Bioclimatic Models Research Articles

Fish distribution shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: Using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species

Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthropogenic climate change effects. In this study, we investigated the directionality and the magnitude of the distribution shifts (i.e., range size, gravity centroids, and margins) in marine environment suitability for six main MEO fish species within the Northeast Atlantic expected for the end of the 21st century. In the framework of this study, we have distinguished ‘sub-boreal’ from ‘sub-tropical’ species. The ‘hierarchical filters’ concept was adopted for modelling the potential species distributions and combined the predictions of i) a bioclimatic model with ii) a habitat model. The bioclimatic model is based on large-scale and time-variant variables while variables of the habitat model are fine-grained and time-invariant. Two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios are tested: an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic one (SSP5-8.5). We applied this framework using international databases of biodiversity occurrences, ensemble forecasting producing consensual predictions, and innovative indices of distribution shifts. A visible north-westward shift was predicted for all six species in our study area. However, the northward expansion was greater for ‘sub-tropical’ than for ‘sub-boreal’ species due to faster gravity centroid displacement shifts and faster margins shifts. These range shifts may lead to major ecological impacts (e.g., changes in recruitment to estuarine and coastal nurseries, as well as changes in spawning grounds) that may alter populations' connectivity.

Analysis of current and future bioclimatic suitability for C. arabica production in Ethiopia.

The coffee sector in Ethiopia is the livelihood of more than 20% of the population and accounts more than 25% of the country's foreign exchange earnings. Climate change is expected to affect the climatic suitability of coffee in Ethiopia, and this would have implications for global coffee output, the national economy, and farmers' livelihoods in Ethiopia. The objective of this paper is to assess the current and future impacts of climate change on bioclimatic suitability to C.arbica production in Ethiopia. Based on the current distribution of coffee production areas and climate change predictions from HadGEM2 and CCSM2 models and using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) bioclimatic modeling approach, future changes in climatic suitability for C. arabica were predicted. Coffee production sites in Ethiopia were geo-referenced and used as input in the MAXENT model. The findings indicated that climate change will increase the suitable growing area for coffee by about 44.2% and 30.37% under HadGEM2 and CCSM2 models, respectively, by 2080 in Ethiopia. The study also revealed a westward and northwestward shift in the climatic suitability to C. arabica production in Ethiopia. This indicates that the suitability of some areas will continue with some adaptation practice, whilst others currently suitable will be unsuitable, yet others that are unsuitable will be suitable for arabica coffee production. These findings are intended to support stakeholders in the coffee sector in developing strategies for reducing the vulnerability of coffee production to climate change. Site-specific strategies should be developed to build a more climate resilient coffee livelihood in the changing climate.

Insights into the Australian mid-Holocene climate using downscaled climate models

Abstract. The mid-Holocene climate of Australia and the equatorial tropics of the Indonesian–Australian monsoon region is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Each model is used to simulate the pre-industrial (1850) and the mid-Holocene (6000 years before 1950) climate. The results of these four simulations are compared to existing bioclimatic modelling of temperature and precipitation. The finer-resolution WRF simulations reduce the bias between the model and bioclimatic data results for three of the four variables available in the proxy data set. The model results show that temperatures over southern Australia at the mid-Holocene and in the pre-industrial period were similar, and temperatures were slightly warmer during the mid-Holocene over northern Australia and into the tropics compared to the pre-industrial. During the mid-Holocene, precipitation was generally reduced over northern Australia and in the Indonesian–Australian monsoon region, particularly during summertime. The results highlight the improved value of using finer-resolution models such as WRF to simulate the palaeoclimate.

Climate change is likely to favour polyvoltine and invasive insect species, leading to more damage in the mid-latitude vineyards of Neuchatel

Climate change has major impacts on viticultural ecosystems worldwide, affecting wine production. Apart from direct impacts, the increase in temperature during the development season is likely to favour insect species, including polyvoltine ones, leading potentially to more damage in the vineyards. In this study, we examined the extent to which changes in mean temperature over the development season (March through September) can potentially increase the voltinism change the phenology and influence the reproduction of pest species in the vineyard area of Neuchatel (Switzerland). We first analysed long-term daily mean temperature data from 1970 to 2022 at the meteorological station of Neuchâtel. Then we used two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to analyse daily mean temperature during the period 2023–2099. For both of these periods, we computed the number of growing degree days (GDDs) above 10 °C, as it is the base development temperature for many polyvoltine pest species. We then used specific bioclimatic models for two major pest species, namely the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) and the American grapevine leafhopper (Scaphoideus titanus) to compare the current and future suitability of these two species to the air temperature conditions in Neuchâtel. Our results show an increase of about 425 GDDs since 1970 (+85 GDDs per decade). According to our models, values will continue to rise during the next decades, with a trend ranging from +28 GDDs per decade (RCP4.5) to +100 GDDs per decade (RCP8.5). This could lead to additional generations of polyvoltine pest species. A third annual generation can be expected in one year out of four for the European grapevine moth by the middle of the 21st century. While temperature conditions are currently moderately favourable for the American grapevine leafhopper, they are predicted to become highly favourable by the middle and the end of the century under both scenarios. These trends mean that climate change is likely to increase pest damage risks in the vineyards of Neuchatel in the future. Pest regulation will remain crucial in limiting major impacts on wine production.

BIOCLIMATIC MODELING OF THE SPECIES JURINEA SCHACHIMORDANICA (ASTERACEAE)

For more than 60 years, herbarium specimens of this species have not been recollected and targeted field studies have not been conducted. In 2023-2024, bioclimatic modeling was carried out on the basis of targeted field research in Shahimardan and the Kyrgyz Republic (Batkent; Okhna) region of the Fergana Valley. According to the RCP 2.6 (2061-2080) climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 0.4-1.6 °C will create many potentially suitable areas in the form of the regions of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It is directly related to precipitation (Bio19) and elevation (Elv.) in the coldest quarter. Under the RCP8.5_2070s climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 1.4-2.6 °C has replaced scattered high-level suitable areas with medium-level suitable areas. Under both climate scenarios, temperature increases of 0.4–1.6 °C and 1.4–2.6 °C did not adversely affect the species' main hotspots.

Potential Changes in Distribution of Major Conifers and Their Seed Mass across Siberia by the Mid-Twenty-First Century in a Warming Climate

Research highlights: At the turn of the 21st century, there were more forest territories found disturbed by both natural processes (climate change, wildfires, insect outbreaks, permafrost thawing, etc.) and anthropogenic interferences (air pollution, clearcuts, etc.). Seed collecting, then growing seedlings in forest nurseries, and then planting seedlings over lost forest areas are the forestry measures needed to restore the forest after disturbances. Goals were to construct bioclimatic models of ranges and seed mass of major Siberian conifers (Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), Siberian fir (Abies sibirica Ledeb.), Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.), Siberian larches (Larix sibirica Ledeb., L. gmelini (Rupr) Rupr, and L. cajanderi Mayr.) and Pinus sylvestris L.) and predict their potential change in a warming climate by the mid-century. Methods: Multi-year seed mass data were derived from the literature, seed station data, and were collected in the field. Climate data (January and July data and annual precipitation) were derived from published Russian reference books and websites on climate. Bioclimatic indices (growing degree-days > 5 C, negative degree-days < 0 C, and annual moisture index) were calculated from January and July temperatures and annual precipitation for both contemporary and the 2050s (2040–2060) climates using the general circulation model INM-CM5-0 and two climate change scenarios, ssp126 and ssp585, from CMIP6. Our bioclimatic range models (envelope and MaxEnt models) and regression seed mass models for major conifers were built based on these bioclimatic indices. Additionally, their ranges were limited by the permafrost border, which divided the forest area into the permafrost-free zone, where five conifers are able to grow, and the permafrost zone, where only one conifer, Dahurian larch, is able to survive. Results: Under warmed climates, the ranges of all Siberian conifers would expand 1.5-fold due to the decrease in the permafrost zone, except Dahurian larch, which would lose 5–20% of its coverage due to permafrost retreat. Conifers shifting northward would be slower than predicted only by warmed climates because permafrost would thaw slower than climates would warm. Scots pine may expand by up to 60%, covering dryer lands in the south. Future climates were found to favor seed mass increase for major Siberian conifers and for heavier seed to shift northward. Our major conifers differ by the type of seed dispersal mode: zoochoric, animal (Siberian pine) and anemochoric, and wind-dispersed (other five trees). The seed masses of the five anemochoric conifers varied within the range of 1.5–15 g of 1000 seeds, which is about 40–50-fold less than that of zoochoric Siberian pine. Site climate explained about 28–65% of the seed mass variation for the five anemochoric trees and only 11% for Siberian pine (zoochoric tree). This finding needs additional research to explain the reasons. Conclusions: Warmed climates would favor the expansion of the ranges of major Siberian conifers and their seed mass to be heavier, which would support the high-quality seed production for forest well-being and its restoration in Siberia.

Потенциальный биоклиматический ареал Ephedra distachya L.

The paper presents modern data on the distribution of Ephedra distachya L. an attempt was made to model the bioclimatic range of the species using the maximum entropy method and compare the obtained data with the range defined in the report «Flora of the USSR», taking into account additions from the monographs «Flora of the European Part of the USSR» and «Geography of Trees plants of the USSR». MaxEnt modeling of the potential range of E. distachya was carried out on the basis of the herbarium collections of Saratov State University (SARAT), the GBIF database and the Plantarium electronic atlas. A total of 6973 species location points were used. In accordance with the obtained bioclimatic model, in the modern climate the most favorable conditions for the existence of the species are on the coasts of the Black, Azov, Marmara, Mediterranean and Caspian Seas, in the territories of the former AzSSR, Ukrainian SSR and Georgian SSR. In the RSFSR (modern Russian Federation), the species is optimally located in the Volga, North Caucasus and Southern federal districts. A sharp narrowing of the potential range is observed in the Ural and Central Federal Districts of the Russian Federation, as well as in the territories of the former TurSSR and KazSSR. The accuracy of the model is confirmed by the high AUC (Area Under Curve) score, which is 0.933 for training data and 0.930 for test data. Climatic parameters have been established that influence the distribution of the species, in which its existence is optimal. The greatest contribution to the construction of the model after permutation was made by isothermality (32%), average annual temperature (23.1%), average monthly daily temperature amplitude (12.4%), as well as the maximum temperature of the warmest month (11.6%). A correlation analysis of the parameters that made the greatest contribution after permutation was carried out. When estimating the error using the jackknife method, a variable (average annual temperature) was obtained that contains the most information that is not in other variables; the exclusion of this variable leads to deterioration of the model.

First Red List of Ecosystems assessment of a tropical glacier ecosystem to diagnose the pathways towards imminent collapse

Abstract Tropical glaciers are rapidly disappearing, particularly in isolated mountain peaks below 5,000 m elevation. These glaciers are fundamental substrates for unique cryogenic ecosystems in high tropical environments where the ice, melting water and rocky substrate sustain microbiological communities and other meso- and macro-biota. This study uses the Red List of Ecosystems guidelines to diagnose the collapse of the tropical glacier ecosystem of the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. We undertook the assessment with existing estimates of glacier ice extent, indirect historical estimates of ice mass balance and global mechanistic models of future ice mass balance. We complemented these with additional statistical analysis of trends and bioclimatic suitability modelling to calculate and predict rates of decline and relative severity of degradation in selected ecosystem indicators. The evidence suggests an extreme risk of collapse (Critically Endangered) because of a prolonged and acute reduction in ice extent and changes in climatic conditions that are leading to the complete loss of ice mass. The ice substrate has declined 90% in the last 20 years, and observed acceleration of the rate of decline suggests it will probably disappear within the next 5 years. Loss of ice substrate will trigger an immediate loss of supraglacial, englacial and subglacial biotic compartments and initiate a decades-long succession of forefield vegetation. However, ongoing inventories of native biota and monitoring of ecosystem transitions can provide valuable insights and lessons for other ecosystems facing similar risks. The Red List of Ecosystems assessment protocol provides a useful framework for comparative analysis of cryogenic ecosystems.

Assessing uncertainty in bioclimatic modelling: a comparison of two high-resolution climate datasets in northern Patagonia

Climate change is reshaping forest ecosystems, presenting urgent and complex challenges that demand attention. In this context, research that quantifies interactions between climate and forests is substantial. However, modelling at a spatial resolution relevant for ecological processes presents a significant challenge, especially given the diverse geographical contexts in which it is applied. In our study, we aimed to assess the effects of applying CHELSA v.2.1 and WorldClim v2.1 data on bioclimatic analysis within the Río Puelo catchment area in northern Patagonia. To achieve this, we inter-compared and evaluated present and future bioclimates, drawing on data from both climate datasets. Our findings underscore substantial consistency between both datasets for temperature variables, confirming the reliability of both for temperature analysis. However, a strong contrast emerges in precipitation predictions, with significant discrepancies highlighted by minimal overlap in bioclimatic classes, particularly in steep and elevated terrains. Thus, while CHELSA and WorldClim provide valuable temperature data for northern Patagonia, their use for precipitation analysis requires careful consideration of their limitations and potential inaccuracies. Nevertheless, our bioclimatic analyses of both datasets under different scenarios reveal a uniform decline in mountain climates currently occupied by N. pumilio, with projections suggesting a sharp decrease in their coverage under future climate scenarios.

Evolution the Relationship Between Physiologically Equivalent Temperature and Some Meteorological Parameters for Basra City, Iraq

Background: Physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) is highly efficient in evaluating the thermal component of any given microclimate as a single thermal index. The assist stakeholders in understanding and interpreting existing bioclimatic, allowing them to make any required modifications and become more robust to predicted climate change. Objective: This study assesses the relationship between Physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) and some Meteorological Parameters. Methods: The data for this study includes observed mean monthly air temperature values, relative humidity, and wind speed for the period (2001-2020). The data was acquired from “Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS)” stations for Basra city. The radiation and Human Bioclimatic (RayMan) model were used to simulate bioclimatic indices (SET, UTCI, PET, PMV). Results: The findings revealed that the greatest mean values for PMV (4.3), SET (36.3), PET (45.5), and UTCI (42.1) were seen in July and August. The measurements have a nice thermal sensation of PMV (-0.5 - 1.9), SET (19.2- 29), PET (18.1- 31.8), and UTCI (15.9 - 28.7) is most noticeable in the months of (March, April, and October). The results showed the PET values (cool) and (Slightly cool) between (9- 18.3) for January, February, March, and December. The value of UTCI was between (5.9- 8.5) within classes (Slight cold stress), the values of PMV (-2.6- (-2.1)) within classes (strong cold stress) and (Slight cold stress) and the value of SET was (10.2- 12.4) within classes (Slight cold stress). Conclusions: Correlations between PET and air temperature (0.99), indicating good agreement between PET and air temperature, and relative humidity (0.96). PET and wind speed (R2=0.56). The scattering pattern of PET and other thermal indices shows that all indexes have a significant correlation coefficient, between PET and UTCI (R2=0.99), between PET and SET (R2=0.98), and (R2=0.99) between PET and PMV.

Tree species distributions in the United States and Canada under climate from 20,000 years ago to year 2100

Current locations of species may not be suited to future climate, resulting in ranges that shift to higher latitudes, with potential for range expansion or contraction in extent. To identify potential shifts in distributions of 119 tree species centered in the United States and Canada, I modeled species occurrences under current climate and then predicted to past (20, 10, and 6 thousand years ago) and future climates (six projections during 2071–2100 for North American warming of 4.3 °C to 8.8 °C), with a singular focus on the climate space of tree species, or bioclimatic envelope models. Mean accuracies of withheld samples for models, based on climate of 1900 to 1990, were 0.97, with an average of 6.2 variables per model; annual temperature and temperature of the warmest quarter generally were the most important variables. Based on model predictions under past and future climate, centers of species distributions shifted an average of 565 km latitudinally since climate 20,000 years ago and 440 km to 1065 km shifts were expected in response to end-of-century climates. Overall, 64 tree species may gain more area than lose area that matches current climate space under future climate, whereas 36 species may lose potential climate space, with relative stability for 19 species. Canada and the mountainous western U.S., and National Forests in the mountainous western U.S., were likely to gain climate space appropriate for these species, particularly species of the eastern U.S. Conversely, greatest number of species were predicted to be lost from most of the eastern half of the U.S.; National Forests in the southeastern U.S., particularly in Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas, may lose 25 to 50 of these tree species. Isolation of potential dynamics for tree species already native to northern North America demonstrated that a large pool of diverse species from the southeastern U.S. was predicted to have suitable climate space in Canada and the western U.S. It may be beneficial for managers to become familiar with tree species south or east of their regions, particularly climate-tolerant pine and oak species, to determine which ones are desirable to manage for the future.

The tale of the black viper: distribution and bioclimatic niche modelling of melanistic Vipera aspis in Italy

The tale of the black viper: distribution and bioclimatic niche modelling of melanistic Vipera aspis in Italy

Phylogeography and bioclimatic models revealed a complicated genetic structure and future range shifts of Lymantria monacha L.

AbstractThe phylogeography of economically important forest pests is important for understanding their demographic and evolutionary history. Linking the genetic data obtained with the bioclimatic models helps reveal future demographic trends of the pest species studied. Lymantria monacha is a polyphagous species that feeds on numerous coniferous and deciduous trees throughout the Palaearctic and is known to cause catastrophic defoliation, particularly in Europe. In addition, data from various mapping programmes over the last decade have revealed changes in the distribution of L. monacha. Therefore, in this study, we decided to clarify the evolutionary and demographic history of this important forest species using genetic data complemented by bioclimatic modelling. Our results confirmed the systematic status and monophyly of L. monacha. However, the lack of a geographical pattern between the studied regions suggests that the current genetic structure may be the result of recent dispersal events. Moreover, we found that the areas of high genetic diversity are consistent with potential past range shifts and survival of changes in climate and host plant availability. These two main variables also seem to determine the future range of L. monacha. Also, our modelling confirmed a poleward shift in its range and with a significant retraction from its current southern edge of distribution.

Impact of climate change on the reproductive diapause and voltinism of the carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis

The impacts of climate change on the development of insects are of great concern due to potential alterations in population dynamics and pest pressure. The carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis, is a major agricultural pest, and its development is influenced by temperature and photoperiod. In this study, our aim was to investigate the impact of temperature increases on the voltinism and reproductive diapause of the carrot weevil under field conditions and bioclimatic models. Field observations were conducted over two growing seasons using structures that allowed for temperature increases. The developmental stages of the carrot weevil, including female reproductive status, oviposition and larval stage, were monitored weekly to measure the proportion of individuals undergoing an additional generation. Concurrently, bioclimatic models were used to simulate the probability of a second generation under current (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) climates, considering a lower and a higher change in emission scenarios. Results showed that rising temperatures led to an increase in the proportion of carrot weevils undergoing inhibition of the reproductive diapause and a higher number of eggs laid in the field. The models indicated a substantial rise in the probability of a second generation developing, from 24% to 37% to 62%–99% under current and future climates, respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential for significant alterations in carrot weevil population dynamics, resulting in increased pest pressure on crops. Further research is needed to fully understand the implications of these findings and to develop effective adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impacts of global warming on insect populations and agriculture.

Analysis of the Early Pleistocene small mammals from Pirro Nord 13 (Apricena, southern Italy) and their implications for reconstructing the palaeoenvironment of the early human occupation in Europe

The Pirro Nord quarry (Apricena, Foggia, southern Italy, 41°48′6″N, 15°23′5″ E) is a well-known palaeontological and archaeological locality comprising an abundant and diverse Early Pleistocene vertebrate assemblage of mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles related to the Late Villafranchian and Early Biharian mammal ages. In this study, we describe the small mammal assemblages (insectivores, rodents, and bats) excavated between 2010 and 2022 to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment surrounding the site using Habitat Weighting and the Bioclimatic model methods. The rodent assemblage comprises mostly Allophaiomys cf. ruffoi, Apodemus sp., and Hystrix refossa, whereas Eliomys cf. intermedius was reported for the first time. Insectivores includes Talpa gr. minor-caeca; Asoriculus sp.; Erinaceus praeglacialis; and Sorex sp. Bats are represented by Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, Rhinolophus gr. euryale-mehelyi, Myotis gr. myotis-blythii, Myotis sp., and Miniopterus schreibersii. Landscape reconstruction attested to the presence of a rich and diverse environment with open areas and forest patches surrounding the Pirro Nord 13 site. The climate was slightly colder than that of current times in the same area, with higher precipitation. The presence of different ecosystems near the sites constituted suitable conditions for the first human dispersion in Europe, as already revealed by evidence from Barranco León D, Atapuerca TE7–14, and Fuente Nueva 3 elsewhere on the Iberian Peninsula. The study of small mammal assemblages improves our understanding of the chronological boundaries of the human occupation of Pirro Nord 13, adding important information in the context of the first peopling of the Mediterranean region between 1.6 and 1.3 million years ago.

Climatic variability in the Armenian Highlands as the backdrop to hominin population dynamics 50–25 ka

The impact of Late Pleistocene climatic oscillations, volcanism and the diverse terrain of the Armenian Highlands affected hominin population dynamics and movements through the region. To test different scenarios for the period 50–25 ka regarding expansion, adaptive response, intra-population interactions and extinction, we need local on-site paleoclimatic data found in association with hominin occupations. However, this approach has been hampered by the dearth and highly uneven spatiotemporal recovery of paleoclimatic data from prehistoric sites across the region. In this study, we analyze multiple assemblages of fossil micromammals from the Late Middle Paleolithic (LMP) Lusakert-1 rockshelter (two fossil-yielding strata; <55 ka) and Early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) Aghitu-3 Cave (four fossil-yielding strata; ∼39–24 ka) using geometric morphometric-aided taxonomy, to quantify the representation of different species among the abundant and diverse arvicoline genera (Microtus and Chionomys; mean = 58% of assemblages). We combined this approach with quantitative species-level paleoclimatic reconstructions (Bioclimatic Model; 14 rodent taxa) to determine changes in habitat composition as well as temperature and precipitation shifts during the Late Middle–Early Upper Paleolithic. Taphonomic analysis was conducted to establish isotaphonomy among the assemblages. The analysis shows higher than present-day absolute temperatures for the series of occupations at both Lusakert-1 and Aghitu-3, making it unlikely that hominin activity at the sites coincided with extreme cold-climate phases. A multivariate comparison of the taxonomic abundances (genus level) across a wider sample of regional Middle Paleolithic (MP) and Upper Paleolithic (UP) cave sites (Hovk-1, Kudaro-1, Mezmaiskaya, Satsurblia and Dzudzuana) indicates the possibility of cold-period occupation at only two of the sites, Mezmaiskaya Layers 3 and 2 and Kudaro-1 Layer 3. We surmise that the manufacturers of LMP lithic industries in the Caucasus were well adapted to these challenging environments, thus undermining arguments that rapid climate change through the LMP/EUP period could alone have determined the course of population dynamics in this region.

Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios.

Large old Ginkgo biloba trees (LOGTs), with profound ecological and cultural significance in China, face increasing threats from climate change and human activities. We employed the BIOCLIM and DOMAIN species distribution models to predict their spatial patterns under the present climate and doubled-CO2 climate change scenario in 2100. We collected 604 validated LOGT occurrence records and data on 19 bioclimate factors for the analysis. Our study yielded a LOGT geographic distribution pattern covering a wide latitudinal belt extending from south subtropical to temperate zones in central and eastern China, concentrating in low elevations and coastal regions. The principal component analysis identified the dominant bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, namely annual precipitation and low winter temperatures. BIOCLIM and DOMAIN generated predicted suitable habitats that match the present distribution range well. However, under the future climate scenario, the models indicated habitat retentions mainly in the core distribution areas and habitat losses mainly in the southern edge of the present range and scattered pockets elsewhere. Some retained habitats, including excellent ones, will suffer from fragmentation. The predicted new habitats may permit some range expansion and migration but are beset by small patch size and large interpatch distance, bringing fragmentation and gene flow restrictions. The anticipated projected range decline highlights considerable threats climate change poses to the long-term survival of the precious natural-cum-cultural resource. Understanding the distribution patterns and underlying drivers and distillation of practical conservation measures can foster sustainable management vis-a-vis the looming global change.

Bioclimatic Modeling of Current Geographic Distribution and Future Range Shifts of Selected Edible Mushrooms in Nigeria

Mushrooms, as part of the fungal kingdom, are essential components in nutrient cycling and carbon retention in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the impact of climate change on fungi in their natural habitat is difficult because most species reside below the soil surface. As a result of few reported occurrence records in Nigeria, we model the species distribution of two edible mushrooms, namely, Pleurotus ostreatus and Macrolepiota procera, using MaxEnt to predict the potential future range shifts under different climate change scenarios. In this study, we have calculated high model performances based on the Area Under Curve (AUC) values generated (0.778-0.873). In the modeling approach, the two species were predicted to have an expansion of their localized fundamental niches, pointing to the influence of precipitation as an important macroclimatic predictor. Highly suitable habitats for the two species were discovered primarily in Southern Nigeria, with less habitat suitability in the Northcentral zone in 2050. The predicted models in this study do not tell missing geographical information, which could be achieved through citizen science for occurrence records and biodiversity conservation. However, they may be used to explore potentialities, such as understanding the possible distribution patterns of the two mushroom species in Nigeria. This can serve as a useful baseline to enhance the utilization and conservation efforts of these macrofungi as a result of climate change, habitat loss, and rapid urbanization.

A two-step species distribution modeling to disentangle the effect of habitat and bioclimatic covariates on Psacothea hilaris, a potentially invasive species

Integrating host plants in distribution modeling of phytophagous species and disentangling the effect of habitat and bioclimatic variables are key aspects to produce reliable predictions when the aim is to identify suitable areas outside species’ native range. To this aim, we implemented a framework of Species Distribution Model aimed at predicting potential suitable areas of establishment for the beetle Psacothea hilaris across the world. Since habitat (including host plants) and bioclimatic variables affect species distribution according to processes acting at different geographical scales, we modeled these variables separately. For the species native range, we fitted a habitat (HSM) and a bioclimatic (BSM) suitability model calibrated on a local and a large scale, respectively; the overall suitability map was obtained as the spatial product of HSM and BSM projection maps. ROC, TSS and Cohen’s Kappa obtained in validation confirmed a good predictive performance of modeling framework. Within HSM, host plants played a substantial effect on species presence probability, while among bioclimatic variables, precipitation of the warmer quarter and isothermality were the most important. Native HSM and BSM models were used to realize an overall suitability map at world scale. At global scale, many areas resulted suitable for habitat, some for bioclimate, and few for both conditions; indeed, if the species would not be able to modify its bioclimatic niche, it might not be considered a major invasive species. However, the high rate of range expansion documented for P. hilaris in Northern Italy, a poorly suitable bioclimatic area, suggests a plasticity of the species that requires increasing the level of attention to its invasive potential.

Macroclimate and canopy characteristics regulate forest understory microclimatic temperature offsets across China

AbstractForest microclimates can contrast substantially from the macroclimate outside forests. These microclimates regulate understory biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Studies have quantified the global patterns and driving factors of forest understory temperature offsets, but data from China were almost missing, making the global assessment incomplete. To fill this knowledge gap, we quantitatively synthesized 494 paired observations from China extracted from 91 publications to quantify mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature offsets (Tmin). Results showed that (1) forest canopies significantly buffered understory Tmean and Tmax against macroclimatic temperature, with average offsets of 1.0 and 1.5°C, respectively, while understory Tmin offsets were not significantly different from zero; (2) forest type (broadleaved, mixed, vs. coniferous) and forest location (rural vs. urban) did not affect Tmean, Tmax or Tmin offsets, but climate zone and season showed significant impacts; and (3) macroclimatic temperature, wind speed, tree height and canopy density also impacted temperature offsets, although their effects varied among Tmean, Tmax and Tmin. Our results complement the global assessment of forest buffering capacity, and reiterate the necessity for incorporating microclimatic variability into future bioclimatic modelling of species demography and distributions.