Basin Populations Research Articles

Plastome data provides new insights into population differentiation and evolution of Ginkgo in the Sichuan Basin of China

BackgroundGinkgo biloba L., an iconic living fossil, challenges traditional views of evolutionary stasis. While nuclear genomic studies have revealed population structure across China, the evolutionary patterns reflected in maternally inherited plastomes remain unclear, particularly in the Sichuan Basin - a potential glacial refugium that may have played a crucial role in Ginkgo’s persistence.ResultsAnalysis of 227 complete plastomes, including 81 newly sampled individuals from the Sichuan Basin, revealed three distinct maternal lineages differing from known nuclear genome patterns. We identified 170 sequence variants and extensive RNA editing (235 sites) with a bias toward hydrophobic amino acid conversions, suggesting active molecular evolution. A previously undocumented haplotype (IIA2), predominant in western Sichuan Basin populations, showed close genetic affinity with rare refugial haplotypes. Western populations exhibited higher haplotypic diversity and distinctive genetic structure, supporting the basin’s role as both glacial refugium and corridor for population expansion. Ancient trees (314–784 years) provided evidence for interaction between natural processes and historical human dispersal in shaping current genetic patterns.ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate substantial genetic diversity within Sichuan Basin Ginkgo populations and reveal dynamic molecular evolution through plastome variation and RNA editing patterns, challenging the notion of evolutionary stasis in this living fossil. This study provides crucial genomic resources for understanding Ginkgo’s evolution and informs conservation strategies for this endangered species.

Is sexual size dimorphism in walleye, Sander vitreus, a driver of seasonal movements in Lake Erie?

Walleye (Sander vitreus) are a sexually dimorphic species in which females are larger than males in adulthood. Walleye can also exhibit sex- and population-based differences in migration behavior. In Lake Erie, we used acoustic telemetry to test the prediction that female walleye exhibit larger broad-scale movements than males during the summer and autumn. This prediction was based on the hypothesis that greater foraging in females would be needed to satisfy their higher energy requirements. We quantified movements of males and females from distinct spawning populations from Lake Erie's west and east basins using a lake-wide grid of acoustic receivers in 2017 and 2018. We found no differences between male and female home range sizes, core range sizes, or distances travelled in either population. Fish length-at-tagging was unrelated to the size of a fish's home range or to its distance travelled, contrary to previous predictions about body size as a driver of migration distance in the Lake Erie population. We found that west basin walleye occupied large and indiscrete portions of the lake, but the core range of females extended into the central basin, whereas males were concentrated in the west basin. Walleye originating from the east basin confined their movements primarily to the east basin and showed stronger home range overlap among members of their population than did walleye from the west basin population. Within either population, walleye had more home range overlap with members of the same sex, which likely reflects differences in the migratory tendencies of males and females.

Socio-Healthcare for Older People in the Mediterranean Basin: An Integrative Review and Quality Appraisal.

The aging Mediterranean Basin population presents complex challenges for healthcare systems, which require innovative care approaches. The study aimed to critically assess 19 socio-healthcare practices in the Mediterranean Basin that target the elderly population by analyzing their theoretical foundations, integration of care services, ethical considerations, gender-specific approaches, and use of technology. An integrative literature review was conducted using a structured methodology. Diverse sources across multiple languages were searched, with the inclusion criteria focusing on the alignment of socio-healthcare practices with the components of the nursing metaparadigm, the incorporation of transversal values, and relevance to the elderly population. The socio-healthcare practices exhibited common themes, such as person-centered care, interdisciplinary collaboration, and incorporation of technology for coordinated care delivery. Ethical principles of autonomy, dignity, and respect were central, with some socio-healthcare practices addressing gender-specific care needs. Evidence-based findings emphasized holistic care, integration, ethics, and innovation in elderly socio-healthcare. New eldercare frameworks should integrate these aspects, which offer a comprehensive approach to addressing the complex needs of elderly patients. Managers should design systems prioritizing patient well-being, whereas policymakers should develop equitable and high-quality care policies that collectively improve the well-being of the elderly population in the Mediterranean Basin.

Application of otolith morphometrics in delineating population structure of Aphaniops stoliczkanus (Teleostei: Aphaniidae) in southern Iranian waters

AbstractWidely distributed Species in different geological and ecological environments often exhibit great intraspecific diversity. Aphaniops stoliczkanus (Day, 1872) is an endemic species of Middle East occurring over a vast geographic range in different basins. This species has been observed in freshwater, brackish water and hot sulphur springs; therefore, its populations are known to exhibit considerable morphological variation. In the present study, we have investigated the poorly studied populations of A. stoliczkanus of the Hormuz and Makran basins of Iran in terms of otolith morphology and morphometrics. According to the results, these populations can be divided into two distinct groups including east and west of the Strait of Hormuz. Our results also provide evidence that there is a relationship between otolith morphology and the environment, serving as environmental factors that may influence the formation of specific regions in the otolith shape. Despite the remarkable morphological similarities among otoliths in geographically close populations of Charak and Chiruyeh, our data purposed that geographically these populations have different dorsal tip shapes in their otolith. In comparison to the data from other studies, the otoliths of Qeshm Island appear to resemble the overall shape of otolith found in Oman very closely. However, it is believed that Qeshm Island population was separated from the Hormuz basin populations during the Holocene Sea level rise. Also, the outcomes of this study provide insights into the potential role of environmental factors in shaping intraspecific diversity and the migration patterns of this species within the Persian Gulf.

Cytochrome b Mitochondrial Gene Revealed a Strong Genetic Differentiation between Two Populations of the Endemic Freshwater Fish Moroccan Loach Cobitis maroccana Pellegrin, 1929

Cobitis maroccana, also known as the Moroccan loach, is an endemic freshwater fish found in the rivers of the Loukkos and Sebou basins in Morocco. In order to gain a better understanding of the genetic differentiation within C. maroccana from the Loukkos and Sebou populations, a comprehensive study was conducted, focusing on the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. A total of 30 sequences of the complete cytochrome b (1140 bp) were obtained from C. maroccana specimens. Through a combination of phylogenetic analysis, phylogeographic assessments, as well as the estimation of the Fst index, the research outcomes revealed significant genetic differentiation between the two juxtaposed basin populations. Notably, each of these basins displayed unique and distinct haplotype groups within the C. maroccana specimens. These intriguing findings strongly suppose that the populations in the Loukkos and Sebou basins have become reproductively isolated from each other over time, indicating limited or no interbreeding between them.

Genetic Differentiation of Reed Canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) within Eastern Europe and Eurasia.

Worldwide molecular research of economically important Phalaris arundinacea (Poaceae) is mainly focused on the invasions of this species from Europe to North America. Until the present study, the genetic diversity of the P. arundinacea had not been studied across the Baltic countries. The objective of this research is to evaluate the diversity of Lithuanian populations of P. arundinacea at simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci comparatively among populations of the Baltic countries, Luxembourg, and the Russian Far East (Eurasian), evaluating differentiation between Lithuanian populations and ornamental accessions, and relating these with environmental features. For six selected Lithuanian river basin populations, GBS low density SNPs were used to determine genetic diversity. Bayesian analysis showed that Eurasian populations of Phalaris arundinacea consist of two gene clusters. Statistically significant genetic differentiation among European and Eurasian populations was documented. Lithuanian genotypes growing naturally along rivers are genetically distinct from cultivated ornamentals. GBS-SNPs divided the six selected Nemunas river basins into three distinct groups with one, two, or three rivers in separate groupings for genetic diversity. Genetic diversity is primarily within, rather than among, Lithuanian, eastern European, and Eurasian populations of P. arundinacea across the continent. Thus, restoration efforts would benefit from local population seed origination.

Phylogenetic insights into the genetic legacies of Hungarian-speaking communities in the Carpathian Basin

This study focuses on exploring the uniparental genetic lineages of Hungarian-speaking minorities residing in rural villages of Baranja (Croatia) and the Zobor region (Slovakia). We aimed to identify ancestral lineages by examining genetic markers distributed across the entire mitogenome and on the Y-chromosome. This allowed us to discern disparities in regional genetic structures within these communities. By integrating our newly acquired genetic data from a total of 168 participants with pre-existing Eurasian and ancient DNA datasets, our goal was to enrich the understanding of the genetic history trajectories of Carpathian Basin populations. Our findings suggest that while population-based analyses may not be sufficiently robust to detect fine-scale uniparental genetic patterns with the sample sizes at hand, phylogenetic analysis of well-characterized Y-chromosomal Short Tandem Repeat (STR) data and entire mitogenome sequences did uncover multiple lineage ties to far-flung regions and eras. While the predominant portions of both paternal and maternal DNA align with the East-Central European spectrum, rarer subhaplogroups and lineages have unveiled ancient ties to both prehistoric and historic populations spanning Europe and Eastern Eurasia. This research augments the expansive field of phylogenetics, offering critical perspectives on the genetic constitution and heritage of the communities in East-Central Europe.

Species divergence in valleys: the phylogeny of Phrynocephalus forsythii complex and description of a new species.

Geographic isolation caused by high-altitude valleys promotes the formation of geographic segregation of species, leading to species differentiation. The subgenus Oreosaura contains viviparous species from the Tibetan Plateau and the vicinity of the Tarim Basin, which can be divided into three species complexes according to their geographical distribution: Phrynocephalus vlangalii, Phrynocephalus theobaldi, and Phrynocephalus forsythii. However, molecular data for the P. forsythii complex are limited and the diversity of this species complex has been greatly underestimated. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the species diversity of Oreosaura and species differentiation within the P. forsythii complex. We analysed the species diversity of Oreosaura by combining previous data, constructed a phylogenetic tree of the subgenus based on cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and 16S sequences, and estimated the divergence time. The results suggest significant genetic differences between the Tarim Basin populations and adjacent mountain valley populations of the P. forsythii complex and that the combination of deep valley landscapes in the high mountains and ice-age events have contributed to the differentiation of the viviparous toad-headed agama lizard, which is a key factor in the phylogenetics of the P. forsythii complex. Furthermore, we identified a population collected from Wuqia County, Xinjiang, as a new species, Phrynocephalus kangsuensis sp. nov. The results will provide data for phylogenetic studies following the P. forsythii complex and help demonstrate that valleys promote the formation of Phrynocephalus species.

DNA barcode reveals a new lineage of Astyanax bimaculatus (Linnaeus 1758) in the basins of the Western Northeast Atlantic Region, Brazil.

Astyanax bimaculatus are small characids known as piabas or lambaris that form a complex encompassing 18 species, including cryptic species. The present study aimed to use DNA barcode to analyze populations of A. bimaculatus found in Maranhão hydrographic basins, comparing molecular diversity indices between populations from the other Brazilian basins. The results revealed the formation of 32 haplotypes (h = 0.9289; π = 0.0523). Seven haplogroups were formed with intrapopulation genetic distance ranging from 0 to 2%. The Maranhão populations of the Western Northeast Atlantic Region basins separated from the other analyzed basins, corroborating with the groups generated in BAPS and with the Bayesian Inference tree. The occurrence of exclusive OTUs for the Maranhão populations of the Western Northeast Atlantic Region was confirmed through delimitation models. Thus, the data from this study provide information on the genetic diversity of the A. bimaculatus complex with the detection of a different lineage for the State of Maranhão, contributing to the understanding of the group's systematics.

Life-cycle modeling reveals high recovery potential of at-risk wild Chinook salmon via improved migrant survival

Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Columbia River basin are threatened by anthropogenic changes to migratory corridors, estuaries, and natal habitats. Streams provide spatially heterogeneous natal habitats essential for salmon spawning and rearing life stages. We fit a statistical state-space model to salmon populations in Idaho's Middle Fork Salmon River (MFSR) to assess spatial variation in natal productivity and population growth. Our model integrated multiple long-term data sets to estimate variation in per-capita smolt production and smolt-to-adult (SAR) survival. Smolt production varied across stream segments, averaging 104.48 female smolts per spawning female, while SARs averaged 0.74%. Chinook salmon population growth rates exceeded replacement in 17% of segments (4 of 23). By increasing SARs to 1.8% (near the lower bound of Columbia River basin recovery targets), we predict that all 23 MFSR segments will yield positive population growth rates at contemporary (very low) spawner densities. Our analysis suggests that for Snake River basin populations within high-quality natal habitats, SAR improvements will elevate salmon population growth rates and enhance restoration of at-risk wild Chinook salmon.

Forces driving transposable element load variation during Arabidopsis range expansion.

Genetic load refers to the accumulated and potentially life-threatening deleterious mutations in populations. Understanding the mechanisms underlying genetic load variation of transposable element (TE) insertion, a major large-effect mutation, during range expansion is an intriguing question in biology. Here, we used 1,115 global natural accessions of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) to study the driving forces of TE load variation during its range expansion. TE load increased with range expansion, especially in the recently established Yangtze River basin population. Effective population size, which explains 62.0% of the variance in TE load, high transposition rate, and selective sweeps contributed to TE accumulation in the expanded populations. We genetically mapped and identified multiple candidate causal genes and TEs, and revealed the genetic architecture of TE load variation. Overall, this study reveals the variation in TE genetic load during Arabidopsis expansion and highlights the causes of TE load variation from the perspectives of both population genetics and quantitative genetics.

River drainage rearrangements and the phylogeographic pattern of the annual fish Austrolebias arachan (Cyprinodontiformes, Rivulidae)

AbstractPalaeogeographical and climatic processes are among the main factors affecting biological diversity and distribution patterns. In freshwater systems, major dispersal processes are caused by river drainage rearrangements where the direction of flow of a stream changes, allowing range expansions and connection of previously isolated communities. In the Neotropical region, this process has been known to connect part of the southwestern Amazon basin with La Plata basin during the formation of the Bolivian Orocline, and La Plata basin with Atlantic coastal basins since the split from Africa. Several species of annual fishes of the genus Austrolebias are known to inhabit seasonal ponds both in the Rio Negro basin (southern tip of Brazilian shield, Lower Uruguay ecoregion), and the headwaters of rivers draining into the Merín lagoon (coastal drainages, Laguna dos Patos ecoregion). The aim of this article was to analyse the phylogeographic pattern of Austrolebias arachan in the context of putative river rearrangements. Two hypotheses were tested: (a) the spatial configuration of river basins determines the genetic structure and distribution of this species, and (b) coastal drainages captured sections of upland shield river drainages. We analysed a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and a fragment of a nuclear intron locus. Results support the prediction of the first hypothesis: geographic variation within A. arachan is structured according to geography. The second hypothesis was in part confirmed: the migration analyses showed that Rio Negro basin populations could have acted as a source for Laguna Merin basin. However, migration estimates also support gene flow in the opposite direction. The cytochrome b haplotype network configuration and its phylogenetic pattern suggests at least two independent events of capture, with divergence time estimated at the onset of Pleistocene glacial cycles.

The Molecular Evidence for Invasive Climber Echinocystis lobata (Michx.) Torr. & A. Gray in Eastern and Central Europe

The climbing cucurbit Echinocystis lobata, native to North America and alien to many European countries, was assessed for its genetic diversity and differentiation across its introduced range of populations by applying markers of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Various tests, including an evaluation of the intrapopulation diversity, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses, showed that the Central and Eastern European populations differing in geography and arrival history are also distinct in the genetic parameters. Genetic diversity, defined as the percentage of polymorphic AFLP loci, ranged within 28–62% (on average 51%) at the regional scale (in Romanian, Baltic State, and Central Russian populations), and was very similar to this parameter at the local scale (on average 52% for Lithuanian populations). The differentiation was significant among the populations of the regions (Ф = 0.125, p = 0.001) and at the local scale (among the Lithuanian populations of the different river basins, Ф = 0.058, p = 0.010). The Bayesian results suggested the presence of three genetic clusters among the 29 sites, with populations from Romania, Latvia, Estonia, and the northern part of Lithuania comprising one prevailing cluster, populations from the Nemunas river basin of Lithuania comprising either the former mentioned cluster or the second cluster, and populations of Central Russia comprising the third genetic cluster. Overall, E. lobata in Europe has probably originated from multiple introductions. The intentional anthropogenic seed dispersal by marketing accompanied by hydrochory might have an impact on such a profile of genetic clusters.

Species tree analyses and speciation-based species delimitation support new species in the relict catfish family Diplomystidae and provide insights on recent glacial history in Patagonia

Diplomystidae is an early-diverged family of freshwater catfish endemic to southern South America. We have recently collected five juvenile specimens belonging to this family from the Bueno River Basin, a basin which the only previous record was a single juvenile specimen collected in 1996. This finding confirms the distribution of the family further South in northern Patagonia, but poses new questions about the origin of this population in an area with a strong glacial history. We used phylogenetic analyses to evaluate three different hypotheses that could explain the origin of this population in the basin. First, the population could have originated in Atlantic basins (East of the Andes) and dispersed to the Bueno Basin after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) via river reversals, as it has been proposed for other population of Diplomystes as well as for other freshwater species from Patagonia. Second, the population could have originated in the geographically close Valdivia Basin (West of the Andes) and dispersed south to its current location in the Bueno Basin. Third, regardless of its geographic origin (West or East of the Andes), the Bueno Basin population could have a longer history in the basin, surviving in situ through the LGM. In addition, we conducted species delimitation analyses using a recently developed method that uses a protracted model of speciation. Our goal was to test the species status of the Bueno Basin population along with another controversial population in Central Chile (Biobío Basin), which appeared highly divergent in previous studies with mtDNA. The phylogenetic analyses showed that the population from the Bueno Basin is more related to Atlantic than to Pacific lineages, although with a deep divergence that predated the LGM, supporting in situ survival rather than postglacial dispersal. In addition, these analyses also showed that the species D. nahuelbutaensis is polyphyletic, supporting the need for a taxonomic reevaluation. The species delimitation analyses supported two new species which are described using molecular diagnostic characters: Diplomystes arratiae sp. nov. from the Biobío, Carampangue, and Laraquete basins, maintaining D. nahuelbutaensis valid only for the Imperial Basin, and Diplomystes habitae sp. nov. from the Bueno Basin. This study greatly increases the number of species within both the family Diplomystidae and Patagonia, and contributes substantially to the knowledge of the evolution of southern South American freshwater biodiversity during its glacial history. Given the important contribution to the phylogenetic diversity of the family, we recommend a high conservation priority for both new species. Finally, this study highlights an exemplary scenario where species descriptions based only on DNA data are particularly valuable, bringing additional elements to the ongoing debate on DNA-based taxonomy.

The Lower Ishim Basin in the Sociocultural Space of the Trans-Ural Neolithic (based on data from the Mergen archaeological microregion)

The Neolithic period in the Lower Ishim Basin (Western Siberia) is represented by several cultures and pottery groups (Boborykino, Koshkino, the group of the cordoned ware, Kozlovo, Mahanjar, comb ceramics with the features of the Sosnovoostrovskaya Culture, Kokuy, and Ekaterininsk). The reference territory for the study of the period comprises the north-eastern shore of Lake Mergen. Basen on the study of the settlements of Mergen 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 the vectors and nature of the relations between the Lower Ishim Basin population and that of the adjoining territories have been identified. The aim was set by the need for tracking their dynamics in retrospective — from Neolithisation of the region to the final stage of the period, and in the context of the extant V.S. Mosin’s hypothesis of the sociocultural space of the Trans-Urals. As the basic markers of these processes, the following have been considered: raw material preferences within the lithic industries; morphological, ornamental, and technological specifics of the featured ceramic complexes; and specifics of economic adaptation. The data analysis has revealed that in the early and middle Neolithic (7th — mid to the third quarter of the 5th mil. BC) the dominant direction of contacts was south-south-western, western, and, proba-bly, north-western (the Upper Ishim River and the Turgay Depression, the Tobol-Iset and Upper Miass River regions, the Lower Tobol River Basin, left bank of the Irtysh River, and, probably, the Konda lowland). The population of the Ishim River valley during this period constituted an integral part of the sociocultural space of the Trans-Urals. At the end of the Neolithic (the third quarter of the 5th — first quarter of the 4th mil. BC), the principal vector of the relations of the population of the Lower Ishim Basin shifts to the east, which resulted in the formation of the syncretic Kokuy complexes (on the basis of the Artyn Culture of the right-bank Irtysh Basin and Baraba and in the penetration into the river valley of the bearers of the comb-pit (Ekaterininsk) tradition of the Middle Irtysh River Basin.

Nature of Chemical Bond in BeF− Anion: A Charge Shift Bond From Electron Density Signatures

AbstractThe nature of chemical bonding in BeF− anion is investigated quantum mechanically. Topological analyses within the realm of quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) and electron localization function (ELF) clearly establish the bonds as having “Charge shift” character. The laplacian of electron density is significantly positive and the basin population is lower with a large covariance, indicating significant charge shift character. Detailed analysis reveals no multiple bonding character in this anion and its heavier analogues.

Groundwater quality analysis using water quality index in Wonosari basin, Gunungkidul regency-Indonesia

Wonosari Basin is a physiographical unit in Gunungkidul Regency, Indonesia, that has enormous groundwater potential. Limestone inside the basin and dense population can harm the environment. The research aimed to analyze the groundwater quality in the Wonosari Basin based on the applicable quality standards, determine the water condition using the Water Quality Index (WQI), and determine the spatial pattern of the WQI grade. The total sample used in this research is 21 samples. Total Dissolved Solid (TDS), pH, Iron (Fe), Manganese (Mn), Sulfate (SO4), Nitrate (NO3), Hardness (CaCO3), and Total Coliform values of the groundwater samples were inputted to the weighted arithmetic WQI using Microsoft Excell to analyze the water quality. The spatial analysis was carried out using the cross-tabulation method with Microsoft Excell. The water quality standard used in this research is Regulation of the Minister of Health of the Republic of Indonesia number 23 of 2017. The research result showed that total coliform is the only parameter that exceeds its maximum acceptable presence, WQI values indicate that most of the groundwater samples have good quality, and the spatial pattern of water quality follows the population density.

Dispersive currents explain patterns of population connectivity in an ecologically and economically important fish.

How to identify the drivers of population connectivity remains a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. Answering this question can be challenging in aquatic environments where dynamic lake and ocean currents coupled with high levels of dispersal and gene flow can decrease the utility of modern population genetic tools. To address this challenge, we used RAD-Seq to genotype 959 yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a species with an ~40-day pelagic larval duration (PLD), collected from 20 sites circumscribing Lake Michigan. We also developed a novel, integrative approach that couples detailed biophysical models with eco-genetic agent-based models to generate "predictive" values of genetic differentiation. By comparing predictive and empirical values of genetic differentiation, we estimated the relative contributions for known drivers of population connectivity (e.g., currents, behavior, PLD). For the main basin populations (i.e., the largest contiguous portion of the lake), we found that high gene flow led to low overall levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F ST = 0.003). By far the best predictors of genetic differentiation were connectivity matrices that were derived from periods of time when there were strong and highly dispersive currents. Thus, these highly dispersive currents are driving the patterns of population connectivity in the main basin. We also found that populations from the northern and southern main basin are slightly divergent from one another, while those from Green Bay and the main basin are highly divergent (F ST = 0.11). By integrating biophysical and eco-genetic models with genome-wide data, we illustrate that the drivers of population connectivity can be identified in high gene flow systems.

Половозрастная дифференциация предметного комплекса одежды по материалам погребальных памятников Верхнего Приобья второй половины I тыс. до н. э.

The author addresses the features of differentiation by sex and age of the clothing inventory based on the materials from funerary sites found in the Upper Ob’ Region and dated by the Early Iron Age. The paper is mainly based on the materials from the sites of the Bolsherechenskaya cultural and historical community of the 8th (7th)—3rd (2nd) centuries BC. The author studies the clothing inventory from 136 burials. The analysis reveals a rather motley picture of sex and age differentiation of jewelry worn by the Upper Ob’ Region population in the Early Iron Age, indicating absence of uniformity in the design of funerary costume. It was not possible to trace any standard sets of jewelry for individual age and sex groups of the population of the Upper Ob’ basin in the Early Iron Age. Absence of any canon in the design of the funerary costume contributed to its individualization. Changes in the quantitative and qualitative composition of the clothing inventory of the Upper Ob’ basin population in the second half of the 1st millennium BC is explained, in our opinion, by a change in the vital statuses of individuals. Conventionally, we can distinguish three periods of changes in the ensemble of the costume: child’s to juvenile, juvenile to adult, and then adult to senile one. This process was individual, depending on the life history of a particular person.

A LONG-TERM ESTIMATION AND MODELING OF DOMESTIC WATER RESOURCES IN THE YARMOUK RIVER BASIN-JORDAN

This paper presents an assessment of the supply and demand of domestic water resources in the Yarmouk River Basin-Jordan over a twenty-year period and a long-term estimate of domestic water use for the coming years through 2030. The basin was selected because of water-related problems ranging from management to water scarcity and overpopulation. These problems have increased pressure on the domestic water supply, thus the population’s demand for water far exceeds the water supply from internal wells, necessitating management actions to bridge the gap between domestic supply and demand. The method includes identifying the governorates, wells, cities, villages, and computing the population in the basin governorates. Domestic water demand was assessed on a per capita water basis in 1997 and 2017. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to estimate usage behavior. The results showed an increase in the basin population from 0.64 to 1.53 million, more than doubling. Comparing the population demand with the internal water supply showed significant changes, as the increase in water use was remarkably high despite the decline in per capita water. ARIMA estimates a 2% increase in domestic use annually and 15% through 2030, challenging the future of water supplies. Water management actions will address this challenge, such as the inter-basins located outside the Yarmouk Basin, thus resolving supply shortage issues. These findings are important as a baseline for future studies, and can assist stakeholders in taking actions such as reviewing groundwater data, detecting illegal practices, water harvesting, and assessing non-revenue water.