Battery Electric Vehicle Market Research Articles

Trends in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of future light duty electric vehicles

The majority of previous studies examining life cycle greenhouse gas (LCGHG) emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have focused on efficiency-oriented vehicle designs with limited battery capacities. However, two dominant trends in the US BEV market make these studies increasingly obsolete: sales show significant increases in battery capacity and attendant range and are increasingly dominated by large luxury or high-performance vehicles. In addition, an era of new use and ownership models may mean significant changes to vehicle utilization, and the carbon intensity of electricity is expected to decrease. Thus, the question is whether these trends significantly alter our expectations of future BEV LCGHG emissions.To answer this question, three archetypal vehicle designs for the year 2025 along with scenarios for increased range and different use models are simulated in an LCGHG model: an efficiency-oriented compact vehicle; a high performance luxury sedan; and a luxury sport utility vehicle. While production emissions are less than 10% of LCGHG emissions for today’s gasoline vehicles, they account for about 40% for a BEV, and as much as two-thirds of a future BEV operated on a primarily renewable grid. Larger battery systems and low utilization do not outweigh expected reductions in emissions from electricity used for vehicle charging. These trends could be exacerbated by increasing BEV market shares for larger vehicles. However, larger battery systems could reduce per-mile emissions of BEVs in high mileage applications, like on-demand ride sharing or shared vehicle fleets, meaning that trends in use patterns may countervail those in BEV design.

Vehicle Optimal Control Design to Meet the 1.5 °C Target: A Control Design Framework for Vehicle Subsystems

Current studies have achieved energy savings of vehicle subsystems through various control strategies, but these control strategies lack a benchmark to measure whether these energy savings are sufficient. This work proposes a control design framework that uses the 1.5 °C target in the Paris Agreement as a benchmark to measure the adequacy of energy savings of vehicle subsystems. This control design framework involves two points. One is the conversion of the 1.5 °C target into a constraint on the energy consumption of a vehicle subsystem. The other is the optimal control design of the vehicle subsystem under this constraint. To describe the specific application of this control design framework, we conduct a case study concerning the control design of active suspension in a battery electric light-duty vehicle. By comparison with a widely used linear quadratic regulator (LQR) method, we find that this control design framework can both ensure the performance comparable to the LQR method and help to meet the 1.5 °C target in the Paris Climate Agreement. In addition, a sensitivity analysis shows that the control effect is hardly changed by battery electric vehicle market share and electricity CO2 intensity. This work might provide insight on ways that the automotive industry could contribute to the Paris Agreement.

Who are the early adopters of fuel cell vehicles?

All new technologies, including automotive technologies, are first purchased by early adopters. These consumers are currently posed with the choice of purchasing a fuel cell vehicle (FCV) or a variety of other alternatively fueled vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For FCVs to be commercially successful they need to carve out their own niche in the automotive market, something which may prove challenging in the face of strong BEV market growth. The results in this paper come from a questionnaire survey of 470 FCV owners and 1550 BEV owners. The paper explores the socio-economic profile, travel patterns, and attitudes of FCV buyers and compares them to the buyers of BEVs. The result suggests that the adopters of BEVs and FCV are similar in gender, level of education, household income, and have similar travel patterns. They have differences in age, ownership of previous alternative fuel vehicles, attitudes towards sustainability, and more FCV owners live in rented homes and apartment buildings. The results of the study suggest that FCVs may appeal to consumers who live in homes where they cannot recharge a BEV or install their own charger. FCVs still have several challenges to overcome, including the lack of hydrogen refueling stations and a lack of FCV models to choose from.

Effect of electricity generation mix on battery electric vehicle adoption and its environmental impact

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are gaining much attention as the next technology paradigm in the transport sector because it can mitigate the environmental problems, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Many countries are attempting to promote the consumer adoption of BEVs in this sense by providing subsidies and expanding their related infrastructure. The expected environmental effect of BEVs is an important factor in increasing the consumer adoption of BEVs, and the environmental impact of BEVs is directly related to the electricity generation mix. In this study, we analyze how the consumer adoption behavior of BEVs and their environmental impact can be changed by improving the environmental performance of BEVs based on the electricity generation mix. To this end, we estimate consumer preferences in vehicles by using a discrete choice experiment survey and a mixed logit model. Then, on the basis of the estimation results, we simulate changes in consumers’ vehicle adoption behavior according to various electricity generation mixes and measure the environmental impact of these changes. Analysis results show changing the electricity generation mix to renewable-oriented mix can promote BEV's market share up to 10% and reduce GHG emissions up to 5% by 2026.

The impact of battery electric vehicles on vehicle purchase and driving behavior in Norway

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represent a promising solution to carbon emissions within the transportation sector, but relatively little is known about how limited-range vehicles will change consumer behavior. This study evaluates the impact of large-scale introduction of BEVs on the new car market in Norway, and seeks to determine whether BEVs lead to an increase in household vehicle ownership. Analysis of online survey responses from 4405 new car owners suggests that BEVs lead to an increase in household vehicle ownership of approximately 15–20%. We arrive at this finding using three independent methods: logistic regression of the likelihood of replacing a vehicle on vehicle type, analysis of correlation between the rate of vehicle replacement and BEV market share across municipalities, and linear regression of changes in total new car sales on changes in BEV sales across counties and years. Survey responses on driving habits also suggest that BEV purchases lead to a moderate increase in vehicle miles traveled. These results suggest that real-world emissions savings may be somewhat less than those predicted by life-cycle analysis. Policy recommendations include focusing incentives for BEVs on those bought as replacements for a conventional vehicle.

Assessing the transition towards Battery Electric Vehicles: A Multi-Level Perspective on drivers of, and barriers to, take up

The Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework on transitions is used to interpret European electric vehicle take up and auto mobility transition. It finds that environmental and energy security pressures have created a favourable landscape ‘push’ for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) that in turn has encouraged and facilitated serious commitment from some manufacturers. Yet BEVs, as a niche product seeking to disrupt an entrenched and established regime, face significant multi-level forces acting as barriers against such a transition, which the paper explores. This combination of factors creates a situation where BEV market penetration remains far below the level required for mass market transition. For BEVs to ‘cross the chasm’ and gain an established foothold in the market and hence significantly disrupt the regime, more holistic and effective solutions are required. It is argued that, so far, this has yet to be fully taken on board by policy makers.

Analysing the usage and evidencing the importance of fast chargers for the adoption of battery electric vehicles

An appropriate charging infrastructure is one of the key aspects needed to support the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and it is suggested that publically available fast chargers could play a key role in this infrastructure. As fast charging is a relatively new technology, very little research is conducted on the topic using real world datasets, and it is of utmost importance to measure actual usage of this technology and provide evidence on its importance to properly inform infrastructure planning. 90,000 fast charge events collected from the first large-scale roll-outs and evaluation projects of fast charging infrastructure in the UK and the US and 12,700 driving days collected from 35 BEVs in the UK were analysed. Using multiple regression analysis, we examined the relationship between daily driving distance and standard and fast charging and demonstrated that fast chargers are more influential. Fast chargers enabled using BEVs on journeys above their single-charge range that would have been impractical using standard chargers. Fast chargers could help overcome perceived and actual range barriers, making BEVs more attractive to future users. At current BEV market share, there is a vital need for policy support to accelerate the development of fast charge networks.

The impact of car specifications, prices and incentives for battery electric vehicles in Norway: Choices of heterogeneous consumers

Electric vehicles (EVs), specifically Battery EVs (BEVs), can offer significant energy and emission savings over internal combustion engine vehicles. Norway has a long history of research and government incentives for BEVs. The BEV market in Norway allows us to fully examine consumers’ BEV choices influenced by car specifications, prices and government incentives (public bus lanes access, toll waiver and charging stations). The Random-Coefficient Discrete Choice Model (referred to as the BLP model) is applied to understand the choices of heterogeneous personal consumers and business buyers. Our study is instantiated on the entire EV sales data in Norway from 2011 to 2013, as well as a set of demographics at the municipality level. The results suggest significant positive effects of BEV technology improvement, space, toll waiver and charging station density on EV demand for both personal consumers and business buyers. However, the effects on business buyers may be generally less pronounced than on personal consumers. Interestingly, bus lanes access demonstrates a negative impact for personal consumers, possibly due to consumers’ concern regarding bus lane congestion. In addition, preferences on the BEV price can vary statistically among consumers with different income levels. Compared to the BEV technology development, demographical features and municipal incentives may have generally less impacts on market shares within the BEV market.

Incentives for promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Norway

Norway has become a global forerunner in the field of electromobility and the BEV market share is far higher than in any other country. One likely reason for this is strong incentives for promoting purchase and ownership of BEVs. The purpose of this study is to describe the role of incentives for promoting BEVs, and to determine what incentives are critical for deciding to buy a BEV and what groups of buyers respond to different types of incentives. The questions are answered with data from a survey among nearly 3400 BEV owners in Norway.Exemptions from purchase tax and VAT are critical incentives for more than 80% of the respondents. This is very much in line with previous research, which suggests that up-front price reduction is the most powerful incentive in promoting EV adoption. To a substantial number of BEV owners, however, exemption from road tolling or bus lane access is the only decisive factor.Analyses show that there are clear delineations between incentive groups, both in terms of age, gender, and education. Income is a less prominent predictor, which probably results from the competitive price of BEVs in the Norwegian market. Perhaps most interesting is the assumed relation between incentives and character of transport systems the respondents engage in.

Comparison of plug-in electric vehicle adoption in the United States: A state by state approach

This paper examines the correlation between social, economic, geographic, and policy factors on plug-in electric vehicle adoption across U.S. states for the purpose of understanding: which factors are significantly correlated to variations in battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market shares, how those factors vary between BEV and PHEV markets, and how those factors compare with those identified as influential in driving early hybrid (HEV) markets. Our methodology includes a statistical analysis of new vehicle registration data from calendar year 2013 to test the relationship between PHEV and BEV market shares against statewide variables. Several of the factors that existing studies find to be important in earlier HEV markets are also correlated with 2013 PHEV or BEV market shares. We also find different sets of variables to be significantly correlated with PHEV and BEV market shares, respectively, which suggests that these markets are distinct. The differences between the factors that are correlated with PHEV and BEV market shares highlight the possibility that strategies for promoting the overall adoption of plug-in vehicles may not affect the two vehicle types equally. However, further analysis should be undertaken prior to developing policies and approaches based on these findings.

Dynamic fleet-based life-cycle greenhouse gas assessment of the introduction of electric vehicles in the Portuguese light-duty fleet

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector is the goal of several current policies and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are seen as one option to achieve this goal. However, the introduction of BEVs in the fleet is gradual and their benefits will depend on how they compare with increasingly more energy-efficient internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The aim of this article is to assess whether displacing ICEVs by BEVs in the Portuguese light-duty fleet is environmentally beneficial (focusing on GHG emissions), taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet. A dynamic fleet-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the Portuguese light-duty fleet was performed, addressing life-cycle (LC) GHG emissions through 2030 across different scenarios. A model was developed, integrating: (i) a vehicle stock sub-model of the Portuguese light-duty fleet; and (ii) dynamic LC sub-models of three vehicle technologies (gasoline ICEV, diesel ICEV and BEV). Two metrics were analyzed: (i) Total fleet LC GHG emissions (in Mton CO2 eq); and (ii) Fleet LC GHG emissions per kilometer (in g CO2 eq/km). A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of different parameters in the results and ranking of scenarios. The model baseline projected a reduction of 30–39 % in the 2010–2030 fleet LC GHG emissions depending on the BEV fleet penetration rate and ICEV fuel consumption improvements. However, for BEV introduction in the fleet to be beneficial compared to an increasingly more efficient ICEV fleet, a high BEV market share and electricity emission factor similar or lower to the current mix (485 g CO2 eq/kWh) need to be realized; these conclusions hold for the different conditions analyzed. Results were also sensitive to parameters that affect the fleet composition, such as those that change the vehicle stock, the scrappage rate, and the activity level of the fleet (11–19 % variation in GHG emissions in 2030), which are seldom assessed in the LCA of vehicles. The influence of these parameters also varies over time, becoming more important as time passes. These effects can only be captured by assessing Total fleet GHG emissions over time as opposed to the GHG emissions per kilometer metric. These results emphasize the importance of taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet, technology improvements over time, and changes in vehicle operation and background processes during the vehicle service life when assessing the potential benefits of displacing ICEVs by BEVs.

Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers

Properly determining the driving range is critical for accurately predicting the sales and social benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This study proposes a framework for optimizing the driving range by minimizing the sum of battery price, electricity cost, and range limitation cost—referred to as the “range-related cost”—as a measurement of range anxiety. The objective function is linked to policy-relevant parameters, including battery cost and price markup, battery utilization, charging infrastructure availability, vehicle efficiency, electricity and gasoline prices, household vehicle ownership, daily driving patterns, discount rate, and perceived vehicle lifetime. Qualitative discussion of the framework and its empirical application to a sample (N = 36,664) representing new car drivers in the United States is included. The quantitative results strongly suggest that ranges of less than 100 miles are likely to be more popular in the BEV market for a long period of time. The average optimal range among U.S. drivers is found to be largely inelastic. Still, battery cost reduction significantly drives BEV demand toward longer ranges, whereas improvement in the charging infrastructure is found to significantly drive BEV demand toward shorter ranges. The bias of a single-range assumption and the effects of range optimization and diversification in reducing such biases are both found to be significant.

Survey of daily vehicle travel distance and impact factors in Beijing

Due to the importance of distribution of the Daily Vehicle Kilometers Travelled (DVKT) to design the powertrain of the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), as well as to predict the energy and emission reduction caused by BEV and PHEV market penetration, a comprehensive survey was carried out in Beijing in the year of 2009, and more than 500 questionnaires including DVKT and the related factors were collected. The analysis results show that the average DVKT of the private passenger vehicle in Beijing was 46.35 km, and 68.2% of the travels were within 50 km while only 9.1% were longer than 100 km. The detailed analysis implied that the travel purpose is the most important impact factor of DVKT. With the same electric range, the BEV can cover approximately 5% more of the daily trips in Beijing than in the U.S. With the same charge depleting range, the average fuel consumption of the PHEV used in Beijing is 10-40% lower than that in the U.S.

Consumer Perceptions and Use of Driving Distance of Electric Vehicles

Popular media and even researchers commonly assume that ownership of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) provides consumers less performance and mobility than consumers expect. A common claim is that consumers have constant worry about the range of their BEVs, often termed “range anxiety.” BMW converted 450 Mini Coopers to all-electric drive (named the Mini E) and leased them to fleets and 235 private households in the Los Angeles, California, and New York–New Jersey regions from spring 2009 to spring 2010. Through the course of the 1-year lease, University of California, Davis (UCD), researchers conducted multiple online surveys and in-person interviews and administered weeklong driving diaries. This paper explores the reactions of Mini E drivers to the driving distance of the Mini E through the framework of a lifestyle learning process. Over time, Mini E drivers learned how the 104-mi range of the Mini E fit into their lifestyles. Drivers adapted and explored with their Mini E through activities such as altering driving behavior (such as speed and trip routes), optimizing charging opportunities, planning trips, and educating themselves on distances to destinations with the help of online and mobile mapping tools. In the course of the UCD Mini E consumer study, researchers found evidence suggesting that the driving range was not a major concern for these early adopters. Even with no public charging available to their vehicle, 100% of survey respondents stated that BEVs were suitable for daily use. The results of this study will be of interest to policy makers and practitioners interested in expanding the BEV market.