INVASION POTENTIAL OF DAREVSKIA ARMENIACA (MEHELY, 1909) IN UKRAINE: ASSESSMENT BASED ON GIS MODELING

Abstract

The article is devoted to the actual problem of determining the invasive potential of the invader species, the Armenian rock lizard Darevskia armeniaca. A population of introduced parthenogenetic rock lizards Darevskia armeniaca has existed in the canyon of the Teteriv River (Zhytomyr region, Ukraine) for about 60 years. Their presence in the herpetofauna of Ukraine is the result of a scientific experiment aimed at studying the processes of acclimatization and the existence of a local population of clones in a limited area, the possibilities of hybridogenesis of parthenogenetic and bisexual species and other issues of population genetics.
 The invasive potential of rock lizards in this area was studied by the method of bioclimatic modeling of the ecological niche. The material was based on data from the Global Biodiversity Information System (GBIF.org (03 November 2021) GBIFOccurrenceDownload. To model the ecological niche, 19 bioclimatic variables, average monthly data on solar radiation intensity for the modern period (1970-2000), data on altitude from the WorldClim 2.1 database were used. Most of the significant parameters of the ecological niche for the introduced population are in the lower pessimum zone. The model built based on the entire collection of points of registration of the species shows that the territory where the species was introduced in Ukraine is one of the least suitable. Nevertheless, the population of introduced parthenogenetic rock lizards is now stable, thriving, numerous and slightly expanding its range by inhabiting new territories. Obviously, favorable conditions for the existence of D. armeniaca here are determined not by macroclimatic factors, but by microclimatic ones.
 The analysis of the model built on the basis of points of registration of the species in the introduced population shows that under existing climatic conditions, wide expansion of the species in this region of Ukraine is not possible, although a small expansion of its range is quite likely. There is also no reason to predict the transition of rock lizards to the number of invasive species.