The health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident continue to attractthe attention of experts, decision-makers and the general public, and now theseconsequences have been given added relevance by the similar accident in 2011 at theFukushima-1 nuclear power plant (NPP) in Japan. Expert analysis of radiation levels andeffects has been conducted by international bodies—UNSCEAR in 2008 and the ChernobylForum during 2003–5. At the same time, three Russian and Belarusian scientists, Yablokov,Nesterenko and Nesterenko (2009 Chernobyl. Consequences of the Catastrophe forPeople and the Environment (New York: Annals of the New York Academy ofSciences)) published both in Russian and English a substantial review of theconsequences of Chernobyl based mostly on Russian-language papers. In this book,they suggested a departure from analytical epidemiological studies in favour ofecological ones. This erroneous approach resulted in the overestimation of the numberof accident victims by more than 800 000 deaths during 1987–2004. This paperinvestigates the mistakes in methodology made by Yablokov et al and concludesthat these errors led to a clear exaggeration of radiation-induced health effects.Should similar mistakes be made following the 2011 accident at Fukushima-1NPP this could lead quite unnecessarily to a panic reaction by the public aboutpossible health effects and to erroneous decisions by the authorities in Japan.
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