A LONG-TERM ESTIMATION AND MODELING OF DOMESTIC WATER RESOURCES IN THE YARMOUK RIVER BASIN-JORDAN

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment of the supply and demand of domestic water resources in the Yarmouk River Basin-Jordan over a twenty-year period and a long-term estimate of domestic water use for the coming years through 2030. The basin was selected because of water-related problems ranging from management to water scarcity and overpopulation. These problems have increased pressure on the domestic water supply, thus the population’s demand for water far exceeds the water supply from internal wells, necessitating management actions to bridge the gap between domestic supply and demand. The method includes identifying the governorates, wells, cities, villages, and computing the population in the basin governorates. Domestic water demand was assessed on a per capita water basis in 1997 and 2017. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to estimate usage behavior. The results showed an increase in the basin population from 0.64 to 1.53 million, more than doubling. Comparing the population demand with the internal water supply showed significant changes, as the increase in water use was remarkably high despite the decline in per capita water. ARIMA estimates a 2% increase in domestic use annually and 15% through 2030, challenging the future of water supplies. Water management actions will address this challenge, such as the inter-basins located outside the Yarmouk Basin, thus resolving supply shortage issues. These findings are important as a baseline for future studies, and can assist stakeholders in taking actions such as reviewing groundwater data, detecting illegal practices, water harvesting, and assessing non-revenue water.