation of domestic credit rating, this paper combines the results of theoretical research at home and abroad, the information available in the domestic market, big data mining and automation technology, based on the financial and stock exchange information of listed companies, combined with BS option pricing theory, constructs KMV model.

Portfolio optimization of credit risky bonds: a semi-Markov process approach

This article presents a semi-Markov process based approach to optimally select a portfolio consisting of credit risky bonds. The criteria to optimize the credit portfolio is based on l∞-norm risk measure and the proposed optimization model is formulated as a linear programming problem. The input parameters to the optimization model are rate of returns of bonds which are obtained using credit ratings assuming that credit ratings of bonds follow a semi-Markov process. Modeling credit ratings by semi-Markov processes has several advantages over Markov chain models, i.e., it addresses the ageing effect present in the credit rating dynamics. The transition probability matrices generated by semi-Markov process and initial credit ratings are used to generate rate of returns of bonds. The empirical performance of the proposed model is analyzed using the real data. Further, comparison of the proposed approach with the Markov chain approach is performed by obtaining the efficient frontiers for the two models.

CSR in the bond market: Pricing stakeholders and the moderating role of the institutional context

This study examines the impact of corporate social performance (CSP) on the spreads and credit ratings of corporate bonds on a global scale. The relationship is examined within the national legal and institutional environment and with regard to specific stakeholder practices. We construct and use a unique longitudinal, international dataset with a total of 5280 bond issues dating from 2003 to 2018 and spanning 40 countries worldwide.We provide evidence that more responsible firms benefit from lower bond spreads and improved bond ratings, while a higher degree of CSR-related controversies penalizes firms on both dimensions. Various, but not all, stakeholder relationships appear to generate a significant impact on spreads and bond ratings, with shareholders remaining crucial in both civil and common law countries, opposite to literature findings so far. Corporate governance is corroborated as a primary concern also in the debt market for common law economies, while societal stakeholders assume significance for civil law systems. Finally, findings highlight that stronger regulation and government involvement do not further promote the role of CSP in the debt market. On the other hand, free public criticism and media scrutiny generate a more pronounced effect of CSP on bond pricing providing support for the rewards associated with voluntary and proactive CSR.

Earnings Management, Analyst Forecasts and Credit Rating of Corporate Bond: Empirical Evidences from Chinese Listed Companies

Bond credit rating is a comprehensive evaluation by credit rating agencies on the credit records, financial status and operating results of bond issuing companies. Because of information asymmetry, bond credit rating is influenced by information disclosed by companies through earnings management and information forecasted by analysts as an independent third party. Based on 311 samples of Chinese listed companies which issued bonds for the first time from 2011 to 2017, this paper studied the relationships among company earnings management, analyst forecasts and credit rating of corporate bonds. Our empirical results show that, in order to improve the bond credit rating, company managers do have some earnings management behaviors before bond issuing, and the extent of earnings management is positively correlated with its bond rating. We also find that the forecasted corporate rating by analysts is positively correlated with its bond rating, and analyst forecasts cannot restrain the impact of earnings management on bond rating and does not exclude the collusion with corporate management. Earnings management and analysts forecast and have certain mutual promotion effect on bond credit rating. The conclusions of this paper are conducive to information regulates and stakeholder decisions.

债券通的实施对债券信用评级的影响研究

债券通的实施对债券信用评级的影响研究

시장유동성 위험과 회사채 신용등급

시장유동성 위험과 회사채 신용등급

Proximity to broad bond rating change and employee performance

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the employee performance of firms with a plus or minus specification in their bond credit ratings (i.e. firms near a broad bond rating change) because prior research suggests that these borderline firms demonstrate different behavior, relative to firms that are not near a broad bond rating change.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use regression analysis to test the research question.FindingsThe authors posit and find that employees work harder when their firms are borderline in the context of bond credit ratings. The authors obtain similar results using firms on the Standard and Poor’s CreditWatch list. The authors also find that the results become stronger for firms with higher ability managers or when firms are faced with a more volatile business environment.Originality/valueThe results suggest that managers of these borderline firms have stronger incentives to improve employee performance. The study contributes to the large research stream on bond rating in finance literature and the research stream on employee performance in management and accounting literature. Specifically, our findings not only strengthen the notion in Kisgen (2006) that borderline companies often show different behavior, compared to average companies, but also can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of employee performance. The study, to the authors’ knowledge, is one of the few empirical studies that directly examine the employee behavior (i.e. performance) when their firms are at the borderline in the context of bond credit ratings.

Managerial ability and bond rating changes

AbstractThis study examines the relation between managerial ability and bond credit rating changes. We attempt to add to the credit rating agency literature by exploring the role managerial ability plays in the initial bond rating assignments and in rating changes. We predict firms with more‐able managers are more likely to have higher bond ratings and to be more able to have a positive influence on rating changes. We find a significant and positive relation between managerial ability and change in credit ratings, suggesting that more‐able managers can take effective actions to improve their credit ratings.

The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

AbstractThis paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.

Moral Hazard Effects of Corporate Bond Guarantee Purchases: Empirical Evidence from China

This study examines corporate bond guarantees by developing a theoretical model that decomposes the overall impact of a guarantee into signalling and incentive effects and presenting empirical evidence based on data from China’s corporate bond market. Our empirical research yields considerable evidence for the effects we posit in the model and provides some important insights into the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in China’s bond market. The empirical evidence shows that the bond issuer with lower credit rating are more willing to purchase a bond guarantee and guaranteed bonds have a higher issue spread yield than those non-guaranteed bonds, even though both have the same bond credit rating. Our findings suggest that moral hazard would be better than adverse selection to explain the self- selection of bond guarantees. Prior to bond issuance credit rating signal provides a mechanism to mitigate information inequality, while bond guarantees relieve information asymmetry afterwards.

Incentive and constraint regulations of rating inflation in collusion over the separation of economic cycles - Markov rating shopping dual reputation model.

Economic cycles may lead to changes in corporate bond credit ratings. This paper utilizes the Markov model to describe transition probability matrixes of economic states for the separation of economic cycles. We develop a new model, which we term the Markov rating shopping dual reputation model, incorporating two reputation effects. This model is well suited to analyze the conditions of the dual rating incentive regulation and the constraint regulation for preventing rating inflation in collusion among credit rating agencies. Then, we apply the Markov regime switching-vector auto-regression (MS-VAR) to estimate the transition probability matrixes of America, England, Japan and China. Based on the numerical analysis and the simulations, the results show that a dual rating regulation can prevent the collusion of inflated ratings, as well as increased rating fees with the separation of economic cycles; additionally, when separating the economic cycles, a constraint regulation is more effective at reducing the risk of rating inflation in collusion and regulatory cost.

Environmental inefficiency and bond credit rating

This study examines the impact of a firm’s polluting activities (measured as environmental inefficiency) on the firm’s bond credit rating. We posit that firms with excessive polluting activities (i.e., a high level of environmental inefficiency) receive low bond ratings because prior research links pollution reduction to better firm performance and outcomes. Using a 29-year panel sample with 4969 firm-year observations (representing 310 unique firms) from 1987 to 2015, we find a significant negative relation between environmental inefficiency and bond ratings. Our results still hold after a battery of robustness checks. In addition, we find that our results are largely driven by firms that are not near a broad bond rating change (i.e., firms without a plus or minus specification in their bond ratings).

Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles

Excessive borrowing of local governments in China sparked concerns that the debt may threaten the financial stability of the economy and ultimately cause economic collapse. It becomes critically important to understand the credit rating of China’s local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds and the association between the yields, credit ratings, and bond characteristics under this circumstance. We use a complete pooled data set of 771 LGFV bond issues from 1999 to 2011 and OLS and two-stage-least-squares regressions to examine how credit ratings might affect LGFV bond yields and an ordered probit model to study the determinants of credit ratings. The main findings are: (1) bond characteristic variables, such as duration and guarantee, matter in determining yields though credit rating plays a major role in determining yields of LGFV bond issues; (2) bond issue size and bond type are the main determinants of LGFV bond credit ratings, while the bond issuer characteristics have little explanatory power; (3) at least in Eastern China, smaller credit rating agency tend to give better ratings after controlling for bond issuer and issue characteristics.

The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility on Cost of Corporate Bond: Evidence from China

ABSTRACTThis article examines the link between corporate social responsibility(CSR) and cost of bond(COB) in China. We find that there exists a negative relationship between CSR and COB. In particular, when the bond issuer is a state-owned enterprise, or when the credit rating of bond is high, the negative association between CSR and COB is strengthened. The findings indicate that CSR plays a significant role in reducing the risk premium of corporate bonds through an insurance-like effect. Moreover, the effect of CSR on COB also depends on contextual factors such as firm ownership and bond credit rating.

Pengaruh Corporate Hedging Terhadap Cost Of Debt

The ongoing globalization era is marked by free trade, will bring uncertainty to the Indonesian economy. These uncertainties include fluctuations of exchange rate, interest rates, and commodity prices. This will certainly pose risks, including financial risks that can increase the firm's cost of debt as a risk premium for investors. This study aims to determine the effect of hedging calculated using dummy variable to cost of debt proxies with yield spread. In addition, the bond age, credit rating, leverage, and profitability are used as control variables. The sample which used is manufacturing firm that issues bonds and is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2009-2015. The result of multiple linear regression shows that hedging has a significant negative effect on the cost of debt. Bond age and credit rating have a significant negative effect on cost of debt. Leverage has no significant positive effect on cost of debt. Profitability has no significant negative effect on cost of debt. Hedging lowers cost of debt through decreased bankruptcy costs, agency costs, and information asymmetry. So firms that use hedging will have a lower cost of debt than non-users.

An Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing on the Hedge Effectiveness of Korea Treasury Bond Futures

This paper performs the empirical analysis on the factors affection the hedge effectiveness of Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) Futures by different hedge models. Before analyzing the factors, firstly, we compare the hedge effectiveness for benchmark bond portfolio among different hedge models. We find that KTB Futures' hedge effectiveness do not produce significant difference depending on the different models. Secondly, we test hedge effectiveness for the corporate bond. The results vary depending on the credit ranks. Below BBB rating, hedge effectiveness deteriorated significantly. This seems to be caused by the fact that BBB rated bond is more prone to be affected by credit risk rather than interest rate risk. Thirdly, hedge effectiveness analysis for the maturity term mismatch, KTB Futures has performed poorly as underlying bond maturity mismatching with Futures. Finally, different yield curve shape, Futures price undervaluation or time to maturity of Futures do not produce significant effect for the hedge effectiveness. In summary hedge effectiveness of KTB Futures (3 Year, 10 Year) seems to be dominantly affected by the 1) underlying hedging bond credit rating and 2) hedge term mismatch. Other factors such as yield curve shape, undervaluation of Futures and time to maturity of Futures has limited contribution under our research.

Do bond credit ratings lead to excess comovement?

Abstract We investigate whether non-fundamental comovement results from investors using credit ratings to group assets into different “styles”. We find that bonds that join a new rating class start comoving more with the bonds in this class, even when fundamental factors suggest otherwise. We show that this comovement effect varies according to the nature of the bond considered, and the modalities of the rating action. Downgrades have a larger impact than upgrades, and rating reviews matter as much as actual movements. Finally, rating changes between grades BBB and BB, which lead bonds to be reclassified as either “high-yield” or “investment grade” assets, seem to be of particular importance.

Goodwill impairment loss and bond credit rating

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of goodwill impairment losses on bond credit ratings.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use regression analysis to examine the relationship between goodwill impairment losses and bond credit ratings.FindingsThe empirical results show a negative relationship between the amount of goodwill impairment losses and bond credit ratings, suggesting that firms with goodwill impairment losses receive lower credit ratings. The authors perform various additional tests, including subsamples in good or bad market time, changes analysis, first time goodwill impairment firms vs subsequent impairment and the two-stage least squares regression analysis to address potential endogeneity issues. The main results persist.Originality/valueThis paper links and contributes to two streams of literature: goodwill impairment in accounting literature and bond credit ratings in finance literature. Whether a firm’s goodwill impairment losses affect the firm’s bond credit rating remains an interesting question that has not been examined previously. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that directly examines the relationship between goodwill impairment losses and bond ratings at the firm level.