Introduction In violent deaths, forensic autopsy is often regarded as the means for making the final medical diagnosis of the cause and manner of death; however, without other corroborative evidence (e.g., suicide note, prior history of suicide attempt/intent disclosure), drug intoxication and other poisoning deaths, especially among individuals with pre-existing substance use and/or mental health problems, pose challenges in determining the intent/manner of death. Given the rapid increase in prescription and illicit drug poisoning deaths in the 50+ age group, we examined precipitating/risk factors and toxicology results associated with poisoning deaths classified as suicides compared to intent-undetermined death (UnD) among decedents aged 50+. Methods The National Violent Death Reporting System, 2005-2015, provided data. The 2005-2015 NVDRS contained 56,118 suicide decedents and 7,752 UnDs aged 50+. Of these 50+-year olds’ deaths, poisoning deaths were 18.5% (N=10,363) of suicides and 65.7% (N=5,090) of UnDs. The present study focused on these 15,453 poisoning decedents and stratified them into three groups—suicide decedents who left a suicide note, suicide decedents who did not leave a note, and decedents classified as UnD. Following descriptive statistics using χ2 tests, multinomial logistic regression models were used to test study hypotheses (associations of intent/manner of death with precipitating/risk factors and positive toxicologies) controlling for incident year (time), state, and demographic variables. We chose suicide decedents who did not leave a suicide note as the baseline comparison group to better examine potential differences and similarities between them and UnDs. Results Of all poisoning deaths, 29.4% were classified as suicide decedents who left a note, 37.7% as suicides without a note, and 32.9% as UnDs. Of all NVDRS participating states, Maryland and Utah had the highest proportions of all poisoning deaths (82.8% and 58.9%, respectively) and the highest numbers of UnDs (52.5% of all UnDs in this study). We also found that of all states, Maryland had the highest proportion of Black decedents (34.6% of both poisoning suicides and UnDs). Analysis of time trend showed that the proportions of UnD cases in 2005 and 2015 were 36.5% and 30.0%, respectively, with a generally declining trend over the 11-year period. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that compared to suicide decedents without a note, those with a note were more likely to have been depressed and had physical health problems and other life stressors, while UnD cases were less likely to have had mental health problems and other life stressors but more likely to have had substance use and health problems. UnD cases were also more likely to be opioid (RRR=2.65, 95% CI=2.42-2.90) and cocaine (RRR=2.59, 95% CI=2.09-3.21) positive but less likely to be antidepressant positive (RRR=0.79, 95% CI=0.72-0.87). Those who left a note were older and more likely to be non-Hispanic White, but Blacks were more than twice as likely as non-Hispanic Whites to be UnDs. Gender was not a significant factor. Results from separate regression models in the highest UnD states (Maryland and Utah) and in states other than Maryland/Utah were similar. Conclusions The finding that UnDs had a higher likelihood of substance use problems and positive opioid and cocaine toxicology results suggests that their substance use/abuse was largely and directly responsible for their death. We could not compare UnDs to accidental overdose deaths, as the NVDRS does not include the latter, but such research among middle-aged and older adults is needed as many UnDs may be more correctly classified as unintentional overdose deaths. The extremely high UnD rates in Maryland and Utah are also likely reflections of the opioid epidemic that has raged in these two states. The study limitations were that as data on precipitating circumstances were largely collected from decedents’ informal support systems, the validity of these proxy-derived data is a concern as is incomplete/unknown data, and substantial numbers of toxicology-tested decedents had missing test results. However, the findings show that along with more accurate determination processes for intent/manner of death, substance use treatment and approaches to curbing opioid and other drug use problems are needed to prevent intentional and unintentional poisoning deaths. Racial disparities in UnDs also underscore the need for more effective approaches to prevention and curbing drug availability in communities with concentrations of low-income and racial/ethnic minority populations.
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