Betula Pubescens Ehrh Research Articles

Dating of snow avalanches by means of wound‐induced vessel anomalies in sub‐arctic Betula pubescens

Dendrogeomorphic research has long relied on scarred trees to reconstruct the frequency of mass‐movement processes. Injuries have mostly been dated macroscopically by counting the tree rings formed after wounding. Tree‐ring anatomical anomalies induced by cambial injury, in contrast, have only recently been recognized as proxy records of past events. We investigated 12 sub‐arctic downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) trees scarred by snow avalanches in Norway and Iceland. Earlywood vessel lumina were measured for each tree in the xylem tissue bordering the scars. Seven successive rings were examined, namely two control rings laid down prior to wounding and five rings in the wound xylem. We provide evidence that snow‐avalanche‐induced wounding resulted in atypically narrow earlywood vessels over at least two years. Our data demonstrate that wound‐associated vessel anomalies represent tangible markers of mass‐movement processes, and as such make a viable tool for reconstructing past events. Similar dendrogeomorphic studies based on tree‐ring anatomy can be readily conducted with other mass‐movement processes, as well as with other broad‐leaved tree species. Ultimately, this new approach will foster increment coring over more invasive sampling techniques.

Evaluation of preservative distribution in thermally modified European aspen and birch boards using computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy

The aim of this experiment was to impregnate thermally modified wood using an easy and cost-effective method. Industrially processed thermally modified European aspen (Populus tremula L.) and birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) were collected and secondarily treated at the laboratory scale with the preservatives tung oil, pine tar and Elit Traskydd (Beckers) using a simple and effective method. Preservative uptake and distribution in sample boards were evaluated using computed tomography (CT) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques. Preservative uptake and treatability in terms of void volume filled were found the highest in Beckers and the lowest in tung oil-treated samples. Thermally modified samples had lower treatability than their counterpart control samples. More structural changes after thermal modification, especially in birch, significantly reduced the preservative uptake and distribution. The differences of preservatives uptake near the end grain were high and then decreased near the mid position of the samples length as compared with similar type of wood sample. Non-destructive evaluation by CT scanning provided a very useful method to locate the preservative gradients throughout the sample length. SEM analysis enabled the visualization of the preservative deposits in wood cells at the microstructural level.

Defining an adequate sample of earlywood vessels for retrospective injury detection in diffuse-porous species.

Vessels of broad-leaved trees have been analyzed to study how trees deal with various environmental factors. Cambial injury, in particular, has been reported to induce the formation of narrower conduits. Yet, little or no effort has been devoted to the elaboration of vessel sampling strategies for retrospective injury detection based on vessel lumen size reduction. To fill this methodological gap, four wounded individuals each of grey alder (Alnus incana (L.) Moench) and downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) were harvested in an avalanche path. Earlywood vessel lumina were measured and compared for each tree between the injury ring built during the growing season following wounding and the control ring laid down the previous year. Measurements were performed along a 10 mm wide radial strip, located directly next to the injury. Specifically, this study aimed at (i) investigating the intra-annual duration and local extension of vessel narrowing close to the wound margin and (ii) identifying an adequate sample of earlywood vessels (number and intra-ring location of cells) attesting to cambial injury. Based on the results of this study, we recommend analyzing at least 30 vessels in each ring. Within the 10 mm wide segment of the injury ring, wound-induced reduction in vessel lumen size did not fade with increasing radial and tangential distances, but we nevertheless advise favoring early earlywood vessels located closest to the injury. These findings, derived from two species widespread across subarctic, mountainous, and temperate regions, will assist retrospective injury detection in Alnus, Betula, and other diffuse-porous species as well as future related research on hydraulic implications after wounding.

The minimum temperature for budburst in Betula depends on the state of dormancy

Vegis has put forward the theory that the range of growth-promoting temperatures changes during the induction and the release of dormancy. We have tested the response of buds of Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth. on temperature during the induction and release of dormancy. Betula seedlings were exposed to dormancy-inducing high-temperature and short-day conditions and subsequently to dormancy-releasing chilling conditions in darkness. To monitor the dormancy status of the seedlings, subsets of them were transferred to five forcing temperatures and their budburst was observed. The results show that the expression of dormancy was temperature dependent, so that the minimum temperature for 100% budburst rose during the induction and dropped during the release of dormancy. These responses may explain previous contradictions between experimental and modelling studies, but that needs to be verified with more extensive experiments, some of which are identified in this study. The results provide further evidence for the concept of gradual change in bud dormancy. They also suggest that global change studies modelling budburst phenology should address the changing expression of bud dormancy.

Assessment of biomass functions for calculating bark proportions and ash contents of refined biomass fuels derived from major boreal tree species

Knowledge of the components of above-ground biomass of low-quality stems harvested to produce biofuel pellets is important, since bark has higher ash contents (a key quality parameter for the pellets) than wood. Therefore, single-tree biomass functions by Marklund (1988. Rep. 45. Department of Forest Survey, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umea, Sweden.) were evaluated using a sample population of 1612 Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce ( Pices abies (L.) Karst.), and birch ( Betula pendula Roth and Betula pubescens Ehrh.) trees and three methods to model bark proportions. Bark percentages calculated subtractively using functions for stem biomass over and under bark showed anomalous patterns, especially for pine and birch. However, additive use of biomass functions for bark biomass and stem biomass under bark resulted in similar patterns to bark percentages traditionally calculated from bark biomass and stem biomass over bark. Published ash contents of bark and stemwood indicate that pine, birch, and spruce stems with breast height (1.3 m) diameters of 4–40, 4–30, and >19 cm, respectively, have <0.7% ash contents (the current limit for the highest quality fuel pellets). However, if the highest recorded ash contents are used, only pine stems meet this criterion. Thus, material of different species and stem dimensions may need to be carefully mixed when whole-stem biomass is used as feedstock for pelletizing.

Shape stability of laminated veneer products – An experimental study of the influence on distortion of some material and process parameters

A shortcoming of the laminated bending process is that the products may become distorted after moulding and during use. In this study, we have examined the influence of different UF-adhesive systems, adhesive distribution, and veneer properties such as species, moisture content, and fibre orientation. Two different species were studied: beech (Fagus silvatica L.) and birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.). Distortion was determined directly after moulding and after storage in a changing relative humidity. The aim of the work was to study how the above-mentioned material and process parameters influence the distortion. The results show that the material and process parameters and the storage in a changing relative humidity had a clear impact on distortion. Fibre orientation, differences in moisture content between veneers, and the moisture gradient in the final product are identified in this study as being the most important parameters influencing the distortion and shape stability of laminated veneer products.

Impact and productivity of harvesting while retaining young understorey spruces in final cutting of downy birch (Betula pubescens)

Quite often Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) forms an understorey in birch dominated stands in Finland. Advantageous growth conditions for both storeys are present especially in downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) stands on drained fertile peatland. The most common way of regenerating mature Downy birch forest is clear cutting and replanting with Norway spruce, even if vital spruce seedlings or saplings was already growing under the birch. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of retaining young understorey spruces on the productivity of harvesting and on the quality of the remaining stands in downy birch dominated stands with modern cut-to-length (CTL) machinery. Retaining undergrowth spruces decreased productivity of cutting in managed stands (600 stems/ha) by 6–9 per cent and in unmanaged stands (1200 stems/ha) by 11–17 per cent compared with clear cutting, where the understorey is not considered. Compared with the case where no understorey was present, the decrease in productivity was 10–17 per cent and 21–30 per cent respectively. In forwarding, retaining the undergrowth decreased the productivity of loading phases by 7–14 per cent. Harvesting treatment where spruces were retained produced an adequate stand structure for the future growing stock. Using this method, 14–24 per cent of the original spruces were totally destroyed while 25–44 per cent of spruces were destroyed when they were not considered for harvesting. The spatial variation of the remaining spruces was much better in the treatment where spruces were retained. Our study results shows that in this kind of two storey birch–spruce forests, the harvesting treatment where spruces are retained while cutting is the most acceptable and profitable method. It allows for a vital spruce sapling to continue growing, and avoids regeneration and tending costs or other harmful effects of clear-cut areas such as the freezing of young spruce plants and an increase in the ground water table.

Some morphological and biochemical features of micropropagated plants of white birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) growing under ex vitro on artificial and natural substrates

Some morphological and biochemical features of micropropagated plants of white birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) growing under ex vitro on artificial and natural substrates

A first dendrogeomorphologic approach of snow avalanche magnitude–frequency in Northern Iceland

The paper examines the potential of dendrogeomorphic analyses to deliver a one-year resolution chronology of snow-avalanche winters in Northern Iceland, at the scale of a colluvial cone covered with European White Birch trees and shrubs (Betula pubescens Ehrh.). Reconstruction of the avalanche history is performed using tree-ring analyses. Determination of the most reliable growth disturbance (class 1 of growth eccentricity) and applying a tempering index value with threshold 10% of trees responding in the same year and at least two trees affected, avalanche-activity years are highlighted, resulting in 52 avalanche winters. Amongst those, 5 winters have activity index over 40%, indicating major years. Calculation of frequency of similar growth disturbances at each tree provides a return period ranging from 4.2 to 19years. Inferred spatial extent of snow-avalanche events induces flow-like snow avalanches with limited extent around the tree-less parts of the cone with a return period under 6years; the cone is totally covered and the distal tree-limit over-passed with a return period of 15–20years.

Gluability of thermally modified beech (Fagus silvatica L.) and birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) wood

One of the main disadvantages of wood is hygroscopicity resulting from its polar character. The sorption–desorption of water causes unwanted swelling and shrinkage in wood. Thermal modification substantially reduces this inconvenient feature. Unfortunately, the same chemical changes that reduce water sorption alter the polar character of the material and result in poorer wetting of thermally treated wood by waterborne adhesives. Gluability of thermally modified beech (Fagus silvatica L.) and birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) wood with two commercial amino resins, melamine–urea–formaldehyde (MUF) and melamine–formaldehyde (MF), and a two-component polyurethane (PUR) adhesive was investigated. Both wood species were modified according to two temperature regimes: 160°C and 190°C. Shear strengths of the joints were then determined according to EN 205:2003 standard. The results showed that thermally modified beech and birch wood can be effectively glued not only with commercially available PUR adhesives, but also with aqueous MF and MUF resins. The resultant shear strengths of the joints were limited by the strength of the thermally modified substrate.

Estimation of nutrient removals in stem-only and whole-tree harvesting of Scots pine, Norway spruce, and birch stands with generalized nutrient equations

Whole-tree harvesting (WTH), where logging residues are removed in addition to stems, is widely practised in Fennoscandian boreal forests. WTH increases the export of nutrients from forest ecosystems. The extent of nutrient removals may depend on tree species, harvesting method, and the intensity of harvesting. We developed generalized nutrient equations for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies Karsten), and birch (Betula pendula Roth and Betula pubescens Ehrh.) stands to be able to calculate the amounts of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and calcium in stems and above-ground biomass (stem and crown) as a function of stand volume. The equations were based on Fennoscandian literature data from 34 pine, 26 spruce, and 5 birch stands, and they explained, depending on the tree species and nutrient, 61–99% and 56–87% of the variation in the nutrient amounts of stems and above-ground biomass, respectively. The calculations based on the equations showed that nutrient removals caused by stem-only harvesting (SOH) and WTH per harvested stem m3 were smaller in pine than in spruce and birch stands. If the same volume of stem is harvested, nutrient removals are, in general, nearly equal at thinnings and final cuttings in SOH, but larger in thinnings than final cuttings in WTH. If the principal aim is to minimize the nutrient removals per harvested stem m3, the harvesting should be done at mature pine stands. The effect of biomass removal on overall site nutrient status depends on site-specific factors such as atmospheric deposition, weathering of minerals, and the size of the nutrient pools in the soil.

Interspecific Variation in Resistance of Asian, European, and North American Birches (Betulaspp.) to Bronze Birch Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

Bronze birch borer (Agrilus anxius Gory) is the key pest of birches (Betula spp.) in North America, several of which have been recommended for ornamental landscapes based on anecdotal reports of borer resistance that had not been confirmed experimentally. In a 20-yr common garden experiment initiated in 1979 in Ohio, North American birch species, including paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall), 'Whitespire' gray birch (Betula populifolia Marshall), and river birch (Betula nigra L.), were much more resistant to bronze birch borer than species indigenous to Europe and Asia, including European white birch (Betula pendula Roth), downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.), monarch birch (Betula maximowicziana Regel), and Szechuan white birch (Betula szechuanica Jansson). Within 8 yr of planting, every European white, downy, and Szechuan birch had been colonized and killed, although 100% of monarch birch had been colonized and 88% of these plants were killed after nine years. Conversely, 97% of river birch, 76% of paper birch, and 73% Whitespire gray birch were alive 20 yr after planting, and river birch showed no evidence of colonization. This pattern is consistent with biogeographic theory of plant defense: North American birch species that share a coevolutionary history with bronze birch borer were much more resistant than naïve hosts endemic to Europe and Asia, possibly by virtue of evolution of targeted defenses. This information suggests that if bronze birch borer were introduced to Europe or Asia, it could threaten its hosts there on a continental scale. This study also exposed limitations of anecdotal observation as evidence of host plant resistance.

Influence of climatic factors and reserve assimilates on the radial growth and carbon isotope composition in tree rings of deciduous and coniferous species

This paper analyzes variations in the isotope composition of growth rings in coniferous and deciduous species (Picea obovata L., Pinus sylvestris L., Populus tremula L., Betula pubescens Ehrh.) growing in the extremely continental climate of Central Siberia. The seasonal variation in carbon isotopes in tree rings is shown to differ significantly in different species (with significant synchrony in interannual variability. Species differences are found in the use of reserve assimilates in the formation of tree rings in the early growing season.

Contrasting climate- and land-use-driven tree encroachment patterns of subarctic tundra in northern Norway and the Kola PeninsulaThis article is a contribution to the series Tree recruitment, growth, and distribution at the circumpolar forest–tundra transition.

High-latitude regions are experiencing substantial climate change, and the forest–tundra transition is assumed to sensitively track these changes through advancing treeline and increased tundra encroachment. However, herbivores may influence these responses. The present study addresses, through analyses of age structures, growth characteristics, and climate correspondence, how mountain birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. ssp. czerepanovii (Orlova) Hämet-Ahti) treelines and sapling cohorts beyond the treeline have responded to the last decade’s warming in six North European subarctic areas with different climate and grazing characters. The results show different response patterns among areas representing advancing, stationary, and possibly retreating treelines. Recruitment was abundant over the last decades in all areas except one, with predominantly arctic conditions, where both tree and sapling cohorts were old. Areas with high annual precipitation show advancing birch populations characterized by young individuals and partly overlapping tree and sapling age distributions. Areas in reindeer herding districts show stationary or retreating birch populations characterized by nonoverlapping age distributions and low sapling survival. Recruitment patterns beyond the treeline generally corresponded with non-growing-season climate variables, mainly precipitation, indicating the importance of a protecting snow cover. The results highlight the important interplay between abiotic and biotic control over tundra encroachment and treeline dynamics and the importance of multisite studies when addressing responses to warming.

Browsing affects intra-ring carbon allocation in species with contrasting wood anatomy

Current knowledge on tree carbon (C) allocation to wood is particularly scarce in plants subjected to disturbance factors, such as browsing, which affects forest regeneration worldwide and has an impact on the C balance of trees. Furthermore, quantifying the degree to which tree rings are formed from freshly assimilated vs. stored carbohydrates is highly relevant for our understanding of tree C allocation. We used (13)C labelling to quantify seasonal allocation of stored C to wood formation in two species with contrasting wood anatomy: Betula pubescens Ehrh. (diffuse-porous) and Quercus petraea [Matt.] Liebl. (ring-porous). Clipping treatments (66% shoot removal, and unclipped) were applied to analyse the effect of browsing on C allocation into tree rings, plus the effects on tree growth, architecture, ring width and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs). The relative contribution of stored C to wood formation was greater in the ring-porous (55-70%) than in the diffuse-porous species (35-60%), although each species followed different seasonal trends. Clipping did not cause a significant depletion of C stores in either species. Nonetheless, a significant increase in the proportion of stored C allocated to earlywood growth was observed in clipped birches, and this could be explained through changes in tree architecture after clipping. The size of C pools across tree species seems to be important in determining the variability of seasonal C allocation patterns to wood and their sensibility to disturbances such as browsing. Our results indicate that the observed changes in C allocation to earlywood in birch were not related to variations in the amount or concentration of NSC stores, but to changes in the seasonal availability of recently assimilated C caused by modifications in tree architecture after browsing.

Logs and stumps in clearcuts support similar saproxylic beetle diversity: implications for bioenergy harvest

Stumps from clear cuts are increasingly used for bioenergy. Extracting this wood will reduce the habitat available for saproxylic (wood-living) organisms. As little is known about the species assemblages that will be affected, we investigated the diversity of saproxylic beetles in stumps on clear-felled sites and as a reference, we compared it with the diversity in downed logs. Stumps and logs of aspen (Populus tremula L.), birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. verrucosa Ehrh.[syn. B. pendula Roth]), spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were examined in clear cuts of two different ages: one summer old and 4–5 years old. The beetles were sampled by sieving bark (0.25 m) peeled from the wood. The samples were taken in pairs of one log and one stump situated close together and of the same tree species, age since death and diameter. In total 3348 saproxylic beetles belonging to 124 species were found in 176 samples. The stumps had a similar number of species to the logs both as measured per sample and as an accumulated number. Exceptions were 4–5 years old wood of birch and pine where the number was significantly higher in the stumps. The number of red-listed species was also similar between stumps and logs. Species composition was more different between the stumps and logs of conifers than of deciduous trees. We conclude that clear-felled stumps have a diverse saproxylic insect fauna. This has to be taken into account if large scale extraction of logging stumps is implemented.2

Saw log recovery and stem quality of birch from thinnings in southern Finland

The objective of this study was to examine the timber quality of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) and European white birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) trees in the first and second thinnings in southern parts of Finland, from the viewpoint of sawing of small-diameter, short logs, in particular. The average stem volume of birch was 0.140 m in the first thinning stands and 0.206 m in the second thinning stands. In planted stands, the trees were larger in the first thinnings but slightly smaller in the second thinnings, compared with naturally regenerated pure birch stands or mixed stands of Norway spruce and birch species. Almost 60% of the harvested and 35% of the remaining stems that could provide saw logs were graded as pulpwood for timber quality due to the occurrence of stem defects. The most common stem defects were multiple crooks and middle crooks. Only minor between-stratum differences were detected in the numbers of defects. Depending on the bucking option, the total percentage of saw and plywood logs from the total birch recovery in the thinning of the sample stands varied between 11.7 and 18.2. The recovery of saw logs was clearly higher in the second thinnings, 12–19%, than in the first thinnings, 8–14%. Of the stand types, saw log recovery was the highest in planted birch stands, 12–19%, but lower in naturally regenerated pure birch stands and mixed stands of Norway spruce and birch. The highest share of saw logs was in the second thinning of planted stands, 17–25%. This study shows that the harvesting recoveries of end-use based timber assortments can be estimated in different kinds of thinning birch stands. Based on tree and log dimensions and stem squality, silver birch firstly from plantations and secondly from mixed stands should be the most interesting source of raw material for the saw milling, furniture and interior product sectors.33

Soil characteristics under selected broadleaved tree species in East Norway

Comprehensive analyses of soil properties of sites of native Scandinavian broadleaved tree species were performed in 36 habitats in East Norway. The material consisted of stands of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.), white birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.), black alder (Alnus glutinosa Gaertn.), speckled alder (Alnus incana Moench.), European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea [Matt.] Liebl.). The main objective was to describe the vertical characteristics and variations in some selected soil variables of the soil profiles. Particular soil horizons of 15 Brunisolic soils, 11 Regosolic soils, 6 Gleysolic and 4 Podzolic were sampled and analyzed for soil texture, bulk density, specific density, porosity, oxidizable carbon, total nitrogen content, pH in water, exchangeable acidity, exchangeable cations and anions (Mg, Ca, Mn, Al, S, Fe, B, P and K), cation exchange capacity and base saturation. No regular patterns were found in selected soil properties when tested between various soil units in silver birch stands. Furthermore, silver birch stands were found on sites, which topsoil (i) significantly differed in their cation exchange capacities, (ii) did not differ significantly in their pH values, and (iii) mostly differed in their clay contents and (iv) mostly did not differ in BS. Differences among the Humic Regosols, Luvic Gleysols, Sombric Brunisols, Eutric Brunisols and Humo-Ferric Podzols for silver birch stands in their topmost horizons of humified organic matter intimately mixed with the mineral fraction horizons and differences among particular soil horizons for the main soil properties under all the selected broadleaved tree species stands are discussed.  

Early reduction of Otiorhynchus spp. larval root herbivory on Betula pubescens by beneficial soil fungi

We present novel findings highlighting the early effects of inoculation of downy birch ( Betula pubescens Ehrh.) seedlings with factorial combinations of beneficial soil fungi, namely, ectomycorrhizal and insect pathogenic fungi, on Otiorhynchus spp. larval root herbivory under Icelandic field conditions. Birch seedlings were pre-treated with (1) a mixture of four ectomycorrhizal fungal species: Paxillus involutus (Batsch: Fr.) Fr., Telephora terrestris Ehrh.: Fr., Phialophora finlandia Wang & Wilcox. and Hebeloma sp., (2) the insect pathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae (Metschnikoff) Sorokin or (3) a combined inoculum that included the four ectomycorrhizal fungal species and M. anisopliae. Non-inoculated seedlings served as untreated controls. Inoculated and control seedlings were transplanted into soils at three different sites representing eroded land, birch woodland and heathland. Assessment following the first growing season indicated that the effects on Otiorhynchus spp. larval root herbivory and seedling productivity of pre-inoculation with the ectomycorrhizal fungal species mixture and the insect pathogenic fungus, M. anisopliae, were highly dependent on site and treatment. Inoculation with ectomycorrhizal fungi and M. anisopliae significantly reduced root herbivory in both the birch woodland and, in particular, the eroded land sites. In the heathland site, no or even negative effects on root herbivory were observed. However, potential synergistic effects of combined inoculation with both ectomycorrhizal fungi and M. anisopliae were not identified under these experimental conditions. Accumulated seedling mortality ascribed to root herbivory after three growing seasons showed a significant site dependent response, but no significant treatment effect was detected. The effects of ectomycorrhizal and insect pathogenic fungi on root herbivory are discussed and we conclude that significant, although mostly unidentified, interactions between the inoculated fungi and the naturally occurring soil microorganisms may explain these findings. Such interactions require further detailed investigation in order to develop an efficient strategy for soil inoculation with beneficial fungi.

Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud‐burst and spring frost risk in north‐west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate

AbstractThe timing of spring bud‐burst and leaf development in temperate, boreal and Arctic trees and shrubs fluctuates from year to year, depending on meteorological conditions. Over several generations, the sensitivity of bud‐burst to meteorological conditions is subject to selection pressure. The timing of spring bud‐burst is considered to be under opposing evolutionary pressures; earlier bud‐burst increases the available growing season (capacity adaptation) but later bud‐burst decreases the risk of frost damage to actively growing parts (survival adaptation). The optimum trade‐off between these two forms of adaptation may be considered an evolutionarily stable strategy that maximizes the long‐term ecological fitness of a phenotype under a given climate. Rapid changes in climate, as predicted for this century, are likely to exceed the rate at which trees and shrubs can adapt through evolution or migration. Therefore the response of spring phenology will depend not only on future climatic conditions but also on the limits imposed by adaptation to current and historical climate. Using a dataset of bud‐burst dates from twenty‐nine sites in Finland for downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.), we parameterize a simple thermal time bud‐burst model in which the critical temperature threshold for bud‐burst is a function of recent historical climatic conditions and reflects a trade‐off between capacity and survival adaptation. We validate this approach with independent data from eight independent sites outside Finland, and use the parameterized model to predict the response of bud‐burst to future climate scenarios in north‐west Europe. Current strategies for budburst are predicted to be suboptimal for future climates, with bud‐burst generally occurring earlier than the optimal strategy. Nevertheless, exposure to frost risk is predicted to decrease slightly and the growing season is predicted to increase considerably across most of the region. However, in high‐altitude maritime regions exposure to frost risk following bud‐burst is predicted to increase.