Balkan Research Articles

On relations between cyber security index and iso 27001 standard index in western balkan countries

My aim in this article was to illustrate the relationships between the Western Balkan nations’ ISO 27001 index and the cyber security index, given the growing global interest in cyber security. The primary findings of this study were derived from the research methodology, which involved gathering data and information about the degree of cyber security applications in the Western Balkans, as represented by the cyber security index, as well as data about the degree of ISO 27001 standard application in Western Balkan countries, processing data for ISO 27001 certificates, creating an index of ISO 27001 certificates, and managing a regressive analysis on the relationships between the cyber security index and the ISO 27001 certificates index, while examining the path toward EU integration, they are also working to address concerns related to cyber security. This is because gaining a competitive edge in fields like information technology, artificial intelligence, digitalization, e-commerce, and e-government necessitates robust cyber defenses. The primary suggestion is that Western Balkan nations may better respond to cyberattacks and cyberthreats by implementing ISO standards including the ISO 27000 family of standards, particularly ISO 27001.

Media Sentiment on Air Pollution: Seasonal Trends in Relation to PM10 Levels

Air pollution remains a major public health concern globally, especially in the Western Balkan countries facing severe air quality problems. This study investigates the relationship between air quality, news media sentiment, and public discourse in Macedonia over a ten-year period (2014–2023). We employed sentiment analysis to examine the emotional tone of news coverage related to air pollution, and topic modeling to uncover recurring themes within news articles. Our analysis revealed a distinct seasonal pattern, with negative media sentiments peaking during winter months when PM10 levels were the highest. This finding aligns with the increased reliance on polluting fuels for winter heating. Interestingly, despite a stable number of neutral articles, a rise in positive-sentiment articles suggests a potential decrease in pollution levels or the effectiveness of new government policies. We identified recurring topics like air quality concerns in specific cities, public unease regarding factories, and ongoing scrutiny of government policies. Emerging topics included the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air quality, public discourse surrounding heating practices, and growing concerns about waste management. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between air pollution data, public discourse, and media framing, offering valuable insights for policymakers and media outlets in Macedonia.

Tick-borne diseases at the crossroads of the Middle East and central Europe

ObjectivesThe Balkan Peninsula, acting as a crossroad between central Europe and the Middle East, presents diverse ecosystems supporting various tick species capable of transmitting TBDs. This study focuses on Serbia and North Macedonia, both endemic for TBDs, aiming to investigate human-biting ticks’ prevalence, TBD prevalence, and major TBPs in blood samples. Patients and MethodsThis prospective observational study was conducted in 2022 at two medical centers, involving 45 patients from Novi Sad, Serbia, and 17 patients from Skopje, North Macedonia. All participants had either a tick still attached or had had one removed within the preceding 48 h. The study consisted in clinical evaluations of patients and testing of patient samples and ticks for tick-borne pathogens using a High-Throughput pathogen detection system based on microfluidic real-time PCR. In addition, the study assessed the genetic diversity of the identified pathogens. ResultsIxodes ricinus was the most prevalent tick species, with varying infestation rates across various body parts. Tick species and feeding times differed between Novi Sad and Skopje. TBPs were prevalent, with Rickettsia spp. dominant in Skopje and a mix including Rickettsia aeschlimannii, Rickettsia monacensis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Borrelia afzelii in Novi Sad. Subclinical bacteremia occurred in 8.06% of cases, mostly involving Anaplasma spp. Clinical manifestations, primarily local hypersensitivity reactions, were observed in six patients. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed R. aeschlimannii and R. monacensis identity, highlighting genetic differences in gltA gene sequences. ConclusionsThis study sheds light on the prevalence and diversity of TBPs in tick-infested individuals from Serbia and North Macedonia, contributing valuable insights into the epidemiology of TBDs in the Balkan region.

Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system

Abstract. Evaluating the risk of lightning strikes to a particular structure typically involves adhering to the guidance outlined in IEC 62305-2. Among the multitude of factors influencing the overall risk, flash density emerges as a crucial parameter. According to its definition, each flash is assigned only one contact point to ground. Nevertheless, it is well known that, on average, flashes exhibit multiple ground termination points as shown by high-speed camera observations. In this research, lightning data collected by the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID) network are utilized in combination with a ground strike point (GSP) algorithm that aggregates individual strokes within a flash into ground strike points. This approach enables the examination of spatio-temporal patterns of GSPs across Europe throughout a decade, spanning from 2013 to 2022. Average GSP densities exhibit variations across the European continent, mirroring the observed patterns in flash densities. The highest densities are concentrated along the Adriatic Sea and the western Balkan region, reaching peak values of up to 8.5 GSPs km−2 yr−1. The spatial distribution of the mean number of ground strike points per flash reveals a noticeable increase in the Mediterranean, Adriatic, and Baltic Sea regions compared to inland areas. Moreover, it has been determined that the average number of GSPs per flash reaches its peak between September and November. Additionally, a daily pattern is discernible, with the lowest number of GSPs per flash occurring between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC (universal time coordinated). It is found that 95 % of the separation distances between distinct GSPs are less than 6.7 km. Lastly, it is worth noting that the presence of the Alps has an impact on GSP behaviour, resulting in lower GSP counts in comparison to the surrounding areas, along with the shortest average distances between different GSPs.

EU Macro-Regional Strategy in the Adriatic and Ionian Region: A Territorial Perspective on the EU Enlargement Policy

ABSTRACT Policies of territorial cooperation, including macro-regional strategies, have been a crucial component in the making of the EU space, and constitute an element of the approach adopted by the Union towards its neighbouring countries. Based on the results of in-depth interviews with 37 stakeholders from different countries and EU institutions, the article explores the potentialities and limits of the European Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region (EUSAIR) to contribute to the EU enlargement towards the Western Balkan countries. Despite the limits that still hinder the full potential of the strategy, we argue that a de-centred perspective may contribute to overcoming the stalemate of the enlargement process, as long as the potentiality of a territorial approach is fully recognized and boosted.

Welcome to the forest theatre: Unveiling a Balkan refugium through paleoart

This paper presents an artistic paleolandscape experiment based primarily on recent palynological data from the Paleolithic site of Pešturina, in the Central Balkans of Serbia. These data are integrated into the general knowledge of flora and vegetation changes in the Balkans and southern Carpathians obtained through other paleobotanical sequences, especially pollen records from lake sediments. The paleoartistic proposal includes several drawing attempts at different geographic scales with an emphasis on plant taxa and their position within glacial refugia. The contrast with the interglacial situation is also illustrated, but the work especially focuses on the concept of long-term refugia and the altitudinal shifts of steppes, conifers, and broad-leaf trees. An ecological and biogeographical discussion accompanies the illustrations, highlighting the insurmountable methodological limitations and the challenges that pose obstacles to the progress of palynology as a technique for paleoenvironmental reconstruction at the spatial scale. The structure of the paper aims to serve as a guiding example for the teaching and scientific dissemination of paleosciences, from a conservationist perspective that is much needed in the current scenario of global change and biodiversity crisis.

Spatiotemporal variability and underlying large‐scale atmospheric mechanisms causing the change in the Black Sea surface temperature and associated extreme precipitation events in the northeastern of Turkiye

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) has an important local and remote influence on global climate through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture. As a result of climate forcing, significant changes occur in the SSTs, which result in many natural disasters such as supercharged storms, higher wind speeds, heavier precipitation and flooding. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and underlying atmospheric mechanisms of the Black Sea (BLS) surface temperature. For this purpose, National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) high‐resolution SST data (0.25°), which were verified with buoy observations, were used for the period 1982–2021. To investigate the circulation impacts, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) phases and SSTs of the western BLS (WBLS) and eastern BLS (EBLS) was analysed. According to the results, SST values increased from 1.64°C (in winter) to 2.52°C (in summer) during the 40‐year period. Significant SST increases are shown in the EBLS during the summer and fall months. Statistically significant negative correlations (p < 0.05) were found between EA/WR and winter (r = −0.57) and summer (r = −0.56) SSTs in the EBLS. During winter, surface high located in the eastern Anatolia causes southerly winds, which blows from the terrestrial areas to the EBLS and result in above‐normal SST values. During summer (under negative EA/WR phases), the Azores high‐pressure centre extends to the Balkan Peninsula and WBLS and as a consequence, a significant amount of moisture associated with high sea surface temperature (>27°C, above‐normal 2.0°C) develops low‐level moisture convergence. Proper synoptic conditions, strong instability conditions between the surface and upper levels, and orographic forcing enable the occurrence of convective cloud cells. The movement of these cells to the northeastern part of Turkiye by strong northwesterly winds causes extreme precipitation and associated flash‐flood events in a limited area where land–sea interaction occurs (i.e., Artvin, Rize and Hopa provinces of Turkiye).

More than floors and domes – contexts around ovens in the late neolithic of the Central Balkans

Even though ovens are the most prominent feature in the Vinča culture houses, they have often been neglected in the archaeological publications. Usually, only the information about their location or number of floors is provided, but more detailed descriptions are missing. This is also influenced by their poor preservation in the archaeological record, as parts of their upper structure are often missing. But, although fully preserved ovens represent quite a rarity, contexts surrounding them are usually filled with different categories of artefacts and architectural features. These complex contexts that include ovens, offer plethora of information about different socio-economic phenomena in the Late Neolithic of the Central Balkans. Therefore, ovens should be perceived as more than just fire installations for food processing and house heating, as they can offer insight into household organization and symbolic aspects of the Neolithic life. Additionally, ovens located in the outdoor spaces can provide information about settlement organization and social dynamics on a larger scale. In this paper, different contexts around ovens are presented and interpreted – from functional, economic, social, and symbolic perspective.

Courtship, Honeymoon, and Stabilisation? Military Expenditures of New NATO Member Countries Before and After the 1999–2020 Enlargements

ABSTRACT As a result of the 1999, 2004, 2009, 2017 and 2020 enlargements, the number of NATO members increased from 16 to 30, with the alliance including 14 new countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Southern and Eastern Europe. The different times at which individual countries joined the alliance allow assessing the effect of the accession process and the accession itself on the long- and short-run level of military expenditures of the countries involved. By using the difference in differences method in this article, it has been demonstrated that in a period of 1-3 years prior to the accession the military expenditures of countries applying for the alliance membership are significantly higher by approx. 0.1-0.2 percentage points of the GDP. In the years following the accession to the alliance, military expenditures level out as the increases of military expenditures are statistically insignificant. An increase in military expenditures prior to the accession is more pronounced in the Balkan states than in the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank. Estimation results suggest that being a member of the alliance has a positive effect on the level of military expenditures, which constitutes an argument in favour of a lack of the free-riding among new NATO countries.

Phylogeographic Relationships Reveal the Origin of an Introduced Population of the Dalmatian Algyroides (Reptilia: Lacertidae) into Southern Italy

The genetic structure and dispersal dynamics of reptile populations are profoundly influenced by natural processes and human activities. While natural dispersal is shaped by species’ characteristics and paleogeographical features, human-mediated translocations have become increasingly prevalent, posing ecological challenges. Mitochondrial genetic markers have been pivotal in untangling invasion pathways for various species. Our study focuses on the Dalmatian Algyroides, Algyroides nigropunctatus (Duméril & Bibron, 1839), a lizard species endemic to the Balkan Peninsula, where recent observations in the Apulian region of Italy suggest an introduced population. Genetic analyses employing two mtDNA markers (16S and ND4 genes) elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of the Dalmatian Algyroides and trace the geographic origin of the introduced population. Our findings reveal areas in western Greece and southwestern Albania as the most probable areas of the source population, while we identify two previously undetected geographical lineages in the native range, highlighting the complex evolutionary history of the species in the region. Additionally, indications of potential glacial refugia and post-glacial dispersal patterns shed more light on the species’ demographic dynamics.

Genetic variability of Roma population in Serbia: The perspective from autosomal STR markers.

Genetic variability of Roma population was shaped by the strong influence of genetic drift and gene flow during the migrations from their ancestral homeland in Indian subcontinent towards Europe. In addition, social stigmatization in many European countries, as a consequence of different cultural heritage and social practices, induced further genetic differentiation and sub structuring within the population. Although many populations genetic studies on European Roma were carried out, the genetic structure of the Serbian Roma has not been described yet, since only the modest number of individuals from this territory was analyzed. The main aim of this study was the characterization of genetic variability of the Roma and the assessment of intrapopulation genetic differentiation based on the analysis of 21 autosomal STR loci of 259 self-identified unrelated individuals from Serbia. Intrapopulation analysis revealed divergence of Roma groups illustrating the effect of the historical events after their arrival on Balkan Peninsula and emphasizing significance of the religious affiliation on admixture with autochthonous population. Genetic distance analysis showed the greatest similarity of the studied population with the Middle Eastern populations, while South Asian and European population were more distant. Our results demonstrate that Roma groups in this region of Balkan Peninsula do not represent completely isolated, but rather admixed populations with different proportion of gene flow with other Roma and non-Roma groups.

Carpinus austrobalcanica – A new highly polyploid species from the Balkan Peninsula closely related to European hornbeam

The Balkan Peninsula was the primary glacial refugium for many temperate tree species and contributed overproportionally to the postglacial recolonisation of central and eastern Europe. This is also the case for Carpinus betulus, the European hornbeam, whose main glacial refugium was in the Balkans. During our fieldwork in the southern Balkans, we discovered trees with a morphology similar to that of C. betulus, but differing in their rough, highly rigged bark and the shape of their fruit involucre. The aim of this study was to investigate the evolutionary origin and differentiation of these morphologically distinct populations of C. betulus from the North Pindus Mountain range in northern Greece and southern Albania using an integrative approach. Our study combined phylogenetic analyses of plastid and nuclear internal transcribed spacer sequences, amplified fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting, relative genome size estimation, and multivariate morphometric analyses. After establishing the genetic and morphological divergence of the aforementioned populations, we described them as a new species, Carpinus austrobalcanica D.Lakušić, Kuzmanović, Stevanoski, Schönsw. & Frajman, sp. nov. We provide diagnosis, description, geographical distribution, and conservation status of this enigmatic newly described tree species locally endemic to the southern Balkans.

Analyzing the Threshold Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: an Investigation of the New Member States within the European Union

This paper aims to analyze the impact of public debt on economic growth in eleven EU new member states (NMS) from Central and South-Eastern Europe for the period 2000-2019. More specifically, we investigate if there is evidence of a non-linear (quadratic) relationship in this group of countries. Having in mind different economic and financial development, historical connections, and geographical proximity, we split them into three more homogenous groups: Balkan countries (BAL-4), Baltic countries (B-3), and Visegrad countries (VIS-4). The results of our study in all models indicate a statistically significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. The results across all models show a significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. Further, the calculated debt-to-GDP turning point, where the positive effect of accumulated public debt inverts into a negative effect, is roughly between 42.7%-58% of GDP, dependent on which sub-group we have analyzed. In general, the research may contribute to a better understanding of the problem of high public debt and its effect on economic activity in the new EU.

Amateurism as a way of improving the cultural activity of preschool institutions in the Balkan countries

Regarding the fact that amateurism is widely represented in all Balkan countries, that it is aimed primarily at children and young people and at nurturing the traditional forms of the intangible culture of the people, which are diverse and autochthonous, the paper analyzes the characteristics of amateurism and the richness of the cultural diversity of the folklore heritage in the Balkan countries. Attention focus is on other components of amateurism as well, especially in terms of the benefits of dealing with folklore and the ways of functioning of amateur organizations in the Balkans.

The current knowledge about the distribution of Portulaca species (Portulacaceae) within the Balkan Peninsula

This study addresses the complex taxonomy and distribution of the genus Portulaca L. (Portulacaceae) within the Balkans, focusing on the often-debated species composition and distribution patterns in the P. oleracea aggregate. Our research aims to resolve this ambiguity by addressing two key questions: 1) Which Portulaca taxa are present in the Balkans, and 2) What is the current distribution of these taxa here? To achieve this, we conducted literature reviews, seed collection, species identification using micromorphological characteristics, and distribution analysis. Our findings reveal the presence of four distinct species in the Balkans: P. oleracea agg., P. grandiflora, P. pilosa and P. umbraticola. Additionally, within the P. oleracea complex, twelve microspecies have been identified, primarily differentiated based on seed micromorphology. Besides, five species (P. daninii, P. granulato-stellulata, P. rausii, P. sardoa, and P. trituberculata) have been documented in Montenegro, and one species (P. nitida) – in Slovenia for the first time. This study provides a valuable contribution to the botanical knowledge of the Balkan Peninsula, offering the recommendations for future studies of the P. oleracea complex for the solution of the taxonomic puzzle in this aggregate.

Romanians and Bulgarians at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. Political assassinations, border incidents and the attempted anarchist/terrorist plot against King Carol I (1900-1901)

At the beginning of 1900, Romanian-Bulgarian relations were very tense, being fuelled by both the incidents at the Southern border and the attacks that took place on the Romanian territory, thus, on the agenda of the Romanian politicians, the problem of the Aromanians from the Balkan Peninsula and Macedonia, the province coveted by Bulgarians, Greeks and Serbs, where comitagii gangs, the antarti and the cetnic fought both for the liberation of the countrymen from Ottoman rule and with the Turkish troops. In this context, assassination came to be used as a weapon against opponents, being present in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece.At the end of the 19th century, Romanian society was suddenly awakened to reality, facing the consequences of the barbaric manner in which one of these revolutionary secret committees acted, whose anarchist subcommittee was established in Bucharest – nowadays we frequently use the phrase terrorist cell for something similar. Thus, it received the mission to commit several bombings on the Romanian territory, as well as the assassination of King Carol I and Romanian dignitaries, while, at the Southern border, the Romanian border guards reported daily incidents at the common border whose purpose was to destabilize and maintain a tense state on the conventional demarcation line between Romania and Bulgaria.

Analysis of Albania’s Trade Direction: Is the Open Balkan a New Center of Gravity?

Trade is considered one of the main drivers of a country’s economic growth and development. Therefore, a successful analysis that identifies the bilateral trade flows, their determinants, and the regional integration costs and benefits opens new horizons for international trade perspectives. This study examines the effects of new and existing regional agreements on the international trade patterns of Western Balkan countries based on the Albanian case. In this regard, an extended trade gravity model is applied with a panel data set of trade flows between Albania and 43 of its regional strategic partners during the period of 2008 to 2022. This work considers two different similarity indexes to explain the effect of the economic structures of partner countries on their trade volumes: the relative factor endowment and the absolute factor endowment. The first is used to test the Linder Hypothesis, and the latter is used to test the effect of similarity in economic size between trading partners. Empirical results indicate that the effect of the selected explanatory variables, such as transportation costs, economic size, economic strength, exchange rate, and their relative as well as absolute endowment, is within expectations. Unexpectedly, the domestic economic size and strength are found to be insignificant in explaining the import flows and inversely proportional to the exports of Albania. Finally, it is indicated that trade flows are clearly dependent on traditional ties rather than on new incentives like the Open Balkan, which cannot offer a new regional center of gravity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the gravity of the Open Balkan initiative has been tested for one of the participating countries. The study concludes that while the Open Balkan initiative shows potential, the Berlin Process remains a more reliable path toward EU integration for Albania.

Mapping the path to excellence: Evaluation of the diagnostic and treatment tools for invasive fungal infections in the balkans

BackgroundIn the Balkans, rising concerns about invasive fungal infections over the past decade stem from various factors. Primarily, there has been a notable uptick in immunocompromised individuals, including those with chronic illnesses like immunological and hematological diseases. Thus, it is essential to assess the region's laboratory capabilities and the availability of antifungals. This evaluation is vital for gauging the preparedness to diagnose and treat fungal infections effectively, thus minimizing their public health impact. MethodsData were collected via an online questionnaire targeting healthcare professionals specializing in relevant fields across diverse healthcare settings in Balkan countries. The survey covered various aspects, including diagnostic methods, imaging techniques, and available antifungal armamentarium. ResultsResponses were obtained from 50 institutions across the Balkans. While conventional diagnostic methods like microscopy (96 %) and culture (100 %) diagnostics were widely available, access to newer diagnostic tools such as molecular assays (61 %) were limited, often relying on outsourced services. Imaging modalities like ultrasound (100 %) and CT scans (93 %) were universally accessible. A variety of antifungal drugs were available, including amphotericin B formulations (80 %), echinocandins (79 %), and triazoles (100 %). However, access to newer agents like posaconazole (62 %) and isavuconazole (45 %) was inconsistent. Therapeutic drug monitoring (53 %) services were also limited. ConclusionThe study underscores the need for equitable access to diagnostic facilities and antifungal treatments across healthcare settings in the Balkan geographic region. Improving access to molecular diagnostic tools and essential antifungal drugs, as well as implementing therapeutic drug monitoring, would optimize the management of fungal infections in the region.

Does a country’s sovereign credit rating drive capital inflows into emerging European markets? Evidence from Balkan region

This study investigates the impact of sovereign credit ratings on capital inflows and their composition for emerging European economies in the Balkan region. This study sheds light on this nexus by selecting Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, and Slovenia between 2006-2018 using panel data analysis. The estimation results underscore that a sovereign credit rating is a significant driver of capital inflows, and a decline in sovereign credit risk leads to increased foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows. Furthermore, the estimation results demonstrate the importance of the country’s specific pull factors and reveal that a country characterized by a larger market size, better institutional quality, a stable macroeconomic environment, and a more developed financial market could attract more capital inflows. Moreover, the results highlight that global risk and liquidity push factors have a significant effect on driving cross-border capital inflows into the Balkan economies. The findings suggest that policymakers should reduce sovereign credit risks and increase the country’s absorptive capacity and competitiveness in order to attract more capital inflows to the investigated Balkan countries.

Assessment of radiological hazards of soils from the city of Bitola (Macedonia) and its environs

ABSTRACT To establish the radioactivity level of soils and assess the associated radiological impact on residents, 58 samples from the town of Bitola and its environs were collected. After conducting gross alpha and gross beta measurements with a gas-flow proportional counter as a preliminary screening test, subsequent gamma-spectrometry measurements reveal the presence of 40K, 226Ra, 232Th, and 137Cs in the soil samples as radionuclides with the highest impact. The absorbed gamma dose rate, the annual effective dose, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, gamma index, excess lifetime cancer risk, and annual gonadal dose were calculated using the obtained activity concentrations of the radionuclides. Upon comparison with similar studies conducted in the Balkan countries, the obtained results for radiation hazard indices were found to be the highest in the region. Coloured maps were generated to visually represent the spatial distribution of the absorbed gamma dose rate in air and annual effective dose, clearly indicating the combined influence of geology and human activities, including the nearby thermoelectric power plant operation.