Trade Balance Research Articles

INFLUENCE OF PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY PRODUCTS ON THE RATE OF INFLATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

The optimization of production processes leads to an increase in the volume of output from the primary sector, as an instrument to protect the population from crossing the border of extreme poverty. The Republic of Serbia is a traditional producer of primary products, as evidenced by the realized surplus in the net export of agricultural crops. In the period after global financial crisis, the Republic of Serbia achieved an above-average inflation rate growth, compared to the countries of the European Union. In this research, we detect a significant participation of products from agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining to reduce the volatility of product prices. The purpose of the research is to prove the causal relationship between the rate of inflation and the volume of production primary products. The methodological part was carried out through the evaluation of the model using econometric methods. The conclusion indicates a high correlation between the production of primary outputs and the rate of inflation in the Serbian economy.

Estimating digital product trade through corporate revenue data

Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors starting from the corporate revenue data of large digital firms. This method allows us to provide estimates for digitally ordered and delivered trade involving digital goods (e.g. video games), productized services (e.g. digital advertising), and digital intermediation fees (e.g. hotel rental), which together we call digital products. We use these estimates to study five key aspects of digital trade. We find that, compared to trade in physical goods, digital product exports are more spatially concentrated, have been growing faster, and can offset trade balance estimates, like the United States trade deficit on physical goods. We also find that countries that have decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions tend to have larger digital exports and that digital exports contribute positively to the complexity of economies. This method, dataset, and findings provide a new lens to understand the impact of international trade in digital products.

Modelling the impacts of future droughts and post-droughts on hydrology, crop yields, and their linkages through assessing virtual water trade in agricultural watersheds of high-latitude regions

This study elaborates on the effects of future drought and post-drought conditions on the reliability of global breadbaskets. The study simulates agro-hydrological processes in the Nelson River Basin, a large agricultural watershed in western Canada that supplies food for over 170 countries globally. In temperate zones of higher latitudes, future climate change scenarios suggest that global breadbaskets will likely experience increased precipitation and higher crop yields (Y). This could be perceived as an increased export potential of food from these regions. However, projected drought events in the future can affect agro-hydrological processes, Y, and, therefore, export potentials during and following the drought events. Using a process-based agro-hydrologic model, this research examines the potential impacts of future agricultural droughts and post-drought conditions on hydrological water yield (WYLD), Y, and their linkages through assessing the net virtual water export (NVWE), the water embodied in the production of crops that are destined for export. The results indicate that long-term average Y, NVWE, and WYLD are expected to improve in the future. However, droughts will become more extreme in the future, leading to considerable reductions in Y, NVWE, and WYLD. During the post-drought period, the recovery time for WYLD is considerably longer than Y and NVWE across regions. The slow recovery of WYLD, following an agricultural drought, is related to crop water uptake, which can be controlled by optimization of the cropping pattern. The continuous loss of WYLD during and after prolonged and more frequent droughts in the future can significantly affect not only the environment and several economic sectors but also the irrigated crop production and export potential from these regions. This finding highlights the connections between local hydrology and global trade systems in agricultural watersheds of higher-latitude regions. Future adaptation measures, such as changes in cropping patterns, can preserve WYLD during and after droughts, supporting water and food security.

External Adjustment in Commodity Exporting Economies During Energy Price Downturns

ABSTRACT Recent examples of energy price downturns did not alter trade surpluses in commodity exporting countries. Economic theory contends that such developments may indicate that the changes observed in energy prices are perceived as permanent by the market. We perform a trend-cycle decomposition of oil prices and find that permanent shocks account for about 90% of oil price variation. The observed variability of oil prices attributable to permanent shocks may be explained by the increased financialization of oil markets. This finding is in line with the empirical evidence that the current account surplus is generally unaffected by permanent terms-of-trade shocks.

The REPowerEU policy’s impact on the Nordic power system

Energy system models provide us with scenarios for the future energy system, supporting our understanding of the impact of societal changes and adopted policies. To front-load the EU’Fit for 55’ package for 2030 and targets of replacing imported natural gas with renewable electricity, the Nordic countries could contribute by exporting additional electricity to mainland Europe. This paper describes a comparative study including five energy system models – GENeSYS-MOD, ON-TIMES, IFE-TIMES-Norway, highRES, and IntERACT, exploring two decarbonisation scenarios leading up to 2050. The scenarios involved simulating an additional 30 TWh electricity export requirement from 2030. Key findings include Denmark and Norway emerging as major net exporters, with Denmark covering over 60% of the additional export. The models predict that 76%–82% of the new electricity production will come from wind power, split between onshore and offshore installations, highlighting significant investment requirements. These results underscore the Nordic countries’ capacity to support the EU’s renewable energy targets, with wind power being pivotal. This research offers a broad overview over different modelling tools and their behaviour and provides critical insights for policymakers, stressing the need for coordinated Nordic efforts to maximise the benefits of increased electricity exports while ensuring energy system stability and cost-efficiency.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Terjadinya Permasalahan Pada Ekonomi Makro Islam Di Indonesia

Macroeconomic problems are complex and multifaceted issues whose causes include several factors. The main focus of this research is on the factors that cause macroeconomic problems both from an internal and external perspective. Internal factors include national income, fiscal policy, poverty, and inflation. Low national income can hamper economic growth and worsen social welfare. Ineffective fiscal policy can result in budget imbalances and waste of resources. Widespread poverty can reduce people's purchasing power and increase social instability. High inflation can erode the value of the currency and people's purchasing power, thereby worsening economic conditions. Meanwhile, external factors that influence the macro economy include international trade and foreign exchange rates. Unbalanced international trade can lead to trade deficits and dependence on imports.

Analysis of the competitiveness of Brazilian poultry-meat exporting states (1999-2022)

This study analyzed the performance of Brazilian poultry-meat exporting federative units (states), using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and the Relative Position (RPI) indices. Furthermore, the performance matrix based on the linear trend of the calculated indices was elaborated, covering the period from 1999 to 2022 with data obtained from the ComexStat database. The results reveal that the most efficient federative units in the sector are Distrito Federal, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul. On the other hand, the other states examined presented comparative disadvantages. It is important to highlight that all analyzed states had surpluses in poultry meat exports, which contribute positively to their trade balance. Furthermore, throughout the period, most federative units presented stable indicators, which suggest a consistent and favorable scenario for the sector.

Impact of Anti-Dumping on Chinese Exports to Countries in ASEAN Plus 6

ABSTRACT Concerns about China’s excessive production capacity prompt a closer examination of Anti-dumping Duties (ADs) as a tool for managing trade imbalances. Within the ASEAN region, ASEAN plus 6 countries, especially India, are emerging as alternatives to China in global value chains. These countries import a broad range of products from China, including intermediate goods, making it vital to analyze the effects of ADs on these imports. Using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which effectively handles zero trade flows, heteroskedasticity, and endogeneity, this study explores the use of ADs beyond traditional major economies like the US and EU, focusing on their adoption by less economically developed countries. The findings show that ADs significantly curtail Chinese exports, potentially hindering stronger cooperation within ASEAN plus 6 and slowing regional trade dynamics. This research serves as a critical benchmark for assessing China’s strategic role in global economic leadership, viewed with reservations by several countries, including the US. It emphasizes the need to further explore China’s interaction with ASEAN plus 6 partner countries, particularly concerning trade remedy such as ADs and their impact on regional integration.

The impacts of exchange rate on US adjusted bilateral trade balance with Germany under Brexit: A comparative analysis

AbstractThis study reveals the hidden dynamics of USA‐Germany international trade through a revised J‐curve hypothesis. It emphasizes the inadequacy of the traditional Bilateral Trade Balance (BTB) ratio based on total exports. To this aim, it introduces two new testing approaches based on adjusted BTB: the GDP‐driven‐BTB‐based J‐curve hypothesis (GDPJ) and the Non‐GDP‐driven‐BTB‐based J‐curve hypothesis (NGDPJ). The empirical findings advocate the necessity of these alternative tests, offering policymakers more informative results than the traditional approach. GDPJ is validated for 13 goods, while NGDPJ and traditional methods are validated for 10 and 8 goods. These results underscore the risks of solely relying on the traditional approach. By embracing the revised J‐curve hypothesis and alternative BTBs, policymakers can gain deeper insights into the USA‐Germany trade relationship. One interpretation is that, under Brexit, German consumers reduce their purchases of re‐exported goods more than domestically produced goods from the US.

A study on the evolutionary game theory of third-party governance of environmental pollution based on the quasi-co-owned relationship of pollution rights

The third-party governance of environmental pollution and the pollution rights trading system are two typical examples of modern environmental governance systems. In China, the quasi-co-owned relationship of pollution rights between pollution-discharging and pollution-control enterprises is the link through which to achieve synergy between the two factors. To explore how to achieve such synergy, first, the “principle of no-fault liability” is introduced, and the responsibilities of pollution-discharging enterprises and pollution-control enterprises are defined. Second, based on the quasi-co-owned relationship of pollution rights, a revenue-sharing mechanism for pollution rights trading is designed. Finally, a tripartite evolutionary game model consisting of pollution-discharging enterprises, pollution-control enterprises and local governments is constructed, and numerical simulation is performed. The results are as follows. 1) By setting a reasonable market trading price for pollution rights, a reward and punishment distribution coefficient, an improvement in reputation gains, and a saving in pollution rights indicators become conducive to the formation of cooperative relationships between pollution-discharging and pollution-control enterprises, for which the reasonable range of the reward and punishment distribution coefficient is (0.3, 0.4]. 2) Regardless of whether a government subsidy is provided, the optimal range of the revenue-sharing coefficient from pollution rights trading is [0.5, 0.6]. 3) When a government subsidy is withdrawn, increasing the market trading price and surplus indicators of pollution rights can promote the stable operation of the third-party governance model. 4) An increase in policy support and administrative accountability of higher levels of government and a reduction in supervision costs for local governments can help these parties effectively avoid addressing the absence of local government supervision. It is recommended that third-party governance enterprises participate in pollution rights trading to implement the main responsibilities of pollution-discharging and pollution-control enterprises and to set a reasonable revenue-sharing coefficient and reward and punishment distribution coefficient of pollution rights.

Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun (2014-2023)

This research aims to analyze the influence of exchange rates and inflation on Indonesia's economic growth in the 2014-2023 period. Economic growth data is measured using the Economic Growth Percentage (GDP), while the exchange rate is measured by the Value of USD 1 in Rupiah, and inflation is measured by the Inflation Percentage (General). In this research, the author uses statistical analysis methods to examine the relationship between exchange rates, inflation and economic growth. The data used comes from trusted sources, such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The research results show that there is a relationship between the exchange rate and Indonesia's economic growth. A high exchange rate tends to have a negative impact on economic growth, because it can cause a decrease in net exports and a decrease in production levels. Apart from that, inflation also has an influence on economic growth. A high level of inflation can cause economic instability and have a negative impact on people's real income. Apart from that, this research also shows that both the exchange rate and inflation have a significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth. This second factor needs to be considered in efforts to advance the economy and achieve optimal economic stability. This research provides a better understanding of the factors that influence Indonesia's economic growth. It is hoped that the results of this research can be a reference for the government and economic actors in taking appropriate policies to accelerate economic growth and maintain economic stability.

Menganalisis Dampak Krisis Ekonomi Terhadap Tingkat Ekonomi Makro

This Research Aims To Analyze The Impact Of The Economic Crisis On The Macroeconomic Level, Focusing On Key Variables Such As Economic Growth, Unemployment Rate, Inflation And Trade Balance. Using Historical Data And Quantitative Economic Analysis Methods, This Study Identifies Patterns And Trends That Emerge During Periods Of Economic Crisis In Various Countries. The Research Results Show That Economic Crises Tend To Cause A Significant Contraction In Gross Domestic Product (GDP), A Sharp Increase In The Unemployment Rate, As Well As Significant Price Fluctuations That Impact The Inflation Rate. In Addition, This Analysis Also Highlights How Fiscal And Monetary Policy Responses Can Speed Up Or Slow Down Economic Recovery. The Conclusions Of This Research Emphasize The Importance Of Appropriate Policy Strategies In Dealing With The Economic Crisis To Minimize Its Negative Impact On The Macro Economy.

Factors of Agricultural Transformation in Nepal

The fundamental challenge of developing countries like Nepal is the need to modernize traditional agriculture in order to establish it as a key sector to kick off the growth of other sectors of the economy. Therefore, this paper has assessed the present state of agricultural development in Nepal to identify the major areas for reform. This paper adopted review and a descriptive analysis of the available official data from various government documents and research papers. The analysis has revealed that agricultural growth has been slow and that the contribution of the agriculture sector to GDP is also decreasing. The overall investment in the agricultural sector has been insufficient, resulting in numerous other issues, such as high productivity gaps, persistent food insecurity, and agricultural trade deficits. A concerted effort is required to achieve an agricultural transformation in Nepal, encompassing all the major sectors of agricultural growth. It is unlikely that the burgeoning problems of the Nepalese economy will be solved in the near future without the radical transformation of the agricultural sector.

Determinants of India's cotton export performance: An empirical analysis

Cotton export performance plays a critical role in bridging the gaps in India's soaring trade deficits and helps in maximizing the overall gains from international trade. We examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on India's cotton export performance using data from 1990 to 2020. To assess the long-run and short-run impacts on cotton export performance, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been deployed. The findings reveal that yield and export price have had statistically positive significant impact on India's cotton export performance over the long-run and short-run. However, the resulting estimates of market size and exchange rate do have a mixed effect on cotton export performance over the period. Moreover, our results offer some important policy implications for the stakeholders including the farmers, exporters, and government to enhance Agri-product competitiveness.

Impact of RMB internationalization on China's competitiveness in financial services trade based on the VAR model: Evidence from China-US.

An increase in a currency internationalization levels can positively impact its credibility in international economic activities, and expand the effective demand and optimize the supply structure for the country's financial service trade. In this way, a state can improve its financial service trade competitiveness in the international market. This study builds a vector autoregressive model based on time-series data of China-US financial services trade from 2010 to 2021, analyzes the impact of different quantitative indicators of RMB internationalization on this trade from the impulse response results, and validates the conclusions using various inspection methods. The results show that the increase in RMB internationalization helps to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance, but with a significant lag. And this effect is heterogeneous in different dimensions, demonstrated by the fact that the development of overseas RMB securities business is more important for the level of RMB internationalization to narrow the China-US financial services trade balance. Finally, among the specific measures to improve its financial services trade, China should focus on developing the international competitiveness of the traditional RMB deposit and loan financial sector, while the competition in the overseas market for high value-added financial businesses must also not be neglected. Furthermore, China needs to implement more targeted RMB internationalization development policies at different levels in the future to provide high-quality financial services to the rest of the world and aid in the economic recovery of the world in the "post-pandemic" era.

Towards A Debt-Overhanged Economy: Causes and Consequences for the Economy of Pakistan

The reliance on debt is not only essential but also a key factor in economic growth of poor countries like Pakistan because of a meager tax base and an annuity of fiscal deficit. Trade surplus is a common tool that covers the budget deficit but twin deficit makes the economic conditions worst. The excessive borrowing can stimulate the economic cycle in the short run but in the in the long-run it creates the issues of debt-overhang. This timely study is an attempt to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics of debt on the economy of Pakistan. The empirical results (ARDL co-integration) suggests that long-run relationships exist among the variables under consideration such as Exports and Remittances have negative effects on debt, while other variables have positive effects. The Error-Correction-Model (ECM) analysis indicates mean-reverting behavior, where the dependent variable returns to its long-run equilibrium. Post-estimation tests support the model's assumptions. The Jarque–Bera test shows that residuals exhibit normal distribution. CUSUM and CUSUMsq tests indicate reliability and stability of the regression model. There is a long-run relationship between exports of goods and services (EGS), imports of goods and services (IGS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), net official development assistance (NOD), personal remittances (PRR), and debt in Pakistan. In the long-run, Exports of goods and services have a negative impact, Imports of goods and services have a significantly positive impact, Gross fixed capital formation has a positive impact, Net official development assistance has a positive impact, Personal remittances have a negative impact on debt respectively. However, Trade as a percentage of GDP has an insignificant impact on debt in the long run. The study also found that the impact of each variable on Debt is different in the short run. Overall, the study provides valuable insights into the factors that affect Debt in Pakistan.

Analysis of Economic Convergence in the European Union

Abstract The article analysis the economic convergence of member states of the European Union through ten main macroeconomic indicators. Employing a combination of statistical methodologies encompassing, such as descriptive statistics, multiple regression and ANOVA analysis, the research intends to reveal an updated outlook and also the big picture of economic convergence process within the European Union. Its results, analysing economic indicators, show the serious convergence trends between economies of EU-27 member states in general, but particularising, we can observe variations of the progress for each member state. Also, has been remarked that when the GDP per capita has increased in most of the member states, the differences have significatively decreased, these still exist. Moreover, convergence is discernible in inflation rates, unemployment rates, and trade balances. In the same way, the analysis pointed out also the differences that exist between member states, which have to be treated and separated, but together through inclusion policies, social and economic, to have as a final goal, the absolute convergence to be realised through shorter period of time than the actual trend. Premises, likewise, the realities that exist in the present can lead to a deeper and feasible convergence, even if it can offer the growing rhyme in comparing some states with others. In conclusion, the article highlights the fact that is much more than necessary that political strategies of member states individually, and also member states of the European Union to get together regarding aligning to the best economic and social level.

The Dynamics of Trade in Vegetables in Romania

Abstract The aim of the study was to identify current and future trends in terms of trade in vegetables in Romania starting from the analysis of imports and exports of horticultural products. The results of the research highlighted a significant imbalance in the trade in vegetables at the national level. The net higher values of imports compared to those of exports indicated that Romania presented an increased demand for vegetables imported from countries such as: Turkey, Holland, Germany, Poland and Spain, compared to exported values. This situation led to the registration of a deficit in the trade balance, which increased by 104 million euros in the last 3 years. The forecasts made for 2032 indicated a continuous increase in imports, reaching one million euros. At the same time, an increase in exports was anticipated, which will tend to reach 175 thousand euros, reflecting an attempt to compensate for the current imbalance.

Chickpea Production and Trade in India: Competitiveness and Trade Direction Analysis in the Global Market

The study examined the production and trade performance of chickpeas from 2001-2021. Trade direction was estimated using the Markov chain, and export competitiveness was measured using the nominal protection coefficient, revealed comparative advantages, and trade specification coefficient index. India leads other countries in chickpea area and production but lags behind chickpea productivity. India exported chickpeas to Algeria, UAE, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, and the USA (2011-2021). Iran and the USA have been the most loyal markets for Indian chickpea exports. At the same time, Algeria and Sri Lanka were the biggest gainers among major chickpea-importing countries during Period I (2001-2010) and Period II (2011-2021), respectively. The chickpea exports in India are still competitive in the global market. However, India had a negative trade balance as its chickpea exports were lower than those of imports.

Foreign trade of organic products in the context of sustainable development

Methods. In the course of study, the following methods were used: analysis and synthesis – when determining the place of production of organic agricultural products in the general industry structure of Ukraine, as well as highlighting the main advantages of the development of organic agriculture in the Ukrainian economy in the context of ensuring sustainability; system approach – when establishing the relationship between organic production and achieving the goals of sustainable development; general and specific – when clarifying the specifics of trade in organic products on foreign markets in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development; statistical methods - when creating ratings of countries importing organic products in the EU. Results. The essence of the global concept of sustainable development is revealed and the position of Ukraine in achieving its goals in comparison with other European countries is determined. The place of organic products in the general structure of agricultural products is determined. The specific features of the formation of demand for organic products in the domestic market of Ukraine and the factors that determine it in foreign markets are analyzed. The dynamics of sales volumes of Ukrainian organic products on foreign markets, in particular the countries of the European Union, are shown. The ranking of the TOP 10 countries importing organic products of Ukrainian production to the European Union in 2022 is presented. Novelty. The relationship between organic production and the achievement of the goals of sustainable development was established. The advantages of the development of organic agriculture in the Ukrainian economy in the context of ensuring sustainability were determined. Practical value. The analysis of the volume of trade in organic products in the context of sustainability allows determining the priority directions for improving the trade balance of Ukraine and its promotion on the path to achieving the goals of sustainable development.