Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction Research Articles

An Adaptive Modeling Method for the Prognostics of Lithium-Ion Batteries on Capacity Degradation and Regeneration

Accurate prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial to the safety and reliability of the lithium-ion battery management system (BMS). However, the performance of a lithium-ion battery deteriorates nonlinearly and is heavily affected by capacity-regeneration phenomena during practical usage, which makes battery RUL prediction challenging. In this paper, a rest-time-based regeneration-phenomena-detection module is proposed and incorporated into the Coulombic efficiency-based degradation model. The model is estimated with the particle filter method to deal with the nonlinear uncertainty during the degradation and regeneration process. The discrete regeneration-detection results should be reflected by the model state instead of the model parameters during the particle filter-estimation process. To decouple the model state and model parameters during the estimation process, a dual-particle filtering estimation framework is proposed to update the model parameters and model state, respectively. A kernel smoothing method is adopted to further smooth the evolution of the model parameters, and the regeneration effects are imposed on the model states during the updating. Our proposed model and the dual-estimation framework were verified with the NASA battery datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method is capable of modeling capacity-regeneration phenomena and provides a good RUL-prediction performance for lithium-ion batteries.

A sequence to sequence prediction model for remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries with Bayesian optimisation process visualization

Accurate battery remaining useful life (RUL) prediction plays an important role in ensuring reliable operation of electric vehicles. In this paper, a hybrid model based on Bayesian optimization of deep convolutional neural network and long short-term memory neural network (BO-DCNN-LSTM) is proposed for battery RUL prediction. Feature extraction of raw charging characteristic curves is performed by the multilayer CNN and preliminary capacity prediction is performed by the multilayer LSTM. The model performance is explored with different training, validation and testing strategies and different prediction starting points. Validation using NASA battery aging data shows that the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the RUL prediction are 0.0139 Ah and 0.0195 Ah, respectively, when the prediction starting point is the 50th cycle. In addition, this paper visualizes the process of how the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm searches for the global optimal combinations in the high-dimensional hyperparameter space and discusses the impact of these hyperparameters on the prediction, filling the gap in this part of the research.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Transfer Learning and DAE-LSTM

Predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is one of the core tasks in battery health management. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of RUL prediction by proposing a battery RUL prediction method that integrates source domain battery iteration transfer with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. Firstly, multiple batteries with known degradation trends are utilized as source domain batteries, and combined with full-lifetime capacity degradation data to construct the Source Domain Battery Iterations Module (SIM) to obtain the optimal LSTM pre-training model. Secondly, the pre-trained model is transferred to the target domain and fine-tuned using the target domain training set. Finally, the fine-tuned LSTM pre-training model is applied to the task of predicting the capacity of target domain batteries, thereby completing the RUL prediction. The effectiveness of the algorithm is validated on three open-source datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that in scenarios where the source domain and target domain battery types are the same, the absolute error of RUL prediction is less than 2 cycles. Moreover, in cases where the battery types differ, except for the 20% prediction starting point, the RUL prediction error is less than 10 cycles, indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium‐Ion Batteries Based on a Combination of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Deep Belief Network–Long Short‐Term Memory

The prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for lithium‐ion batteries is a critical component of electric vehicle battery management systems. However, during the aging process, batteries exhibit an overall declining trend in capacity curves, coupled with capacity regeneration and localized fluctuations. Directly modeling this degradation trend based on the original capacity curve proves challenging, leading to reduced accuracy in RUL prediction. This article introduces a hybrid method to enhance the precision of battery RUL prediction. Utilizing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique, the battery's capacity degradation sequence is decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with varying degrees of fluctuations, along with a residue that characterizes the battery's overall declining trend. Subsequently, deep belief networks and long short‐term memory networks are established to predict the residue and IMFs separately. The combined results from these models yield the final battery RUL prediction. Finally, the effectiveness of this approach is validated on the NASA battery dataset, with diverse training periods and prediction time steps. Experimental results demonstrate that the root mean square error of predictions for all four batteries remains below 2%.

Transfer Learning-Based Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Lithium-Ion Batteries Considering Individual Differences

With the wide utilization of lithium-ion batteries in the fields of electronic devices, electric vehicles, aviation, and aerospace, the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for lithium batteries is important. Considering the influence of the environment and manufacturing process, the degradation features differ between the historical batteries and the target ones, and such differences are called individual differences. Currently, lithium battery RUL prediction methods generally use the characteristics of a large group of historical samples to represent the target battery. However, these methods may be vulnerable to individual differences between historical batteries and target ones, which leads to poor accuracy. In order to solve the issue, this paper proposes a prediction method based on transfer learning that fully takes individual differences into consideration. It utilizes an extreme learning machine (ELM) twice. In the first stage, the relationship between the capacity degradation rate and the remaining capacity is constructed by an ELM to obtain the adjusting factor. Then, an ELM-based transfer learning method is used to establish the connection between the remaining capacity and the RUL. Finally, the prediction result is adjusted by the adjusting factor obtained in the first stage. Compared with existing typical data-driven models, the proposed method has better accuracy and efficiency.

Remaining useful life prediction for lithium-ion batteries based on sliding window technique and Box-Cox transformation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction technique matters in lithium-ion battery use, optimization, and replacement. This article presents an RUL prediction method combining the sliding window (SW) technique and Box-Cox transformation (BCT). This method achieves online RUL prediction with acceptable accuracy, is independent of offline training data, and only brings a low computational burden. The SW technique is employed for gathering a certain amount of capacity data, which is subsequently transformed using BCT-related techniques to construct a capacity degradation model. The identified model is then extrapolated to predict battery RUL, and the prediction uncertainties are calculated through Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. A simple implementation shows that this hybrid method outperforms the history-based polynomial and BCT methods in battery RUL prediction. Given the segmented capacity degradation trend, a constraint can be imposed on the model parameter for optimization purposes. Experimental results demonstrate that the optimized method obtains lower root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of RUL predictions during the last 20 % of the battery lifetime than the original one, and the precise RULs are predicted with standard deviations mainly within [1, 10] cycles.

A CNN-GRU Approach to the Accurate Prediction of Batteries’ Remaining Useful Life from Charging Profiles

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) is a pivotal step in ensuring the reliability of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). In order to enhance the precision and stability of battery RUL prediction, this study introduces an innovative hybrid deep learning model that seamlessly integrates convolutional neural network (CNN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) architectures. Our primary goal is to significantly improve the accuracy of RUL predictions for LIBs. Our model excels in its predictive capabilities by skillfully extracting intricate features from a diverse array of data sources, including voltage (V), current (I), temperature (T), and capacity. Within this novel architectural design, parallel CNN layers are meticulously crafted to process each input feature individually. This approach enables the extraction of highly pertinent information from multi-channel charging profiles. We subjected our model to rigorous evaluations across three distinct scenarios to validate its effectiveness. When compared to LSTM, GRU, and CNN-LSTM models, our CNN-GRU model showcases a remarkable reduction in root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. These results affirm the superior predictive capabilities of our CNN-GRU model, which effectively harnesses the strengths of both CNNs and GRU networks to achieve superior prediction accuracy. This study draws upon NASA data to underscore the outstanding predictive performance of the CNN-GRU model in estimating the RUL of LIBs.

A data-driven prediction model for the remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries

Accurate prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) can ensure the safety and reliability of power batteries during operation, reduce the failure rate and operating costs, and enhance user experience. However, battery degradation is a complex, nonlinear dynamic process that is difficult to fully comprehend and predicting RUL remains a significant challenge. To address this issue, the hybrid data-driven prediction model PCA-CNN-BiLSTM was proposed in this paper, which combines principal component analysis (PCA), convolutional neural network (CNN), and bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network. PCA was applied to downscale and whiten the health factor (HF) to maximize the extraction of important features of lifespan decay, while reducing the correlation between features. The convolution kernel of the CNN was used to explore the local region feature information of the input information and search for the common patterns among the neighboring data. Additionally, the model parameters and computational efforts were reduced through pooling. Finally, battery RUL prediction was achieved using Bi-LSTM, which has the advantages of effectively enhancing model accuracy and reducing the risk of over-fitting by taking into account both past and future data. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated utilizing NASA and CALCE's battery datasets, and the results suggest that it exhibits a high level of accuracy across various datasets. Compared to other methods, the PCA-CNN-BiLSTM method has the best performance indicators for predicting battery RUL, including RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RULe and DOL. This indicates that the proposed model has better fitting performance, accuracy, robustness, and generalization ability.

Remaining useful life prediction of lithium battery based on ACNN-Mogrifier LSTM-MMD

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium batteries is crucial for predicting battery failure and health management. Accurately estimating the RUL allows for timely maintenance and replacement of batteries that pose safety risks. To enhance the safety and reliability of lithium battery operations, this paper proposes a lithium battery life prediction model, attention mechanism-convolutional neural network (ACNN)-Mogrifier long and short-term memory network (LSTM)-maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), based on ACNN, Mogrifier LSTM, and MMD Feature Transfer Learning. Firstly, the capacity degradation data from historical life experiments of lithium batteries in both source and target domains are extracted. The whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is employed to optimize the parameters of variational modal decomposition, enabling the decomposition of the historical capacity degradation data into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) components. Secondly, highly correlated IMF components are identified using the Pearson correlation coefficient (Pearson) to reconstruct the capacity sequence, which characterizes the capacity degradation information of the lithium batteries. These reconstructed sequences are inputs to the ACNN model to extract features from the capacity degradation data. The extracted features are then utilized to compute MMD values, quantifying the distribution differences between the two domains. The Mogrifier LSTM neural network estimates the capacity values of the source and target domains and calculates the loss functions by comparing them to the actual capacity values. These loss functions, along with the computed MMD values, are combined to obtain the combined loss function of the model. Finally, the ACNN-Mogrifier LSTM-MMD is applied to the target domain data to formulate the lithium battery RUL prediction model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using CACLE and NASA lithium battery datasets, The experimental results demonstrate that the predicted error of the RUL for the B5 battery is less than 6% for mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and less than 1 for . Similarly, the RUL prediction error for the B6 battery is below 10% for MAPE and less than 1 for . This indicates higher accuracy compared to other prediction methods, along with improved robustness and practicality.

Remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries using EM-PF-SSA-SVR with gamma stochastic process

Due to the complex changes in physicochemical properties of lithium-ion batteries during the process from degradation to failure, it is difficult for methods based on physical or data-driven models to fully characterize this nonlinear process, and existing methods that hybridize physical and data-driven models suffer from ambiguous hybridization, which results in the vast majority of existing methods for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries suffering from a lack of accuracy and robustness. In this study, a novel hybrid approach based on empirical modeling and data-driven techniques is proposed for predicting the RUL of lithium-ion batteries. To better capture its complexity, stochasticity, and state transition, and improve the modeling accuracy and RUL prediction precision, Gamma stochasticity and state-space modeling are used to empirically model the complex Li-ion battery degradation process. Moreover, the expectation maximization (EM) method of particle filtering (PF) was used to estimate the hidden parameters of the empirical model, and the estimated parameters were corrected using an optimized support vector regression (SVR) method to enhance the generalization performance and robustness of the data-driven model. The results show that the gamma state-space model is effective in capturing the inherent stochastic properties of the battery degradation and the proposed hybrid method outperforms the existing prediction methods in RUL prediction. The experiments show that the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimized SVR is considered to be the most effective correction method for the estimated parameters, while the new EM-PF-SSA-SVR hybrid method provides better performance for state assessment and RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries. It is indicated that the proposed EM-PF-SSA-SVR method with Gamma stochastic process has hybrid validity and superior performance with equal performance and less parameter computation relative to the existing state-of-the-art deep learning RUL prediction methods.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Iterative Transfer Learning and Mogrifier LSTM

Lithium-ion battery health and remaining useful life (RUL) are essential indicators for reliable operation. Currently, most of the RUL prediction methods proposed for lithium-ion batteries use data-driven methods, but the length of training data limits data-driven strategies. To solve this problem and improve the safety and reliability of lithium-ion batteries, a Li-ion battery RUL prediction method based on iterative transfer learning (ITL) and Mogrifier long and short-term memory network (Mogrifier LSTM) is proposed. Firstly, the capacity degradation data in the source and target domain lithium battery historical lifetime experimental data are extracted, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimizes the variational modal decomposition (VMD) parameters, and several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components are obtained by decomposing the historical capacity degradation data using the optimization-seeking parameters. The highly correlated IMF components are selected using the maximum information factor. Capacity sequence reconstruction is performed as the capacity degradation information of the characterized lithium battery, and the reconstructed capacity degradation information of the source domain battery is iteratively input into the Mogrifier LSTM to obtain the pre-training model; finally, the pre-training model is transferred to the target domain to construct the lithium battery RUL prediction model. The method’s effectiveness is verified using CALCE and NASA Li-ion battery datasets, and the results show that the ITL-Mogrifier LSTM model has higher accuracy and better robustness and stability than other prediction methods.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model

Lithium-ion batteries are widely utilized in various fields, including aerospace, new energy vehicles, energy storage systems, medical equipment, and security equipment, due to their high energy density, extended lifespan, and lightweight design. Precisely predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium batteries is crucial for ensuring the safe use of a device. In order to solve the problems of unstable prediction accuracy and difficultly modeling lithium-ion battery RUL with previous methods, this paper combines a channel attention (CA) mechanism and long short-term memory networks (LSTM) to propose a new hybrid CA-LSTM lithium-ion battery RUL prediction model. By incorporating a CA mechanism, the utilization of local features in situations where data are limited can be improved. Additionally, the CA mechanism can effectively mitigate the impact of battery capacity rebound on the model during lithium-ion battery charging and discharging cycles. In order to ensure the full validity of the experiments, this paper utilized the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the University of Maryland Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE) lithium-ion battery datasets and different prediction starting points for model validation. The experimental results demonstrated that the hybrid CA-LSTM lithium-ion battery RUL prediction model proposed in this paper exhibited a strong predictive performance and was minimally influenced by the prediction starting point.

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Life: An XDFM-Driven Approach with Explainable AI

The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of Li-ion batteries holds significant importance in the field of predictive maintenance, as it ensures the reliability and long-term viability of these batteries. In this study, we undertake a comprehensive analysis and comparison of three distinct machine learning models—XDFM, A-LSTM, and GBM—with the objective of assessing their predictive capabilities for RUL estimation. The performance evaluation of these models involves the utilization of root-mean-square error and mean absolute error metrics, which are derived after the training and testing stages of the models. Additionally, we employ the Shapley-based Explainable AI technique to identify and select the most relevant features for the prediction task. Among the evaluated models, XDFM consistently demonstrates superior performance, consistently achieving the lowest RMSE and MAE values across different operational cycles and feature selections. However, it is worth noting that both the A-LSTM and GBM models exhibit competitive results, showcasing their potential for accurate RUL prediction of Li-ion batteries. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the efficacy of these machine learning models, highlighting their capacity to make precise RUL predictions across diverse operational cycles for batteries.

Residual life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on data preprocessing and a priori knowledge-assisted CNN-LSTM

Lithium-ion batteries have become widely used in many industries due to their outstanding performance, making it vital to accurately predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of these batteries. This will aid in developing energy allocation strategies and ensure the safe use of lithium batteries. To overcome the issue of inaccurate RUL prediction, a new method is proposed that leverages data preprocessing and a prior knowledge-assisted convolutional neural network-long short-term memory neural network (CNN-LSTM). This method utilizes capacity as the health factor and employs complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to decompose the capacity sequence, eliminating noise components through data reconstruction. The reconstructed capacity sequence data are then used to pretrain the CNN-LSTM neural network, forming a priori knowledge. Finally, real-time battery capacity data are used to train the prior knowledge-aided CNN-LSTM neural network for real-time RUL prediction of Lithium-ion batteries. The results show that this method significantly improves the RUL prediction accuracy and reduces the prediction error while being more robust than existing methods.

A Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity and RUL Prediction Fusion Method Based on Decomposition Strategy and GRU

To safeguard the security and dependability of battery management systems (BMS), it is essential to provide reliable forecasts of battery capacity and remaining useful life (RUL). However, most of the current prediction methods use the measurement data directly to carry out prediction work, which ignores the objective measurement noise and capacity increase during the aging process of batteries. In this study, an integrated prediction method is introduced to highlight the prediction of lithium-ion battery capacity and RUL. This approach incorporates several techniques, including variational modal decomposition (VMD) with entropy detection, a double Gaussian model, and a gated recurrent unit neural network (GRU NN). Specifically, the PE−VMD algorithm is first utilized to perform a noise reduction process on the capacity data obtained from the measurements, and this results in a global degradation trend sequence and local fluctuation sequences. Afterward, the global degradation prediction model is established by employing the double Gaussian aging model proposed in this paper, and the local prediction models are built for each local fluctuation sequence by GRU NN. Lastly, the proposed hybrid prediction methodology is validated through battery capacity and RUL prediction studies on experimental data from three sources, and its accuracy is also compared with prediction algorithms from the recent related literature. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid prediction method exhibits high precision in the predicting future capacity and RUL of lithium-ion batteries, along with strong robustness and predictive stability.

A Physics-Constrained Bayesian neural network for battery remaining useful life prediction

In order to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries, a capacity degradation model may be developed using either simplified physical laws or machine learning-based methods. It is observed that even though degradation models based on simplified physical laws are easy to implement, they may result in large error in the application of failure prognostics. While data-driven prognostics models can provide more accurate degradation forecasting, they may require a large volume of training data and may invoke predictions inconsistent with physical laws. It is also very challenging for existing methods to predict the RUL at the early stages of battery life. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian physics-constrained neural network for battery RUL prediction by overcoming limitations of the current methods. In the proposed method, a neural differential operator is learned from the first 100 cycles of data. The neural differential operator is modeled with a Bayesian neural network architecture that separates the fixed history dependence from the time dependence to isolate epistemic uncertainty quantification. Using the battery dataset presented in the paper by Severson et al. as an example, we compare our proposed method with a simplified physics-based degradation forecasting model and two data-driven prognostics models. The results show that the proposed physics-constrained neural network can provide more accurate RUL estimation than the other methods with the same group of training data. Most importantly, the proposed method allows for RUL prediction at earlier stages of the battery life cycle.

Battery SOH estimation and RUL prediction framework based on variable forgetting factor online sequential extreme learning machine and particle filter

Battery life prediction is of great practical significance to ensure the safety and reliability of equipment. This paper proposes a new framework to realize battery state of health (SOH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. The variable forgetting factor online sequential extreme learning machine (VFOS-ELM) is used to estimate battery SOH, and particle filter (PF) algorithm used to predict battery RUL. To improve the estimation accuracy, a new nonlinear decline method, adaptive weight and Gaussian variation are used to improve the standard whale optimization algorithm (WOA) algorithm. And the improved IWOA algorithm is used for parameter optimization of the VFOS-ELM and PF algorithm. The extremely randomized trees (ERT) algorithm is used to obtain the features with high correlation with the available capacity to reduce the complexity of the model and improve the estimation accuracy. Compared with other methods, the proposed IWOA-VFOS-ELM algorithm has higher estimation performance and noise anti-interference ability. The MAE of APR-3 and APR-4 for SOH estimation are both within 0.12 %, RMSE are within 0.15 %, and IA are both higher than 99.9 %. Compared with PF algorithm, the RUL prediction accuracy obtained by IWOA-PF algorithm is improved by 7.143 %, 6.445 % and 15.094, respectively. In summary, the IWOA-PF algorithm proposed in this paper can be used to predict the battery RUL, and the prediction performance is better than the PF algorithm.

Novel Image-Based Rapid RUL Prediction for Li-Ion Batteries Using a Capsule Network and Transfer Learning

The recent popularity boost in electric vehicles created a large demand for lithium-ion batteries, but current recycling methods are not ready to carry the weight of the years to come. Because of this, the main goal of this study is to optimize the speed and accuracy of lithium-ion batteries’ remaining useful life (RUL) prediction methods to make them a viable option for second-life classification applications. This article develops a capsule network architecture for rapid battery RUL prediction using transfer learning techniques. The proposed method can accurately predict the RUL of a cell using a single charging and discharging cycle, making it one of the fastest methods available to date. This novel image-based health prognostic estimation method reduces the preprocessing labor and, consequently, the amount of human-induced bias in the dataset. Not only are complete charging and discharging cycles shown in a single image, but also even numerical data are added and taught to be recognized by the network. This rapid prediction model will have uses in the fast characterization of battery cells for second-life classification purposes, for researchers developing health-conscious charging protocols, and even for battery management system implementations.

A Review of Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Energy Storage Components Based on Stochastic Filtering Methods

Lithium-ion batteries are a green and environmental energy storage component, which have become the first choice for energy storage due to their high energy density and good cycling performance. Lithium-ion batteries will experience an irreversible process during the charge and discharge cycles, which can cause continuous decay of battery capacity and eventually lead to battery failure. Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction technology is important for the safe use and maintenance of energy storage components. This paper reviews the progress of domestic and international research on RUL prediction methods for energy storage components. Firstly, the failure mechanism of energy storage components is clarified, and then, RUL prediction method of the energy storage components represented by lithium-ion batteries are summarized. Next, the application of the data–model fusion-based method based on kalman filter and particle filter to RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries are analyzed. The problems faced by RUL prediction of the energy storage components and the future research outlook are discussed.

Adaptive self-attention LSTM for RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries

To achieve an accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), this study proposes an adaptive self-attention long short-term memory (SA-LSTM) prediction model. The innovations of the designed prediction model include the following. (1) It features an optimized local tangent space alignment algorithm, which allows the extraction of an indirect health indicator (HI) that can precisely describe battery degeneration from charge data. The extracted HI exhibits a high correlation with the standard capacity, thus facilitating RUL estimation. (2) By introducing a masked multi-head self-attention module into the time-series prediction model based on LSTM, critical information in the sequences is captured and the prediction performance is improved. (3) An online self-tuning mechanism for the weights and biases of neural networks is designed to correct cumulative estimation errors in long-term predictions and reduce the effects of local fluctuations and regeneration. The proposed prediction model enables the HI values in future cycles to be iteratively estimated using the one-step-ahead method, and the RUL can be forecast once the predicted signal falls. Experimental results indicate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed prediction method.