Biofuel Prices Research Articles

Foods, Fuels or Finances: Which Prices Matter for Biofuels?

We examine co-movements between biofuels and a wide range of commodities and assets in the US, Europe, and Brazil. We analyze a unique dataset of 33 commodities and relevant assets (between 2003 and 2016) which is unprecedented in the biofuels literature. We combine the minimum spanning trees correlation filtration to detect the most important connections of the broad analyzed system with continuous wavelet analysis which allows for studying dynamic connections between biofuels and relevant commodities and assets and their frequency characteristics as well. We confirm that for the Brazilian and US ethanol, their respective feed-stock commodities lead the prices of biofuels, and not vice versa. This dynamics remains qualitatively unchanged when controlling for the influence of crude oil prices. As opposed to the Brazilian and US ethanol, the European biodiesel exhibits only moderate ties to its production factors. We show that financial factors do not significantly interact with biofuel prices.

Total Use of Microalgae as Feedstock for Biodiesel and Pellet Production

Microalgae are one of the most promising feedstock for the biofuels production. However, high cost associated with the different stages involved in the transformation process is one cause of uncompetitiveness price of biofuels, compared with fossil fuels like diesel oil or gasoline. In this research, the potential of Chlorella Vulgaris microalgae for the production of two fuels, biodiesel and stove pellets, has been analyzed. Results showed that an efficient harvesting of algal biomass was achieved using inorganic flocculants, especially Aluminium chloride (AlCl3) which achieved more than 95 % biomass recovery. Moreover, data obtained demonstrated that simultaneous application of microwaves and ultrasounds extracted more than twice lipids than only ultrasounds. Biodiesel conversions between 12 and 27 % based on dry weight, were reached. Additionally, the algal residue generated in biodiesel production process has been used for making stove pellets. The analysis of their properties corroborated that algal pellets can be used as fuel in biomass stoves.

Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches

In recent years, Thailand Government has made ambitious targets for biofuels and the demand for biofuels has increased. This study estimates the long-term factors that affect the supply and demand for biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) in Thailand by developing a theoretical model based on simultaneous equations, using Two stage least square and Three stage least square approaches. Quarterly data were collected for the years 2007–2013:2. Amongst many factors, we found three major factors affecting the long-term demand for biofuels: the price of biofuels, the real gross domestic product and the number of vehicles. On the other hand, the long-run supply of biodiesel and bioethanol was influenced by the gross domestic product, the cost of substitution using biofuel (i.e., price of gasoline 95 compared to blended gasoline) and the price of biodiesel. These findings have important policy implications to the government plans for biofuel development, suggesting that maintaining the price difference between gasoline and gasohol (blended gasoline) and a greater penetration of biofuel vehicles in fleet would be important policies for biofuel consumption. On biofuel supply side, results indicate that policies to compensate the biofuel producers for prices and reducing cost of bio-fuel production are important.

에탄올 유기용매 전처리를 이용한 옥수수대의 효소당화

새로운 수송용 에너지자원으로 각광받는 바이오매스의 효율적인 당화를 위한 전처리방법이 연구되고 있다. 최근 바이오매스의 에너지 전환 공정 중 전처리 비용이 높은 비중을 차지하고 있으며 이중 폐수처리가 커다란 문제점으로 지적되고 있다. 따라서 폐수발생을 줄이고 재사용이 용이한 유기용매(Organosolv)를 이용한 전처리를 수행하였으며, 전처리 바이오매스의 잔류 고형물의 양과 제거된 성분의 양을 이용하여 바이오매스의 전처리 효과를 효소당화를 통해 알아보았다. 전처리에 사용한 유기용매로는 99.5 wt% 에탄올을 사용하였고, 초본계 바이오매스인 옥수수대(corn stover)를 이용하여 전처리 하였다. 전처리 효과는 <TEX>$130{\sim}190^{\circ}C$</TEX> 조건에서 시간대별로 진행하여 전처리된 바이오매스의 효소당화를 통하여 확인하였다. 효소당화결과로 가장 높은 글루코오스 당화율을 보였던 전처리 온도는 <TEX>$190^{\circ}C$</TEX>에서 반응시간 70분 이상의 조건 이였으며, 이 때 68% 이상의 당화율을 얻을 수 있었다. 또한 전처리 바이오매스의 잔류 고형물(Solid remaining)은 70% 이상이었고, 대부분의 셀룰로오스(Cellulose)와 헤미셀룰로오스(Hemicellulose)의 손실이 미비하여 대부분의 당 성분을 회수할 수 있다는 장점을 보였다. This study is for the effective pretreatment and saccharification of lignocellulosic biomass for a transport fuel receiving attention. The waste water during the pretreatment of biomass is major factor for determining the price of biofuel. Therefore, we conducted high concentration of organosolv pretreatment for decline waste water and reusing the solvent. We confirmed effect of organosolv pretreatment by components analysis and enzymatic hydrolysis of pretreated biomass. The corn stover was used for and 99.5 wt% of ethanol as a organosolv pretreatment. The pretreatment condition was varied 130 to <TEX>$190^{\circ}C$</TEX> during the designated reaction times and the effect of pretreatment was investigated by enzymatic hydrolysis. The highest glucose conversion was more than 68% the pretreatment condition of <TEX>$190^{\circ}C$</TEX> for 70 min or more. The solid remaining was more than 70% and almost of cellulose and hemicellulose were survived.

Land requirements, feedstock haul distance, and expected profit response to land use restrictions for switchgrass production

Energy crop production has been proposed for land of poor quality to avoid competition with food production and negative indirect land use consequences. The objective of this study was to determine the land area requirements, biomass transportation distance, and expected profit consequences of restricting switchgrass biomass production, for use as biofuel feedstock, to marginal land relative to unrestricted land use. The USA soils capability classification system was used to differentiate between high quality land and land of marginal quality. Fifty years of historical weather data were used in combination with a biophysical simulation model to estimate switchgrass biomass yield distributions for land of different quality for counties in the case study region. A mathematical programming model was designed and solved to determine the economic consequences. For the levels of biofuel price considered ($0.50, $0.75 and $1.00/L), and a 262.5ML/year biorefinery modeled, restricting land use to marginally productive capability Class IV soils, increases the quantity of land optimally leased by 42 to 52%; increases biomass trucking total transportation distance by 115 to 116%; and reduces the expected net returns by $11 to $15M/year compared to when land use is unrestricted. In the absence of government restrictions, for-profit companies are not likely to limit energy crop production to land of marginal quality.

A cleaner and greener fuel: Biofuel blend formulation and emission assessment

Biofuel is an attractive vehicular fuel option for the transportation sector. Diverse biofuel blends can be produced from biomass. Complexity arises when optimum biofuel blends need to be designed to comply with fuel regulation standards as well as generate less emission. This paper discusses an integrated computational and experimental technique to design economically viable and environmentally friendly tailor-made biofuel blends from palm biomass that is abundant in Malaysia. An experimental based trial-and-error method is time consuming and uses up resources. Computational approaches adopt a systematic blend formulation methodology that assists focused experimental work. The biofuel design problem has been formulated as a Non-Linear Program to satisfy specified target properties such as density, kinematic viscosity, cetane number, gross calorific value, distillation temperature, and sulphur content. Target properties predicted through mixture property models were experimentally validated according to ASTM standard test methods. Five optimum tailor-made biofuel blend formulations were generated based on cost, gross calorific value and emission limitations. The result indicates that biofuel blends with butyl levulinate could increase the price of biofuel up to 80% from the retail price of B5 diesel. However, cleaner biofuel with less cost and highest calorific value can be achieved for biofuel blends that contain B5 diesel, butanol and ethanol. The application of this model yields about 26% CO2 emission reduction and about 22% less sulphur content as well as comply with the EN590 fuel regulation standard.

Analyzing Economic and Environmental Performance of Switchgrass Biofuel Supply Chains

This study optimized the net present value (NPV) of profit of various switchgrass-based ethanol supply chains and estimated associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in west Tennessee. Three configurations of feedstock harvesting and storage, including a large round baler system, a large square baler system, and a chopping/densification system, were evaluated. A mixed-integer mathematical programming model incorporating high-resolution spatial data was used to determine the optimal locations and capacities of cellulosic ethanol plants and feedstock preprocessing facilities, and associated feedstock-draw areas by maximizing the NPV of profit over 20 years. The optimized outputs were then used to estimate the GHG emissions produced in the biofuel supply chain (BSC) per year. The study shows that BSC configurations have important implications for the economic and environmental performance of the system. The harvest and storage configurations affect the locations of conversion and preprocessing facilities, and associated feedstock-draw areas, hence impacting the cost and emissions of both feedstock and biofuels transportation. The findings suggest the BSC system that harvests feedstock with forage choppers and utilizes stretch-wrap balers to increase feedstock density has the highest NPV of profit. The BSC system that uses large square balers for harvest and storage emits the lowest amount of GHGs per year. In addition, the sensitivity analysis suggests that biofuel price and scaling factor of facility capital was influential to the economics of BSC systems. The breakeven price of biofuel for the three BSCs was around $0.97 L−1.

Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of wastewater-based algal biofuel production: A case study

Combining algae cultivation and wastewater treatment for biofuel production is considered the feasible way for resource utilization. An updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis method that integrates resources availability into techno-economic analysis was employed to evaluate the wastewater-based algal biofuel production with the consideration of wastewater treatment improvement, greenhouse gases emissions, biofuel production costs, and coproduct utilization. An innovative approach consisting of microalgae cultivation on centrate wastewater, microalgae harvest through flocculation, solar drying of biomass, pyrolysis of biomass to bio-oil, and utilization of co-products, was analyzed and shown to yield profound positive results in comparison with others. The estimated break even selling price of biofuel ($2.23/gallon) is very close to the acceptable level. The approach would have better overall benefits and the internal rate of return would increase up to 18.7% if three critical components, namely cultivation, harvest, and downstream conversion could achieve breakthroughs.

Stakeholders' perceptions on challenges and opportunities for biodiesel and bioethanol policy development in Thailand

Thailand is Southeast Asia's largest promoter of biofuels. Although, Thailand promotes the use of biofuels, it has yet to achieve its policy targets. This paper focuses on the first generation biofuel development in Thailand and examines the perceptions of seven stakeholder groups to guide further policy development. These stakeholders were feedstock producers, biofuel producers, government agencies, car manufacturers, oil companies, non-profit organizations and end users. It combines a Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) framework with an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework and a TOWS Matrix for analysis of stakeholder's perceptions to propose priorities for policy development. Five policies were of high priority for development of biofuel. These are: (1) promoting biofuel production and use in long term through government policies, (2) revising government regulations to allow sale of biofuel products to other domestic industries while keeping retail prices of blended biofuels below those of regular ethanol and biodiesel, (3) improving farm management and promoting contract farming, (4) expanding cultivation area and yield without affecting food production and environmental sustainability, and (5) balancing biofuel feedstock use between the food and energy industries.

A Proposed Integrated Sustainability Model for a Bioenergy System

The usage of bioenergy is expected to increase for at least ten more years in the U.S. owing to its environmental benefits relative to petroleum. Growing biomass, converting it to a biofuel (e.g., corn ethanol), and using the biofuel has consequences related to the three dimensions of sustainability: economy, environment, and society. An integrated sustainability model (ISM) using system dynamics is developed for bioenergy systems to understand how changes in bioenergy production influence environmental measures, economic development, and social impacts. Predictions, such as greenhouse gas emissions, biofuel price, and employment, can be made for a given temporal and spatial scale.

Glycerolysis of Glycerol Carbonate from Crude Glycerol for Synthesis of Polyurethane

10% by weight of crude glycerol is produced during biofuel fermentation process, which has impacted the price of biofuel due to impurity content. In addition, the government’s regulations have prohibited the usage of crude glycerol as fuel source due to the emission of hazardous gases. This study provides the insight study of the properties and source of crude glycerol that can be converted into glycerol carbonate by glycerolysis process, where the particular glycerol carbonate is used as catalyst for synthesizing of polyurethane polymer that has a number of applications in real life. Glycerolysis process of glycerol carbonate using Pro-II 9.3 simulator is proposed and is feasible for implementation that would effectively utilize crude glycerol that is abundant in biodiesel market.

Asymmetric price volatility transmission between food and energy markets: The case of Spain

AbstractThe proportion of agricultural production that is being transformed into biofuels has been growing worldwide over the last decade. This has spurred the food versus fuel debate. This article aims at shedding light on this issue by studying price volatility relationships between food and biofuel prices in Spain. We use an asymmetric MGARCH model to evaluate volatility spillovers between the Spanish biodiesel blend and refined sunflower oil prices. Empirical results confirm that there are bidirectional and asymmetric volatility spillovers between these two prices.

All biomass is local: The cost, volume produced, and global warming impact of cellulosic biofuels depend strongly on logistics and local conditions

AbstractCurrent models of cellulosic biofuel systems require that the delivered price of the cellulosic biomass feedstock be kept low. Thus the predicted biorefinery size is relatively small, limiting potential economies of scale. However, it is actually the ultimate selling price of the biofuel that largely determines market penetration. We relaxed the constraint of low delivered feedstock price and explored the resulting effects on biofuel price, biofuel volume produced, and global warming impact (GWI). Feedstock price greatly affects the feedstock supply chains that may develop. Increased feedstock price does not affect the final ethanol selling price very much, but higher feedstock prices greatly increase the amount of ethanol produced. Farmers will supply much more cellulosic biomass at higher feedstock prices, leading to shorter transportation distances with reduced transportation costs and enabling larger biorefineries with improved economies of scale, thereby reducing the ethanol selling price.The cellulosic feedstock supply chain systems were studied as a function of feedstock prices by determining potential feedstock supply clusters and the maximum capacity of cellulosic biorefineries across the United States. Supply clusters were determined by minimizing costs associated with ethanol production. The analysis is based on county‐level cellulosic feedstock production data projected in the US Billion‐Ton Update report. Each biomass supply cluster is unique in terms of local and regional characteristics (e.g. area, feedstock types), biorefinery capacity, ethanol selling price, and GWI. Very large‐scale biorefineries (≥20 000 dry Mg day−1) may be feasible in some regions. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd

Food–energy nexus in Europe: Price volatility approach

The literature on food–biofuel price volatility spillovers is growing. Published articles so far have widely ignored nonlinearities and the influence of exogenous variables on volatility patterns. This article allows for these issues when characterizing EU biodiesel industry price dynamics. While Brazilian and US ethanol markets have been thoroughly investigated, less attention has been paid to EU biodiesel markets. Pure EU biodiesel and rapeseed oil prices are the object of our research. Two different methods are applied to model these data: a parametric approach and Long et al.'s (2011) semiparametric approach. Empirical results suggest significant asymmetries in volatility spillovers between pure biodiesel and rapeseed oil prices. Rapeseed stock levels and euro/dollar exchange rates are found to play a significant role in reducing food and biofuel price volatilities.

Economics and Uncertainty of Lignocellulosic Biofuel Production from Energy Cane and Sweet Sorghum in South Texas

Government support uncertainty, scarce yield information, and the inherent risk in bioeconomic phenomena are some of the deterrents faced by investors in the nascent cellulosic biofuel industry. A financial probabilistic model was developed to contrast the economic feasibility of producing cellulosic biofuels from energy cane and sweet sorghum using three technologies: hydrolysis, pyrolysis, and gasification. Hydrolysis and pyrolysis proved feasible (showed possibilities of a positive net present value) without government support and conditioned to stochastic feedstock yields and biofuel prices. Gasification was feasible with government support. Improved feedstock and biofuel productivity would considerably raise the feasibility probabilities for hydrolysis and pyrolysis without government support.

The Price and Welfare Effects of Biofuel Mandates and Subsidies

The coordination of agricultural, environmental and energy policies requires a thorough understanding of the interactions between crop, food and energy markets. This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the interactions and to evaluate the price and welfare effect of biofuel mandates and subsidies. Results suggest that biofuel mandates are a primary cause of some of the major concerns associated with crop-based biofuel production, including higher food prices and lower consumer welfare. The price and welfare effects of biofuel subsidies depend on the level of the biofuel mandate. When the mandate is weak or not binding, a biofuel subsidy becomes a transfer from consumers to biofuel producers, which tends to reduce food and fuel prices because of the negative income effect. However, with a strong mandate, a biofuel subsidy will increase the prices of crops, food, and fuel when crops account for a large share of production cost and when the supply of crops is inelastic. Using parameter values consistent with empirical evidence found in the U.S., we calculated the price and welfare effects of the biofuel mandates and subsidies specified in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Results suggest that the biofuel mandates and subsidies increased the price of corn by 25–40 %, increased the price of food by 1.5–2.5 %, and lowered the price of gasoline by 5–10 %. Overall, the biofuel policies had only a small effect on consumer utility.

Kajian Keterlibatan Masyarakat Desa Hutan Mengembangkan Silvoindustri Biofuel Nyamplung (Calophyllum Inophyllum L) Berkelanjutan

Energy self sufficient village program aims to improve stock and diverse energy sources and society economic opportunity. Nyamplung is very potential plant to be used as raw material of biofuel because it has very high fat content and does not use for food. The biofuel from nyamplung is a new innovation. Involvement of forest village community in biofuel industry development both as producers and consumers is very important. Forestry Research and Development Agency has established demonstration plots in Buluagung and Patutrejo villages as a facilitation in developing biofuel nyamplung silvoindustry. Up to now, the demplots still faces several problems. The survey method was used to collect data from selected 62 respondents using purposive sampling. Data were collected using questionnaires, field obsevation, and in-depth interview. Focus group discussion was used to confirm the data from the respondents. Data were analysed using rank-Spearman correlation and supported by qualitative analysis. Research results show that the demplots have not been developed through participatory approach. Involvement of community to demplots activity is low. Involvement of the village communities are significantly correlated to biofuel price, technology innovation, role of demplot and support from local leaders.

IMPLEMENTATION OF DEMONSTRATION PLOTS DME NYAMPLUNG (Calophyllum inophyllum L) IN BULUAGUNG AND PATUTREJO VILLAGES

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the condition of the frist demplot DME nyamplung. Energy self sufficient village program aims to improve stock and diverse energy source and society economic opportunity. Nyamplung is very potential plant to be used as raw material of biofuel, because it has very high fat plant content and has not be used for food. The biofuel from nyamplung is a new innovation. Involvement of forest village community in biofuel industry development both as producers and as consumers is very important. Forestry Ministry has established demonstration plots in Buluagung and Patutrejo villages as a facilitation in developing biofuel nyamplung silvoindustry. Up to now, the demplots still faces some problems. The researh method was qualitatif analysis. Collecting data from 62 respondents using purposive sampling. Data were collected using questionnaires, field obsevation, and in-depth interview. Focus group discussion was used to confirm the data from the respondents. Research results show that the demplots have not been developed through participatory approach. Involvement of community to demplots activity is low. Involvement of the village communities are significantly correlated to biofuel price, technology innovation, role of demplot and support from local leaders.

2013 feedstock supply and price projections and sensitivity analysis

AbstractFarmgate prices (i.e. price delivered roadside ready for loading and transport) for biomass feedstocks directly influence biofuel prices. Using the latest available data, marginal (i.e. price for the last ton) farmgate prices of $51, $63, and $67 dry ton−1 ($2011) are projected as necessary to provide 21 billion gallons of biofuels from about 250 million dry tons of terrestrial feedstocks in 2022 under price‐run deterministic, demand‐run deterministic, and stochastic simulations, respectively. Sources of uncertainty in these feedstock supply and price projections include conversion efficiency, global market impacts on crop price projections, crop yields, no‐till adoption, and climate. Under a set of low, high, and reference assumptions, these variables introduce an average of +/– $11 dry ton−1 (~15%) uncertainty of feedstock prices needed to meet EISA targets of 21 billion gallons of biofuels produced with 250 million dry tons of biomass in 2022. Market uncertainty justifies the need for fairly frequent (i.e. annual or biennial) re‐assessment of feedstock price projections to inform strategies toward commercialization of biofuels. Published in 2014 by John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd

IMPACTOS DOS PREÇOS DA GASOLINA E DO ETANOL SOBRE A DEMANDA DE ETANOL NO BRASIL

Este trabalho analisa a relação entre o mercado de gasolina e o de etanol. A literatura relaciona apenas o efeito substituição entre os combustíveis. No entanto, o Brasil, além de possuir um substituto direto da gasolina (o etanol), possui o etanol misturado na gasolina, de forma que pode existir um efeito complementaridade. Dessa forma, por meio do modelo de Vetores Autorregressivos Estruturais, procurou-se entender esses dois efeitos. Com relação aos resultados, nota-se no curto prazo que o efeito do preço da gasolina é maior na demanda de etanol. Em longo prazo, porém, os consumidores aumentam a demanda pelo biocombustível. Além disso, a entrada dos veículos flex no Brasil não ocasionou um aumento na demanda e no preço do etanol, porém, a crise afetou positivamente o preço do biocombustível. Como implicação, nota-se que a escolha do consumidor pela gasolina é predominante no curto prazo. No entanto, um aumento repentino no preço do combustível fóssil leva a uma substituição de combustíveis no prazo. Deve-se, assim, garantir o abastecimento de etanol no mercado doméstico para não afetar o consumidor com o aumento dos dois combustíveis no longo prazo.