Bioclimatic Models Research Articles

Exploring invasiveness and versatility of used microhabitats of the globally invasive Gambusia holbrooki

Non-native species can lead to severe impacts on invaded ecosystems, including the decline of ecosystem function through deleterious impacts on species diversity. The successful establishment of non-native species in new environments is the first barrier a species must overcome, ultimately depending on its ability to either cope with or adapt to local site-specific conditions. Despite the widespread distribution and ecological consequences of many freshwater invaders, site-specific and climatic preferences are often unknown. This is also the case of the Eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki, a global invader considered as a pervasive threat to endemic species. Here, we determined the ecological features and preferred site-specific conditions of G. holbrooki in Türkiye, which spans a wide range of diverse biogeographically distinct ecosystems by surveying populations from 130 localities in 2016 and 2017. Gambusia holbrooki were detected by hand-net in 48 of these sites (19 lotic, 29 lentic). It showed a preference for shallow waters with medium sized rocks, and abundances differed spatially across a latitudinal gradient and was influenced predominantly by variations in pH. The only other factors predicting its presence were low current velocities and gravel substrate, highlighting its ecological versatility in utilising a wide range of microhabitats. Bioclimatic models suggest that G. holbrooki is found in areas with a wide average annual temperature ranging from 10 to 20 °C, but with temperature not being a limiting factor to its invasion. Gambusia holbrooki shows a preference for xeric freshwater ecosystems and endorheic basins, as well as temperate coastal rivers, temperate upland rivers, temperate floodplain rivers and wetlands, and tropical and subtropical coastal rivers. These results, particularly the wide occurrence with only few limiting factors, emphasise the invasion potential of mosquitofish and should substantiate the need for localised invasive species management and conservation efforts, particularly in smaller or insular areas where mosquitofish and endemic fish species co-exist.

Interactions of moisture and light drive lichen growth and the response to climate change scenarios - experimental evidence for Lobaria pulmonaria.

There is growing interest in the functional ecology of poikilohydric nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVPs), including 'cryptogamic' bryophytes and lichens. These organisms are structurally important in many ecosystems, contributing substantially to ecosystem function and services, while also being sensitive to climate change. Previous research has quantified the climate change response of poikilohydric NVPs using predictive bioclimatic models with standard climate variables including precipitation totals and temperature averages. This study aimed for an improved functional understanding of their climate change response based on their growth rate sensitivity to moisture and light. We conducted a 24-month experiment to monitor lichen hydration and growth. We accounted for two well-known features in the ecology of poikilohydric NVPs, and exemplified here for a structurally dominant lichen epiphyte, Lobaria pulmonaria: (i) sensitivity to multiple sources of atmospheric moisture including rain, condensed dew-formation and water vapour, and (ii) growth determined by the amount of time hydrated in the light, driving photosynthesis, referred to as the Iwet hypothesis. First, we found that even within an oceanic high-rainfall environment, lichen hydration was better explained by vapour pressure deficit (VPD) than precipitation totals. Second, growth at a monthly resolution was positively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the light, and negatively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the dark. Using multimodel averaging to project growth models for an ensemble of future climate change scenarios, we demonstrated reduced net growth for L. pulmonaria by the late 21st Century, explained by extended climate dryness and lichen desiccation for periods when there is otherwise sufficient light to drive photosynthesis. The results further emphasise a key issue of photoperiodism when constructing functionally relevant models to understand the risk of climate change, especially for poikilohydric NVPs.

Bioclimatic analysis of potential worldwide production of spring‐type camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] seeded in the spring

AbstractCamelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] is a Brassicaceae oilseed that is gaining interest worldwide as low‐maintenance crop for diverse biobased applications. One of the most important factors determining its productivity is climate. We conducted a bioclimate analysis in order to analyze the relationship between climatic factors and the productivity of spring‐type camelina seeded in the spring, and to identify regions of the world with potential for camelina in this scenario. Using the modelling tool CLIMEX, a bioclimatic model was developed for spring‐seeded spring‐type camelina to match distribution, reported seed yields and phenology records in North America. Distribution, yield, and phenology data from outside of North America were used as independent datasets for model validation and demonstrated that model projections agreed with published distribution records, reported spring‐seeded camelina yields, and closely predicted crop phenology in Europe, South America, and Asia. Sensitivity analysis, used to quantify the response of camelina to changes in precipitation and temperature, indicated that crop performance was more sensitive to moisture than temperature index parameters, suggesting that the yield potential of spring‐seeded camelina may be more strongly impacted by water‐limited conditions than by high temperatures. Incremental climate scenarios also revealed that spring‐seeded camelina production will exhibit yield shifts at the continental scale as temperature and precipitation deviate from current conditions. Yield data were compared with indices of climatic suitability to provide estimates of potential worldwide camelina productivity. This information was used to identify new areas where spring‐seeded camelina could be grown and areas that may permit expanded production, including eastern Europe, China, eastern Russia, Australia and New Zealand. Our model is the first to have taken a systematic approach to determine suitable regions for potential worldwide production of spring‐seeded camelina.

The post-diapause vibrational behavior, motility, and survival of the brown marmorated stink bug Halyomorpha halys (Stål) adults at different temperatures

Substrate-borne vibrational communication is common in pentatomids. Although several works exist on the vibrational communication of Halyomorpha halys, its vibrational behavior post diapause has not been investigated. In this study, we recorded H. halys overwintered adults using laser doppler vibrometers at three temperatures: 10 °C (inactivity), 18 °C (breaking of diapause), and 25 °C (peak of mating activity). The aim was to assess the effect of temperature on the signaling, motility, and survival of H. halys. The insects were sexed into different cages and recorded separately or joined with a cage of the opposite sex. We calculated the total time spent on signaling and walking per replica. The males predominantly emitted male signal 1 (MS1) throughout the four months of recordings. The females exclusively emitted female signal 2 (FS2) when joined with the opposite sex cage the first two months of recordings. Interestingly, they also started FS2 signaling when recorded separately, after two months. No signaling was recorded at 10 °C. At 25 °C, the signaling latency time before vibrational signaling was 24 h compared to 23 days at 18 °C. The short latency time at 25 °C correlated with a higher death rate in early stages of recording. Male walking activity was significantly higher in joined cages at 18 °C and 25 °C, suggesting the increased searching behavior near the opposite sex. Overwintered H. halys could adapt to different conditions whereas low temperatures maintain the diapause which is characterized by no signaling activity. Our results provide a foundation for bioclimatic modeling of climate change effects on H. halys and insights into the use of vibrational playbacks for mass trapping and monitoring as control techniques.

Geographical distribution of two major quarantine fruit flies (Bactrocera minax Enderlein and Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel) in Sichuan Basin based on four SDMs.

Both Bactrocera minax and Bactrocera dorsalis are phytophagous insects, and their larvae are latent feeders, which cause great damage and economic losses to agriculture production and trade. This study aimed to provide a scientific reference for researching and developing the feasible countermeasures against these two pests. Based on the distribution data of B. minax and B. dorsalis in China, obtained from the Chinese herbaria, investigation and literature. Four niche models (Garp, Bioclim, Domain, and Maxent) were used to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of both pests and to build prediction models of the potential distribution in Sichuan Basin. Combined with two statistical standards, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa, the validity of prediction models were analyzed and compared. The results show that: the average AUC values of the four models are all above 0.90, and the average Kappa values are all above 0.75, indicating that the four models are suitable for predicting the potential distribution area of B. minax and B.dorsalis. The annual range of temperature, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the mean temperature in the warmest quarter, the annual precipitation, and the precipitation in driest month are the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of B. minax, while the mean diurnal temperature range, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the seasonal temperature variations and the precipitation in driest month affect the potential distribution of B. dorsalis. The suitable areas for B. minax are mainly concentrated in the eastern of Sichuan Basin, while the suitable areas for B. dorsalis are concentrated in the southeastern. Except for the Bioclim model, the highly-suitable area for both pests predicted by the other three models are all greater than 15.94 × 104 km2 and the moderately-suitable areas are greater than 13.57 × 104 km2. In conclusion, the suitable areas for both pests in Sichuan Basin are quite wide. Therefore, the relevant authorities should be given strengthened monitoring of both pests, especially in areas with high incursion rates.

The spread of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the islands of São Tomé and Príncipe

The mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is a vector species of the causal agents of Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika among other diseases pathogens. The species originated in Southeast Asia and has spread widely and rapidly in the last century. The species has been reported in localities from the Gulf of Guinea since the early 2000s, but systematic sampling has been scant. We sampled Ae. albopictus twice, in 2013 and 2023 across the altitudinal gradient in São Tomé and found that the species was present in all sampled years at altitudes up to 680 m. We also found some evidence of increases in proportional representation compared to Ae. aegypti over time. We report the presence of the species in Príncipe for the first time, suggesting that the range of Ae. albopictus is larger than previously thought. Finally, we use bioclimatic niche modeling to infer the potential range of Ae. albopictus and infer that the species has the potential to spread across a large portion of São Tomé and Príncipe. Our results suggest that Ae. albopictus has established itself as a resident species of the islands of the Gulf of Guinea and should be incorporated into the list of potential vectors that need to be surveyed and controlled.

Assessing success in attempts to eradicate an emerging invader plant: Tephrocactus articulatus (Pfeiff.) Backeb in arid areas of South Africa

Tephrocactus articulatus (Pfeiff.) Backeb (family: Cactaceae) is an emerging invader plant that is native to Argentina and was introduced as an ornamental plant in South Africa. The South African national regulations and legislation for controlling biological invasions dictate that emerging alien species must be eradicated. We evaluated the effectiveness of foliar spray in clearing the populations of T. articulatus, and determined the management challenges in 16 representative sites. We also applied bioclimatic models to forecast how T. articulatus invasion might respond to climate change. The exposure to climate change forecasts for T. articulatus was quantified using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (2014) two representative concentration pathways – RCP scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) for the 2061–2080 period. Overall, the foliar spray method significantly suppressed T. articulatus populations in all sites (i.e., 75–99%) except in four sites that did not display the population suppression threshold of X ≥ 75%. The clearing success (i.e., % of dead plants), was significantly and negatively correlated to the size of the site (ha) wherein the bigger sites had relatively low success. Climate suitability projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for T. articulatus produced excellent data fits (i.e., training AUC = 0.939 and test AUC = 0.914). Noteworthy, both future scenarios model projections have shown an expansion of suitable habitat for T. articulatus: 49.9% and 60.4% respectively, of the current estimated total spatial coverage of 219102 km2, and with possible expansion into neighbouring countries, Namibia and Botswana. The significant variation in the projections was contributed by precipitation in the wettest (47.5%) and warmest quarters (48.9%). Our results advance the importance of predictive models in planning optimisation in the management of emerging alien plant species in South Africa: if the ongoing eradication of T. articulatus in the core invasion areas fails, and climate change prevails, a switch from foliar spray to biological control method will be essential.

Multiproxy approach to reconstruct the climate and environment of a new late Middle Pleistocene vertebrate site in northwestern Italy

The Moleto site (Ottiglio, AL, Piemonte, Italy) was discovered in the 1990s in an abandoned quarry carved into a Burdigalian–Langhian carbonate succession called Pietra da Cantoni. Sediment collection in three closely spaced fissures provided a rich vertebrate association whose age can be constrained to the late Middle Pleistocene on the basis of the presence of the extinct water vole Arvicola mosbachensis and its enamel characteristics (SDQ values ranging from 100 to 130). The very similar faunal content, evidenced by the common presence of Arvicola mosbachensis and its similar SDQ values, is indicative of a coeval deposition of the fillings of the three fissures. The vertebrate assemblage is represented by 30 taxa, including amphibians, squamate reptiles, birds, and mammals. Interestingly, a diverse fish assemblage from the embedded sediments of the Miocene Pietra da Cantoni has been found in the fissure fillings. We present here a multi-method approach using the small vertebrate assemblages (rodents, insectivores, amphibians, and squamate reptiles) from Moleto to characterize the environment and climate of the site. In order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic conditions, we applied the Mutual Ecogeographic Range using UDA-ODA technique, the Bioclimatic Model, the Habitat Weightings, and the Quantified Ecology methods. The results revealed a landscape dominated by woodland habitats with presence of open humid meadows, under temperate and moist climatic conditions, although somewhat colder and drier than today. According to all evidence, the associations from Moleto would correspond to the interglacial MIS 7.

WBGT ANALYSIS OF THERMAL COMFORT OF THE AREA OF SEMBERIJA

<p>Thermal comfort of urban areas is a highly researched field of science, which is gaining more and more importance in the field of ecology. The research of the area from the aspect of the convenience of physical activities and outdoor life provides data that is also useful in the health sector. This research included the area of Semberija in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is characterized by unfavorable conditions during summer, due to high temperatures, swampy land and increased artificial presence of construction and industries.</p> <p>Not all areas have the same weather conditions, therefore other factors such as relief and presence of forests are important in the overall state of the area. Therefore, data from two meteorological stations, at a short distance from each other, but in a different natural and artificial environment, were analyzed. These are the station in the town of Bijeljina and the station within the Mine and Thermal Power Plant in Ugljevik.</p> <p>Within this research, the WBGT bioclimatic model was used, which is widely used in the world for the purposes of calculating the time that the human body can spend in direct sunlight during work or exercise, without rest. Given that the same time period is not covered, an average of 14 years (period 2005 – 2018) was analyzed for the area of Bijeljina, and an average of 8 years (period 2015 – 2022) for Ugljevik. The period from 2015 to 2018, which covers both locations, was also analyzed in order to make a comparison and notice the differences and determine the factors that affect the thermal comfort of the space.</p>

BIOCLIM Modeling for Predicting Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tree Tapiscia sinensis (Tapisciaceae) in China

Climate change jeopardizes species survival, particularly for endangered species. This risk extends to the endangered Chinese endemic tree Tapiscia sinensis. The factors underpinning T. sinensis’s habitat distribution are poorly understood, and its potential response to future climate scenarios remains unclear. With six shortlisted climate factors and 117 occurrence records, we modeled T. sinensis’s potential distribution across China using the BIOCLIM model. We applied principal component analysis to examine the primary climate factors restricting its geographical range. The findings indicate that T. sinensis’ range is principally located in China’s middle subtropical climatic zone at low–mid altitudes. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and precipitation. Temperature was the most critical factor limiting T. sinensis distribution, especially the effect of temperature seasonality and isothermality. The habitat suitability model generated by BIOCLIM under current climate conditions demonstrated strong concordance between the predicted suitable areas and the present actual distribution range. These results verify that the model can reliably identify habitats conducive to T. sinensis growth and survival. However, under a hypothetical future climate scenario of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations for 2100, the model indicates a precipitous reduction and fragmentation in the areas with excellent suitability conditions. This predicted decline highlights the considerable threats posed by climate change to the long-term survival of this endangered species in China. Our habitat modeling yields critical insights that inform the development of science-based strategies and best practices to improve conservation management plans for research, protection, nursery cultivation, and sustainable planting in China. Habitat suitability knowledge could aid introduction and cultivation efforts for T. sinensis globally in places with analogous climates.

Niche model based conservation and ecorestoration area prediction of threatened Prioria pinnata (Fabaceae) and conservation implication on IUCN status

Prioria pinnata (Roxb. ex DC.) Breteler, a threatened endemic canopy tree in the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot, which is threatened by habitat loss and low density. Bioclimatic modelling predicts 2999 km2 of potential habitat across nine ecoregions, but 2452 km2 is converted for agriculture, making it unsuitable for niche-specific species restoration. Combining Grinnellian and Eltonian niche factors enhances model accuracy and predictions using a modified Niche modelling coupled with community composition. The study adds more information to the IUCN Red List assessment, expanding the Extent of Occurrence and Area of Occupancy. The species' status has been upgraded from Endangered to Vulnerable due to recovery and increased awareness. A niche profile-based management plan and seedling reintroduction are recommended for this threatened endemic canopy tree.

Effects of changing climate extremes and vegetation phenology on wildlife associated with grasslands in the southwestern United States

Assessments of the potential responses of animal species to climate change often rely on correlations between long-term average temperature or precipitation and species’ occurrence or abundance. Such assessments do not account for the potential predictive capacity of either climate extremes and variability or the indirect effects of climate as mediated by plant phenology. By contrast, we projected responses of wildlife in desert grasslands of the southwestern United States to future climate means, extremes, and variability and changes in the timing and magnitude of primary productivity. We used historical climate data and remotely sensed phenology metrics to develop predictive models of climate-phenology relations and to project phenology given anticipated future climate. We used wildlife survey data to develop models of wildlife-climate and wildlife-phenology relations. Then, on the basis of the modeled relations between climate and phenology variables, and expectations of future climate change, we projected the occurrence or density of four species of management interest associated with these grasslands: Gambel’s Quail (Callipepla gambelii), Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamat), Gunnison’s prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni), and American pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our results illustrated that climate extremes and plant phenology may contribute more to projecting wildlife responses to climate change than climate means. Monthly climate extremes and phenology variables were influential predictors of population measures of all four species. For three species, models that included climate extremes as predictors outperformed models that did not include extremes. The most important predictors, and months in which the predictors were most relevant to wildlife occurrence or density, varied among species. Our results highlighted that spatial and temporal variability in climate, phenology, and population measures may limit the utility of climate averages-based bioclimatic niche models for informing wildlife management actions, and may suggest priorities for sustained data collection and continued analysis.

Topographic and climatic controls of peatland distribution on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) hosts a variety of mountain peatlands that are sensitive to the amplified warming in this region. However, we still lack a basic understanding of environmental and climatic factors controlling peatland distribution in the region. Here we use a bioclimatic envelope model (PeatStash) and environmental analysis that utilise three peatland datasets—(a) the well-studied Zoige peatland complex, (b) a literature-based dataset of TP peatlands sites, and (c) an existing global peatland map (PEATMAP)—to investigate major drivers of peatland distribution in the TP. The Zoige peatland complex is defined by gentle slopes (< 2°), mean annual temperature at 0–2 °C, and soil moisture index > 1.7, much narrower thresholds than those stemming from PEATMAP. Using these narrower thresholds to predict future changes, we found that the Zoige peatland complex will shrink greatly under full-range future warming scenarios (both SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). Modelling peatland distribution in the entire TP remains challenging because accurate environmental and climate data at high resolution and a reliable peatland distribution map are still lacking. Improved peatland mapping supported by ground-truthing is necessary to understand drivers of peatland distribution, assess carbon storage and other ecosystem services, and predict the TP’s peatlands fate under climate change.

Armillaria altimontana in North America: Biology and Ecology.

Armillaria altimontana is a fungus (Basidiomycota, Agaricomycetes, Agaricales, and Physalacriaceae) that is generally considered as a weak/opportunistic pathogen or saprophyte on many tree hosts. It widely occurs across the northwestern USA to southern British Columbia, Canada, but relatively little is known about its ecological role in the diverse forest ecosystems where it occurs. This review summarizes the biology and ecology of A. altimontana, including its identification, life cycle, distribution, host associations, and bioclimatic models under climate change.

The Endangered Sardinian Grass Snake: Distribution Update, Bioclimatic Niche Modelling, Dorsal Pattern Characterisation, and Literature Review.

The Sardinian grass snake, Natrix helvetica cetti, is an endangered endemic snake subspecies with a restricted and highly fragmented geographic distribution. Information on its ecology and detailed geographic distribution are scarce and may negatively impact on its conservation status. Therefore, a literature review on its taxonomy, morphology, ecology, and conservation is presented here. Moreover, field records from the authors, citizen science and the existing literature provide an updated geographic distribution highlighting its presence within 13 new and 7 historic 10 × 10 km cells. Bioclimatic niche modelling was then applied to explore patterns of habitat suitability and phenotypic variation within N. h. cetti. The geographic distribution of the species was found to be positively correlated with altitude and precipitation values, whereas temperature showed a negative correlation. Taken together, these outcomes may explain the snake's presence, particularly in eastern Sardinia. In addition, analysis of distribution overlap with the competing viperine snake (N. maura) and the urodeles as possible overlooked trophic resources (Speleomantes spp. and Euproctus platycephalus) showed overlaps of 66% and 79%, respectively. Finally, geographical or bioclimatic correlations did not explain phenotypic variation patterns observed in this highly polymorphic taxon. Perspectives on future research to investigate N. h. cetti's decline and support effective conservation measures are discussed.

Climate Affecting the Carbon, Phytomass and Litter Stocks in Forest Stans of the South of the European Russia

Modern global climate change manifests in an ever intensifying fashion, affecting anthropogenic and natural systems. Bioclimatic models predict significant shifts in biome boundaries, including a reduction in the forests’ proportion in the forest-steppe areas. This process can also affect carbon stocks. The aim of the work was to assess the impact of climate and its changes on the values and their changes of the phytomass’ carbon stocks of forest stands according to the data of repeated surveys of permanent sample plots. In the southern regions of the European Russia, 8 forests were selected and trial plots were set up. Repeated surveys were carried out on the test plots in 2010–2011, 2014–2015, 2019–2020. The carbon reserves of the living and the dead components of forest stands were calculated according to taxation characteristics. The litter carbon stocks were determined by the gravimetric method. The meteorological information analysis was carried out using data from the meteorological stations closest to the objects of study. Average annual temperature for 1991–2020 increased compared to 1961–1990. by 1.13°C, which is 2.5 times more than the global average. At the same time, annual precipitation decreased from 448.2 mm to 445.4 mm. The average value of the G.T. Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient for May-September during the 1961–1990 period was 0.85, and 0.79 during the 1991–2020 period. The stock of the phytomass carbon in the studied forest stands varied from 38.5 ± 7.4 t C ha–1 to 270.6 ± 52.8 t C ha–1. Repeated surveys revealed both increases and decreases in phytomass carbon stocks, which ranged from –23.8 to 31.9 t C ha–1 over a five-year interval. The phytomass carbon stocks and climatic characteristics analysis revealed a statistically significant correlation with the HTC for May-September. However, comparison of changes in phytomass with changes in the average annual temperature, annual precipitation and HTC for May-September did not reveal significant dependencies. The absence of significant correlations between changes in phytomass carbon and climatic parameters’ changes can be determined by the forest ecosystems’ stability, which ensures the preservation of their functions over several years intervals.

Modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on distribution of Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. species in deserts using LiDAR-data

Microclimate ecology is attracting renewed attention because of its fundamental importance in understanding how organisms respond to climate change. Many hot issues can be investigated in desert ecosystems, including the relationship between species distribution and environmental gradients (e.g., elevation, slope, topographic convergence index, and solar insolation). Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to understand these relationships. We used data acquired from the important desert plant Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. communities and desert topographic factors extracted from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data of one square kilometer in the inner Mongolia region of China to develop SDMs. We evaluated the performance of SDMs developed with a variety of both the parametric and nonparametric algorithms (Bioclimatic Modelling (BIOCLIM), Domain, Mahalanobi, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate these algorithms. The SDMs developed with RF showed the best performance based on the area under curve (0.7733). We also produced the Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. distribution maps with the best SDM and suitable habitat area of the Domain model. Based on the suitability map, we conclude that Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. is more suited to southern part with 0–20 degree slopes at an elevation of approximately 1010 m. This is the first attempt of modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on the desert species distribution on a small scale. The presented SDMs can have important applications for predicting species distribution and will be useful for preparing conservation and management strategies for desert ecosystems on a small scale.

31. Development and evaluation of a sow herd model coupled with a bioclimatic model of gestation rooms

31. Development and evaluation of a sow herd model coupled with a bioclimatic model of gestation rooms

Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models.

Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.

Geographic Distribution of the Genus Panstrongylus Berg, 1879 in the Neotropic with Emphasis on Trypanosoma cruzi Vectors.

Panstrongylus is a Neotropical taxa of 16 species, some more widespread than others, that act as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease (CD). This group is associated with mammalian reservoir niches. There are few studies of the biogeography and niche suitability of these triatomines. Using zoo-epidemiological occurrence databases, the distribution of Panstrongylus was determined based on bioclimatic modelling (DIVA GIS), parsimonious niche distribution (MAXENT), and parsimony analysis of endemic species (PAE). Through 517 records, a wide presence of P. geniculatus, P. rufotuberculatus, P. lignarius, and P. megistus was determined and recorded as frequent vectors of T. cruzi in rainforest habitats of 24-30 °C. These distributions were modeled with AUC >0.80 and <0.90, as well as with the seasonality of temperature, isothermality, and precipitation as relevant bioclimatic variables. Individual traces for each taxon in Panstrongylus-1036 records-showed widely dispersed lines for frequent vectors P. geniculatus, P. lignarius, P. rufotuberculatus, and P. megistus. Other occasional vectors showed more restricted dispersal, such as P. howardi, P. humeralis, P. lenti, P. lutzi, P. tupynambai, P. noireaiui, and P. chinai. Areas of defined environmental variation, geological change, and trans domain fluid fauna, such as the American Transition Zone and the Pacific Domain of Morrone, had the highest Panstrongylus diversity. Pan-biogeographic nodes appear to be areas of the greatest species diversity that act as corridors connecting biotopes and allowing fauna migration. Vicariance events in the geologic history of the continent need to be investigated. The geographical distribution of Panstrongylus overlapped with CD cases and Didelphis marsupialis/Dasypus novemcinctus presence, two important reservoirs in Central and South America. The information derived from the distribution of Panstrongylus provides knowledge for surveillance and vector control programs. It would increase information on the most and less relevant vector species of this zoonotic agent, for monitoring their population behavior.