Bioethanol Market Research Articles

Anhydrous Ethanol Pricing in Economies with an Underdeveloped Biofuels Market: The Case of Mexico

Most gasoline currently consumed in Mexico continues to be oxygenated with Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) despite its proven effects on the environment and human health. Hence, the existence of a regulatory framework on biofuels and various institutional efforts have not been sufficient to develop a national market for anhydrous ethanol use as biofuel. The goal of this research is twofold: one, to review and analyze the governmental actions taken to incorporate bioethanol as a gasoline oxygenate, and, two, to design a tool to estimate the bioethanol price at the Storage and Distribution Terminals of PEMEX (Mexico’s state-owned oil company). A price estimation model for bioethanol was developed through the microeconomic theory of the producer and the indifference price of a product methodology, which calculates the daily price of ethanol in the period 2015–2022; additionally, an MS Excel-based support tool was created for this analysis (namely: the Price-CEM). The analysis showed that incorporating bioethanol into the Mexican energy matrix would require policies of fiscal support for R&D, agricultural waste management and bioethanol production, as well as a new regulatory framework to both gradually eliminate MTBE and establish bioethanol/gasoline blending targets. Furthermore, institutional efforts would also be required to integrate all links in the biofuel production chain, including primary feedstock producers. The cost estimation method and tool have also shown to be valuable instruments to calculate both the prices at which a local bioethanol market would be competitive (with respect to the international market) and the most important cost contributions for local supply chains. This is the first tool to estimate the price of anhydrous ethanol at the local level, which can contribute to identifying opportunities and economic thresholds for the successful development of feasible bioethanol markets in Mexico.

CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIOETHANOL AND BIODIESEL MARKET IN UKRAINE

Wide use of motor biofuels, primarily advanced ones, is one of the effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport, a sector that is difficult to decarbonize. The European Green Deal, adopted by the EU at the end of 2019, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 and to achieve climate neutrality in Europe by 2050. At the same time, about a third of the intermediate goal of 2030 falls specifically to the transport sector. As part of implementing the European Green Deal, it is planned to raise the share of renewable energy sources in transport from the current more than 10% to 24% in 2030. Ukraine as a potential member of the EU will join the implementation of the European Green Deal in the future. Therefore, now it is already necessary to be actively engaged in the decarbonization of transport as an important component of green transition activities. The national renewable energy action plan until 2020 had set the goal of reaching 10% of renewable sources in energy consumption in transport, while in reality this figure came to only 2.47% in 2020. Obviously, this sector of Ukraine’s bioenergy needs special attention and efforts for its further development, and the promising direction is increasing production and consumption of liquid motor biofuels. The purpose of the work is to elaborate a basic scenario for the development of the biodiesel and bioethanol market in Ukraine detailing individual types of biofuel. The forecasting carried out in this study is founded on the basic approaches and assumptions laid down in the Roadmap for bioenergy development in Ukraine until 2050 elaborated by the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine in 2020. Main global trends in the biofuels sector have been also taken into account. A comprehensive assessment of the current and prospective bioenergy potential in Ukraine was carried out in terms of potential types of feedstock for obtaining liquid biofuels. Prospective volumes of production and internal consumption of motor biofuels were specified breaking down the data by biofuels type (biodiesel, bioethanol) and generation (first and second generation). A technical and economic assessment of the production of various types of motor biofuels for Ukraine’s conditions was performed. The obtained results show that the production of bioethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from used cooking oil is feasible today. In order to achieve profitable production of bioethanol from lignocellulosic feedstock, as well as biodiesel from rapeseed, it is necessary to find ways to reduce capital and operating costs of such plants or introduce target state support.

Building a Bioethanol Market in Mexico

Objectives: This article aims to analyze the economic effects of bioethanol policies in Mexico, where there have been several attempts to introduce biofuels into the market but so far, no success. Methodology: Technically, an endogenous-price mathematical programming model is developed emphasizing the agricultural and fuel sectors, which are embedded in a multi-region, multi- product, spatial partial equilibrium model. Bioethanol can be produced both from a dedicated crop and from agroindustrial residues. Three policy alternatives are considered as well as a base case in which, as now, liquid fuels are all derived from fossil sources. The first alternative consists of subsidies to biofuel producers, the second of blending mandates and the third of both combined.Results: Results show some losses for fuel and agricultural consumers, that are not offset by both ethanol producer and environmental gains. Limitations and implications: The base year data should be more recent, but it is very difficult to gather all this amount of information for a more recent year. Like any partial equilibrium model, the analysis ignores the effects outside the markets included in the model. Originality and value: Model developed for this research, and it is the first economic study on bioethanol in Mexico that reaches such a detailed analysis. Conclusions: This research suggests that it is possible to develop a bioethanol market in Mexico, but some compensating redistribution among economic groups may be needed if these policies are to be seen as politically sustainable.

Relative Prices of Ethanol-Gasoline in the Major Brazilian Capitals: An Analysis to Support Public Policies

The use of biomass as an energy source has advanced in recent decades, given the scientific evidence that it is a solution to the environmental problems faced globally. In this context, biofuels derived from biomass have a prominent role. Among the countries where this alternative is the most promising, Brazil stands out, just behind the USA. It is, therefore, necessary to assess whether such a replacement is economically viable. For such an assessment, the behavior of the relative price of bioethanol/gasoline is crucial. In the present work, the degree of temporal persistence of relative prices, considering the existence of shocks to which they are exposed, is evaluated, considering 15 important Brazilian capitals, via the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The degree of correlation is also evaluated through the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) between fuel prices in São Paulo, the capital of the most populous state and main producer of bioethanol, with the capitals of the 14 states selected for the analysis. The period of analysis takes place between 2004 and 2020. The use of DCCA with sliding windows was recently proposed and we also evaluate DFA dynamically in this way, and this, together with an extended sample in the context of Brazilian fuel prices, represents the main innovations of the present work. We found that the degree of persistence varies significantly depending on the capitals analyzed, which means that price variations are localized and demand regional stimulus policies. Furthermore, it was found that the correlation with São Paulo is less intense in the most geographically distant capitals. Such evidence is important and complementary to infer how integrated the national bioethanol market is, in order to support public policies aimed at its consolidation.

The impact of market factors on the development of eco-friendly energy technologies: the case of bioethanol.

Global warming is emerging as the most serious concern for the planet, with greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) contributing considerably to the problem. Consequently, warranting energy sustainability has turned into an urgent issue for scholars and policy-makers alike. Bioethanol has emerged as a viable eco-friendly replacement for avoiding GHG generating fossil fuels. However, bioethanol has faced several hurdles that have discouraged its development during these years. Apart from unpractical technological applications and failed ventures, bioethanol has been experiencing heavy competition from hydrocarbon fuels and adverse economic cycles. Currently, bioethanol is facing an uncertain scenario due to the combination of climbing crop prices and slow innovative production processes, including the cost-effective utilization of agriculture waste. Here, the impact of market conditions upon the competitive development of bioethanol is analyzed. It is argued that fluctuating fossil fuel prices over the last ten years has discouraged bioethanol’s technological viability. As a result, the consolidation of industrial biotechnology, especially for biorefineries, has slowed down. Policy implications of recurrent fluctuations in the bioethanol market are also discussed.Graphic abstract Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-021-02225-6.

Analysis of the impact of electric vehicle policy on supply and demand of U.S. states bioethanol market

This study aims to construct a quantitative model of the dynamic influence of electric vehicle sales in the United States on bioethanol consumption and bioethanol production. The final research results have shown that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship in our multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model between bioethanol consumption and bioethanol production, gasoline price, corn price, and electric vehicle sales. It can be seen from the impulse response analysis that ethanol demand will strongly respond to one standard deviation of electric vehicle sales, and our new model fits the real data of ethanol supply and demand deviation well. Based on this newly long-term equilibrium relationship, we have constructed a policy simulation model to describe the quantitative relationship between the changes in the electric vehicle policy of each state and the temporal and spatial pattern of the national bioethanol resource allocation among US states. It can help and serve as a reference tool for policy makers to conduct quantitative policy evaluation.

Ukraine liquid biofuel market current state modeling

Development and use of alternative energy in Ukraine is one of the state priority directions. Production and use of liquid bioenergy fuels from energy crops and biomass cultivation for the production of biofuels of various types’ provision are the main priorities for Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to determine the opportunities of Ukraine liquid biofuel market development scenario binary econometric model design. In the article, based on the method of economic and statistical modeling with the use of statistical software environment «R» econometric models of Ukraine liquid bioenergy fuels market formation and functioning have been designed. The objective of the study is to substantiate the possibility of an econometric model and regression analysis in the study of prospects for the development of the liquid biofuel market application. The possibility of usage the alternative energy in Ukraine has been substantiated, as one of the state priority directions. The conducted study on Ukraine bioethanol market development and functioning until 2023 forecast enabled to establish that volumes of corn export and export price for wheat affect the Ukraine bioethanol production scope. It has been substantiated that in the country it is expedient to form the products consumption culture in the context of low-carbon economic development in the face of global climate challenges and taking into account future trends. A multifactor correlation model that is based on the bioethanol market in Ukraine's development and functioning study has been suggested.

Profitability Using Second-Generation Bioethanol in Gasoline Produced in Mexico

Gasoline produced in Mexico by the productive company of the state Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) mainly uses oil-derived ethers as oxygenators to reach the Mexican Regulatory ‘Framework’s octane number. An alternative to complying with these regulations could be to use bioethanol as an oxygenate. However, as a gasoline component, this could affect ‘Mexico’s food markets since sugar cane, and grains are the primary inputs for local production. The main objective of this study is to evaluate whether the use of bioethanol, produced from corn stubble, as an additive in gasoline produced by Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) is profitable in Mexico, from the perspective of the evaluation of the supply chain and the finances. The purpose of this work is to contribute to the definition of the advantages and limitations for the existence of a second-generation bioethanol market produced from Lignocellulosic corn biomass and integrated into the gasoline market of national production in Mexico. The work starts with theoretical research to define the use of corn stubble as raw material, set up on its availability and feasibility determined based on a geographic information system (GIS), through the use of the agricultural production forecast approach, as well as the integration of costs and financial analysis. The results show that corn stubble bioethanol production is technically viable, but the production cost is not competitive yet. Although its price is not yet competitive compared to the imported price, using a fiscal incentive scheme and considering the decrease in energy dependence, it would be feasible to produce it in Mexico.

Economic, environmental, and social assessment of bioethanol production using multiple coffee crop residues

The use of agricultural residues for bioethanol production greatly depends on availability of raw materials and the proper design of a flexible multi-feedstock facility. Therefore, this article assesses the economic, environmental, and social feasibility of a bioethanol production plant, using multiple coffee crops residues (stems, pulp, and mucilage). A case study was designed for the Colombian context, considering three scenarios for different capacity plant. Results suggest that the production costs of 0.504, 0.508, and 0.515 $USD/l for large, medium and small capacity, respectively, are comparable to the bioethanol market price and are similar to other studies reported in the literature. The CO2 emissions obtained were 1.296 Kg CO2/l, 1.297 Kg CO2/l and 1.3 Kg CO2/l for the large, medium, and small plants respectively. The large plant requires 1,170 million tons per year of fresh water, and generates a gray water footprint of 119 thousand tons per year. However, without recirculation, 2.87 times more water is required. Favorable results were identified in terms of reduction of collateral environmental effects, as well as positive impacts on social aspects. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows the impacts of key parameters on economic, social, and environmental merits of producing bioethanol from coffee residues.

ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ СУЧАСНИХ ПРОБЛЕМ ВИРОБНИЦТВА АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНИХ ПАЛИВ ДЛЯ БЕНЗИНОВИХ ДВИГУНІВ В УКРАЇНІ

Мета. Визначення проблем розвитку ринку біопалив та показників експлуатаційнихвластивостей палив альтернативних для бензинових двигунів із різним співвідношеннямприсадок.Методика. При дослідженнях використовували передбачені діючими державнимистандартами методи, які дозволяють оцінити показники експлуатаційних властивостейпалив.Результати. Встановлено, що ринок альтернативних палив перебуває на етапіформування, має ряд проблем, які необхідно вирішувати, адже перспективи розвиткутакого ринку в Україні значні.Перед Україною відкривається ємнісний ринок біоетанолу країнЄвропейського Союзу. Місця провадження діяльності, на яких планується організаціявиробництва біоетанолу та палива моторного альтернативного, знаходяться в регіонах,де є достатній обсяг цукровмісної та крохмалевмісної сировини. На сьогодні ця сировинаекспортується в країни, де з неї виготовляють біоетанол. Після налагодженнявиробництва даного палива у Вінницькій, Київській, Львівській, Тернопільській, Черкаськійта Чернівецькій областях переробно-харчовий сегмент АПК цих регіонів отримає новіімпульси для розвитку, що поступово виведе зі стану стагнації й суміжні із спиртовимвиробництвом галузі.Важливою проблемою є використання присадок, які забезпечатьхімічну стабільність бензинового біопалива з високими експлуатаційними властивостями,що дасть можливість виробляти та використовувати такі палива з вмістом етиловогоспирту 30 % і вище, а це, в свою чергу, дозволить суттєво збільшувати часткуспоживання альтернативних палив в Україні, що є нагальною проблемою сьогодення.Досліджено, що різний вміст присадок по-різному впливає на експлуатаційнівластивості альтернативних палив для бензинових двигунів, зокрема на октанове число тахімічну стабільність.Наукова новизна. Встановлено вплив складу вихідної композиції альтернативногопалива на його хімічну стабільність та октанове число. Практична значимість. Альтернативні палива для бензинових двигунів широковикористовуються у світі, збільшення вмісту етилового спирту у його складі даєможливість зменшити обсяг використання нафтового бензину, а це, в свою чергу,призведе до покращення екологічної ситуації довкілля та економії дорогої нафтовоїсировини .

Development of Highly Digestible Grain Sorghum Lines Suitable for Efficient Dry-Grind Ethanol Production

Low-world oil prices but supportive government policies provide growing environmental and energy security support favorable for the bioethanol market. The need to generate large and sustainable supply of biomass to make bioethanol will require the development of crops grown specifically for bioenergy production. Given the existing history of genetic improvement and infrastructure available for sorghum, (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) hybrids will be one of the several species dedicated as energy crop and the subject of this study. Texas A & M University Sorghum Breeding Program has developed hybrid sorghum varieties with high protein digestibility and improved starch digestibility. Most of the previous research on grain sorghum focused on the digestibility of sorghum protein from the nutritional point of view. The aim of the current study was to select best sorghum lines from relatively large and diverse sorghum samples that breeders are currently working with for the development of new low energy input liquefaction, saccharification and fermentation methodologies to produce bioethanol. Limited researches studies report on the performance of sorghum varieties in ethanol fermentation in relation to the protein and starch digestibility of sorghum.

Simulation of the Effect of the Global Bioethanol Market on International Corn Price

Simulation of the Effect of the Global Bioethanol Market on International Corn Price

Izazovi proizvodnje bioetanola između i nusproizvoda prerade šećerne repe u Republici Srbiji

The bioethanol market is large and has a constant upward trend, which requires the improvement of its production. In the Republic of Serbia, bioethanol is produced using sugar beet molasses-based media. Taking into account a few disadvantages of molasses as raw material, as well as a decreasing trend in its use in Serbia, it is necessary to consider other possibilities provided by the sugar beet processing technology. Therefore, the cogeneration of sugar and bioethanol may serve as an alternative and viable solution. In this paper, the data on the characteristics of intermediate and by-products of sugar beet processing, used as raw materials for bioethanol production, are summarized. The criteria for their selection are given, and the locations of their generation are mapped. Furthermore, the current bioethanol production capacities in the Republic of Serbia are presented, and the possibility of the cogeneration of sugar and bioethanol in domestic factories is considered.

Disponibilidad y costos de producción de biomasa forestal como materia prima para la producción de bioetanol

La biomasa forestal es una alternativa ecológica y económicamente viable para la generación de bioetanol debido a que su fuente es abundante, renovable y contribuye a la reducción de gases efecto invernadero. En este estudio, se propone y analiza una metodología para la estimación de la disponibilidad y costos de producción del uso potencial de la biomasa forestal como materia prima para la producción de bioetanol en bosques de pinos del estado de Durango, México. Se usó información del Inventario Forestal Periódico, programas de manejo forestal y datos de empresas de aserraderos e industriales forestales para estimar la biomasa forestal que incluye los restos de aprovechamientos forestales (puntas, ramas) y desperdicios industriales (aserrín, costeras). Se utilizaron simulaciones Monte Carlo para estimar costos de producción de la recolección, extracción y transporte de la biomasa a centros de transformación. Los resultados indican que alrededor de 322.000 toneladas pueden utilizarse para la producción de 38 millones de litros de etanol por año. Las simulaciones Monte Carlo indican que el costo promedio de residuos forestales es de US $23,8 por tonelada (US $0,20 L–1 etanol) mientras que el de residuos industriales es de US $22,6 por tonelada (US $0,19 L–1 etanol). Los factores más importantes en el análisis de sensibilidad fueron el costo pagado a dueños del material, eficiencia tecnológica y distancia de transporte. En el corto plazo, el uso de la biomasa forestal para la generación de biocombustibles tiene varios retos entre los que se encuentran los costos de transporte y la competencia generada por industrias similares como pulpa, papel y tableros aglomerados. Como alternativa se encuentra el desarrollo de biorefinerías integradoras y el uso de medios de transporte más eficientes.

Thermodynamic and economic assessment of the production of light olefins from bioethanol

The production of light olefins from bioethanol was evaluated in terms of thermodynamics and economics using Aspen Plus and Aspen Hysys as process simulators. The conceptual design of two different plants were proposed: one for ethylene and another for propylene and butenes production. A bioethanol sample containing characteristic compounds after biomass fermentation (e.g., ethanol, water, and aliphatics) was used as raw material in the plants, which could handle 10% of the Colombian bioethanol market. The plants delivered streams of 99mol% ethylene, 90mol% propylene, and a mixture of butenes. A class-V-order economic assessment of both optimized, heated-integrated plants was carried out giving total investments of 5.37 USD million for the ethylene plant (459 USD/ton ethylene-year) and 10.27 USD million for the propylene plant (2100 USD/ton of propylene and butenes-year). Traditional production routes from petroleum have reported comparative investment costs of 1300 USD/ton-year for ethylene and 1450 USD/ton-year for propylene. This initial feasibility analysis shows the potential of olefin production, mostly ethylene, from real fermented bioethanol, as an interesting approach to the biorefinery concept that could make their production more sustainable and economic.

Modeling of China's cassava-based bioethanol supply chain operation and coordination

As a useful alternative to petroleum-based fuel, biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. Cassava is viewed as an important and highly attractive nonedible feedstock for the production of biofuels. In this paper, a game-theoretic approach is proposed to explore decision behavior within a cassava-based bioethanol supply chain under the condition of yield uncertainty. In addition, a production cost sharing contract is proposed to overcome the double marginalization effect due to competition between supply chain players. With data from China's cassava-based bioethanol industry, the paper analyzes the effects of the farmer's capacity, risk aversion, yield uncertainty, the conversion ratio, the bioethanol's market price and ethanol plant's operation cost on optimal decisions within the supply chain and its overall performance. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed production cost sharing contract is tested, and the results show that it can enhance the supply of cassava, increase the utility of the whole supply chain and reduce the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications are set out for policy makers regarding how to promote the development of the biofuel industry, to guarantee the supply of feedstock, to reduce GHG emissions and to promote rural development.

Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system

In this paper, the capacity expansion strategies of biofuels supply and the potential for the market development of biofuel vehicles are examined using an integrated System Dynamics model of energy and transport systems for Iceland. The biofuel markets are simulated in the context of a market-based economic system. The demand side enables an endogenous analysis of the road transport sector in which the long-term evolutions of light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle fleets are simulated through a consumer choice algorithm. Two scenarios are defined to support the fuel and infrastructure for biofuel vehicles: i) the Initial Push scenario as a tracking capacity planning strategy with an initial supply momentum, and ii) the Enthusiastic scenario as a leading capacity strategy with a continuous supply push. The results indicate that the dynamics of the bio-diesel market are not highly sensitive to the supply strategies employed. However, changing the capacity planning strategy could significantly influence the medium-term development of biogas as well as the evolution of the bio-ethanol market throughout the planning horizon until 2050. While the Initial Push scenario is less costly from a fuel supply perspective, the Enthusiastic strategy would be advantageous in terms of overall energy and transport benefits.

Using an internally heat-integrated distillation column for ethanol–water separation for fuel applications

Distillation is widely used as a key process to concentrate ethanol from fermented broth in the Brazilian sugarcane industry. In this study, Aspen Plus® was used to compare the energy demand for a heat-integrated distillation column (HIDiC) both with and without heat panels with the energy demand for a conventional distillation column for a separation process that could be applied to the Brazilian bioethanol market. The overall convective heat transfer coefficient, area, and other parameter values were calculated and combined with the HIDiC simulation. The reboiler duty results showed that by assuming a fixed fraction of the fluids exchanged energy at the panels, energy savings of 77% were possible with the HIDiC column compared to the energy requirements of a conventional column. This approach also allowed a stage-by-stage calculation of the overall heat transfer coefficient instead of assuming a constant value.

Bioethanol from poplar: a commercially viable alternative to fossil fuel in the European Union.

BackgroundThe European Union has made it a strategic objective to develop its biofuels market in order to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to help mitigate climate change and to address energy insecurity within the transport sector. Despite targets set at national and supranational levels, lignocellulosic bioethanol production has yet to be widely commercialized in the European Union. Here, we use techno-economic modeling to compare the price of bioethanol produced from short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar feedstocks under two leading processing technologies in five European countries.ResultsOur evaluation shows that the type of processing technology and varying national costs between countries results in a wide range of bioethanol production prices (€0.275 to 0.727/l). The lowest production prices for bioethanol were found in countries that had cheap feedstock costs and high prices for renewable electricity. Taxes and other costs had a significant influence on fuel prices at the petrol station, and therefore the presence and amount of government support for bioethanol was a major factor determining the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel. In a forward-looking scenario, genetically engineering poplar with a reduced lignin content showed potential to enhance the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel by reducing overall costs by approximately 41% in four out of the five countries modeled. However, the possible wider phenotypic traits of advanced poplars needs to be fully investigated to ensure that these do not unintentionally negate the cost savings indicated.ConclusionsThrough these evaluations, we highlight the key bottlenecks within the bioethanol supply chain from the standpoint of various stakeholders. For producers, technologies that are best suited to the specific feedstock composition and national policies should be optimized. For policymakers, support schemes that benefit emerging bioethanol producers and allow renewable fuel to be economically competitive with petrol should be established. Finally, for researchers, better control over plant genetic engineering and advanced breeding and its consequential economic impact would bring valuable contributions towards developing an economically sustainable bioethanol market within the European Union.

Partial equilibrium analysis of the EC bioethanol blend mandate policy: its potential implications for EU transport sector

The aim of this study is to set up an EU27 bioethanol partial equilibrium model under a binding blend mandate and to determine the bioethanol market clearing conditions’ implications on EU transport sector. Bioethanol supply is derived from EU27 bioethanol crops while its demand is a derived from that of transport fuel in the region. Results show that equilibrium bioethanol quantities at 70% tax rebate for the bioethanol component of the fuel mixture are 133 and 188 thousand barrels of bioethanol per day at 5.75% and 10% blend mandate respectively. This implies that a 5.75% and 10% blend mandate will decrease gasoline demand by 42% and 52% respectively from reference 2004 EU gasoline demand. Theoretically therefore, the EC biofuel blend mandate could reduce carbon foot print in the region but with questionable sustainable allocation of resources given the impact such a mandate will have on bioethanol crops commodities markets.