AbstractThe mid‐Holocene (7–5 ka) was a period with an increased seasonal insolation cycle, resulting from decreased insolation during northern hemisphere winter. Here, a set of six CMIP5 models is used to show that the decreased insolation reduced the upper‐tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, producing a weaker subtropical jet with less horizontal shear. These effects work to reduce the baroclinic and barotropic instability available for perturbations to grow, and in consequence, storm‐tracking results show that there are fewer winter storms over India and Pakistan (known as western disturbances). These western disturbances are weaker, resulting in a reduction in winter precipitation of around 15% in the north Indus Basin. Combined with previous work showing greater northwestward extent of the Indian monsoon during the mid‐Holocene, our Global climate models‐derived results are consistent with the Indus Basin changing from a summer‐growing season in the mid‐Holocene to a winter‐growing season in the present day.