Biophysical Vulnerability Research Articles

Climate Change and Flood Vulnerability Analysis in the Narayani River of Nepal

Flood disasters annually devastate livelihoods, particularly during the monsoon season, with no apparent reduction in impacts in low-lying regions of developing countries like Nepal. Given the increasing effects of climate change globally, this study aims to assess climate change effects and biophysical vulnerability of riverine communities to floods in the Narayani River of Nepal, elucidating the interrelationship between these phenomena. This paper presents an analysis of trends and extreme events of climatological variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and daily river discharge and hazard mapping and risk assessments in the river stretch of two Village Development Committees (VDCs) in the country’s inner Terai region of Nawalparasi district for different return-period floods, with the aid of the HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System) and HEC-GeoRAS. A long-term climatological data was collected from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu, and the analysis was performed using statistical softwares, SigmaStat, and SigmaPlot. In addition, flood conditions representing 2, and 100-year periods were determined using Gumbel’s distribution. The study revealed a narrowing temperature range, with increasing minimum temperatures and decreasing maximum temperatures, precipitation, and river discharge. However, there was a notable increase in extreme events. The hazard mapping indicated the people’s vulnerability to inundation and soil erosion along the low-lying riverbanks. The findings underscore the necessity for reliable technological and socio-economic vulnerability mapping to provide early warnings to at-risk populations. This paper argues that unplanned and mismanaged settlements in riverine areas may lead to population displacements, creating environmental refugees.

Formation of a territory: the production process of the urban space of São Bernardo do Campo/SP

This article presents some aspects that guided the dynamics of the process of urban occupation of the protection spaces in the springs of the Billings Dam. In this region, the connection between the accelerated process of industrialization, disorderly urbanization, and the increase in population concentration over the years, devoid of adequate actions of planning and territorial ordering, contributed to the intensification of socio-spatial inequalities sustained by a pattern of exploitation and dilapidation of uses and degradation of ecosystems. From this framework, it analysed the occupation of the urban territory of São Bernardo do Campo, especially about the influence of industrialization, disorderly urbanization, and occupation of environmentally fragile areas, as well as sought to contextualize the need for new mechanisms of territorial planning and management to mitigate and reverse the high levels of biophysical vulnerability existing in the fragile spaces of protection of water sources. The approach adopted involved the analysis of data and information from various sources, such as previous studies, technical reports, municipal plans, and other relevant publications. It is hoped that the results found can subsidize the development of new studies, as well as contribute to the formulation of urban and environmental public policies.

Perspectives on factors that influence local communities’ vulnerability to coastal floods in Ketu South Municipality of Ghana

Vulnerability studies in relation to coastal floods in Ghana have generally focused on assessing the biophysical vulnerability and flood hazard modelling - rather than exploring the combination of both biophysical and socioeconomic factors that affect the vulnerability of coastal communities to floods. In response, this study aimed to explore the factors that influence the vulnerability of coastal communities in Ketu South Municipality, Ghana, to floods. These communities remain vulnerable to coastal flood events from storm surges, high tidal waves, lagoon overflow and heavy rainfall. However, the local conditions that make these communities vulnerable is poorly understood. The study used data from eight (8) in-depth interviews, nine (9) Focus Group Discussions and 354-household survey to explore local vulnerability factors in the study area. Results show that factors such as low land elevation, inadequate sea defence structures, high flood frequency, large flood extent, long flood duration, flood impacts, are among the exposure factors influencing vulnerability in the study area. It also shows that socioeconomic factors; such as weak demographic groups, low-income levels, low level of education, and some local adaptation measures plus external flood relief supports from National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO) influence the vulnerability of the communities. The result further revealed salt production activities, and relocating to flood prone areas, as well as rise in coastal water table and rapid shoreline erosion are the observable vulnerability factors in the study area whiles gender was a significant social factor influencing flood preparedness. These results can be useful for flood disaster management programs.

2.98 Suicide Attempts Increase the Risk of Long-Term Morbidity Among Adolescent Girls: A Longitudinal Matched-Cohort Study

Childhood and adolescence are sensitive periods in health development. Teens who attempt suicide may face psychosocial and biophysical vulnerability, increasing their risk of chronic morbidity later in life. We examined the association between suicide attempts before 20 years of age with the risk of morbidity later in life among adolescent women.

Integrated socio-environmental vulnerability assessment of coastal hazards using data-driven and multi-criteria analysis approaches

Coastal hazard vulnerability assessment has been centered around the multi-variate analysis of geo-physical and hydroclimate data. The representation of coupled socio-environmental factors has often been ignored in vulnerability assessment. This study develops an integrated socio-environmental Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), which simultaneously combines information from five vulnerability groups: biophysical, hydroclimate, socio-economic, ecological, and shoreline. Using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, two CVI (CVI-50 and CVI-90) have been developed based on average and extreme conditions of the factors. Each CVI is then compared to a data-driven CVI, which is formed based on Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA). Both MCDM and PPCA have been tied into geospatial analysis to assess the natural hazard vulnerability of six coastal counties in South Carolina. Despite traditional MCDM-based vulnerability assessments, where the final index is estimated based on subjective weighting methods or equal weights, this study employs an entropy weighting technique to reduce the individuals’ biases in weight assignment. Considering the multivariate nature of the coastal vulnerability, the validation results show both CVI-90 and PPCA preserve the vulnerability results from biophysical and socio-economic factors reasonably, while the CVI-50 methods underestimate the biophysical vulnerability of coastal hazards. Sensitivity analysis of CVIs shows that Charleston County is more sensitive to socio-economic factors, whereas in Horry County the physical factors contribute to a higher degree of vulnerability. Findings from this study suggest that the PPCA technique facilitates the high-dimensional vulnerability assessment, while the MCDM approach accounts more for decision-makers' opinions.

Mechanosurveillance of tumour metastasis.

Tello-Lafoz et al. find that the increased rigidity of cancer cells during metastasis can result in a biophysical vulnerability to killing by cytotoxic lymphocytes through a form of mechanosurveillance.

Mechanosurveillance of tumour metastasis.

New research published in Immunity suggests that the increased rigidity of cancer cells during metastasis can result in a biophysical vulnerability to killing by cytotoxic lymphocytes through a form of mechanosurveillance.

Cytotoxic lymphocytes target characteristic biophysical vulnerabilities in cancer

Immune cells identify and destroy tumors by recognizing cellular traits indicative of oncogenic transformation. In this study, we found that myocardin-related transcription factors (MRTFs), which promote migration and metastatic invasion, also sensitize cancer cells to the immune system. Melanoma and breast cancer cells with high MRTF expression were selectively eliminated by cytotoxic lymphocytes in mouse models of metastasis. This immunosurveillance phenotype was further enhanced by treatment with immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) antibodies. We also observed that high MRTF signaling in human melanoma is associated with ICB efficacy in patients. Using biophysical and functional assays, we showed that MRTF overexpression rigidified the filamentous actin cytoskeleton and that this mechanical change rendered mouse and human cancer cells more vulnerable to cytotoxic T lymphocytes and natural killer cells. Collectively, these results suggest that immunosurveillance has a mechanical dimension, which we call mechanosurveillance, that is particularly relevant for the targeting of metastatic disease.

The role of crowdsourced data, participatory decision-making and mapping of flood related events

This study examines the effectiveness of a crowdsourced participatory Geoweb data reporting application, known as SeeClickFix, related to flood events in the context of socioeconomic and biophysical vulnerabilities. Empirical data analysis to determine the socio-spatial characteristics of flood-related reporting trends between 2013 and 2017 from four diverse neighborhoods highlights two important capabilities of crowdsourced data i) identify unique problems experienced by diverse communities and thus address marginalization in managing flood related problems and ii) identify the patterns in types of problems experienced by neighborhoods characterized by divergent socioeconomic and biophysical vulnerabilities. Further, analysis of adoption rates of SeeClickFix in the context of neighborhood characteristics provides valuable insights into the scope of voluntary geographic information (VGI) and its potential role in participatory decision-making. Results indicate that problems of standing water/mosquito complaints are the majority of flood related reports in a high socioeconomic status and biophysically vulnerable neighborhoods, while stormwater infrastructure dominates repeated reports in socioeconomically vulnerable area, suggesting inadequate maintenance of critical infrastructures. Finally, the early adoption of the app and steady increase of reports in poorer neighborhoods during the study period indicates that crowdsourcing of data through a participatory Geoweb has the potential to give voice to marginalized communities and foster transparency.

Systems Thinking for Sustainability

A sustainability framework based on nested adaptive socio-ecological systems is used to analyse historical examples of soil erosion and its implications for food production and security for a growing population. While there are examples of innovation in agriculture to address food availability, there are also cases of inadequate social responses leading to famine. The analysis highlights the value of considering these issues in a framework of linked biophysical and socio-economic systems. The socio-economic system generates management interventions to resolve biophysical limitations such as soil depletion on food production. The socio-economic system is also responsible when there are inadequate social responses. Currently, the biophysical system produces enough food to feed the world population. However, food distribution through the socio-economic system results in increasing numbers of undernourished people. Biophysical system modelling indicates that unless major changes are made to the current world system, overshoot because of resource depletion will lead to system collapse within the 21st century. To develop sustainability strategies, we need to analyse the socio-economic response to this biophysical vulnerability. A socio-ecological analysis also indicates that perspectives based on power relations that govern real-world decision making rather than sustainability interventions to address food security, need to be incorporated.

Tale of two neighbourhoods: biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in Pinellas County, Florida

ABSTRACT Defining vulnerability and identifying vulnerable areas and populations is critical to climate adaptation and resilience. Neighbourhoods are not homogeneous in terms of their socio-economic and physical vulnerability to flooding and other climate related impacts resulting in diverse challenges. Working with communities to better identify their concerns, liabilities, and strengths in the face of climate challenges will help build resiliency for all residents of the Tampa Bay area. This research identifies the weaknesses in knowledge, preparedness and ability to adapt in two communities in Pinellas County, Florida: examining a neighbourhood that is socio-economically vulnerable and a neighbourhood that experiences only physical (locational) vulnerability. We also identify opportunities for inclusive disaster planning, climate adaptation plans and to increase resiliency through long-term interactions between residents, community leaders, and local officials.

A Combined Analysis of Sociological and Farm Management Factors Affecting Household Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Burundi

This paper analyzed the livelihood vulnerability of households in two communes using socio-economic data, where one site is a climate analogue of the other under expected future climate change. The analysis was undertaken in order to understand local variability in the vulnerability of communities and how it can be addressed so as to foster progress towards rural adaptation planning. The study identified sources of household livelihood vulnerability by exploring human and social capitals, thus linking the human subsystem with existing biophysical vulnerability studies. Selected relevant variables were used in Factor Analysis on Mixed Data (FAMD), where the first eight dimensions of FAMD contributed most variability to the data. Clustering was done based on the eight dimensions, yielding five clusters with a mix of households from the two communes. Results showed that Cluster 3 was least vulnerable due to a greater proportion of households having adopted farming practices that enhance food and water availability. Households in the other clusters will need to make appropriate changes to reduce their vulnerability. Findings show that when analyzing rural vulnerability, rather than broadly looking at spatial climatic and farm management differences, social factors should also be investigated, as they can exert significant policy implications.

Modelling biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change: A case study in the eastern Australian wheat belt

Abstract Assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can identify knowledge gaps and direct where adaptation options are required. However, determining the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change is a challenge due to the complex nature of the problem. We propose a climate-crop modelling approach illustrated by using the APSIM crop model forced with daily climate data as a case study in eastern Australia to assess the biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change. This impact assessment is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s definition of vulnerability as a derivative of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We selected one Global Climate Model (GCM) CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 representing dry conditions under high emission scenarios to explore the feasibility of proposed methodology. Our results show that, historically, the most vulnerable areas were the western parts of the wheat belt, accounting for 18% of the total wheat-growing area. However, areas of very high vulnerability would expand to central and eastern parts of the wheat belt into the future, accounting for 41% of the study area in the 2040s and 62% in the 2080s. With increased exposure to dry climate, adjusting sowing time and cultivar shift consistently improved wheat yield but were insufficient to decrease wheat vulnerability. We found the key driver for increased vulnerability was increased exposure to dry climate. We expect this study will help growers, farm advisors and state policymakers to adopt relevant adaptation strategies and promote efficient farming practices such as breeding drought-tolerant crop cultivars in highly vulnerable western areas.

Place-Based Assessment of Intersection of Biophysical and Social Vulnerability to Flooding in Accra, Ghana

The relationship between flood hazards and social vulnerability is firmly on the intellectual agenda of geographers in Ghana. In an attempt to theorize and empirically examine this relationship, scholars have commonly followed a one-sided methodological strand. In this article, a triple-helix approach that relies on the application of social vulnerability index; mapping potential flood hazard zones; and examining degree of coincidence between flood hazards and social vulnerability, is used. Situating the analysis within Hazards-of-Place Model of Vulnerability, the study identifies spatial disparities in biophysical and social vulnerability within the City. It emerged that communities in the Ashiedu Keteke sub-metro were the most vulnerable based on the hazards-of-place model. Significantly, while flood risk awareness was very high among community members, the perception of flood risk management was poor. The study argues that understanding place-based vulnerability is crucial in mitigating the effect of hazards and building resilient communities.

Abstract 209: Metastatic colonization in the perivascular niche: A mechanotransduction perspective

Abstract Metastases are responsible for majority cancer related deaths. Disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) gain a diverse array of metastatic traits in order to adapt to and survive within different microenvironments, making them very difficult to therapeutically target. Remarkably, regardless of the secondary organ, DTCs survive and thrive in perivascular niches. Using xenograft and syngeneic models of metastasis in mouse, we found that upon extravasation, neuronal cell adhesion molecule L1 (L1CAM) expressed by DTCs engages the vascular basal lamina in order to amplify integrin β1 and integrin linked kinase (ILK) signaling in DTCs. ILK promotes actin polymerization for cell spreading and subsequent activation of mechanotransduction effector transcription factors YAP and MRTF. We found that activation of YAP and MRTF coincides with DTCs ability to dislodge resident pericytes from the perivascular niche and is an essential step in the metastatic colonization regardless of dormancy state. Therefore, these results provided us a unifying molecular mechanism that governs cancer progression from metastatic seeding to overt colonization. Ongoing studies will determine how mechanotransduction and pericyte-DTC interactions can be manipulated to prevent metastatic colonization by potentiating the immune response and exposing their biophysical vulnerabilities. Citation Format: Ekrem Emrah Er, Maria Tello-Lafoz, Jing Hu, Morgan Huse, Joan Massagué. Metastatic colonization in the perivascular niche: A mechanotransduction perspective [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 209.

Vulnerability and ecological footprint: a comparison between urban Taipei and rural Yunlin, Taiwan.

Climate change issues and adaptation strategies have drawn much attention from many fields in recent years. Taiwan, an island state, is deeply threatened by the multiple threats posed by climate change. However, different urban and rural areas have numerous adaptation approaches due to their differences in vulnerability. In Taipei City (urban), its biophysical vulnerability is mainly affected by flooded areas and high flood depths caused by landslides and heavy rains. Its social vulnerability is affected by economic development, high household assets, and population concentration. In Yunlin County (rural), its biophysical vulnerability is also affected by flooded areas and high flood depths caused by heavy rains. Its social vulnerability is affected by the elderly living alone, low household assets, and low healthcare. In order to propose appropriate adaptation strategies of urban and rural areas under different vulnerabilities, this study uses an overlapping method to examine the relationship between the integrated vulnerability (biophysical and social) of Taipei and Yunlin along with the ecological footprint (EF), a measurement of human demands for resources and ecological services. This study reviews the literature and uses Taiwan's NCDR (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction) data to analyze the biophysical vulnerability and the social vulnerability and further calculate the integrated vulnerability. In this study, questionnaire surveys were conducted. In Taipei, 446 valid questionnaires were collected, while 393 were collected in Yunlin. The results show that personal EF in Taipei is higher than that in Yunlin. In the end, this study elucidates the relationship between integrated vulnerability and personal EF of Taipei and Yunlin. Four types of risk areas in urban Taipei and rural Yunlin are sorted out (high vulnerability/high EF, high vulnerability/low EF, low vulnerability/high EF, and low vulnerability/low EF). The empirical results can be adopted by local governments, communities, and NGOs to establish appropriate strategies for mitigation and adaptation in the different risk areas.

Analysing drivers of vulnerability to flooding: a systems approach

ABSTRACTVulnerability to disasters is both dynamic and context-specific. Understanding the construction of vulnerability to disasters is important because the survival of communities is threatened. However, many vulnerability drivers are often hidden and remote from the triggering events; as such, they need to be analysed using approaches that unpack the non-linear interactions. A systems-thinking approach to examine the construction of vulnerability to flood disasters in Muzarabani district, Zimbabwe is used. Data was gathered from interviews, workshops, field observations and the 2012 census report. Biophysical vulnerability is driven by interacting factors including proximity to low-lying floodplain, interfluves and cyclonic path; flood recession agriculture; heavy erosion and siltation; and use of poor quality materials. Social vulnerability to flooding is propelled by a bundle of demographic and poor socio-economic conditions of the community that make the smallholder farmers succumb to flood impacts. None of those variables make the community vulnerable on its own. Rather, they are mutually inclusive, with each one reinforcing the other(s). Vulnerability to flooding in Muzarabani is thus not solely a function of changes in the rainfall pattern to which communities respond. Rather, it is a result of multiple interdependent physical and poor socio-economic variables involving non-linear relationships.

KERENTANAN SOSIAL EKONOMI DAN BIOFISIK DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI SOLO (Socio-economic and biophysical vulnerability of Solo Watershed)

Increasing degradation of a watershed ecosystem is a problem that needs to be resolved. Therefore, a study was conducted in order to determine the socio-economic and biophysical vulnerability of Solo watershed in relation to watershed management. This research was conducted in Solo Watershed. The collected data include primary and secondary data. The potential and vulnerability of socio-economic and biophysical were evaluated using the Formulation of Watershed level Characterization System. The results of the study showed that (1) the socio-economic of the whole Solo watershed classify as moderate category, with the highest vulnerable district was Wonogiri due to high population density and high land vulnerability, (2) land vulnerability for the whole Solo watershed is in the medium category, with the most vulnerable land category was in Madiun and upstream Solo sub-watersheds, (3) the most prominent flood vulnerability was in the downstream of Solo sub-watershed, (4) the typology of watershed management was classified as highly vulnerable because the territorial typology was in the very high vulnerable and the watershed typology was medium vulnerable. By knowing its vulnerability level, the rehabilitation program can be directed to areas with a high level of vulnerability.

Spatial Flood Vulnerability Assessment in Peninsular Malaysia using Data Envelopment Analysis (Dea)

Flood has caused an enormous negative impact on the environment and the population safety in Malaysia. Many areas are found to be vulnerable to flood due to heavy rainfall during monsoon seasons. However, not many studies were done to identify how vulnerable the prone areas are affected. This study focused on developing flood vulnerability measurement in Peninsular Malaysian states. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was applied on a set of secondary data consisting of several input and output variables across 11 years from 2004 to 2014. The flood vulnerability index for each dimension was computed based on three aspects of flood vulnerability dimensions, i.e. the Population Vulnerability, the Social Vulnerability and the Biophysical Vulnerability. The result showed that Johor was the most vulnerable state among all the states in Peninsular Malaysia in terms of the Population Vulnerability. Meanwhile, Kelantan was the most vulnerable state in the Social Vulnerability and Kedah was the most vulnerable state in the Biophysical Vulnerability. The assessment of flood vulnerability can provide multi-information that may well contribute to a deeper understanding of flood disaster scenario in Malaysia.

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers’ ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions.