Bioclimatic Models Research Articles

Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube

The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species—Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia, F. excelsior, Populus nigra, Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis, and U. minor. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services.

On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2

This paper addresses the effects of atmospheric conditions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. For this purpose, we assess the limitations of bioclimatic correlative models to explain the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of medical geography. Overall, there is a broad consensus that the global distribution of COVID-19 is not random but conditioned by environmental drivers. However, as the COVID-19 distribution becomes global, including tropical climates, the evidence reveals that atmospheric conditions explain, at most, only a limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the usefulness of approaches based on bioclimatic envelopes is in question since the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 seems to be the anthroposphere's non-stationary environment. In this sense, there is a need to clarify further the role of different transmission routes at multiple scales and outdoor and indoor environments beyond bioclimatic envelopes. At this time, the possible influence of the weather in COVID-19 spread is not sufficient to be taken into account in public health policies. Hence, until reliable bioclimatic envelopes of SARS-CoV-2, if any, are found, caution should be exercised when reporting, as this could have unforeseen consequences.

Fire and vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberia during the last 60 years based on high-resolution remote sensing

Abstract. The rapidly warming Arctic undergoes transitions that can influence global carbon balance. One of the key processes is the shift towards vegetation types with higher biomass underlining a stronger carbon sink. The shift is predicted by bioclimatic models based on abiotic climatic factors, but it is not always confirmed with observations. Recent studies highlight the role of disturbances in the shift. Here we use high-resolution remote sensing to study the process of transition from tundra to forest and its connection to wildfires in the 20 000 km2 area in northwest Siberia. Overall, 40 % of the study area was burned during a 60-year period. Three-quarters of the burned areas were dry tundra. About 10 % of the study area experienced two–three fires with an interval of 15–60 years suggesting a shorter fire return interval than that reported earlier for the northern areas of central Siberia (130–350 years). Based on our results, the shift in vegetation (within the 60-year period) occurred in 40 %–85 % of the burned territories. All fire-affected territories were flat; therefore no effect of topography was detected. Oppositely, in the undisturbed areas, a transition of vegetation was observed only in 6 %–15 % of the territories, characterized by steeper topographic slopes. Our results suggest a strong role of disturbances in the tree advance in northwest Siberia.

Bioclimatic design as a large city urban structure reorganization factor

The modern landscape of a large city is a complex, dynamically changing environment with a constant influence of environmental, social and economic factors. The gradual historical development of the territory and the change in urban processes led to the formation of a city containing mixed-type areas, i.e. border territories and separate zones - industrial, residential, intermediate. In Russia, the improvement of coastal zones in large cities has become an urgent task when adjusting master plans for the development of territories [1-5]. The main component of such projects is the development of a concept for the renovation of coastal zones into generally accessible natural and recreational recreation areas based on water bodies within the urban planning. The creation of recreations, recreation areas, the formation of a system of pedestrian communications, the opening of residential complexes to the water, the integration of water into public urban spaces [2-6]. A comprehensive analysis of theoretical studies and design experience made it possible to highlight the properties of water used in architecture and urban planning. Thus, the development of a promising bioclimatic model of urban settlements of the third millennium will be based on ecological design, which includes part of the processes of the circulation of substances and energy, as well as harmony in the environment [6-9].

The Challenges of the Bioclimatic Architecture in Romania

The Bioclimatic Architecture is an architectural style, new as terminology in the history of architecture, but old in its principles, that can be found in the history of the vernacular architecture since the first types of houses appeared. Nowadays, due to the need of eco-friendly ways of building and due to the need of green energy consumption, it emerged in different architectural styles aiming to develop the built space in different manners. Green, Passive, Solar and Bioclimatic Architecture. Each one of them is depending on the natural factors, but from all of them, Bioclimatic Architecture uses all the natural resources available on the site through the volume of the construction in passive ways, sing reduced amounts of energy. First bioclimatic models appeared in hot climate, where they successfully responded to the only needs of cooling the interior air by solar protection and by natural ventilation, and also using the thermal inertia for providing warm air during the cold summer nights. The main problem appears in the temperate zone where, during the winter time, the need of active systems for providing higher indoor temperature appears a warm indoor temperature against the sub-zero outside temperature. This paper aims to highlight the particularities of Romanian continental climate that influences the bioclimatic model, to mark the limit where the passive bioclimatic principles stop, and from where the active systems begin.

Rodents as indicators of the climatic conditions during the Middle Pleistocene in the southwestern Mediterranean region: implications for the environment in which hominins lived

Rodents are a very useful tool in reconstructing the environment of the past, especially owing to their rapid response to climate change, their small home range, and their restricted habitat requirements. They are a highly diverse group of mammals, which have high reproduction rates and as a result can evolve rapidly. The abundance of their microfossil remains in archaeological and paleontological sites permits robust statistical analyses to reconstruct the past climate and environment. Recently, a number of studies have affirmed the need to deepen the climatic characterization of the European Quaternary, the Middle Pleistocene being an important stage for ascertaining how our hominin ancestors lived. The aim of this study is to characterize the climatic conditions in which hominins lived in southwestern Mediterranean Europe during the Middle Pleistocene. To reconstruct these climatic conditions, we apply the bioclimatic model to rodent assemblages from Middle Pleistocene sites with human remains (Caune de l’Arago, Sima de los Huesos, Aroeira cave, Visogliano, Trinchera Galeria, and Mollet cave). Based on the percentage distribution of the species in different climate types and applying multiple linear regressions, we estimated the mean annual temperature, the mean temperature of the coldest month, and the mean temperature of the warmest month. We compared these estimates with data collected over the last 30 years from nearby meteorological stations to obtain the differences with current climate and observe the fluctuations. The climatic conditions obtained from the results of this study show that, while in Iberia mild climatic condition prevailed, in southern France and northeastern Italy harsher weather conditions were indicated.

Urbanization, habitat extension and spatial pattern, threaten a Costa Rican endemic bird

Introduction: The migration of people from rural environments to cities has accelerated urbanization. This has modified the landscape as well as the ecological processes and communities in these areas. The Costa Rican endemic Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow (Melozone cabanisi) is a species of limited distribution restricted to the Gran Area Metropolitana, which is the biggest urban settlement of the country. This area has experimented and still experiment an ongoing fragmentation and loss of habitat of the areas used by this species (i.e., coffee plantations, shrubs, and thickets). Objective: Determine the effects of urbanization on habitat abundance and spatial pattern for the occurrence of the Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow. Methods: We modeled the area of potentially suitable habitat for the Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow in Costa Rica using occurrence and bioclimatic data. Then, we estimated the actual suitable habitat using the potentially suitable habitat and land cover type layers. Finally, we analyzed the connectivity among the actual suitable habitat patches using single-patch and multi-patch approaches. Results: From the area of potentially suitable habitat estimated by the bioclimatic model, 74 % were urban areas that are unsuitable for Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow. The largest suitable patches within urban areas were coffee plantations; which also were crucial for maintaining connectivity between habitat patches along the species’ range. Conclusions: To preserve and protect the endemic Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow these areas must be taken into consideration by decision-makers in the present and future management plans. We recommend avoiding change shrubs and thickets to urban cover to preserve the occurrence of the endemic Cabanis´s Ground-Sparrow, and implement a program for the payment of environmental services to landholders, supported by the local governments, to protect those habitats in urban contexts. Finally, this is a tool that will help to detect which habitats within heavily urbanized areas are the most important to ensure different species conservation.

Bioclimatic Modelling Identifies Suitable Habitat for the Establishment of the Invasive European Paper Wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) across the Southern Hemisphere.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are tools used by ecologists to help predict the spread of invasive species. Information provided by these models can help direct conservation and biosecurity efforts by highlighting areas likely to contain species of interest. In this study, two models were created to investigate the potential range expansion of Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the southern hemisphere. This palearctic species has spread to invade North and South America, South Africa, Australia, and more recently New Zealand. Using the BIOCLIM and MAXENT modelling methods, regions that were suitable for P. dominula were identified based on climate data across four regions in the southern hemisphere. In South America areas of central Chile, eastern Argentina, parts of Uruguay, and southern Brazil were identified as climatically suitable for the establishment of P. dominula. Similarly, southern parts of South Africa and Australia were identified by the model to be suitable as well as much of the North Island and east of the South Island of New Zealand. Based on outputs from both models, significant range expansion by P. dominula is possible across its more southern invaded ranges.

Environmental context for the Late Pleistocene (MIS 3) transition from Neanderthals to early Modern Humans: Analysis of small mammals from La Güelga Cave, Asturias, northern Spain

La Güelga Cave (Asturias, NW Spain) contains a stratigraphic succession dating from 47.2 ± 2.2 to 38.6 ± 0.5 cal kyr BP. Evidence of Mousterian, Châtelperronian and Aurignacian occupations in the succession documents the transition from Neanderthals to Early Modern Humans. To better understand the palaeoenvironmental context of this transition, we analyzed a rich small-mammal assemblage, comprising a minimum number of 2227 individuals and 20 taxa, in a high-resolution stratigraphic context, using the Bioclimatic Model, the Habitat Weighting Method, and biodiversity measures. Results identify a climate-cooling phase at the end of the Mousterian occupations (~45 ka), which transformed a mosaic of patchy forest and humid meadows into a more arid open landscape. Another cooling event, matching Heinrich stadial 4 (H4), coincided with the arrival of the Aurignacians (~39 ka). Comparison with regional and global records shows that the alternating cool-wet and arid events documented at La Güelga Cave are coeval with the advance and retreat of the Picos de Europa glaciers, and with global climatic events recorded in marine and ice cores. The impact of these environmental changes on the human cultural and biologic transitions is discussed.

Ecology, distribution and control of the invasive weed Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack. ex Arechav.: A global review of current and future challenges

AbstractNassella trichotoma (serrated tussock) is a highly invasive perennial C3 weed from South America. It grows in most soil conditions, can resist fire and frost, and is unpalatable to grazing animals. Each plant can produce up to 140,000 seeds annually, and together, these characteristics make it a damaging landscape weed. It has diminished the agricultural carrying capacity of pastures in south‐eastern Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, and emerging populations have now been identified in Europe and the United States, and bioclimatic models suggest its distribution could significantly expand within these regions in the near future. Research into control methods for this weed has been explored, and these include herbicides applied alone and in combination, the establishment of plant competition, the introduction of seed mitigation fencing, grazing management and exclusion zones, specific biological management and alteration of soil composition. Currently, the most effective and widely used control method is the residual herbicide flupropanate (2,2,3,3‐tetrafluoropropanoic acid). This review will investigate the ecology, distribution, current control techniques and past research on this species, and make recommendations for future research and management.

On the importance of predictor choice, modelling technique, and number of pseudo-absences for bioclimatic envelope model performance.

Bioclimatic envelope models are commonly used to assess the influence of climate change on species' distributions and biodiversity patterns. Understanding how methodological choices influence these models is critical for a comprehensive evaluation of the estimated impacts. Here we systematically assess the performance of bioclimatic envelope models in relation to the selection of predictors, modeling technique, and pseudo‐absences. We considered (a) five different predictor sets, (b) seven commonly used modeling techniques and an ensemble model, and (c) three sets of pseudo‐absences (1,000 pseudo‐absences, 10,000 pseudo‐absences, and the same as the number of presences). For each combination of predictor set, modeling technique, and pseudo‐absence set, we fitted bioclimatic envelope models for 300 species of mammals, amphibians, and freshwater fish, and evaluated the predictive performance of the models using the true skill statistic (TSS), based on a spatially independent test set as well as cross‐validation. On average across the species, model performance was mostly influenced by the choice of predictor set, followed by the choice of modeling technique. The number of the pseudo‐absences did not have a strong effect on the model performance. Based on spatially independent testing, ensemble models based on species‐specific nonredundant predictor sets revealed the highest predictive performance. In contrast, the Random Forest technique yielded the highest model performance in cross‐validation but had the largest decrease in model performance when transferred to a different spatial context, thus highlighting the need for spatially independent model evaluation. We recommend building bioclimatic envelope models according to an ensemble modeling approach based on a nonredundant set of bioclimatic predictors, preferably selected for each modeled species.

MaxEnt algorithm applying to moss species distribution analysis

Bioclimatic modeling method MaxEnt is tested on objects occupying micro-habitats on the example ofmosses. Data organizing options and the results are discussed.

New bioclimatic models for the quaternary palaearctic based on insectivore and rodent communities

Mammal remains, preserved in archaeological and palaeontological deposits, are commonly used to reconstruct past terrestrial climates and environments. Here we propose new species-specific models for Bioclimatic Analysis, a palaeoclimatic method based on a climatic restriction index for each mammal species, discriminant analysis, and multiple linear regressions. Our new models are based on small mammal associations, particularly insectivores and rodents, from Quaternary paleoarctic contexts. A dataset including new localities and an updated taxonomy was constructed in order to develop two approaches, the first using only Rodentia, the second based on associations including both Rodentia and Eulipotyphla. Both approaches proved to be reliable for inferring both climate zone and quantifying temperature, precipitation, and seasonality. Rarefaction analysis revealed these new models to be reliable even when a substantial percentage of species from the original palaeocommunity was absent from the fossil site. Application of these new models to small mammal associations from two sequences (Balma de l'Abeurador, France and El Mirón, Spain) spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene are consistent with the primary climatic changes recorded by regional Pyrenean proxies and showed an increase in mean annual temperature of between 3 and 5 °C.

Use of meteorological data in biosecurity.

Pests, pathogens and diseases cause some of the most widespread and damaging impacts worldwide — threatening lives and leading to severe disruption to economic, environmental and social systems. The overarching goal of biosecurity is to protect the health and security of plants and animals (including humans) and the wider environment from these threats. As nearly all living organisms and biological systems are sensitive to weather and climate, meteorological, ‘met’, data are used extensively in biosecurity. Typical applications include, (i) bioclimatic modelling to understand and predict organism distributions and responses, (ii) risk assessment to estimate the probability of events and horizon scan for future potential risks, and (iii) early warning systems to support outbreak management. Given the vast array of available met data types and sources, selecting which data is most effective for each of these applications can be challenging. Here we provide an overview of the different types of met data available and highlight their use in a wide range of biosecurity studies and applications. We argue that there are many synergies between meteorology and biosecurity, and these provide opportunities for more widespread integration and collaboration across the disciplines. To help communicate typical uses of meteorological data in biosecurity to a wide audience we have designed the ‘Meteorology for biosecurity’ infographic.

Resilience of invasive tubeworm (Hydroides dirampha) to warming and salinity stress and its implications for biofouling community dynamics

Anthropogenic activities have accelerated the movement of non-indigenous species throughout the world. One approach to predict the spread of non-indigenous species is to employ bioclimatic envelope models which often assume niche conservation among sympatric, closely related species. Here, we test this assumption by comparing early developmental progress of two non-indigenous calcareous biofouling tubeworms Hydroides elegans and H. dirampha. In the subtropical Hong Kong monsoon climate, H. dirampha and H. elegans experience dramatic seasonal fluctuations in temperature (from 17 to 30 °C) and salinity (from 15 to 34 psu). Hydroides elegans was previously shown to be sensitive to lower salinity and warmer temperature while H. dirampha persisted in the field under these seasonal conditions. Thus, we hypothesize that the observed shift in abundance is due to the resilience of early stages of H. dirampha to the interactive stress of warming and lower salinity. Larval survival, growth, clearance, and settlement rate of H. dirampha were quantified in a 2 × 3 factorial experiment (24 and 28 °C; 20, 26, 32 psu). Stage-dependent tolerance was observed: cleavage was hindered by low salinity. However, larval growth and clearance did not follow this trend and instead peaked at 26 psu. Similarly, settlement rate did not decrease with freshening; rather, it peaked at 26 psu under warming. The salinity tolerance of H. dirampha is compared with that determined by Qiu and Qian (Mar Ecol Prog Ser 168: 127–134, 1998) for H. elegans. Differences in larval physiological tolerances could shape abundance and distribution of a single species as well as broader community structure.

Current distribution and voltinism of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, in Switzerland and its response to climate change using a high-resolution CLIMEX model

Climate change can alter the habitat suitability of invasive species and promote their establishment. The highly polyphagous brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to East Asia and invasive in Europe and North America, damaging a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. In Switzerland, crop damage and increasing populations have been observed since 2017 and related to increasing temperatures. We studied the climatic suitability, population growth, and the number of generations under present and future climate conditions for H. halys in Switzerland, using a modified version of the bioclimatic model package CLIMEX. To address the high topographic variability in Switzerland, model simulations were based on climate data of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 km), which significantly increased their explanatory power, and identified many more climatically suitable areas in comparison to previous models. The validation of the CLIMEX model using observational records collected in a citizen science initiative between 2004 and 2019 revealed that more than 15 years after its accidental introduction, H. halys has colonised nearly all bioclimatic suitable areas in Switzerland and there is limited potential for range expansion into new areas under present climate conditions. Simulations with climate change scenarios suggest an extensive range expansion into higher altitudes, an increase in generations per year, an earlier start of H. halys activity in spring and a prolonged period for nymphs to complete development in autumn. A permanent shift from one to two generations per year and the associated population growth of H. halys may result in increasing crop damages in Switzerland. These results highlight the need for monitoring the spread and population development in the north-western part of Switzerland and higher altitudes of the valleys of the south.

Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types as an alternative to species distribution models for projecting plant species shifts under changing climates

Land managers need new tools for planning novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used extensively to predict future distributions of species under different climates, but their map products are often too coarse for fine-scale operational use. In this study we developed a flexible, efficient, and robust method for mapping current and future distributions and abundances of vegetation species and communities at the fine spatial resolutions that are germane to land management. First, we mapped Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) using conventional statistical modeling techniques (Random Forests) that used bioclimatic ecosystem process and climate variables as predictors. We obtained over 50% accuracy across 13 mapped PVTs for our study area. We then applied future climate projections as climate input to the Random Forest model to generate future PVT maps, and used field data describing the occurrence of tree and non-tree species in each PVT category to model and map species distribution for current and future climate. These maps were then compared to two previous SDM mapping efforts with over 80% agreement and equivalent accuracy. Because PVTs represent the biophysical potential of the landscape to support vegetation communities as opposed to the vegetation that currently exists, they can be readily linked to climate forecasts and correlated with other, climate-sensitive ecological processes significant in land management, such as fire regimes and site productivity.

Adaptation of plasticity to projected maximum temperatures and across climatically defined bioregions

Resilience to environmental stressors due to climate warming is influenced by local adaptations, including plastic responses. The recent literature has focused on genomic signatures of climatic adaptation, but little is known about how plastic capacity may be influenced by biogeographic and evolutionary processes. We investigate phenotypic plasticity as a target of climatic selection, hypothesizing that lineages that evolved in warmer climates will exhibit greater plastic adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress. This was experimentally tested by comparing transcriptomic responses within and among temperate, subtropical, and desert ecotypes of Australian rainbowfish subjected to contemporary and projected summer temperatures. Critical thermal maxima were estimated, and ecological niches delineated using bioclimatic modeling. A comparative phylogenetic expression variance and evolution model was used to assess plastic and evolved changes in gene expression. Although 82% of all expressed genes were found in the three ecotypes, they shared expression patterns in only 5 out of 236 genes that responded to the climate change experiment. A total of 532 genes showed signals of adaptive (i.e., genetic-based) plasticity due to ecotype-specific directional selection, and 23 of those responded to projected summer temperatures. Network analyses demonstrated centrality of these genes in thermal response pathways. The greatest adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress was shown by the subtropical ecotype, followed by the desert and temperate ecotypes. Our findings indicate that vulnerability to climate change will be highly influenced by biogeographic factors, emphasizing the value of integrative assessments of climatic adaptive traits for accurate estimation of population and ecosystem responses.

Potential Range of Bulbocodium versicolor (Ker-Gawl.) Spreng. (Colchicaceae, Liliopsida) in Russia

The article presents a bioclimatic model of the potential range of Bulbocodium versicolor in European Russia. To build the model, we analyzed a matrix containing 166 B. versicolor localities in the studied region; the analysis was carried out in the SDMtoolbox program using the climatic paramaters from the WorldClim open database. The model demonstrates that, given the available dataset on the modern climatic conditions, B. versicolor may occur in a wider geographical range comprising, at the very least, the Belgorod, Voronezh, Volgograd, Lipetsk, Penza, Rostov and Saratov provinces. Also, within European Russia, the most favorable conditions for B. versicolorare found in most of the Voronezh and Volgograd provinces as well as in some areas of the Right Bank and Left Bank of the Volga River adjacent to the Volga Upland (in the Saratov province). The maximum occurrence probability is 70–100% while the average occurrence probability is 40– 60%. The maximum contribution to the model is made by the precipitation of the warmest and most humid quarter (June–August); a smaller contribution is made by the average temperature of the coldest (December–February) and warmest (June – August) quarters as well as by the average annual precipitation. The least contribution is made by the precipitation of the most humid month (July) and the driest quarter (March–May). Finally, we conclude that bioclimatic model facilitates a better understanding of the geographical distribution of the species in question.

Porous Mass: Terra-Cotta Redefined Through Advanced Fabrication

Terra-Cotta Grotto prototype tests the bioclimatic conditioning and experiential qualities of a porous mass by digitally carving out walls from a stack of terra-cotta rain screen panels. The project explores engagement with ambient flows and ecological context through a heavy yet porous material assembly. This thick assembly uses the resilient and responsive properties of architectural ceramic materials and the hidden form of the ubiquitous unit of architectural terra-cotta rain screen panels to create an enclosing volume. Taking the traditional grotto as a bioclimatic model, this paper introduces two drivers for the project: the material properties derived from terra-cotta and the application of a CAMel plug-in interface for an OMAX waterjet as the technical facilitator for form making.