CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIOETHANOL AND BIODIESEL MARKET IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Wide use of motor biofuels, primarily advanced ones, is one of the effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport, a sector that is difficult to decarbonize. The European Green Deal, adopted by the EU at the end of 2019, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 and to achieve climate neutrality in Europe by 2050. At the same time, about a third of the intermediate goal of 2030 falls specifically to the transport sector. As part of implementing the European Green Deal, it is planned to raise the share of renewable energy sources in transport from the current more than 10% to 24% in 2030. Ukraine as a potential member of the EU will join the implementation of the European Green Deal in the future. Therefore, now it is already necessary to be actively engaged in the decarbonization of transport as an important component of green transition activities. The national renewable energy action plan until 2020 had set the goal of reaching 10% of renewable sources in energy consumption in transport, while in reality this figure came to only 2.47% in 2020. Obviously, this sector of Ukraine’s bioenergy needs special attention and efforts for its further development, and the promising direction is increasing production and consumption of liquid motor biofuels. The purpose of the work is to elaborate a basic scenario for the development of the biodiesel and bioethanol market in Ukraine detailing individual types of biofuel. The forecasting carried out in this study is founded on the basic approaches and assumptions laid down in the Roadmap for bioenergy development in Ukraine until 2050 elaborated by the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine in 2020. Main global trends in the biofuels sector have been also taken into account. A comprehensive assessment of the current and prospective bioenergy potential in Ukraine was carried out in terms of potential types of feedstock for obtaining liquid biofuels. Prospective volumes of production and internal consumption of motor biofuels were specified breaking down the data by biofuels type (biodiesel, bioethanol) and generation (first and second generation). A technical and economic assessment of the production of various types of motor biofuels for Ukraine’s conditions was performed. The obtained results show that the production of bioethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from used cooking oil is feasible today. In order to achieve profitable production of bioethanol from lignocellulosic feedstock, as well as biodiesel from rapeseed, it is necessary to find ways to reduce capital and operating costs of such plants or introduce target state support.