Abstract
The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers’ ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions.
Highlights
Climate change threatens successful agriculture in the Southwest
Vulnerability assessments have been widely used for identifying solutions to the climatemediated challenges facing agricultural activities. Many of these draw upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conceptual model, where vulnerability is shown as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (McCarthy et al 2001; Fig. 1)
We reviewed potential impacts of climate change on cropland systems in the arid interior southwest U.S We presented a diagram to illustrate how contextual and biophysical factors interact to influence vulnerability and we used examples from three southwestern counties to demonstrate how the prominence of different factors varies with location and commodity
Summary
Climate change threatens successful agriculture in the Southwest. While all farming operations are likely to experience rising temperatures and changes in precipitation over the coming decades, the degree of negative (or positive) impact from a changing climate will vary according to location, crops grown, access to water, and other interacting biophysical factors (e.g., pests, pathogens, soil health). Vulnerability assessments have been widely used for identifying solutions to the climatemediated challenges facing agricultural activities Many of these draw upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conceptual model, where vulnerability is shown as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (McCarthy et al 2001; Fig. 1). External stress imposed on a system may come from many quarters besides climate change, including population growth, urban expansion, markets, government policies, and other formal and informal institutions (Turner et al 2003; O’Brien et al 2007). The central shaded area embodies the core biophysical components of the framework (including land and soil, water, and cropping systems), which are exposed to impacts from climate change, population growth, and urban expansion. Population growth and urban development are included in the core part of the framework, because in some southwestern locations, these variables are as important as climate change impacts (see Section 2.2).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
