Baseline Plan Research Articles

Studying the impact of uncertainty in operational release planning – An integrated method and its initial evaluation

Context Uncertainty is an unavoidable issue in software engineering and an important area of investigation. This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on total duration (i.e., make-span) for implementing all features in operational release planning. Objective The uncertainty factors under investigation are: (1) the number of new features arriving during release construction, (2) the estimated effort needed to implement features, (3) the availability of developers, and (4) the productivity of developers. Method An integrated method is presented combining Monte-Carlo simulation (to model uncertainty in the operational release planning (ORP) process) with process simulation (to model the ORP process steps and their dependencies as well as an associated optimization heuristic representing an organization-specific staffing policy for make-span minimization). The method allows for evaluating the impact of uncertainty on make-span. The impact of uncertainty factors both in isolation and in combination are studied in three different pessimism levels through comparison with a baseline plan. Initial evaluation of the method is done by an explorative case study at Chartwell Technology Inc. to demonstrate its applicability and its usefulness. Results The impact of uncertainty on release make-span increases – both in terms of magnitude and variance – with an increase of pessimism level as well as with an increase of the number of uncertainty factors. Among the four uncertainty factors, we found that the strongest impact stems from the number of new features arriving during release construction. We have also demonstrated that for any combination of uncertainty factors their combined (i.e., simultaneous) impact is bigger than the addition of their individual impacts. Conclusion The added value of the presented method is that managers are able to study the impact of uncertainty on existing (i.e., baseline) operational release plans pro-actively.

Climate change and water governance in Saskatchewan, Canada

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the successes and challenges of adaptation to climate change focusing on water governance institutions in Saskatchewan, a province located in the western Canadian prairies.Design/methodology/approach – A framework of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to the effects of climate change is employed. Data are obtained through qualitative research conducted through interviews and focus groups with stakeholders and people playing a role in water governance in Saskatchewan.Findings – There have been many positive institutional developments which have improved Saskatchewan's adaptive capacity. The most promising is the creation of local watershed advisory committees that are poised to implement on‐the‐ground water management decisions. What is lacking, however, is a long‐term comprehensive climate change and adaptation plan, with built‐in flexibility to address present and future climate variability. Without a long‐term baseline plan and vision, Saskatchewan rural...

CO2 geological storage field development–Application of baseline, monitoring and verification technology

The creation of a robust Baseline, Monitoring, and Verification (BMV) plan is key to assuring containment integrity in CO2 geological storage projects. A BMV plan has three main aims: Monitor CO2 movement in the subsurface, Calibrate dynamic earth models and finally, Verify volume of stored CO2. Wide ranges of potential BMV technologies available are currently tested in CCS pilots and industrial scale projects. This paper describes how to optimize the BMV plan design by adopting a risk-based approach and how the value of information (VOI) of specific monitoring technologies needs to be assessed to meet program objectives.

Development of an n-channel CCD, CCD-NeXT1, for Soft X-ray Imager onboard the NeXT satellite

NeXT (New X-ray Telescope) is the next Japanese X-ray astronomical satellite mission after the Suzaku satellite. NeXT aims to perform wide band imaging spectroscopy. Due to the successful development of a multilayer coated mirror, called a supermirror, NeXT can focus X-rays in the energy range from 0.1 up to 80 keV. To cover this wide energy range, we are in the process of developing a hybrid X-ray camera, Wideband X-ray Imager (WXI) as a focal plane detector of the supermirror. The WXI consists of X-ray CCDs (SXI) and CdTe pixelized detectors (HXI), which cover the lower and higher X-ray energy bands of 0.1–80 keV, respectively. The X-ray CCDs of the SXI are stacked above the CdTe pixelized detectors of the HXI. The X-ray CCDs of the SXI detect soft X-rays below ∼ 10 keV and allow hard X-rays pass into the CdTe detectors of the HXI without loss. Thus, we have been developing a “back-supportless CCD” with a thick depletion layer, a thinned silicon wafer, and a back-supportless structure. In this paper, we report the development and performances of an evaluation model of CCD for the SXI, “CCD-NeXT1”. We successfully fabricated two types of CCD-NeXT1, unthinned CCDs with 625- μ m thick wafer and 150- μ m thick thinned CCDs. By omitting the polishing process when making the thinned CCDs, we confirmed that the polishing process does not impact the X-ray performance. In addition, we did not find significant differences in the X-ray performance between the two types of CCDs. The energy resolution and readout noise are ∼ 140 eV (FWHM) at 5.9 keV and ∼ 5 electrons (RMS), respectively. The estimated thickness of the depletion layer is ∼ 80 μ m . The performances almost satisfy the requirements of the baseline plan of the SXI.

Decommissioning of the Inmarsat 2F3 satellite

The current paper describes the detailed operational planning process required for the decommissioning of the Inmarsat 2F3 satellite. The background to events which lead to the decision to decommission this satellite is presented and descriptions of the methods used to monitor the onboard propellant reserves are included in order to explain their role in determining the date of service termination. Orbital and operational factors are elaborated and then folded into a baseline plan for executing a sequence of orbit raising manoeuvres that would be necessary to increase the satellite altitude above the busy geostationary arc. Subsystem passivation activities to be performed on arrival at the final graveyard orbit are discussed and the paper concludes with the story of what actually happened with the first ever Inmarsat satellite decommissioning.

SU‐FF‐T‐421: The Influence of Field Length, Pitch, and Modulation Factor On the Quality of Helical Tomotherapy Plans

Purpose: The planning process for helical tomotherapy plans is governed by three basic planning parameters: field length, pitch ratio, and modulation factor. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the influence of each parameter on the achievable plan. Method and Materials: Using commercial treatment planning software (TomoTherapy, Inc.) the same head and neck case was re‐planned by the same person using different planning parameters. The standard settings (field length of 25 mm, pitch of 0.287 and modulation factor of 2.5) were used to generate a baseline plan. Using the standard settings for two parameters the third parameter was varied for different plans. Three field lengths (10, 25, 50 mm), four pitch ratios (0.2, 0.287, 0.5, 1) and seven modulation factors were used (1.5, 2, 2.5, 4, 6, 8, 10). The plans were evaluated in terms of treatment time, target coverage, conformity, and sensitive structure sparing. Results: Increasing the pitch ratio leads to an increase in the volume of unspecified tissues that receives prescription dose (less conformal plans) and an increase in the dose to sensitive structures. The treatment time did not significantly reduce with increasing pitch (there are fewer gantry rotation but the gantry rotation period increases).Similarly, an increased modulation reduces the dose to unspecified tissue and sensitive structures. However the cost is an increased treatment time. Using a larger field length increases the dose to unspecified tissue and sensitive structures while reducing the treatment time. All plans achieved acceptable target coverage and homogeneity. Conclusions: Changing the planning parameters mainly affects plan conformity. It appears that with respect to our standard settings a slight reduction of the pitch or a slight increase in the modulation factor should improve plan quality with a modest increase in treatment time. Conflict of Interest: One co‐author is employed by TomoTherapy, Inc.

9.1.2 Adaptive Test Process – Designing a Project Plan that Adapts to the State of a Project

AbstractConventional techniques for project planning make the flawed assumption that all activities and relations are known and can be planned a priori. Iteration models show that iteration is a fundamental aspect of novel projects, but they also assume all activities and interactions are known. Of course, some kind of hypothesized project baseline (plan) is required for management. Such plans are acknowledged to be imperfect, so management reserves are kept for schedule and budget where possible. How big should these reserves be? This paper describes research on an improved approach to process planning and control whereby activity modes are allowed to vary and dynamically recombine based on the evolving state of the project as it progresses. If the project is behind schedule or over budget, then activities or iterations which would seem prudent from a technical performance standpoint may not be feasible as originally planned. Similarly, if a project is ahead of schedule or under budget, additional improvements versus the original plan may add value. What is prudent depends on the effect of any action on the overall value of the project. As such decisions are made under uncertainty, the proposed approach accounts for uncertainties and their impacts (risks) in the decision. By assuming from the outset—while formulating the project plan—that the project will adapt, it is possible to build an improved project plan, one that is more accurate, realistic and flexible. Additionally, the proposed method supports management decisions about potential corrective actions during project execution. This paper applies the approach in the context of system verification and validation (V&V) processes.

How low can you go? The impact of reduced benefits and increased cost sharing.

Amid escalating health care costs and a managed care backlash, employers are considering traditional cost control methods from the pre-managed care era. We use an actuarial model to estimate the premium-reducing effects of two such methods: increasing employee cost sharing and reducing benefits. Starting from a baseline plan with rich benefits and low cost sharing, estimated premium savings as a result of eliminating five specific benefits were about 22 percent. The same level of savings was also achieved by increasing cost sharing from a 15 dollars copayment with no deductible to 20 percent coinsurance and a 250 dollars deductible. Further increases in cost sharing produced estimated savings of up to 50 percent. We discuss possible market- and individual-level effects of the proliferation of plans with high cost sharing and low benefits.

Economic grand rounds: the costs of parity mandates for mental health and substance abuse insurance benefits.

Employer-sponsored health plans typically provide less coverage for mental health and substance abuse treatment than for medical or surgical treatment. The merits and costs of mandating parity, or equivalent coverage, for insurance benefits for mental health and substance abuse treatment have been a recent topic of significant public debate. This article presents cost estimates for a variety of comprehensive parity mandates, including parity for different diagnoses, benefit provisions, and types of health insurance delivery systems.

Expert judgment in forecasting construction project completion

Construction projects are susceptible to cost and time overruns. Variations from planned schedule and cost estimates can result in huge losses for owners and contractors. In extreme cases, the viability of the project itself is jeopardised as a result of variations from baseline plans. Hence new methods and techniques which assist project managers in forecasting the expected variance in schedule and cost should be developed. This paper proposes a judgment‐based forecasting approach which will identify schedule variances from a baseline plan for typical construction projects. The proposed forecasting approach adopts multiple regression techniques and further utilises neural networks to capture the decision‐making procedure of project experts involved in schedule monitoring and prediction. The models developed were applied to a multistorey building project under construction and were found feasible for use in similar construction projects. The advantages and limitations of these two modelling process for prediction of schedule variance are discussed. The developed models were integrated with existing project management computer systems for the convenient and realistic generation of revised schedules at appropriate junctures during the progress of the project.

COMMUNITY RESPONSES TO VIOLENCE

Community level efforts are effective in the reduction of violence. Community-level interventions have three goals: to prevent the escalation of risk for violence among the families in the community, to assist families at risk of or using violence, and to protect victims of abuse. To prevent violence or reduce its prevalence, community groups need to collaborate to reduce the community-level risk factors. Assisting families and protecting victims of violence requires coordination of community services, including law enforcement, schools, therapists, courts, child care, and social services. All of these goals can best be achieved through the efforts of a community level, multidisciplinary council or board that directs the programs. A community process to establish an integrated program involves several steps. The leaders that are identified need to represent all the disciplines and the entire geographic area involved in the project. Once the leaders start meeting, the baseline information and plan can be developed. Then the project itself can be undertaken, with the support of the media and other appropriate organizations. Several examples of effective projects document this process and its success; the best efforts involve coalitions of private and governmental agencies working together. Physicians are integral to this process. The practice of medicine provides opportunities every day to prevent and intervene in potential cases of abuse and violence. Also, by participating actively in the community, physicians can be effective leaders to change attitudes and behaviors and institute programs toward reducing violence.

Decision framework for fast-track construction: A deterministic analysis

A deterministic analysis framework that permits the computation of an upper bound on the constant dollar expenditure that should be made to fast-track a project to achieve a specified duration is presented. It employs a baseline plan which corresponds to the traditional method of sequential design, construct, commission and operate, and the economic principle that one will continue to spend as long as the return on the incremental investment equals or exceeds the minimum attractive rate of return. The analysis is based on a generalized definition of fast-track construction, which includes ouerlapping of the construction and revenue phases and acceleration as well as overlapping of design and construction. An example is giuen to illustrate application of the framework.